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December 17, 2017, 02:44:32 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will there be enough anti-Trump Senators and Representatives to impeach Trump? on: November 09, 2016, 06:17:42 am
Impeach him for what? silly thread
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama Approval, border wall, deporting illegals and the 2016 election on: November 09, 2016, 06:11:30 am
Even in the adjusted exit poll, Obama had a 53% approval rating. Only 41% want to build a wall with Mexico (and probably less want to force Mexico to pay for it) while 54% oppose. And even more stunning is that 70% want to offer legal status to those here illegally. That is higher than I have seen in any poll I remember. So what the hell happened? Why is Hillary not president right now?
I can't believe it either! Do exit pollsters just not pick up rural voters?

Before the exit polls were adjusted, I believe Obama had a 54% approval rating but 53 is pretty impressive as well. And I think it is safe to say a majority of Americans don't want a border wall and a super majority don't want to deport every illegal immigrant. And yet Trump is president. What gives?

That people are smart enough to not understand everything literally.

...or the complete opposite of 'smart'?
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did the Russians hack the 2016 US Election? on: November 09, 2016, 05:44:54 am
No thats silly (I really hope), but they've tried to influence it in other ways, and they'll be happy with the outcome.

Most worried about the impact on NATO, and his talk of potentially abandoning NATO members.

Its always been the case that an attack on one member that will illicit a response of war from all other members, has prevented Russian Adventurism. Russia is a mafia state, with a leader hellbent on reversing the collapse of the soviet union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century" (his words), he's broken off parts of Moldova, he's invaded and broken off part of Georgia, he's invaded and stolen Crimea and has invaded Donbas in Ukraine East killing over 10,000 and shooting down a civilian airliner in the process, he's daily playing brinkmanship games with the baltic states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania pushing them to see what he can get away with.

His bombers are buzzing the UK, he's done simulated nuclear bombing runs on Sweden, he's funding all the far right and far left movements in the EU, who are against the EU. He's trying to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy it. But for all his intimidation and brinkmanship, the NATO pact has prevented any real attack on a NATO member as yet, but now we have trump, who has many pro Russian political advisors, talking about abandoning the NATO pact. That is the green light for Putin, the serial opportunist who will always go up to and after the maximum he thinks he can get away with.

There will be some seriously worried people this morning in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote? on: November 09, 2016, 05:40:46 am
Are we potentially in a situation now where the Democrats have more votes for President, more votes for Congressmen and more votes for Senators and yet control none of these institutions?

Democracy!

You can't win a seat in Congress or Senate in PA just because you have a massive lead in CA or NY!

Of course, and states rights will be defended to the end. Although a 13-5 house delegation split for PA doesn't feel right either. Well it isn't right.

But thats your system. It is crazy that the majority of Americans can vote for one thing and get the opposite in not one, not two but all three seats of government!! potentially, not all counted yet.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote? on: November 09, 2016, 05:16:35 am
Are we potentially in a situation now where the Democrats have more votes for President, more votes for Congressmen and more votes for Senators and yet control none of these institutions?

Democracy!
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948? on: November 09, 2016, 05:07:23 am
Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

lol

Yeah, lol indeed, fancy thinking he'd carry Nevada!!!

Sad
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump supporters: Was this a F you to minorities or something else? on: November 09, 2016, 05:04:07 am
Race and xenophobia is a factor, but that wouldn't have been enough by itself. People were fed up with establishment Democrats.

Can that be true? Obama has positive favourables and Republicans control the House and Senate
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump supporters: Was this a F you to minorities or something else? on: November 09, 2016, 04:54:29 am
It is about the economy, or at least the economy of poor majority-white regions, and it becomes about race because 'outsiders' are blamed for this problem - immigration, trade, etc. Its not racism as such but its certainly about race, or at least about foreigners which comes down to the same thing. A la Brexit.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 07:00:17 pm
Fox doesnt show adverts overseas,  instead shows results and called IN, KY, VT 3 minutes early Smiley SC, VA, GA not called yet
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 11:53:34 am
I don't understand the long lines. Here in Portugal, i never been in a line to vote. Last time, i voted in 1 minute.


