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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Millennials Flock to the Mainstream Media on: Today at 06:41:18 am
sad and stupid generation, but i wouldn't generalize, that's the liberal way...

We all must generalize, but we must be aware that our generalizations that have the service of an agenda as its objective are usually corrupt.

The Millennial generation, the generation that you believe is most addled with the Internet, cable TV,  and with video games, is not as dumb as you think.  It can see through Donald Trump. It is not far away from getting influence in politics by winning elections as many of our geriatric politicians fade out, and Tea Party types show how intellectually vacant they are.

Demographics are much of political reality, and a generation that has no stake in the arrangements that it has known in very early adulthood isn't going to defend those arrangements. This generation has shown in polling that it recognizes Donald Trump as the fraud that he is. 

2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which of these matter the most? on: Today at 06:31:13 am
1. Gerrymandering: Gerrymandering exists to dilute Democratic representation. Basically, rural white people are conservatives, and unless a city has about 400K people its vote can be diluted by rural voters. Thus Kalamazoo, Lansing, and Grand Rapids can have right-wing representatives who well represent the countryside and vote against the interests of urban populations. Another trick is to split an urban area so that its population can be diluted with two or more representatives.

Rural representatives generally don't have much constituent service to do, so they do donor service instead. We end up with a gross misrepresentation of the people.

2. Citizens United. This may be the most destructive ruling toward democracy ever. The idea that campaign funding is free speech instead of command is a manifest absurdity.

3. Electoral manipulation.  Part of the fault lies in people gullible enough to believe that "I saw that on Facebook" has authority as a source. It does not. Maybe our technologies are too sophisticated for many to use for their own good.

This time the Russians may have collaborated with the Trump campaign and the Republican Party to install someone who serves the interests of the Russian government and perhaps the Russian Mafia. Will it be OK for Democrats to make similar deals with perhaps China the next time?   

4. Other -- lobbyist control of the legislative process.  The tendency strengthened while Obama was President, and now the United States is close to being a dominant-party political system. Lobbyists control the Republican Party and almost all its legislators in State legislatures as well as the House and Senate. Lobbyists make puppets of 'their' pet legislators and coordinate the financing for most legislative elections. These people serve America's elites of ownership and management at the expense of everyone else.

We end up with economic fascism, if without the parades, the torture chambers, and the 'disappearances'. The common man is expected to suffer on behalf of people who want him to be  paid as little as possible and fleeced as much as possible. The values of people who have no ethical constraints upon their greed and indulgence prevail, as was the norm in aristocratic societies.   
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: expensive Coal Bailout coming, Perry: it's gov's job to pick who wins/loses on: Today at 12:38:54 am
We Republicans can't criticize the dumping of public money into inefficient green-energy sources and yet support something like this. We need to eliminate government imposed barriers to energy production, not have government propping up industries that can't survive on their own. We shouldn't have a government that is pro-coal or anti-coal but instead a government that supports open and free competition within the energy sector. Hope this plan fails.

This is what we get with a demagogue as leader: someone who scraps economic rationality and efficiency for patronage. Coal mining has been a dying business for decades in the Appalachians (where the 'classical' coal miners are), and President Trump can prop it up only by demanding that we Americans burn more coal. That means pumping more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and thus accelerating AGW.

Will the 'classical' coal miners go to the west to mine the coal? Probably not, as the mining techniques are different. The 'classical' coal miners will get nothing out of it, but the coal barons will profiteer richly.

To be sure, there are other uses of coal than burning it for energy. But I don't see us making much more iron and steel per capita. Petroleum coke, which comes from oil and natural gas, is far more suitable as the carbon to be used in iron and steel production, as it is closer to being carbon than coal often containing sulfur unwelcome in iron and steel. (The RMS Titanic  sank faster than anyone could have expected because its steel had excessive sulfur that makes steel more brittle).

With his rejection of the free market for purposes other than equity (such as alleviation of poverty) or national security, President Trump shows that he is not a conservative.

 
4  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: Capital in the 21st Century on: October 22, 2017, 03:44:21 pm
The much-touted post-industrial Information Age has not met its promise. Indeed it is a nightmare.

