Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2018, 04:33:58 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 64
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does the Florida Democratic Party have a future? on: November 09, 2018, 08:30:47 am
Jeb Bush folks.  He was very smart, realizing the demographics of the state were changing in the late 90s and completely revamped the GOP's ground game while the Democrats were stuck in the Stone Age (and still are).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Thoughts about the results in Colorado? on: November 09, 2018, 08:27:44 am
Gardner will be a litmus test in a few years.  Weed, the major influx of young people (although cost of living is pushing many out of CO), and the major growth in Hispanics swung CO bigtime.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Was Gillum overrated? Will Democrat win with Gwen Graham? on: November 08, 2018, 09:12:31 am
He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

This was never hinted at because it would never happen. If you thought that then you're an idiot who doesn't understand how our government works.
I didn't say it would happen.  The "perception" though, even down here in Palm Beach was that the freeloaders would make out and someone has to pay for that.  By the way, I can near GUARANTEE I put more away every week than you do.  Take that to the bank Smiley.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How did Desantis win? on: November 08, 2018, 09:10:44 am
In this state folks, start talking about liberal economic politicies in a state that attracts people to move here because of the perceived lower cost of living (although it's changed), and forget it.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Was Gillum overrated? Will Democrat win with Gwen Graham? on: November 08, 2018, 09:09:15 am
I think Florida is just too conservative to accept a progressive left such as Gillum.
Gwen maybe a better candidate.

But on the other hand moderate Nelson lost too or maybe Gillum dragged down him.

Discuss!
Nelson was OLD, around too long and ESTABLISHMENT. It's the same reason Stabenow almost lost in MI (same class as Nelson back in '00).  Graham would likely have won.  The Democrats made the wrong Primary choice (think about the DE Senate Primary where Mike Castle lost back in '10).
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Was Gillum overrated? Will Democrat win with Gwen Graham? on: November 08, 2018, 09:07:12 am
He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did Stabenow underperform so much? on: November 08, 2018, 08:59:41 am
The ESTABLISHMENT candidates are having trouble if you notice.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Cruz have lost if Abbott wasnt on the Ballot on: November 08, 2018, 08:59:09 am
No.  The Gubernatorial race rarely LEADS the ticket.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did Bill Nelson lose? on: November 08, 2018, 08:58:45 am
1) Too old
2) Crappy campaign - no visibility
3) Been around too long
4) ESTABLISHMENT
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How did Desantis win? on: November 08, 2018, 08:56:13 am
1) The late FBI potential probe
2) The state economy is in very good shape
3) His policies rumored a potential state income tax (good luck)
4) The race factor (unfortunately) may have played a bit of a factor up north
5) Florida has moved somewhat to the right in the last few years
6) Economic conservatives in the big three counties didn't like Gillum's economic proposals (also unrealistic)
7) He BADLY underperformed in Palm Beach and Miami Dade where he needed to clean up.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Connecticut on: November 07, 2018, 11:11:09 am
Some states will just continue to elect the same party regardless of the statewide economic and political conditions.  How many more years of crappy Democratic rule can they stand, especially as the economy lags behind the rest of the country? I understand it went very bad for Rowland in his final term, but that was a long time back.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What was your most shocking Senate Result and What's the possible reasons? on: November 07, 2018, 10:38:24 am
It's not that surprising that Democrats apparently blew another one in FL.  The statewide party is AWFUL and has been bad for years. 

The fact that IN was essentially not competitive, as well as TN surprised me.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi on: November 06, 2018, 09:21:33 am
Forget 2016, how did Bredesen do when he was Governor?
He was "successful" and popular.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict Indiana on: November 06, 2018, 08:59:50 am
This is a huge litmus test race early in the evening.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Pick your upset of the night on: November 06, 2018, 08:57:32 am
Could be from the House, Senate or Governorships

Mine - Somehow, Phil Bredesen comes from behind and beats Marsha Blackburn in a stunner.  The polls have tightened.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is there any fear of that "hidden Republican vote" on: November 04, 2018, 05:28:18 pm
The other big problem with polls are early voting and mail-in ballots (i.e. OR and WA State).  How the heck can you get a fair poll?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why do almost all Jewish people vote Democrat? on: November 04, 2018, 05:07:42 pm
The Christian Right hasn't helped the GOP's cause with American Jews on a national level.  Then again, even before the 90s, Republicans never did well with Jews as a whole. 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / What will get the GOP over the top in Minnesota? on: November 04, 2018, 05:04:39 pm
There were close calls in 2000 and again in 2004.  2008 and 2012 weren't as competitive, and 2016 looked a lot like 2000.  Strong third party vote seems to eat away at Democratic support, although there was no large Nader factor in 2004.

The Midwest is slowly drifting more to the right, especially with social, blue collar conservatives, the ones who put Trump over the top.

What will it take to break the streak? As of now, it doesn't look like politically, 2020 will be that year either, but maybe in the future.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Is there any fear of that "hidden Republican vote" on: November 04, 2018, 04:53:18 pm
You know what I'm talking about.  It's become more unacceptable to be a Trump supporter, maybe even a conservative in general, depending on where you are.  Polls in '14 were often wrong. In '16, they were GROSSLY wrong.  People lie, but as Brokaw said back on Election Night '16, the magic of the ballot gives every one of us the privacy to vote for whom we want, and nobody has to know about it.

In these tight races that Democrats have a slight lead in, is there any fear of that?

Both major races in FL are potential targets for this.  Polls seem to skew slightly for both Democrats, but I wouldn't necessarily put an Election Day surge for both GOP candidates out the window.
 If you remember what we did learn two years back, same day voting put TRump over the top here, and did so in other key states like PA and MI.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-GOV: DeSantis + 3 (Strategic Research Associates) on: October 26, 2018, 09:03:59 am
Whether the whole scandal is smearing or real, people do not like anyone using the "race/minority" card as a defense to get others off their backs. That is a HUGE turn-off. That in itself could make a difference.

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL Quinnipiac: Gillum +6 on: October 24, 2018, 03:50:17 pm
Just watch for that "hidden" GOP vote, because it's become more socially unacceptable in the last four years to vote Republican. He may win, but watch out.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gillum plays the race card after caught lying about corruption on: October 24, 2018, 11:57:28 am
Gillum will still likely win.  Keep in mind that Florida elected Rick Scott, one of the most corrupt politicians and shady characters not once, but twice for Governor, and he has a viable shot to unseat Bill Nelson at this point.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TN-Vox Populi (R): Bredesen (D) +2 on: September 21, 2018, 07:51:50 am
What exactly does TN like though about Blackburn? from Day 1 in Congress, she's come across as arrogant, snobbish, has made some social gaffes and just seems generally unlikeable? I understand it's the upper south, but seriously.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD-Goucher: Hogan +22 on: September 21, 2018, 07:48:35 am
Why (just because it's MD) do I have a feeling there's going to be a bigtime "coming home" effect and that this race will actually get somewhat interesting?

When is the last time a MD GOPer won with >54% in any MD statewide race?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / What kept California in the GOP column for the final time in 1988? on: June 24, 2018, 10:13:05 pm
Was it really "the final gift from Reagan" as many have said over the years, or was suburbia (in CA) still strong enough for Bush to slide him past Dukakis? It's also possible that we don't really know given that the race was over by around 10pm. 

It is interesting though that CA was somewhat more Republican than OR and WA in '84 (due to Reagan's home state), but stayed aligned with the GOP that one last time in '88, while WA and OR switched.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 64


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines