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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Closest county to where you live that you haven't been on: October 14, 2017, 04:37:50 pm
As I have never been to the USA: Aroostook County.

European posters shouldn't assume that the closest county is Aroostook, Maine. It's true for Germany, but some parts of Southern Europe, like much of Spain and Portugal, are probably closer to Washington, County, ME, and parts of Scandinavia, like Helsinki, Finland, are closer to North Slope Borough, Alaska than anywhere in Maine.
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / cinyc for Lincoln Senator on: October 12, 2017, 07:40:46 pm
That time of year is upon us again - another Lincoln election season where nobody has stepped up to give the voters a choice against an entrenched incumbent because they think they have no chance of winning.

I am announcing that I will run against Senator R2D2 in the Lincoln Senate election. Am I going to lose? Probably. But every election should be contested, lest voters who dissent from the incumbent's policies literally have no choice but to abstain.

My platform is fairly simple - I want to limit Nyman's power and devolve it back to Lincoln and the people of Lincoln, wherever possible. I want Nyman to tax less and spend less. And I want Nyman to cut or simplify job-killing regulations.

I'd be happy to answer any questions.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you have BRTD on ignore? on: October 12, 2017, 12:43:08 am
I don't have anybody on ignore as a matter of principle.

Ignoring is surrendering.
4  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Is gerrymandering constitutional? on: October 11, 2017, 02:07:34 am
I don't understand how you could game it under your rules. You need to find cities split between counties that involve a county that can be chopped and still get a top score, and then that it makes a partisan difference. Where in Ohio would one find such opportunities under your rules?

It's not as simple as one county and one city. The preference allowed me to rotate a whole string of counties and I could use the whole city preference rule to avoid any penalty.

I believe the city of Columbus crosses into Fairfield and Delaware Counties.

But that's not how you game the system. You game it by splitting up a city like Cleveland into 2 CDs, instead of the more rational move keeping the city whole and splitting a smaller municipality.

Cleveland is not a great example since Cuyahoga is subject to the VRA. Keeping Cleveland whole prevents the creation of a CD where the black minority can elect their candidate of choice.

I think the Cleveland-Akron VRA district is on very shaky grounds (it crosses metro lines, for starters, and is likely losing BVAP, like much of Northeastern Ohio is losing VAP). The mapmakers may choose to keep it, but it might not be strictly necessary after the next census - if it even was this time around. It might not even be possible to draw a black majority district in NE Ohio after 2020.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Candidate Declaration Thread on: October 10, 2017, 07:38:35 pm
I am running for Lincoln's Senate seat in the October election.
6  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Is gerrymandering constitutional? on: October 10, 2017, 07:28:15 pm
I don't understand how you could game it under your rules. You need to find cities split between counties that involve a county that can be chopped and still get a top score, and then that it makes a partisan difference. Where in Ohio would one find such opportunities under your rules?
I believe the city of Columbus crosses into Fairfield and Delaware Counties.

But that's not how you game the system. You game it by splitting up a city like Cleveland into 2 CDs, instead of the more rational move keeping the city whole and splitting a smaller municipality.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WY-SEN (NYT): Erik Prince considering Barrasso primary on: October 08, 2017, 07:59:22 pm
Sounds like a great place to waste GOP/conservative time and money. I assume campaigning in WY is pretty cheap, but it also seems to be split among several media markets.

Most of the Wyoming media markets are dirt cheap, though - except the parts of the state that are in the Denver and (to a lesser extent) Salt Lake City markets. I doubt most Wyoming candidates make a Denver buy.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Office of Governor Wells (L-NY) on: October 07, 2017, 08:15:17 pm
Governor Wells-

In case you missed it, Associate Justice TJ has resigned from the Supreme Court. He was the Associate Justice for Lincoln.

You now have the power to name his successor, subject to confirmation by the Lincoln Assembly and assent by the President (or, if the President rejects Lincoln's candidate, a supermajority override vote of the Senate). See Article V, Section 1, Clause 3 of the Atlasian Constitution.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do people hate Andrew Cuomo so much? on: October 06, 2017, 06:33:00 pm
I hate Cuomo because he said that conservatives like me have no place in New York. That remark insulted the 1/4 of the state's population that self-identifies as conservative, according to the 2016 exit poll - literally millions of voters.

But that's not why New York Democrats hate Cuomo. They hate him because he's not liberal enough for them, despite passing gay marriage, a way-too-high minimum wage and the rest of the liberal agenda even while Republicans control the state Senate.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Lincoln Voting Booth: October 2017 (Draft Restriction Amendment) on: October 06, 2017, 06:07:02 pm
No
11  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Is gerrymandering constitutional? on: October 06, 2017, 01:21:18 pm
It is not the muon2 rules that cause cities to be gratuitously chopped (such an activity is penalized) but rather the VRA. Indeed under the muon2 rules, if cities are gratuitously macro-chopped, the erosity score tanks. Such a map would never hit the Pareto optimal frontier, unless "saved" by the VRA.

Causes is a little bit strong. Allows is more what I am thinking.

If I were to write the rules, cities would be the municipalities of first order that would not allowed to be chopped, even above counties. And yes, I have both non-political and political reasons for making that choice - cities are the most basic form of government that people elect, and the main basis of identity for most people, especially where school district line follow city boundaries. What municipality you live in matters. It would also have the practical effect of not allowing Democrats to chop cities to Gerrymander.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which city's climate is best? on: October 05, 2017, 11:51:25 pm
San Diego. It's really no contest at all. About room temperature and sunny for most of the year.
13  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Is gerrymandering constitutional? on: October 05, 2017, 11:40:37 pm
The Freedom of Association argument makes no sense. Why is my Freedom of Association any less impacted by a supposedly neutral map where I’m “naturally” put in a district with a bunch of Democrats who I don’t agree with and vote against, instead of a Gerrymandered map where I get either the same result or (by some miracle in a state like New York) get put in a district that actually elects my Republican candidate of choice? This cannot be solved, except by proportional representation.
Because what the Constitution forbids is for the government to single you out based on your political ideology. When your state legislature intentionally dilutes your voting power based on your party affiliation, that is viewpoint-based discrimination in violation of your First Amendment rights.