Truth be told, labor has been devalued, and everything else has not a labor-saving item (like energy or information) has become fiendishly expensive. Economic elites have become more rapacious and have begun to work in lockstep. 
5  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: What are you reading right now? on: October 22, 2017, 03:40:46 pm


So why is the Age Without Scarcity not the glorious dream that many of us expected?
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Millennials Flock to the Mainstream Media on: October 22, 2017, 03:32:50 pm
Donald Trump could hardly be more inconsistent with Millennial values. He's practically free advertising for mainstream media that have never given him any respect.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: National map if Trump loses Texas on: October 22, 2017, 02:34:41 pm
Democrats winning Texas? They would have to get heavy Democratic turnout in  Dallas, Travis, Bexar, and Harris counties and those along the Rio Grande, flip Jefferson, Orange, and Nueces Counties, cut heavily into the 'educated white vote' that they do not yet get in counties surrounding Dallas (including Tarrant, which is almost half suburban despite having Fort Worth)  as they got in metropolitan areas around giant northern and western cities... It's easy to see what the disaster is for a Republican nominee.  Part is demographic, but part is that the Republicans are completing the loss of educated suburbanites -- including white ones.

Texas used to be a poor 'redneck' state, but that is over. The reliably Republican areas are the rural areas, especially in the Panhandle.
8  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: should cashless stores be illegal? on: October 22, 2017, 02:20:29 pm
The wave of the future is debit cards.  Cash will be suspect.
9  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Are private schools fundamentally lower quality education compared to public? on: October 22, 2017, 02:18:55 pm
For good reason elite families send their kids to elite boarding schools. Controlled environment -- uniforms, probably little television, highly-structured activities. The results are often uniformly a bit above average, but not conducive to genius-level achievement. 
10  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should a Jewish baker be forced to bake a cake for a Nazi wedding? on: October 22, 2017, 02:14:05 pm
You missed one with the slogan ARBEIT MACHT FREI.

...Gays and lesbians do not persecute straight people.

The only rationale for making  such a cake would be theatrical. Thus if Mel Brooks commissions it for a comedy spoofing Nazis I would do it. But if it is made to promote Nazism I would reject it and give a reason such as "for the same reason that I would never make a cake bearing the words "F--- YOU!"

I would not make a cake shaped like a coffin or a cemetery stone that reads "Pay up or die" on behalf of a loan shark. Or one with suggestion of pedophilia. Or one celebrating the September 11 attack. On  the other hand... maybe I would make one of those cakes in cooperation with law enforcement a snare for someone who deserves to be arrested. The cake would probably be inedible -- you know, made with wood shavings or old newspapers... as evidence of a crime.   

Of course it is possible that someone could get a rather plain cake and decorate it as he wishes -- even with a swastika or Nazi slogans, or many other possible offenses. 



What someone does with the cake
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bannon - "Trump will reach 400 electoral votes in 2020" on: October 22, 2017, 11:57:48 am
I don't get why you guys are flipping New Jersey before Connecticut. Trump lost NJ by a larger margin than CT.

Because people think that Connecticut is entirely Fairfield County which is a bad fit for Trump.

The three states in which Donald Trump is most well known are, due to the media of New York City:

Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, in alphabetical order.

Connecticut has some St. Louis-like dumps in Hartford and New Haven, just as New Jersey has Newark, Paterson, and Trenton. Camden makes Detroit look good by contrast.

If you're not trolling, I'm getting the impression that you might be a bit racist...

The dumps full of ethnic minorities tend to go D. The dumps full of white people tend to go R. Contrast Kentucky or West Virginia to Connecticut and New Jersey. The ethnic minorities in dumpy places know who their friends are in politics. Poor white people don;t realize who their enemies are.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: David Duke thanks Trump for support, rails against "Jewish Supremacy" on: October 22, 2017, 10:33:02 am
David Duke is made out to be a raving lunatic racist by people on the left and right of the political establishment.  Denouncing David Duke is how every conservative reassures people that he's compassionate and sympathetic to all races and religions.  And yet, if you listen to David Duke you'll hear a calm, rational and articulate man.  He has more intelligence in his pinky finger than Sean Hannity or Bill O'Reilly have in their entire bodies.

He has the calmness of a mobster plotting a hit. He has the intelligence of such a mastermind of hatred as Josef Goebbels. He knows enough to not talk about setting up concentration camps and torture chambers as might the crudest neo-Nazis and Ku Kluxists. He knows enough to not use the word that rhymes with "Tigger". No, I don't mean the name of Roy Rogers' horse.

David Duke has attended conferences of Holocaust deniers. He may have been a Klan leader, but he now knows enough to give up that shtick. It's too offensive. No, he tries to dress his racism in a slightly-updated expression of the discredited pseudoscience of eugenics.

