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1  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Going into the final full week:Who wins? on: October 29, 2012, 03:06:09 pm
Romney.  Will go to sleep on time.
2  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT: Key Research: Romney crossing 70% on: October 24, 2012, 10:21:17 pm
THANK GOD SOMEONE POLLED UTAH
3  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY: Marist College: Obama breaking 60%, on course to replicate his 2008 margin of victory on: October 24, 2012, 10:19:48 pm
It's Marist, people.  In NY.  I don't even know why this poll gets done, or why anyone cares that it was.
4  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Michigan: Tie, Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) on: October 24, 2012, 10:18:26 pm
No.  It's cute and all to poll MI but not relevant.  If Romney wins MI it's beyond a blowout.
5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney vs Batman on: October 23, 2012, 06:03:43 pm
I don't know about Batman but I'm pretty sure Romney would mindf**k the Riddler.
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rest of World Would Vote Obama in Landslide, Except Pakistan. on: October 23, 2012, 06:02:35 pm
No one loves old white rich men from America except old white rich men from America.

Good thing we got a lot of those guys.
7  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Are Republicans ... on: October 23, 2012, 05:59:26 pm
About what? Who will win? No. Romney may have clawed his way agonizingly to making it a jump ball, and I suspect most Pubs in this hood agree with me.

This, but I'd add that some of the assumptions in some of the polling are rather suspect, in a way that could turn into a comfortable election night victory for Romney.
8  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who most benefited from the debate series? on: October 23, 2012, 05:57:53 pm
Romney won by every relevant metric.

Sure, he's an etch-a-sketch, but no one gives a sh** except for people who were voting Obama anyway.
9  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA, Susquehanna: Romney in the lead on: October 20, 2012, 05:34:14 am
The visit is about optics and OH proximity.  I think PA is in play but if I'm Romney I'm not betting my map on it.
10  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Maryland: Obama breaks 60 in WaPo poll on: October 20, 2012, 05:28:52 am
Maryland is a dying state.  The Bartlett gerrymander is galling, he's been a pretty good rep for that part of the state.
11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DOJ/FBI - Please Investigate This --- Tagg Romney Invested in Ohio Electronic Vo on: October 20, 2012, 05:25:36 am
Same old "scumbag investor" late-election kitchen sink attack...  Moving on...
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Should the Obama campaign pull out of all swing states and focus on Ohio? on: October 20, 2012, 05:22:14 am
Same dumb question gets asked every cycle.  Law of diminishing returns, saturation, etc.
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How will 3rd party candides fare this election? on: October 18, 2012, 05:33:36 pm
Johnson at 2% or so.  The rest nominal.  Johnson might sniff 10% in NM but I'd project closer to 6%.  Lots of ads, bumper stickers, etc. for him here, and his views are well-represented on local talk radio.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who will win the 2nd presidential debate on: October 12, 2012, 03:18:18 pm
Mostly a tie, but I think it will bake in Romney's gains.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Jill Stein vs Gary Johnson map on: October 11, 2012, 09:48:07 pm
Yeah, Johnson would totally lose New Mexico.  [facepalm]
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 11, 2012, 09:41:41 pm
No one.  Ryan was underwhelming and Biden was overwhelming.
17  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Sit down and shut up on: October 10, 2012, 03:36:10 pm
HOW DARE YOU MAKE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THIRD PARTIES

Yeah, +1 on the whole thing, more or less.
18  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads by nine on: October 08, 2012, 04:41:20 pm
...NM could approach being in play.

Oh come on.  Be serious.  Its like 45% white!

Hispanics here are not all immigrants.  Many families predate the US so they distribute more normally than other immigrant-heavy Hispanic populations.

Yeah, yeah.  No chance in NM.  I'm quite willing to believe Romney will win the election, but he'll do it solely based on whites.  That's his strategy, after all.

I don't disagree.  Wish he'd lay off the veiled racism, especially with his Mexican roots, since there's a very good pragmatic case for meaningful immigration reform.
19  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: A black can't win a close election on: October 08, 2012, 04:39:37 pm
Closeness would seem to factor in the racism.  I'm not sure there's a lot of people who would just say, "Well sh**, I don't know, guess I'll vote against the n****r."  Seems like that group would have decided, against, sooner.
20  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Livid at The Media after debate on: October 08, 2012, 04:35:52 pm
Bandit has one huge blind spot - he thinks much too highly of people.  But I think you and I know racism, and the white American voter, don't we, Glob?

I have no doubt that there are moderate/independent voters who will vote Romney solely on racial considerations.  I'd estimate they're less than the margin of victory, however.

What now?  The margin of victory is likely to be 1-3%, and something like 98% of your parties voters are.. well you know what they are.

I'm independent and voting for Johnson.  I'll leave the identity politics to your fantasy world.
21  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama has regained most of what he lost in the debate on: October 08, 2012, 04:34:17 pm
Pew would like a word.

Gallup would love to debate that.

Gallup is showing a tossup in post-debate polls among RVs (Pew is LVs), so no, not really.  Just a bit less movement than wobbly Pew is showing.

Mainly just making a rhetorical point.
22  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads by nine on: October 08, 2012, 04:31:54 pm
...NM could approach being in play.

Oh come on.  Be serious.  Its like 45% white!

Hispanics here are not all immigrants.  Many families predate the US so they distribute more normally than other immigrant-heavy Hispanic populations.
23  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads by nine on: October 08, 2012, 04:26:05 pm
Johnson will take mid-high single digits here, and has popularity among moderate Dems, so not sure what to do with this poll.  Obama certainly leads but turnout could shift a lot.  If Romney gets a little nicer on immigration issues (just being a pragmatist rather than an ideologue would help), NM could approach being in play.
24  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew apparently has Romney leading Obama 49-45. on: October 08, 2012, 04:22:49 pm
Pew isn't bad but they're high variance.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama has regained most of what he lost in the debate on: October 08, 2012, 04:21:21 pm
Pew would like a word.
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