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October 22, 2018, 09:46:09 pm
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101  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US-Canada County Maps Thread on: October 09, 2018, 12:32:53 pm
Okay, so here's a taste of what the overall projection patterns look like. As a reminder, these projections only take into consideration demographic and economic patterns, not actual political views or cultural differences. As such, Canada will look more Republican than in reality. The thought experiment here is if Canada had been annexed long ago by the US but otherwise developed and was settled identically.

Here are the province/territory level results for the past three elections. These are based off regressions at the American precinct level. I take a ton of variables and interactions into account including age, race, gender, marital status, education, income, density, industry, ancestry, house values, unemployment, commuting behavior, and other variables.



For 2016, Nova Scotia comes out as the most Democratic province (slightly above BC) while Saskatchewan is the most Republican.

In general, I'm finding less extreme results than last time I did this as I'm using precinct rather than county data.
102  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NOVA steps up their Nanny State game on: October 09, 2018, 09:10:20 am
Chesapeake is in southeast VA, not NOVA.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would you, out of these candidates, vote for in the 2020 Democratic primarie on: October 08, 2018, 11:30:15 pm
1) Biden
2) Sanders



3) Warren









4) Harris
104  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Yard signs and bumper stickers on: October 08, 2018, 11:09:55 pm
I consider bumper stickers of all kinds to be trashy. A quality yard sign can be nice, though.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rate New Hampshire for 2020 on: October 08, 2018, 11:05:31 pm
How angry are the women?
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh? on: October 08, 2018, 10:48:27 pm
As toast as the GOP were after Access Hollywood.

Will the Dems get a Comey Mueller letter?

Their best realistic hope is that something goes down with Rosenstein.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: on: October 08, 2018, 08:46:57 pm
I genuinely think a lot of these congressional race polls are off. That's the risk you take by doing so many polls in such a short time frame, but I'm seriously at the point where I think these call centers are having trouble reaching democratic voters.

Why would they have more trouble reaching D voters than R voters?
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: on: October 08, 2018, 08:44:43 pm
This is the first wave of polls taken entirely post-confirmation, and they are southern states. Doesn't prove anything, obviously.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: on: October 08, 2018, 08:23:21 pm
Cruz is leading whites 66-32 now, a more realistic number, but it looks like he's still a bit overestimated among minorities.

On the other hand, the TN crosstabs look pretty bang-on
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: on: October 08, 2018, 08:04:51 pm
NV sample is 71% women so far. lol
111  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Only 6% of Gen Z voters "strongly approve" of Trump on: October 07, 2018, 11:31:55 pm
You guys are seriously discussing a result based on a sample size of 63
112  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Homophobic tweets from CNN's Kaitlan Collins' college years resurface on: October 07, 2018, 10:08:48 pm
CNN needs to fire Collins today.

I've said it before. Progressives are hypocrites for demanding the sacking of Bill O'Reilly and others at Fox News, and not demanding the sacking of individuals at more "progressive" institutions, like the New York Times, MSNBC and CNN.

O'Reilly was fired for actual sexual harassment, and harassment while on the job to boot.  He knew the rules and laws regarding this when he did it.  This woman made statements in a tweet while she was a college student, and not on the job.

If she is creating a hostile work environment for people, that's another matter.


Exactly. No one should be fired over old tweets, no matter where they work. If anything this gives a modicum of evidence not everyone who works at CNN is a left-wing hack, which would be good for the network.

For me it's more the fact that her "apology" demonstrates that she either hasn't really learned anything or is really bad at communicating. A lot of people had really bad views in the past; I don't care about that.

Exactly what lesson are you fishing for, pray tell?
113  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of decriminalizing all drugs on: October 07, 2018, 09:44:47 pm
prohibition doesn't work

That people choose to break a law is not an argument against the law's existence.
114  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why government debt is not a burden on future generations on: October 07, 2018, 03:12:16 pm
In addition to the above, you're not considering the effect of government borrowing on interest rates, the loanable funds market, and private investment.
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Menendez +10 on: October 07, 2018, 12:25:54 pm
Why is this race getting more polled than IN/MO

East coast bias
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Food for thought: A Northeast liberal hasn't been elected President since 1960 on: October 07, 2018, 12:03:54 pm
These types of "facts" are beyond meaningless.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Menendez +10 on: October 07, 2018, 10:45:46 am
How come no "Kavanaugh energy" for Hugin?