Nothing says that intelligent people can't be evil. Some stupid losers pick evil because that allows them a tool of survival and achieving some transitory bliss.  Some. like Goebbels, Trotsky, Quisling, and Duke choose it for sharing power with some sort of political demon. 
 
Quote
David Duke does not espouse hate, violence, or white supremacy.  He stands for peace and traditional values.  He opposes torture.  (I happen to support enhanced interrogation, but that's beside the point.)

David Duke is more subtle in expressing hatred, violence, and white supremacy than the schmuck who wears tattoos of swastika, Sieg heil!, White Power, and the numbers '14' and '88' that he got while in prison for auto theft or armed robbery. He is for peace only to the extent that he does not have the means for fomenting a sacred 'racial holy war' that the schmuck who wears tattoos of swastika, Sieg heil!, White Power, and the numbers '14' and '88' that he got while in prison for auto theft or armed robbery wants now. Traditional values? Sure -- if segregation and the subjection of non-white peoples constitute 'traditional values'. Torture? I can  only imagine what sort of legal system he wants. 
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How concerned are you about a possible war in Korea (or WWIII)? on: October 22, 2017, 01:33:39 am
10. The adults are not in charge in either Washington or Pyongyang.

A year ago, President Obama would be cutting deals with China and Russia, as in 'if North Korean missiles violate your countries' airspace, then we will not resist any effort to establish a government that you trust in northern Korea' and 'the sphere of influence of the People's Republic of China shall not extend south of the line of demarcation'.    To reach the continental United States, a North Korean missile must penetrate Chinese and Russian (and quite possibly Canadian) airspace. Check the Great Circle routes.  

This callow spat can result in mass death not known since the Iran-Iraq war.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Are the Democrats failing or doing well as an opposition? on: October 22, 2017, 01:26:47 am
Democrats are trying to establish an alternative agenda while Republicans are almost at war with each other. Democrats wisely avoid choosing sides in that struggle.




15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Trump Failing as President? on: October 22, 2017, 01:08:30 am
Economy roaring
ISIS defeated
Gorsuch confirmed
Tax cuts on the way

Everything else is just noise.

Korean peninsula in danger of apocalyptic war
intensification of tight-wing violence
ethnic divisions intensifying
elitist economics
President as a sick joke overseas, even in America's traditional allies
secrecy about four soldiers' deaths in Niger
bumbling of a natural disaster in Puerto Rico
allegations of collusion by the Trump campaign and the Republican Party with a foreign power to shape an election

Mister, we could someone like Barack Obama again...
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: After Weinstein’s fall, Trump accusers wonder: Why not him? on: October 21, 2017, 10:19:24 pm
Hollywood is a centre of moral accountability whereas the Republican party is not

The casting couch, an allegation that has been in existence since the silent film era, is no myth.

Donald Trump is the first Presidential nominee to admit to sexual assault (as in, "I grab them by their  [crorches])"

As a juror, I could convict someone of sexual assault in the event of someone grabbing a woman by her "kitty-cat" without consent, I am not sure that intentional or reckless penetration without at least implicit consent would constitute rape... but I could vote for rape under some circumstances.

The penetration could be as slight as  a fingernail. 
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.2 on: October 21, 2017, 05:52:57 pm
Morning Consult polling is slightly more favorable to Trump than other polling. Contrast how different its polling is for Virginia, which has some similarities to Florida, to that of Quinnipiac.

But 48-47 in polling involving Florida, and we see surprisingly little polling for Florida aside from polling data of 50-state polls, is statistical noise.

I imagine we'll see a lot more state level polling after the November 2017 elections. Particularly of states with competitive senate races

There are quite a few states -- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona...
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Atlas react if Steve Bullock is elected President in 2020? on: October 21, 2017, 10:52:06 am
At this point many of us will be excited that Doofus Donald or Malignant Mike will no longer trouble us as President.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Incumbency in 2020 on: October 21, 2017, 10:49:47 am
Getting voters to vote against an incumbent is essentially getting them to fire an employee and hire you to replace them. Not only must you make the argument as to why you should be hired, but you have to simultaneously make the argument as to why they should be fired, without alienating too many of the people who still think they're doing a good job.

That is the poorest way to get a job. It's even less effective than mailing resumes and cover letters to potential employers. It is easier to get a job by looking for places with a high turnover, as in retail and fast food. You will find out why the turnover is so high -- despotic management, low pay, and practically no chance of improvement in life by staying there.

