Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2017, 10:53:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 27
151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 10:47:11 pm
Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

up to 6500 votes now in these two parishes. Trump is killing it in Jefferson
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 10:39:07 pm
Orleans Parish has so little counted that Rubio is still in second place there based on early votes. The Election Day votes will clearly be more favorable for Cruz. St. Bernard and Jefferson are good for trump but they're also mostly in.

What's relevant is that trump's statewide lead is narrow and he will be far from 50% in all congressional districts except maybe the 1st. trump has failed to get a majority of delegates from LA, which he needs to do if he wants nomination. The poor man must be sweating buckets after his defeat tonight -- and we know his body is fragile and can only take so much stress.

although LA and KY should be some of the strongest states for Cruz, but he's still not winning them, Rubio is almost dead and now we're heading to a map less favourable for Cruz (his caucus win in ME notwithstanding). Trump is running at a vote level virtually identical to Romney in 2012 and should cruise to the nomination from here (#nevertrump considerations aside)
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 10:23:52 pm
Anyone else think LA might have been a premie call?

Possibly. Twitter has been all over this. The networks called the state after a few initial results and the fact that Early/Abstentee votes showed Trump with a huge lead.

Election day voting has HEAVILY tilted Cruz while both Rubio and Trump have seen their support drop relative to early voting. While this signals (what the rest of the day showed us already) a Cruz surge, it also means that we may not know who actually won until quite late tonight.

Cruz doing very well in the Texas bordering parishes, but they are largely in. Baton Rouge looks a tie, Orleans still to come and the biggest parish, Trump has cleaned up in all its bordering parishes and I'd expect him to do the same in the city.

and with Jefferson county now in in KY, thats sealed that state for Trump
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 10:13:20 pm
Surprised Cruz is doing well in the Cincinnati suburbs and Franklin county (Frankfort), should bode well potentially for Fayette and Jefferson county and WKY is still out.

In the Cinci suburbs Cruz is pretty much matching his state-wide numbers, it just looks better for him because Kasich is running very strong here at the expense of Trump and thus in a three-way race Cruz is winning the countys.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It looks like the Republicans will have a brokered convention. on: March 05, 2016, 09:51:05 pm
No, I'm not saying that I think Trump deserves the nomination. And I understand that the contest has rules. What I'm saying is that those rules are fundamentally pretty opaque to voters, and what they'll see in your scenario is the party throwing out the results of their votes (which, as you note, are technically for delegates, but which they see as a vote for their preferred candidate). I have a very difficult time seeing how the party would come out of that looking good, especially if their best argument is "technically this isn't disallowed!"

The GOP's best argument in such a situation would be, "a majority of Republicans don't want Trump as their candidate".  


Repeat that argument down the line for all of the candidates who got less than Trump. What then?

/beats head against desk

Then the GOP likely nominates Romney, Ryan or someone similar else who has received the support of the entire party in the recent past.

Why is the idea that the GOP's nominee shouldn't be someone a majority of the party actively dislikes so hard to grasp?

Why don't we go back to the 2012 Romney nomination to compare the process. In 2012 they were down to just four nominees after IA and NH, Gingrich, Paul, Romney and Santorum. Over the first 22 contests through Super Tuesday, in which 4 candidates or more were on the ballot, Romney got an average 37% of the vote. He won 13 and lost 9 states. He only won 3 states with an overall majority of 50% vote share or more, NV, ID, MA.

This year, through 19 contests, Trump is averaging 34% and has won 12 and lost 7.

My point is mainly that its too early to be talking about brokered conventions and Trump is pretty much exactly where Romney was at the same point in the cycle.

156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Glenn Beck: I Would Have Stabbed Donald Trump to Death on: March 05, 2016, 12:28:23 pm
What a fool. You don't stab someone, just because you disagree with him politicly.

Et tu, Brute?
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney SLAMS Trump; first excerpts from speech on: March 03, 2016, 10:48:00 am

Frankly, while this a pretty forceful speech, I don't see how the establishment former nominee slamming Trump necessarily hurts him. Maybe it does, but I don't really think it will.

probably won't hurt him in the primary, but attacks like this sure won't help him win the general.

