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October 20, 2017, 06:43:42 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 16, 2017, 03:54:54 pm
  Any thoughts about which seats will be most impacted compared to 2015 by not having a UKIP candidate this time around?
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: May 15, 2017, 11:09:02 am
   If just a tiny bit of the SPD or Green electorate had voted for Die Linke and thus put them over the 5% threshold there would be no possibility of a CDU/FDP majority. 
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: May 12, 2017, 04:28:07 pm
  If Kern's idea goes through, then maybe OVP-FPO will get used to cooperating in parliament now and then keep it up after the next election whenever that is.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 12, 2017, 04:26:17 pm
  Labour probably not too excited to see so many seats without a UKIP candidate. OTOH do we really know just how many UKIP voters will really vote Tory if there is no UKIP candidate running, or just stay home or vote for some other party.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: May 12, 2017, 04:19:03 pm
  Maybe there could be some political/financial bribe/offer to get the independents to vote for early elections? 
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 12, 2017, 10:52:12 am
    So it looks like there will be many seats where after the 1st round we might have a REM, Republican, a FN and a left candidate all making the 2nd round. In such circumstances what kind of stand down agreements are likely, if at all.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 12, 2017, 12:01:58 am
  This must be one of the best seat % wins by a Green Party anywhere in the world in a system using FPTP. Hopefully that doesn't make them lose their intensity of support for PR.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 11, 2017, 03:49:19 pm
  I like the Labour manifesto pledge for 4,000 homes for people with rough sleeping.  As someone who isn't a great sleeper I'll be following the debate about this with great interest.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 10, 2017, 10:56:50 am
   In a nutshell why do so many posters on this board not like Valls?
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 10, 2017, 12:41:33 am
  Oh right, but in terms of the policies they would be about like immigration and government reform does the new platform include them?
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 09, 2017, 04:16:34 pm
  If this Conservative lead holds up for awhile during the campaign the marginals are going to be quite different than the usual suspects.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 09, 2017, 04:14:19 pm
   Does the Republicains platform still call for the various national referenda that Fillon wanted?
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 08, 2017, 10:20:41 am
   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 07, 2017, 02:55:24 pm
  If the legislatives could be delayed a few months I wonder if Macron's honeymoon period would be over and EM wouldn't do as well.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 07, 2017, 02:53:57 pm
  IIRC there was a poll of the French electorate and how they felt about Macron and Le Pen's stances on the EU, immigration etc.  I believe people were closer to  Le Pens stance on immigration by a huge (yuge) number, and Macron's EU stance by a similar number.  So, a big amount of Macron's voters don't necessarily reject Le Pens restrictionist stance, but they are rejecting her and her baggage.  Makes one wonder how Fillon would have done had it not been for his personal transgressions.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 07, 2017, 02:33:35 pm
   Trump 2.0 which is trending more like a neo-con interventionist administration would likely rather have Macron than MLP imho.  Maybe not Trump himself, but people like Tillerson, Mattis, Hailey, Kushner, Mcmaster etc.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: May 07, 2017, 02:28:58 pm
   Interesting that the Greens still got 8% of the non-highly educated, and Die Linke doing better among highly educated then non.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 07, 2017, 02:16:22 pm
  So I take it my 150 dollars on FBM to win  (or rather MLP to lose, placed before the runoff)are safe at predictit. My winnings should be about 45 dollars. Hilarious that at one point MLP was at 38% chance to win for a day or so a few days before the runoff.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 04, 2017, 03:58:11 pm
    We know that both candidates are supporters of going to proportional representation for National Assembly elections, but unfortunately Le Pen now supports a majority bonus (like in Greece  I believe), but what about Fabulous Macron, has he said exactly what type of PR he supports, and has he said anything about it recently?
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: May 04, 2017, 11:25:01 am
  That FDP number for NRW is pretty strong. Any reasons for its strength there? Also, looks like whether Die Linke makes it over the 5% threshold might have a big impact on the next government.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 04, 2017, 11:21:13 am
   So it looks like UKIP will not be running candidates against at least some of the more prominent pro-Brexit tory MPs. This will be a fascinating just from the analytics aspect because we will be able to see how will these candidates do vs those Tories who do face UKIP opponents, in terms of national swing etc. It seems like it might be quite a lot of UKIP stand downs, which in a way is logical in that a prime focus of UKIP is/was Brexit, so it makes sense to not try to defeat potential allies who are actually implementing the policy.  OTOH, its a slippery slope toward political marginalization once you start bowing out of elections.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 02, 2017, 11:01:17 am
   On most economic issues, is it fair to say that Le Pen is running to the left of Macron?  From what I've read this seems to be the case.  Of all the populist, anti-globalist European parties lumped in as "far-right" I wonder what others have had candidates running like this, i.e. strongly nationalist, but also on the left economically.
   Had it come to a Macron vs Melenchon runoff would Le Pen have endorsed Melenchon?
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 29, 2017, 05:42:35 pm
  But more importantly, what endorsement decision has Lassalle reached?
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: April 28, 2017, 04:20:38 pm
  Tender, that Vienna poll is amazing.  It implies that the SPO would do better outside of Vienna than in the city itself, if you look at the nationwide polls.  Also implies that lots of ex-SPO voters are going to FPO not the other parties.  Does this make sense for a city like Vienna?
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 27, 2017, 11:23:25 am
   As we approach the French runoff election will opposition parties attempt to tie PM May to Marine Le Pen?  On immigration they both have the "tens of thousands" policy, with May saying net annual migration should be in the "tens of thousands" and Le Pen the stricter "ten thousand" policy. On EU policy May is doing what Le Pen would probably want to do as President.
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