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September 26, 2018, 05:25:44 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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51  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Universal Basic Income vs. Negative Income Tax? on: July 01, 2017, 11:38:15 am
A classical NIT preserves incentives to work while a UBI does not.
52  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Electoral Map of "People Who Were Born There" on: June 29, 2017, 02:56:32 pm
I imagine that CO, NV and VA would flip most likely.

NV would go from 6 to 3 EVs, too.

KY, WV, MS, AL, MI, PA, IA, MO would become relatively stronger in the electoral college and boost Trump.

Why would NV go down in EVs? Non-citizens already count towards apportionment.

Only 25% of Nevada residents were born there.
53  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: IF you had to pick one, which gender should the next Doctor be? on: June 29, 2017, 02:47:21 pm
Attack helicopter. Then the show might actually be interesting.
54  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Religiosity poll on: June 29, 2017, 02:42:19 pm
All 1's
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking News: House adopts AUMF repeal on: June 29, 2017, 01:31:51 pm
Why wouldn't Trump just veto it?
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 24 question political philosophy test on: June 29, 2017, 11:58:01 am
E: 14
S: 31

According to your scale, this makes me a "Christian Democrat" which is accurate, I guess.
57  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted if the tickets were reversed? on: June 29, 2017, 10:04:51 am
1912: Hiram Johnson
1916: Thomas Marshall
1920: Franklin Roosevelt
1924: Charles Bryan
1928: Charles Curtis
1932: Charles Curtis
1936: Frank Knox
1940: Charles McNary
1944: Harry Truman
1948: Earl Warren
1952: Richard Nixon
1956: Richard Nixon
1960: Lyndon Johnson
1964: Hubert Humphrey
1968: Edmund Muskie
1972: Spiro Agnew
1976: Bob Dole
1980: George H.W. Bush
1984: George H.W. Bush
1988: Lloyd Bentsen
1992: Al Gore
1996: Al Gore
2000: Joe Lieberman
2004: Jon Edwards
2008: Joe Biden
2012: Joe Biden
2016: Mike Pence
58  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which city would you rather live in? on: June 28, 2017, 02:13:58 pm
I'd prefer virtually any city in the US to New York.
59  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 28, 2017, 09:01:22 am
Christ, there's a lot of ignorance of academic economics is this thread.

It is not peer reviewed & I don't why it should even be discussed. Forget the good aspects,non-peer reviewed studies are largely considered junk in the academic world!

This is so incredibly wrong it makes my head hurt. Working papers (especially NBER working papers, which this was) are the most commonly discussed and covered type of economic paper, mostly due to the fact that they tend to be very high quality and publishing in economics takes forever. From the time a paper is done being written to publication can take years in economics; journals take forever even on the most basic desk rejection. Econ working papers are often better than the published versions of the same paper and receive more citations. Further, econ isn't the only field where working papers are the lingua franca; math and many of the hard sciences use extensive commenting on working papers through arXiv and the like.

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed.  

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

The UW paper is clearly superior to the Berkeley paper given that UW replicated Berkeley's results and then showed why they painted an incomplete picture of the situation. UW simply had better data than Berkeley; their methodologies were barely any different! Berkeley's hemming and hawing is the academic equivalent of being a sore loser.
60  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:37:14 pm
The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

Solved

Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.

NIT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax
61  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:33:12 pm
The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

Solved

Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.
62  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California assembly leader shelves single payer bill on: June 27, 2017, 03:24:36 pm
People might want to read this thread on why it was shelved before bitching about Democrats not being liberal enough.

https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/878474055233523712

I can't see single-payer surviving long in a state like CA (or WA) where voters can directly decide tax policy.
63  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is it hypocritical of me to listen to this song? on: June 27, 2017, 03:15:34 pm
Heaven forbid a Christian band take the Christian position on abortion. Roll Eyes
64  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:05:46 pm
Didn't  this study basically a "control" out of its ass?

That's how synthetic controls work. It's a pretty common and recognized method for studying discrete policy changes. The methodology is pretty solid.
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC allows partial travel ban pending appeal on: June 26, 2017, 10:14:54 am
Apparently this decision was 6 to 3, meaning there was a liberal justice who supported this move.

All nine justices supported at least partial reinstatement. The three dissenters wanted full reinstatement.

So probably Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas?