......

You might consider the Lichtman test.

Here are the 13 keys to the White House. They are stated as conditions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the incumbent party loses.

http://marylandreporter.com/2012/11/08/presidential-champion-lichtmans-13-keys-are-still-the-winning-election-formula/

1.     Incumbent-party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2.     Nomination contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.     Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4.     Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5.     Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.     Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
7.     Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.     Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.     Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10.     Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11.     Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12.     Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13.     Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

These criteria would have told us that Eisenhower would beat Stevenson (twice), Kennedy would defeat Nixon, LBJ would defeat Goldwater, Nixon would defeat Humphrey and McGovern, Ford would lose to Carter, Reagan would defeat Carter and Mondale, the elder Bush would defeat Dukakis but lose to Clinton, Clinton would defeat  the elder Bush and then Dole, the younger Bush would defeat Kerry, and that Obama would win twice. It is ambiguous about 2000 and 2016, and in both elections  the winner of the popular vote would lose in the Electoral College.  

At this point, the only sure losing sign for Republicans in 2020 is (9)  -- scandal. (8 ) is close if it continues, and (10) is a matter of interpretation.

(1) will be decided definitively in about a year. I see no reason to expect the Republicans to not lose some House seats on the net.  
(2) this shows either that someone has ambition to rush the succession to the Presidency (like Ronald Reagan in 1976 or Ted Kennedy in 1980) if the President is having trouble. Just look at 1968 or 2016 for Democrats.
(3) So far this looks like a positive for the Republicans. It's tough to unseat an incumbent within one's own Party, so it is safe to assume that Donald Trump or (should the Devil take his soul) Mike Pence will be the incumbent President in November 2016 and will have the nomination.
(4) We will not know until the weather warms up in 2020.
(5) We really have no idea until 2020.
(6) It is more likely that we will have an economic meltdown in 2020 than a boom.  The Obama economy is what we still have. It is hard to see how the Republicans can keep it up while disparaging everything about Obama.
(7) One would expect such already. The Republicans certainly have an agenda, but they have yet to enact it so far. This is in part legislative failure.
(8 ) We are beginning to see it in the form of mass marches and protests. So to speak, we are already getting the oily rags together in a heap.
(9) This is already a huge negative for the Trump Administration.
(10 -- amended) The rest of the world seems to be trying to isolate his worst tendencies... but I can easily see him getting a war that mauls America. What Dubya got away with in 2004, Trump might not get away with. The President has badly mishandled the deaths of four American Special Forces soldiers in Niger. That  is a 'small' failure on the surface, but it is a failure. It bodes ill.    
(11) Do you see anything of the sort now? The big international news is the juvenile feud between the President and the King-in-all-but-name of North Korea, in which "double-dog-dare-you" has nuclear weapons as possible consequences. This bodes ill.
(12) See how President Trump holds up in 2020. The charisma that he had in 2016 might wear thin by then. He will not miraculously become a war hero by leading troops at the front line.
(13) With perhaps twenty potential Democratic nominees for President so far, this is now impossible to predict until the Democratic nominee of 2020 sews things up.  

(9) is undeniably false by now; the 8th and 10th keys are almost completely false now. Three answers are already false, in effect within nine months of this President's inauguration. The social unrest may largely be non-violent so far, but it is over many issues. The anti-Trump rallies are larger in scale than the Tea Party rallies of eight years ago, and they are even more civilized than the Tea Party rallies.   But there has been violence from the Alt Right, and President Trump
has bungled his response to them.

He is 3/5 of the way to being defeated in a re-election bid in nine months. The polls so far seem to show that.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steyer launching Trump impeachment campaign on: October 21, 2017, 10:04:47 am
Impeaching Trump will do no good for Democrats lest they have a new Vice President as a consequence. Mike Pence is as reactionary as anyone can be.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bannon - "Trump will reach 400 electoral votes in 2020" on: October 21, 2017, 10:02:03 am
I don't get why you guys are flipping New Jersey before Connecticut. Trump lost NJ by a larger margin than CT.

Because people think that Connecticut is entirely Fairfield County which is a bad fit for Trump.

The three states in which Donald Trump is most well known are, due to the media of New York City:

Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, in alphabetical order.

Connecticut has some St. Louis-like dumps in Hartford and New Haven, just as New Jersey has Newark, Paterson, and Trenton. Camden makes Detroit look good by contrast.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Alt Right Neo Nazi Leader Richard Spencer - Women shouldn't be allowed to vote on: October 21, 2017, 09:48:04 am
My question is this:  Why is this nut case getting so much attention?  Why is his speaking on campus a national news story?  Angela Davis spoke at my campus in 1975; why wasn't that news?  

