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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was voter turnout so low in 1996? on: June 22, 2018, 04:34:46 pm
Peace and prosperity, an uninspiring GOP candidate and lack of drama.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was Clinton unbeatable in 1996? on: June 22, 2018, 04:32:41 pm
If you read Clinton's book My life, the campaign was focused on picking up FL and AZ from the start, due to healthcare and the aging of America.  He also badly wanted to breakthrough in VA and NC.  In the short discussion of Election '96 within the book, he was livid that VA and NC were lost in the end after he thought he had them just two weeks before Election Day.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was Clinton unbeatable in 1996? on: June 14, 2018, 11:38:59 am
It was a near certainty once Dole was the opposition, especially since Buchanan and other conservatives hurt his image in the Primaries.

Before the Primaries, it wasn't certain, but likely.

The only surprise is that Clinton didn't win by a bigger margin (both in the popular vote and EC) than he did.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Cherry Communications: Scott +3? on: June 10, 2018, 09:15:47 pm
If I'm not mistaken, Mack IV was up double digits on Nelson this time of year six years back, and lost by 12-13 points.

If the Democrats blow this one to a crook (and everybody living here know about Scott), then the FL Democratic Party really is as good as dead.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD-WaPo/U.Md.: Hogan holds double digits lead among all opponents on: June 10, 2018, 09:13:46 pm
I still believe this race will be much closer than many think.  Republicans have yet to prove to me that they can win a statewide in MD going away and their ceiling always seems around 52-53%.

Hogan may win, but I bet it's by <10 pts when all is said and done.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did New Jersey go blue so fast? on: May 21, 2018, 01:41:35 pm
Look no further from the swings of '88 to '92.  The GOP lost the suburban vote in a hurry. Since then, CA (for many reasons), NJ, CT, DE, VT, IL, MD and PA (until this past year) haven't sniffed the GOP column.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2000 Discussion: Who really won Florida's 25 electoral votes on: August 14, 2017, 09:25:02 pm
Gore
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Rank the factors in HW's 1988 victory from biggest to smallest on: August 14, 2017, 09:24:27 pm
1) Reagan's Popularity
2) The Economy
3) Willie Horton / Law & Order
         - Suburban strength
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Romney's Biggest Mistake on: July 22, 2017, 01:24:23 pm
The 47% comment and the elitist smirk that made him come across like a typical top 1% sociopath certainly didn't help.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What did you like most about the result of the 2016 election? on: June 30, 2017, 12:24:39 pm
The fact that suddenly, the Electoral Map looked a lot more interesting. 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: June 30, 2017, 12:23:28 pm
The irony of all is that MN is one of the whitest states in America.

Northern MN also has a big german population, which is typically Democratic too.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Dukakis perform so well in Wisconsin? on: June 26, 2017, 01:01:18 pm
The Populist image, which fit well with blue collar workers, especially amidst the farm crisis.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Romney underperform so much? on: June 26, 2017, 07:22:58 am
He was successfully painted (and for good reason) as a top 1%, out of touch tycoon who was clearly out of touch with average Americans and genuinely seemed to lack empathy.

14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD-Expedition Strategies/Hogan Leads Gansler in Match-up on: June 25, 2017, 02:09:01 pm
The GOP ceiling is very low in MD, maybe 53-54%.  Ironically, I think a third party candidate would help Hogan more than hurt him.

The problems? Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump. it will be the same problem that Linc Chafee had in RI in his '06 Senate Campaign despite high popularity.  "Do you really want a Republican governor with these guys destroying the nation?" It was NOT a hard case for Sheldon Whitehouse to make.

The same will happen to Mr. Hogan based upon the political environment of the GOP leadership.

I believe the Democrats win this one back.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TN-Sen: Corker, Blackburn statistically tied in GOP Primary on: June 24, 2017, 01:18:50 pm
So, we're going to replace him with that moron Blackburn? Wonderful!
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD - Washington Post/UMD: Hogan 41 - Democrat Nominee 37 on: June 24, 2017, 01:08:44 pm
Again, the GOP ceiling in MD is very low, maybe at 54% tops.  Add to that the anti-Trump factor and Hogan is going to struggle. 
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread on: June 20, 2017, 08:50:24 pm
Has anyone mentioned that if the margin does end up 6-7 points, which is fairly comfortable that the polls yet again, got it pretty wrong? This was literally supposed to razor tight. It could be, but if not, the polls yet again were brutal.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why don't people accept that PA voted for GOP senators in 2000 and 2004? on: May 31, 2017, 07:24:46 am
Specter won in '04 because the Democrats chose a nobody for their nominee.  He was beatable that year, especially given the primary.  Ironically, Bush may have helped him given that conservatives still showed up to the polls in mid-PA in droves and likely held their nose while punching the ticket for Arlen.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election night, six months later on: May 31, 2017, 07:22:45 am
It was right around 9pm when Chuck Todd took a look at Florida and saw Trump ahead by >140K votes.  You could feel and see NBC's panel deflate at that moment and the rest is all she wrote.

I did think Trump would take FL though. However, I didn't think he had a prayer anywhere in the Democratic upper midwest.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was the Democratic establishment so united behind Clinton in the beginning? on: May 30, 2017, 09:05:48 am
Three reasons that I see:

1) $$$ - the machine was behind her
2) She was most obvious benefactor
3) She was the "safest" choice and most likely seen to keep the White House in Democratic hands
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Do you think any significant anti-Bill Clinton played a role in the results? on: May 29, 2017, 12:31:22 pm
Other than the obvious '94 midterm landslide, Clinton took the Republicans and many of his deepest enemies, including conservative voters to school.

1) The easy '96 re-election campaign after he looked toast by the middle of '95.  Bob Dole looked like a sacrificial lamb.

2) He took all the credit for the economic boom (fairly or unfairly) from '95-'00, although there is evidence that the '93 Tax Reform Act provided decent conditions for the growth.

3) They couldn't touch him with Monica.  His ratings hit their highest during the story.

4) They got embarrassed badly during the mid-terms of '98 when they were expected to do very well.

5) Newt paid the ultimate price right after those mid-terms, as did the GOP leadership.

6) Whitewater never really bothered the mainstream electorate.

7) He definitely had the media on his side.

Cool Al Gore blew it in '00 on his own (w/o Clinton) by not simply touting the economic growth enough of the second Clinton term, despite the economy thinning in '00.

9) Most of the fist-banging ended up falling on Newt as opposed to Clinton during the whole fight.

This past year, the GOP and their voters had another indirect shot and they came through.  Do you think there was any residual angst against him, or was this really an issue against Hillary and a protest of the establishment and big gov't?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL- Chamber of Commerce: Nelson leads Scott by 6 on: May 25, 2017, 07:56:34 am
Nelson is always a target for Republicans and they lose every time.  If you remember, Mack IV had a summer lead over him last round and then just totally went away in that race, losing by 13-15 points. 
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who did ghetto white voters vote for in 2016? on: April 25, 2017, 07:20:33 am
Poor whites went to Trump and they were a HUGE reason why he went over the top in states like FL, OH, etc. 
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The State of New Hampshire on: November 26, 2016, 12:06:48 pm
NH is socially still moderate/conservative.  The Trump quotes about women may have hurt him there just enough to make a difference.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / If Jill Stein were asked, "why isn't NH being challenged too?" on: November 26, 2016, 12:03:39 pm
Her response is what exactly? "Well, um, ya...".

Seriously, what would her response be?
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