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December 09, 2018, 05:39:48 pm
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126  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 02:09:43 am
Montana is going to be really close, but I think Rosendale might pull it out.
127  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 01:28:06 am
A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election.
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 01:14:05 am
Yeah, I wouldn't write Tester's obituary yet.
129  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 01:07:36 am
Rural counties looking pretty good for Heller.
130  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 01:03:19 am
Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester.

Not true. Although they're smaller counties, he will likely win Glacier, Blaine, Park, and possibly Roosevelt Counties. Park is Livingston, so that has at least some chance to get him some votes. But yes, he needs to run up the margin in Gallatin as much as possible.

None of those counties have that many votes.
131  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 12:50:51 am
Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester.
132  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 11:43:30 pm
Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Republicans, you mean.

Might as well be Dems
133  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 11:41:08 pm
Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?

Nope. Looks like John James' late close in the polls was real, too.

I think the GOP takes both OH and MI if they were open seats.
134  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 11:01:44 pm
FL is becoming a lean R state.
135  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 10:29:04 pm
If Jenny Wilson wins 40+ of the UT Sen. vote she should consider it a victory.

The vote is almost all SLC so far.
136  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 10:06:22 pm
Sinema barely won the Maricopa County early vote.
137  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 10:05:07 pm
Yellowstone is 75% in in Montana, and it seems solid for Tester. Who knows.
138  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:59:55 pm
Miami-Dade now up to 98%. Stick a fork in Nelson.
139  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:59:10 pm
Manchin's margin has also shrunk to just 2%
140  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:57:07 pm
HUGE east-west polarization in ND. Not a good sign for Tester
141  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:54:32 pm
NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet.

Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election?
Post link please/

Estimate

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

This doesn't account for the "phantom" votes in SE FL
142  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:53:10 pm
Broward now 98% in. Scott still up by 0.8% plus the error in Washington County.
143  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:48:49 pm
R's may win multiple D House seats in MN.
144  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:47:09 pm
CNN calls it for Menendez.

NJ gonna NJ
145  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:34:06 pm
Sherrod Brown's margin is collapsing.
146  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:28:17 pm
How on earth were the polls so off in TN (and IN and MO, but especially TN)?
147  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:25:46 pm
Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in

NYT has Hugin behind by ~20K with 31% in.

Just flipped narrowly on CNN
148  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:23:13 pm
CNN still has about a net 5,000 vote error in Nelson's favor in Washington County, FL
149  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:20:40 pm
Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in
150  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 08:58:39 pm
Hyde-Smith is ahead of McDaniel by a fair margin
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