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1  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: November 01, 2004, 09:07:01 pm
Prediction

oops, i cant charge the map... Well 274(D) - 264(B) (the gut)
269-269 tie , (the map).

B: FL, WI, CO
k: MN, IA, MI, OH, NH


2  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: EVIDENCE: Dead Vote for Kerry on: November 01, 2004, 07:05:11 pm
With all the due respect for the law, considering the fact about obstructions in FL and OH by GOP members, the attemps to mislead voters (in black  and minorities areas) and all the other kind of intervention by the GOP, i don't know if the vote of her mother can be count, but even if is counted 1000 times still seems fair to me.

By the way, your mother was a beautyfull and brave act and i think everybody anknowledge that.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Several elections in Latinamerica on: November 01, 2004, 06:50:43 pm
Your summarie is too acurate, but as i live in Chile i wan't to add some precitions:

Related to Brazil it's true that PT lost 2 of most important cities in the country, but this was the runoff of the municipal elections in wich PT more than double the number of cities under their control. From near 200 to more than 400.

Tavaré Vazquez, the leftist winner of presidency in Uruguay, following the tradition of great latinamerican leaders as Allende was in his third attemp to get elected. In the last election (1999) get a broad win in the primaries but lost the runoff due to a alliance between the traditionals "rival" whites and reds (conservatives and liberals rightist, course). In that sense can be said that the political system in Uruguay even was one of strongest in L.A. was too old-fashioned as to work in basis of oposition between the oligarchs factions and finally a party that interpret a wide part of the population can win there.

In chile, my country, the coalition of President Lagos (Socialist Party -kind of Social Democratic-) win the elections 44% to 38% -of the alliance of right-. Yes, the right got Santiago but for the slightest margin (3%). The importance of Santiago was due to the fact that the leader of the right (Lavin) was it mayor. When he won in 2000 got more than 60% of the vote, and now his succesor fell to 48%. Seems to me as a Piric victory for the right.

More information about the election in Chile www.elecciones.gob.cl (it's in spanish, so, if you need to translate some or need orientation about  the name of the parties feel free to send me an email or see the translation of the CIA world factbook - Chile).
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re:Venezuela on: August 17, 2004, 07:46:05 pm
Related with the result of the referendum to me is clear that (like it or not) Chavez win fairly. That the reason of the landslide were populism, spoil-system and the the turnout don't change the fact that (as Carter center said) the result is legitimate.
5  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Media effects on campaign on: June 12, 2004, 08:10:19 pm
I write this because i need some help. I'm doing an essay in wich i relate the rethoric presidential campaigns (00 and 04 specially) to social clivages and independet/undecided voters (wich are a grey-area).

The media (specially newspapers and tv) are used to carring-out the message in wich i can study the rethoric.

Wich in your opinion is the function of media in the campaign and wich are the most representatives newspapers (i can't use t.v., there's no records)  to see the messages?

Your comments will help me to do a better job (and thus be happier) Thanks
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re:Anyone have Spanish election maps? on: June 12, 2004, 07:46:36 pm
The main spanish newspapers (nationwide) are:

El Mundo (the world) www.elmundo.es
El Pais (the country) www.elpais.es (left-winged)
ABC www.abc.es (right-right-winged)

El mundo is free-access and has special dossiers about the m-14 general elections, the electoral-map, districts, etc, electoral law, process, results,etc. And CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociales- Center for Social Research) www.cis.es is the main pollster in the country and has polls of before and after the election.

I remind u that (i guess u can be sterested)  general elections in Spain are based on D'hont formula for proportional representation on a district (provicias) base byases in favor of rural areas. The're near 30 districts.

The CIS-poll after the election confirm that the Zapatero's victory was caused in a overwhelming sense by the raise of tornout and NOT by a swing on the preferences. The lastest polls before the election shows a lead  of only 4% (inside MOE) for the People's Party.

Good Look
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re:April 23-25: Official Voting Booth for Regional Senatorial Seats on: April 24, 2004, 07:41:31 pm
Northeastern region;

i vote for Shapeshifter (NY)
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re:April 23-25: Official Voting Booth for District Senatorial Seats on: April 24, 2004, 07:34:34 pm
I vote for Michael-Z for senator in district 2.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Register! on: March 10, 2004, 07:59:40 pm
Even when i was missed because of study-requirement i would never forgot to register... so

I REGISTER
10  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Is NJ solidly Democratic yet? on: February 23, 2004, 02:45:26 pm
In fact NJ isn't solidly democrat as NY (polls say it's kinda tie, i don't think so) but definitively (as was said in another thread) they have to take NJ before they can take California.