Ditto, never had to queue in England
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lady Gaga firing up the crowd right now in North Carolina with Hillary on: November 08, 2016, 12:18:32 am
Fox just showed a split screen of Gaga in NC and Mike Pence in Michigan, pretty amusing!
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Epic final inside Trump campaign NYT feature on: November 06, 2016, 02:16:32 pm
I guess that when you have a candidate who hasn't run a campaign before, and is outside the beltway, you get a campaign team team that mirrors that inexperience
38  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 06, 2016, 01:18:37 pm
What the hell happened to this thread? Huh

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.

No, we say that Republicans are dumb Hicks, and clearly there are more of them in Iowa than before Smiley
39  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538) on: November 06, 2016, 01:17:20 pm
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?

It means these ratings are largely worthless
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A mistake I think the Clinton campaign is making on: November 06, 2016, 01:02:53 pm
All I'm trying to say is that Clinton should focus on attacking Trump for being unqualified to be president and his scandals/insane policies, and she should also start to outline her positives instead of attacking him for being too anti-PC. Attacking him for being too anti-PC does nothing but energize his base and makes her seem substanceless.

She does though. Her campaigning line I remember best is the .."in 1995 Trump was suing so-and-so, I was taking children out of poverty, etc etc"
41  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538) on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:27 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" Sad

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Attack on Raqqa has begun on: November 06, 2016, 10:52:25 am
Hang on, I'm not sure they warned ISIS about this one?
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV station will you be watching for E-Night Results? on: November 06, 2016, 10:46:45 am
2008 watched Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, that was fun. 2012 watched Fox because its funny seeing them get all miserable and disappointed, that was also fun. Fox don't like Trump much either now, so might give CNN a twirl instead, I liked their coverage of the primaries.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread on: November 06, 2016, 10:38:19 am
When you look at these numbers, its striking how far behind the Senate candidates Trump is running, with the exception of Colorado where he is doing better than Glenn.

In the polls written on this thread we have (all numbers difference in Rep-Dem margin):

CO +5 on Glenn
CO +6 on Glenn
IA -26 on Grassley
WI -10 on Johnson
KS -12 on Moran
FL -19 on Rubio
GA level with Isakson
OH -14 on Portman
NV -10 on Heck
NC -7 on Burr
FL+6 on Rubio (Emerson)

How can he win when he is running 10 points or worse on Senate candidates across the country, many of those who are not favoured to win?




45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 08:04:23 am
Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals in TN that might be instructive to the election at large?
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 08:00:57 am
Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals that might be instructive to the election at large?
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A mistake I think the Clinton campaign is making on: November 06, 2016, 07:58:27 am
You might be right with the premise, you might not, its all a bit late anyway. But that poster is a disingenous, inaccurate, completely false piece of crap hitjob, and if you're the kind of person who goes to sites that publish that you're lost to the dems (and reasonable society) in any case.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A mistake I think the Clinton campaign is making on: November 06, 2016, 07:41:46 am
I totally agree. The Clinton campaign has failed in telling the positive story of Clinton and they have failed in attacking Trump where he is truly dangerous. Attacking Trump for being anti-PC is counter productive at this point.

At any point.

The only reason I like Trump is because he is anti-PC. I disagree with most of his positions (immigration, trade, some of his fake social positions...)


Hang on. You disagree with his policies, but you'll vote for him because he calls women fat. Thats an .... interesting position
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 05:16:02 am
Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.



do you know whats happening in Tennessee?
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions for election day on: November 05, 2016, 07:14:39 pm
There will be an equivalent of Indiana 2008 for Clinton. I'm still drawn to Texas............ Smiley
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