They sure don't like him, but would the establishment GOP rather have Trump nominating the next SCOTUS justice or Clinton?
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is tonight a bigger win for Trump or Rubio? on: February 20, 2016, 11:09:49 pm
I guess Trump, because Rubio is just barely going to squeak out Cruz, and Trump can play this up as a win, and because he gets all of the delegates.

HOWEVER, I would note that if the percentages hold, less than 1 in 3 South Carolina voters voted for Trump. Obviously he is still winning the race. But that is falling short of where he was polling. If Trump is kind of stalling at this percentage, then he isn't going to really coast to a victory.

Also, it won't be 100%, but anybody that was still clinging on to Jeb and the Bush legacy at this point isn't going to give in and say "well, I guess of the remaining people I am going to support the bully that obliterated my guy...." Kasich may get a touch of that, but the largest bulk of Jebbers is headed Rubio's way. If anyone disagrees, please walk me through the thought process of a Jeb voter who now supports Trump as of tonight.

You're probably right in that Jeb's supporters won't go to Trump in terms of narrative and 'establishment' v 'outsider' labels - but in terms of policy and positions Trump is one of the more logical places for Jeb's voters to go. On the surface Jeb and Trump both align more with the fiscal conservative, foreign-policy hawk, parts of the party and far less with the social conservative and evangelical conservative wing.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RUBIO WINS on: February 20, 2016, 11:02:59 pm
Let's dispel with this fiction that Donald Trump got 31.5%, Marco Rubio 22.5%, and Ted Cruz 22.3%. Marco Rubio knows exactly what he's doing - winning. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are trying to make South Carolina's primary more like the rest of the nation. Rubio wants South Carolina to be the greatest state in the union, but Donald Trump and Ted Cruz want it to be more like the rest of the union.

I think you said that already. But it was good snark Smiley
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Jeb's supporters go more to Kasich or Rubio? on: February 20, 2016, 10:19:51 pm
Obviously they align more with Kasich, but I bet they will support Rubio as trying to support the establishment against the nutsos.

When did Rubio become the establishment? As someone who dips in and out of US politics, my abiding recollection of Rubio is as the darling of the Tea Party.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Superdelegates are an affront to democracy and should not exist on: February 10, 2016, 08:29:56 am
Theoretically, how would people react if Sanders won the popular primary vote, but the superdelegates made Clinton the nominee?

Won't happen, superdelegates are almost a ceremonial thing, they'll swing whichever way the wind blows. Take 2008. If all the superdelegates voted the way they originally pledged, Hillary would have been the nominee. But huge numbers switched to Obama because he won the popular vote. That'll happen over and again
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's Rubio's path to the nomination? on: February 09, 2016, 11:43:06 pm
There isn't one, his constituencies overlap too much with other candidates - Cruz for the hispanic conservative wing, Bush for the establishment darling - and neither of them has messed up or has an issue with the experience tag.

Although the post-debate attacks and jokes have focused on his scripted lines, the original line of attack was his experience and achievements in the Senate, and he still hasn't addressed those. Rubio-bot can be laughed off but the lack of experience tag will be lasting. Obama had a single line to get past that - he voted against the Iraq war - Rubio doesn't have anything.

Someone above had the right idea if he wants to be President. Drop out gracefully, go back to the Senate, work hard, sponsor bills, learn politics and come back humbler and better in 8 years. He has the charm and image of a presidential candidate and I doubt that goes away. But at the moment some Pubs seem to think being a Fox news favourite is all you need.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 09:23:50 pm
Tonight I weep for my country.

its taken this long?
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close? on: January 30, 2016, 01:36:00 pm
Would like to think he will get slaughtered, but he understands his electorate and will change tack in the general, probably completely reverse his positions.

Maybe. Or maybe he really is a completely offensive buffoon.
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 08:51:59 am
Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Can't be far from it. Of course, 1970 and 1992 are also good candidates (strange how often the pollsters strongly overestimate Labour's chances). 1983 was terrible of course, but so expected that it can't have felt anywhere near this bad.