The government is doing that either way by putting me in a district with a bunch of Democrats. Whether that is under the guise of supposedly "neutral" principles doesn't matter. The effect is the same - my voice is being diluted by Democrats.

And yes, the answer is somewhat clouded by my view that no redistricting principles are really neutral and always involve political calculations of some stripe. In other words, there's always (allegedly) discriminatory intent. Even the Muon rules depend on a calculation that cities need not remain whole. That tends to favor Democrats, as cities tend to be Democratic, and being able to split cities allows perfectly legal abominations like the city of Chicago dominating Illinois' maps through baconstrips.

Redistricting has always been politically motivated, and always will be. How it is done is a political question that the courts should and traditionally have stayed out of, absent VRA issues. It's a thicket that the courts really should avoid falling into.

Unfortunately, my prediction is that Justice Kennedy will cave, and create some unworkable balancing test that will muddy the redistricting waters for decades to come.
14  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Is gerrymandering constitutional? on: October 05, 2017, 05:19:19 pm
The Freedom of Association argument makes no sense. Why is my Freedom of Association any less impacted by a supposedly neutral map where I’m “naturally” put in a district with a bunch of Democrats who I don’t agree with and vote against, instead of a Gerrymandered map where I get either the same result or (by some miracle in a state like New York) get put in a district that actually elects my Republican candidate of choice? This cannot be solved, except by proportional representation.

Nevermind the fact that there’s no such thing as “neutral” redistricting principles or map-makers to begin with. Every choice has a partisan effect.

But “Freedom of Assocation” seems to be the argument Justice Kennedy is most likely to buy, unfortunately.

As far as I’m concerned, a practice that is actually named for Elbridge Gerry’s political packing of districts in Massachusetts in 1812, and has existed since the First Congress can’t suddenly become unconstitutional in 2017. It just doesn’t work that way.
15  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Anyone else having new errors with the boards? Especially with read/unread on: October 03, 2017, 11:40:17 pm
If you are blocking cookies from websites by default, you now need to whitelist https://uselectionatlas.org, too. Otherwise, you won't remain logged in.

This may or may not be related to your issue.
This is not related.

Probably not - but my guess is that the read/unread thing is somehow cookie-related.
16  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Anyone else having new errors with the boards? Especially with read/unread on: October 03, 2017, 11:37:46 pm
If you are blocking cookies from websites by default, you now need to whitelist https://uselectionatlas.org, too. Otherwise, you won't remain logged in.

This may or may not be related to your issue.
17  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Results from Alaska? on: October 03, 2017, 12:08:23 am
if you can mention some specific results, UMaryland has a pretty good political data

There are scattered Alaska Presidential county equivalent map threads/results discussions on the forum here:
2016
2012
2008
2004

And there's a compilation of other Alaska maps (usually by HD or precinct) here, for example.
18  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Atlas upgraded to https on: October 02, 2017, 11:58:21 pm
I think that if you default to not allowing websites to set cookies with whitelist exceptions, you'll have to add https://uselectionatlas.org to the whitelist in order to stay logged in for more than one screen.
19  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Results from Alaska? on: September 28, 2017, 02:35:23 pm
The problem is that Alaska does not break down results by county equivalent, only by House District - and some house districts cross county equivalent lines. In fact, only the election day in-person vote is even broken down by precinct. So you can't really get a 100% accurate picture of the Alaska county equivalent vote. Allocating the early, absentee and questioned vote to county equivalents is an inexact science.

Technically, even a few precincts cross county equivalent lines, but you can usually tell where the people in the precinct actually live by looking at a map.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's your moderated posts to reported posts ratio? on: September 27, 2017, 04:31:54 pm
Still 1:0 - and I've somehow managed to post over 11,000 times here.

I'm still not happy about even having 1 reported. That's 1 post too many.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you know of a good data source for a US demographics data science project? on: September 21, 2017, 10:20:13 pm
One thing I read in college a zillion years that caught my interest, is that when a metro area gets larger than 400,000, it tends to have the infrastructure and offer services, that insure that it will continue to keep growing, and will no longer face the risk of having a substantial population decline. It would be interesting to see how that theory worked out, 50 years later and if it did not, why.

Many 400,000+ rust belt metros like Cleveland and Pittsburgh have lost population in this and other recent decades. I'd say no. I've been mapping historic population changes in CSAs and metros here.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 10:15:59 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.

As someone who has lived in Nassau County my whole life other than college, I'm tempted to say the Sagitkos Parkway is the dividing line on Long Island, but Route 112 is probably more realistic and an argument could be made for as far east as the William Floyd Pkwy.

The Sagitkos Parkway is a pretty decent dividing line - the Northern and Southern State Parkways end shortly after there (I guess the SSP technically becomes the Heckscher Parwkay to the east of it), and at least the Babylon Branch of the LIRR ends within. Route 112 would also take into account the main terminus of the Ronkonkoma Branch of the LIRR. The William Floyd Parkway is pretty far out, on the other side of a little bit of the pine barrens - and out of the urbanized area, at least on my map. I think the argument for that is tougher.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 06:29:29 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump on: September 14, 2017, 08:24:30 pm
Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled.... Smiley

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....

Johnson 765, Stein 282, Castle 58 - if my calculations are correct.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump on: September 13, 2017, 05:24:37 pm
Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.
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