We have to think, anyway, what happens with the vote patterns in the middle-class (and this is not and issue only in the US, everywhere when middle-class grow the vote patterns become weird)
11  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Democrats and the West on: February 23, 2004, 02:28:00 pm
John Edwards and others are fond of saying that the Democrats must win in the South to beat Bush.  I don't think this is true, nor do I believe it to be very feasible, regardless of the Democratic nominee.  Rather than fight a hopeless battle trying to win electoral votes in the South, would it not make better sense to focus on the West?  Gore won in New Mexico, and the demographics are changing in other states such as Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado that could swing favorably to the Democrats.  If not in 2004, then perhaps in elections of the not-too-distant future?

The fact that the press say tha's necesary to have someone form south to win it didn't make it real. As TC101 said they aren't morons who if don't see anyone of them in the ticket don't vote for it.

In the other hand even when i'd like to think that Colorado, Arizona or another SW state will be democrat some day i don't think that will happens until 2008, in the meanwhile it's necesary (as u know) to win just a bit more of EV to win, the west and east cost and the great-like-northern states aren't enough and u need then, at least a couple of states of the south. That's the fate of an indirects election...

(as a simpathetic comment i have to say that in the game "president for ever" i always win with Kerry in N.M., A.Z., and C.O. maybe a sight to future? Smiley
 
12  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Democrats and the West on: February 23, 2004, 02:17:57 pm
Opebo have you seen Edwards or Cheney on TV? ... no seriously coz the Edwards I’ve seen is hands down one of the best stump speakers and debaters in US politics at the moment... Cheney on the other hand comes across as creepy and corrupt he is the embodiment of the "dark side" of this administration in most peoples minds, which is why Bush would do well to drop him and appoint Owens (I doubt he will though)... James Carville has commented that Edwards is even better than Clinton on the stump and that certainly bodes well for him... in a Cheney v Edwards debate Edwards would come across as a sunny, reasonable and practical person while Cheney would just seem to be what he has always been a shady, and hardline political hack he’s the very embodiment of a vested interest... Its interesting that I have time for W on a personal level he seems like a decent guy however I disagree with him on most issues having said that when it comes to Cheney the mans a complete creep and should be booted out at the first opportunity gets Owens or Frist as VP and I’d feel much more secure with this Administration having said that I’d still prefer a Kerry/ Edwards administration…


As for Edwards being some kind of "scummy, ambulance chaser"...  he took on big corporations and helped out the little guy (that’s how it will be spun and its not far from the truth)...  back to the idea of Edwards v Cheney my prediction is Cheney gets beat but no as bad as W does against JK... IMHO


Yesterday i was talking with a friend of mine about Cheney and he tell me exactly what u did... i agree with both of u! Smiley if i have to describe Cheney with just 1 word i say: dark (like he have joined the dark side)

This guy tell me too that in his opinion there're 2 political trends in presidential election in the US:

1. People vote for the better of them (i.e. Kennedy, Clinton)
2. Peoble vote for the guy who's like them (i.e. Reagan, Bush)

That's what he said , i had to disagree, i like inhabitants of US and that's why i can't think that's them are like GWB.
13  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Kerry and the media on: February 23, 2004, 02:01:44 pm
When i start this issue i was thinking in the way the press treats the democratic primaries. But it's a good exercise think it in the way u propose.

I suggest u to don't worry about this, because the press choose their protègé between the democrats and that don't mean that their make a choose between Kerry/Bush. I'm quite sure that if that new appears in September the press would focuss on it. U know that to beat something it's necesary to have something to beat.

The way i think the press work is:

1. To choose between democrats
2. Then add emotion to primaries beating front-runner with something (Edwards)
3. And only when the democrat nominations is absolutely irrevocable ... beat him

So, u have to wait a couple of month to see the press beating Kerry, but i'm afraid that u'll see that.

Passing from form issues to contents issues (and that's part of another thread) if u think critically this debate about Irak....

Against Bush they said that being "the president of war" he was affraid to go to war and use his privileges to avoid it.

Against Kerry they could say that being a soldier who win several aknowledgments he become aware of the cruelty of that war and fought against that...

Wich of that is a worst accusation?

14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Register! on: February 23, 2004, 01:24:37 pm
I support the last ...

15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Cabinet on: February 23, 2004, 01:17:49 pm
I think five cabinate possitions is enough.  But it's your decision of course Mr. President.

Five is probably plenty.
Maybe:
Secretary of State
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of Agriculture
Attorney-General
Secretary of Forum Affairs

Why do we need Agriculture? I think it should be

Secretary of State
Secretary of Treasury
Secratry of Defense
Attorney General
Secretary of Homeland Security

and then if you want...throw Secretary of Forum Affairs in there too...

Agriculture isn't really nec. I guess
But I don't think we need a sec. of defense AND homeland security, we won't have too many threats to deal with on the forum Smiley

How about:
Sec. of State
Sec. of Forum Affairs
Sec. of Defense and Security
Sec. of Treasury
Attorney General

you never know, one of the independents may be planning a terrorist attack Tongue

Yes, there's a lot of surprises in the constitutional party platform but as long as i know none of them are dirty bombs or anything like that. In the other hand maybe Dunn steal some danderous weapons from Dimona, u never kwon ... better to be prepare . (j/k Dunn Smiley
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Cabinet announcements on: February 23, 2004, 01:01:06 pm
i forget ... congratulations 4 all the incoming members of the cabinet! Smiley
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Cabinet announcements on: February 23, 2004, 12:59:17 pm
Is better to have a bipartisan cabinet than a cabinet wich prettend to be red so i modestly suggest u to return to blue... and as somebody already said, your name looks better in that color.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Meet the Prez...(and First Lady) on: February 23, 2004, 12:52:09 pm
It's a serios and respecfull pic ... good 4 a president, it's like a mix between Danish PM (Anders Fogh Rasmussen) and the PM of Belgium. It's OK.

Ah... Congratulations to u and the VP.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Just some results on: February 23, 2004, 12:43:51 pm
An amazing turnout of 82.5% and the little abstention rate make likely the dems win. An almost partisan vote (expect by 1 R) but...

did the abstention express actually a vote (considering that most of the voters was partisan)? OPEN QUESTION
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:contstitutional party on: February 23, 2004, 12:35:07 pm
I'm really at favor of most of your issues and positions it seems moderate but strong in some areas. Pet question's are accute especially in welfare state/economic issues so we're waiting your comments on that.
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Exit Polling on: February 22, 2004, 09:39:12 am
I'm working when everybody sleep (that's the effect of GMT-5) and as i see if the current trend is this way then...

1. The dems get the job
2. MMN and GusNews fail in theirs projections og the winner
3. my hipotesis about the partisan vote was wrong because that republican who vote dems

That's all folks.. Smiley
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:ELECTION FRAUD BY DEMOCRATS on: February 22, 2004, 09:26:54 am
I just caught an unregistered person trying to cast a vote for the Democratic ticket in Missouri.
I hope this practice doesn't spread.
In Germany he would go to jail for one to five years for that

did you check the list? if he is not on it this one should go to thr supreme court........

As we already had discused in the constitution-al party forum we have not an SC yet...  but i can see the need of one Smiley
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:contstitutional party on: February 22, 2004, 09:18:28 am
Dunn,

Are you forming an actual party of independents?
If so, is it to be called the Constitutional Party?
What is your platform?

Pete

I do
It's independent party which now (temp) is called constitution party b/c I call for a constitutional convention of this forum so people here can do things properly by condition the majority agreed on
I call for the Party ingu. meeting 4-5 march (next thu-fri).
We will decide on issues, me I see myself (and my party....) basically as a social democrat on social and economic issues, midllke of the road about int'l stuff, pro-green on daily issues and favour strong constitution, powerfull parlament

Dunn,
about my latest proposal of issues to the platform it was seriously (except for the Chomsky stuff) i'm very intererested in your attemps for a third party.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:contstitutional party on: February 22, 2004, 09:12:36 am
Not really knowing where else to post this submission, I shall post it here.

Registration to vote
1. You must register two weeks before the beginning of an election to be able to vote in the election concerned.
2. You must have attained a certain number of posts, probably needs to go up from 18.

Presidential Election
1. By simple majority vote - as is presently
2. Contests every 2 months, beginning on the third Friday of the month an noon EST and ending on the following Sunday at noon EST.
3. President and Veep run on a ticket and may not be separated by voters.
4. No campaigning shall occur in voter registration or voting threads (in fact nothing other than voter registration or voting should occur in those threads)
5. No person shall be elected President more than two times consecutively.
6. If the President shall vacate his position, then the Vice President shall immedieately become President.
7. If the Vice President shall vacate his position then the President shall immediately appoint a new Vice President subject to a confirmation vote.

Supreme Court
1. Supreme Court shall have strength of 3
2. Each Justice is appointed for 6 month terms by the President (do we need confirmations?)
3. New Justices are appointed one week after the Presidential election.
4. Upon first appointment of the Supreme Court, Justices will divide themselves into 3 classes, each Justice having a term of 2 months, 4 months and 6 months respectively.
5. Upon the appointment of a new Justice, the SC shall elect a new Chief Justice. The Chief Justice shall announce all decisions of the Court.
6. If a Justice shall vacate their post for whatever reason, then the President shall nominate a new Justice to fulfil the remainder of the term.

Vacation of office
1. A person shall have vacated their office if:
a. They publically resign;
b. Dave "Board God" Leip expels them from the board.
c. Die (bit morbid)
d. Are recalled by the voters - similar style to CA recall, just without new elections.

I agree with most of your propposal (i know this isn't the place to express this) but recall option, wich i think may be used in a partisan way (as in California).

Always i wondered how the burocracy grow you gave me the answer... and i'm afraid that's maybe not enough people to full your institutions, maybe we can to do without a SC?
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Exit Polling on: February 21, 2004, 04:40:21 pm
yes, as MMN and GusNews says
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