No, 1992 (in my memory at least). Really this election result was very predictable, we just allowed ourselves to be kidded by the polls that perhaps Miliband and Balls weren't as unpopular as we all knew they really were, and that losing Scotland didn't matter because the SNP are left-wing anyway. All a big house of cards and the cold light of day reveals these beliefs to be the fallacy we secretly knew all along. But a new leader, a miserable Tory government run by the 60 or so far right in their ranks, and a big win in 5 years beckons
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 08:47:29 am
I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

Well technically the incumbent was the Con+LD coalition, and as a group they did lose seats (and probbaly vote share but haven't checked)
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 07:00:19 am
Shamelessly copy-and-pasted from the Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-will-be-the-next-labour-leader-if-ed-miliband-resigns-after-disastrous-election-10234692.html


After a disastrous night for Labour across the country, Ed Miliband looks almost certain to resign as leader later this morning. But who are his possible replacements?

Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham is the bookies favourite, with odds of 5/2 to take the helm. His flagship policy of handing billions of pounds from NHS funds to local councils was reportedly vetoed by Ed Miliband, expect to see this idea revived if he becomes leader. But the shadow health secretary dismissed the idea of assuming the top position last night, when asked by journalists.

Yvette Cooper

Long seen as a favourite for the leadership, Yvette Cooper would be the first female leader of the party, should she be elected. The shadow home secretary and wife of shadow chancellor Ed Balls is a formidable politician. When asked if she saw herself as a future leader, she dodged the question and said: I really don't think we should be talking about this. We have just had an election and we've got a lot more election results to come.

Chuka Umunna

Despite only being elected in 2010, Chuka Umunna, who represents the London seat of Streatham, is another leadership hopeful. The shadow business secretary is said to have the backing of Tony Blair and apparently names the Tory Michael Heseltine as a political hero.

Dan Jarvis

The Barnsley Central MP recently had his odds of succeeding Ed Miliband slashed Dan Jarvis, the relatively unknown MP for Barnsley Central since a by-election in 2011, is currently the shadow justice minister, but is said to have leadership ambitions. The ex-Special Forces MP is seen as the New Labour option. Bookmakers put his odds of winning the contest at 5/1.

Tristram Hunt

Tristram Hunt, who is seen as one half of the new Blair and Brown partnership along with Chuka Ummuna, is a possible contender for the leadership. The shadow education secretary was parachuted into the safe seat of Stoke-on-Trent in 2010. Critics have accused the politician, who is the son of a peer, of waging a class war on private schools.

Liz Kendall

Liz Kendall is another comparatively unknown MP, who is a strong contender for the leadership. The MP for Leicester West is seen as a Blairite, who believes in choice for patients in the NHS and that private providers should be allowed to work within the health sector.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 06:34:02 am
Cooper for me...
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 06:33:30 am
Initial odds...

Chuka Umunna   9/4      
Andy Burnham   2   
Yvette Cooper   3      
Dan Jarvis      8   
David Miliband   12   
Tristram Hunt   12   
Rachel Reeves   20
Liz Kendall      16
Harriet Harman   16
Stella Creasey   25      
Lisa Nandy   25
Ed Balls           33   
Jon Cruddas   33
Alan Johnson   40   
      
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 02:32:12 am
BALLS LEFT DANGLING FOR HOURS, BEFORE SWINGING AWAY AND THEN GIVEN A KICKING

Amidst the dismal results this morning, Balls losing is one shining light. The unpopularity of the two Ed's crippled the Labour party, they'll both be gone now. Meanwhile this will make it a lot easier for Ball's wife, Yvette Cooper, to win the leadership. She is one of the shining lights of the party but there was the obvious fear that a husband-wife 1-2 would be seen as hugely nepotistic.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 01:22:32 am
Lab gain Chester and Dewsbury.

Which, just to point out for others benefit, are two separate seats, thus making the Tories hopes of an absolute majority a little less certain

ooh, and Hove (my old stomping ground, how on earth has this become a Labour seat again?!)
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 01:19:56 am
Lab gain Chester and Dewsbury.

Which, just to point out for others benefit, are two separate seats, thus making the Tories hopes of an absolute majority a little less certain
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:55:49 pm
Why is SW UK so slow in their count?

SW UK people are pretty slow in everything
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:09:37 pm
Poor Libdems. Blamed for everything bad in the last government and not given credit for the good stuff. When the truth may well be the opposite.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:35:21 am
Ipsos-MORI: Con 36 (+1) Lab 35 (+5), UKIP 11 (+1), Lib Dems 8 (nc)

Not sure about the Greens' figure.

82% say they are "absolutely certain to vote".



Talk about coming into line with everyone else. Now I think every poll has Labour and the Tories within 1 of each other
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 27


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines