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176  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:35:21 am
Ipsos-MORI: Con 36 (+1) Lab 35 (+5), UKIP 11 (+1), Lib Dems 8 (nc)

Not sure about the Greens' figure.

82% say they are "absolutely certain to vote".

Talk about coming into line with everyone else. Now I think every poll has Labour and the Tories within 1 of each other
177  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Which is the more likely as the next UK government? on: May 07, 2015, 04:50:28 am
I voted Labour minority in your poll, but a perhaps more likely scenario is a Lab-LD minority coalition. They will still need SNP votes to survive, but at least a Lab-LD coalition will command more seats than the Tories, thus giving them more credibility, and they will also win votes when the SNP abstain (which they will do on any England-only measure.) It will therefore be in Labour's interests to seek this coalition, if the election result goes as predicted.
178  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the Social Conservative Suprise Candidate in the GOP Primary on: November 22, 2012, 09:04:13 am
You could end up with Rick as an early overall frontrunner if there is a big field of candidates vying to be 'new Republicans' (promising to appeal to single women, non-whites, etc)

now this makes a lot of sense. repubs will be falling over themselves to appeal to women and hispanics
179  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Reaganfan's Reaction on: November 15, 2012, 06:06:07 am
Thats a decent article you write/quote. Just a couple of comments, whilst Romney and Reagan both identify as moderate conservatives, the republican party now just screams'extreme!' to everyone, what with Limbaugh, Hannity, Demint, Palin and so on. I don't recall 1980 that well, but I can't imagine the republicans were quite so Foxnewsy then. I have a no doubt a moderate republican party would have won control all three branches of the legislature this year.

second, the foreign policy gripes against Carter compare more to the gripes against Bush than against Obama.
180  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/Marist: CO: tied. NV: O+3 on: October 25, 2012, 10:53:55 pm
NV is still the toughest for Romney, he's within three with a reasonable (for one of the terrible three) turnout of D+6 vs D+8 in 08.  04 was R+4, so we'll see I bet it's closer to D+2 at best. Racial demographics at least look realistic too, unlike alot of polls where the demographics are manipulated to show turnouts similar to 08.  All in all Romney is within 3 there, I think NV will be real close, Mccain gave up on NV last time, Romney is not you won't get the turnout you think. Be real close.

CO, Turnout D+1, not going to happen, in 08 it was R+1 and in 04 it was R+9. Racial demos are also off in this poll vs 08.  At worst/best it'll be R+4 this time, Romney has CO in the bag. Romney by 5

I wish you'd still be here after the election but sadly I know you'll disappear and never return
181  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP VA: Obama +5 on: October 25, 2012, 07:14:16 am
Wow. Thats, um, wow...

Feeling a lot better now about it all
182  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you trust the Gallup Poll showing Romney up 7? on: October 21, 2012, 11:46:02 pm
'Trust' is the wrong word, its just one data point out of many, and is factored into the average of polls. IBD is showing the same in reverse.

can't say I wouldn't rather it showed Obama +7 though.
183  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: States that could surprise on election night on: October 21, 2012, 07:40:08 am
Doubtful it will happen, but imagine if Ohio, Virginia, NC, Florida are called for Romney, followed by New Hampshire for the win... and then Arizona goes for Obama to seal the election.

Now THAT would be a rollercoaster of emotions for everyone
184  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predictions with 20 days to go on: October 20, 2012, 10:31:22 pm

Romney 270
Obama 268

Could be. Some what intriguingly, that map would have been an Obama win 274-264 in 2008
185  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran Agrees to Nuclear Talks for First Time Ever on: October 20, 2012, 10:24:26 pm
Could be a sneaky Romney campaign thing -- reminding voters that the negotiations haven't happened (without making Romney or someone associated with him call for them themselves) and making the WH look bad. Probably not, the WH can achieve looking bad on its own.

The NYT is surely a slightly better rag than falling for Romney campaign guys passing themselves off as WH insiders?

I'd bloody well hope so...
186  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney beefing up Penn? on: October 20, 2012, 10:04:32 pm
There's a lot of upside to campaigning in Penn, as Silver points out. The EV's alone mean he can lose Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia or Colorado and still win the election.

Seems unlikely he could win PA and lose Ohio, but if the Obama campaign treats it as a head-fake and doesn't respond, he could steal a march on Obama there. Despite all the money they are throwing at Ohio, they can't move the needle because of an effective message from Obama. If they get in to PA before Obama, maybe they'll have more luck

187  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 18, 2012, 11:44:40 pm
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.

so not too big then
188  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: YouGov - State by State Polls on: October 17, 2012, 09:58:01 am
Its as if the debates never happened
189  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL: Zogby: Obama leads by 3 on: October 17, 2012, 09:55:31 am
Zogby you beaut, always trusted his polls........
190  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which Moment of The Debate Will Have Staying Power on: October 17, 2012, 12:35:04 am
In Australia they rather like replaying the 'my pension isn't as big as yours' line
191  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CBS 2nd Debate - Obama 37 Romney 30 Tie 33 on: October 16, 2012, 10:20:52 pm
Just getting word.

On the Economy, Romney 65 Obama 34

Down from 71-27 pre debate

funny how you can do anything you like with stats! So the point of debate is to change minds, and clearly some minds were changed towards Obama. Thanks for pointing that out Phil!
192  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: In an electoral tie with a Democratic sentate on: October 16, 2012, 12:34:21 am
If a tie happened the winner of the PV would be claiming legitimacy, which would create a big argument in either the house for Obama or in the senate for Ryan. Would be messy as hell
193  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: In an electoral tie with a Democratic sentate on: October 15, 2012, 07:18:39 pm
All rather depends on the PV winner I think as to who has legitimacy. Romney wins, a lot of pressure on Biden to stand aside and let Ryan take it. Obama wins the PV, Biden is almost obliged to stand in.

Of course if Obama wins PV, there will be huge pressure on house to elect him President
194  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Obama up 7 in Pennsylvania on: October 15, 2012, 06:36:48 pm
So this basically confirms Obama is up 3-4....

nationally, yeah?
195  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would you really like to see run in 2016. on: October 15, 2012, 04:26:24 am
Sarah Palin. That would be awesome
196  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 12, 2012, 08:43:51 am
Biden had good points and bad points,some of his punches hit and some missed, the laughing made sense some of the time and didn't at others.

But Ryan looked like a schoolboy, gave no reason to vote for him and was worryingly amateur at times.

Winning or losing doesn't really matter here. Ryan did not look VP material.
197  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew apparently has Romney leading Obama 49-45. on: October 08, 2012, 08:46:02 pm
Presumably people who responded to the poll did not want to acknowledge voting for a chump who got his rear kicked repeatedly. Shrug.

Yeah that .... got the whuppin' he deserved, eh krazen?  Please try to watch your language in order to avoid being perceived as using racist codings.

The only one with racist codings on this board is you Opebo. Repeatedly.
198  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney on: October 06, 2012, 12:27:38 am
. they don't even like the country for that matter.

oh do f**k  off
199  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH: Rasmussen: Obama +1 on: October 06, 2012, 12:12:22 am
I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

Again, I thought party ID was totally irrelevant to all of you. Where's Craigo when we really need him to remind us how stupid we all are?

But since you asked, sure, D+3 is feasible. It was D+8 in '08, EVEN in 2010, D+3 in '06, and R+ 5 in '04. So yeah, D+3 "makes sense."

But remember, you're stupid for talking about party ID. An amateur (j/k, of course Wink

This shift in party ID between polls due to Romney's standing increasing suddenly seems to be completely attributable to the factors explained to us by Craigo. So I don't see your point
200  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What more does a candidate need to do to lose a Presidential election? on: October 03, 2012, 07:10:08 am
I think he has done enough to lose it. And he will.
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