He actually went down relative to other previous polls

Seems pretty clear that reactions to Kavanaugh are spatially polarized.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6 on: October 07, 2018, 09:58:13 am
Concerning Kavanaugh:

Quote
Republicans seem to have responded to the matter in Texas, where 73 percent of them say the matter is motivating them more, compared to 60 percent of Democrats.
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Comments regarding the Kavanaugh nomination (thread 3) on: October 06, 2018, 03:12:50 pm
Justice prevails
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Permanent Conservative Supreme Court on: October 06, 2018, 01:45:47 pm
Packing the court is a red line which should never be crossed by anyone. Once that norm is gone, there will be very little holding back a party from stuffing as many justices of their stripe on the court as possible. Indeed, the optimal move will be to simultaneously add dozens or hundreds of justices initially, strike down every law protecting your opposition, and establish de facto one-party rule, because if you don't strike first, the other side likely will at some point.

If politicians are too weak-willed to do so, the court will simply balloon without end, until it surpasses Congress in size. Laws will yo-yo back and forth based on who holds the Senate and Presidency. There will be no consistency in law. The American government will lose any credibility it has left. With such instability, the stock market will nosedive, American credit will evaporate, and any position the United States has in the world stage will vanish.
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Comments regarding the Kavanaugh nomination (thread 3) on: October 06, 2018, 12:34:46 pm
Unless you get all 50 states to agree to change the allocation of the senate , that will never change as making an amendment too change allocation rules in senate require 100% of the states to ratify.

Not true, constitutional amendments to fix the US electoral system can be passed with (effectively) a simple majority. You probably want to have a trifecta to do this, but all you have to do is admit new rotten borough states to obtain a sufficient majority to pass and ratify a constitutional amendment.

The procedure for this is you create a lot of new rotten borough states whose borders are drawn to elect particular Senators, admit them temporarily to the Union, hold an election the next day, swear in the Senators/representatives/governors the next day. These rotten borough states can just be drawn to include only the houses of particular carefully selected people for whom it is planned, in advance, that they will elect themselves as Senators/representatives/Governors, and will go and pass the constitutional amendments. A sufficient number of temporary rotten borough states will be created to get the 2/3 majorities. Remember, there is no inherent limit to how many states can be created in this way - we could make 500 (or 5000) such states if we want. After the amendments are passed, the rotten borough states are abolished and merged back into the states that they were split from, using the same procedures through which they were admitted.

Yeah, that's a one-way ticket to a civil war.
122  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US-Canada County Maps Thread on: October 06, 2018, 11:46:19 am
A lot of the maps in this thread were hosted by imageshack and have been lost. I don't have the original versions, unfortunately.

Would anyone be interested in updated versions of the vote projections, maybe at a lower geographic level (census subdivision/tract) and for 2016?
123  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Comments regarding the Kavanaugh nomination (thread 3) on: October 06, 2018, 11:28:04 am
Just a thought: 51 senators who represent 40% of the population vote for a man who has been nominated by someone losing the popular vote by three million votes. Trump was right: The system is rigged.

It's almost like we were never meant to be a direct democracy.

No, but we are meant to be a representative democracy.  When the minority has more power than the majority, that's not representative.

It is representative. It's representative of the states. We are always a union of states, not of people. If the left wants this to not harm them, they need to be willing to live places other than a handful of coastal cities.
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Comments regarding the Kavanaugh nomination (thread 3) on: October 06, 2018, 11:20:39 am
Just a thought: 51 senators who represent 40% of the population vote for a man who has been nominated by someone losing the popular vote by three million votes. Trump was right: The system is rigged.

It's almost like we were never meant to be a direct democracy.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Manchin's Yes Vote On Kavanaugh Help, Hurt, Or No Effect On His Reelection? on: October 06, 2018, 11:01:02 am
There's virtually no activist left-wing base for Manchin to alienate (save maybe a few voters in Morgantown or the DC exurbs). Any losses he sees there should be more than made up for my retaining conservative voters he might have lost by voting against Kavanaugh.

That said, he would probably win no matter how he voted.
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