Yes, I believe so.
66  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC allows partial travel ban pending appeal on: June 26, 2017, 10:10:57 am
Apparently this decision was 6 to 3, meaning there was a liberal justice who supported this move.

All nine justices supported at least partial reinstatement. The three dissenters wanted full reinstatement.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden’s dust up with hedge fund manager Bill Ackman on: June 24, 2017, 11:19:22 pm
Ackman has a point...
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Stephen Colbert win the White House? on: June 24, 2017, 06:05:27 pm
Ugh. He should've ran back in 2008, not now.

Didn't he get votes in the South Carolina Republican Primary in 2012?

2008 was when he actually tried to get on the SC ballot. In 2012, he had his fans vote for Herman Cain instead.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: June 24, 2017, 06:01:31 pm
I guess a better question is how come the Iron Range counties didn't flip to the Republicans like every other white working class Democrat area in the country?

Most of the Iron Range townships did flip. The only parts that didn't were tourist-y (Cook County is not working class, for example) or near Duluth, which is more urban.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If a 3rd party had won... on: June 24, 2017, 03:29:45 pm
source?

This site plus electproject.org/2016g
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If a 3rd party had won... on: June 24, 2017, 01:34:54 pm
If everyone who didn't vote had voted for the exact same "third party" candidate what would the map have looked like?

If you give every hypothetically eligible person who didn't vote for Trump or Clinton to the same third party candidate, you get a landslide:

72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which democrats would win Wyoming? on: June 24, 2017, 01:24:03 pm
Maybe Kanye if he registers as one.

We're talking about Wyoming. The musician you're looking for is Keith Urban, not Kanye.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which democrats would win Wyoming? on: June 24, 2017, 11:34:49 am
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74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Stephen Colbert win the White House? on: June 24, 2017, 11:33:14 am
Ugh. He should've ran back in 2008, not now.
75  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Democrats Are ‘Children Of Satan,’ Right-Wing Radio Host Says on: June 22, 2017, 10:45:49 am
Modern secular social liberalism has at its root the same pitch as Satan gave to Eve: you know better than God, so why follow His rules? In a very literal way, social liberalism, atheism, libertarianism, etc. could all be labeled as Satanic and rightfully so.

While it's literally impossible for people to know better than God, God gave us a brain in order to think, otherwise he would have left the brain part out. It's all part of God's plan. In any case, Trump isn't very Godly.

Sure, but not all possible thoughts and actions are in accordance with God's will; He gave us fists, but that itself doesn't morally justify a punch. That's part of the whole free will thing.

The Bible is predicated on the notion that God's will is inherently and definitionally the highest possible good, ergo deviation from it is suboptimal at best and outright evil at worst. Every time Satan appears in the Bible, his message is consistent. He talks to people who know what the right thing is, but for whom doing what they want to do would be easier, more pleasureful, and full of positive worldly consequences. When Satan came to Jesus in the desert, it was to tell Him that taking the easy way out would give Him all kinds of worldly wonders, despite the fact He knew the Father's will for Him was anything but easy.

The Left complains God's commands as understood through the Bible are too strict, too hard, too intolerant, too offensive. Wouldn't it be easier to just ignore them? Think of all the money, fame, sex, drugs, and power you could have. Wouldn't that just be so good? Think of how many fewer arguments we'd have if no one cared what others did. No one would ever have to feel judged for what they did; no one would have to ever experience anything negative which might actually build moral character. Everything would just be so easy. And at the end of the day, when you feel that gaping maw of emptiness inside you, it's okay because you can fill it with new shallow frivolities tomorrow; you can always mortgage your soul another day.

But at least liberals care about the worldly pleasantries of others. Libertarians and some others on the Right (including Trump) would take even that if they could extract another ounce of worldly pleasure for themselves. Atheists go so far as to say God's commands don't even exist, and spend their lives pre-gaming for the absence of God awaiting them after this life, going so far as to lionize eternal annihilation as a desirable end. The Satanic call is so ingrained in their psyche that even the infinite beauty of God's love becomes like ash in their mouths, something to be despised and hated even if they believed it existed. It's no coincidence that the Church of Satan is essentially an atheistic, libertarian cult.

You can see all that in this very thread. Satan's servants will embrace him at the slightest provocation, even if they never realized they were so before. Sure, it may often come as jest, but it is a Freudian jest at best; that they would even allow such an equivocation is telling in itself.
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