The reason was because of the "counter-demonstrators".  They're the ones that make violence possible.  They're there to provoke Spencer and his crowd to violence.  Which is what Spencer wants, as to the more hairy followers of Spencer.  

"Counter-demonstrators" are what keep these alt-right lunatics "relevant".  They, and the media that can't wait to cover the speeches of folks like Spencer, in the hope that violence will break out and some "journalist" will get a leg up toward his next Pulitzer Prize or book contract.  If a tree fell in forest and nobody heard it fall, did it make a noise?  If Richard Spencer spoke on whatever he speaks about and no media showed up, was it an event?

Here's the key to drying up the alt-right:  STOP GIVING THEM ATTENTION!

Nazis and the KKK are the political equivalent of pornography. They draw attention for all the wrong reasons and are in our faces for all the wrong reasons. OK, there is a difference: breasts give nourishment to babies, vaginas provide the place through which babies come, and penises supply the seed for babies. Sex can create life; Nazis associate themselves with mass murder, and the KKK  has never brought anything but misery to people for which it expresses hatred. I can attest that breasts and vaginas are beautiful. Penises? One must be female or gay to truly appreciate them.

Pornography and the Alt-Right share a tendency to bring out the self-righteousness of multitudes. Being on higher moral ground than Nazis or even the Klan is incredibly cheap. Harvey Swinestein, whose personal life is pornographic, is on a higher moral plain than is the typical Nazi. If anyone says that the Klan at least never operated any death camps, then I see such as strictly the failure of the Klan to achieve the national power that would have allowed them to perform anything like the Holocaust; the KKK had much the same objects of hatred that the Nazis had.  If the Nazis had won World War II, then the Klan would have been the most likely collaborators in the Holocaust in America. (Note that Philip K. Dick, in his A Man in the High Castle, did not name the Klan as such -- I presume out of concern of his publisher about costly lawsuits by America's worst fascist pigs).

But remember ho much news coverage serial killers Ted Bundy and John Gacy got for demonstrating the worst in human character. Think of the highly-successful novels In Cold Blood  about a pair of losers who would be unknown except for a botched robbery that led to the slaughter of a family, and Helter Skelter about the sick cult around Charles Manson. A loser prostitute (Aileen Wuornos) who murdered her johns would get little attention otherwise.

Truth be told, Spencer's speeches are awful, just as those of Hitler were. America in 2017 has some parallels to Germany in 1931 in the masses having to suffer economically and emotionally  for exploitative elites who deflect blame to successful people who are somehow different, with the elites largely supporting the 'fascism-light' of the DNVP in the latter years of the Weimar Republic and a GOP taking an excursion on the fascist road in America. In America the objects of hatred are the black middle class, which (horror of horrors to white racists) does much intermarriage with white people and incorporates them permanently onto the black gene pool, much as was the concern of Nazis about Jews bringing 'Aryans' into the realm of Jewish 'blood'.

Spencer draws brutal toughs around him, as did Hitler. He uses much the same euphemisms as Hitler while exuding the same hatred. Considering what Hitler and his crime syndicate did, and that people born after World War II have images of Nazi atrocities seared into their minds as if they lived through the times... Spencer draws attention.

The real mess is that the economic elites of America are transforming America into a plutocratic nightmare. Between corporate farmers squeezing out family farmers, super-rich families like the Koch and Mercer families with their dream of an America that resembles a Marxist stereotype of capitalism,  an executive class that has come to resemble the Soviet nomenklatura,  sold-out intellectuals as in right-wing think tanks and in corporate lobbying firms, and some factions of organized crime all united in making America a place in which opportunity and any possibility of happiness are to be enjoyed only in the Afterlife (in which those elites make no obvious investment) in return for suffering with smiles for the rest of us... we have a big problem.

The real problem is that we have economic elites trying to turn a free people into peons. The Alt Right is a diversion.        
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.2 on: October 21, 2017, 09:01:18 am
Morning Consult polling is slightly more favorable to Trump than other polling. Contrast how different its polling is for Virginia, which has some similarities to Florida, to that of Quinnipiac.

But 48-47 in polling involving Florida, and we see surprisingly little polling for Florida aside from polling data of 50-state polls, is statistical noise.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WIP: My 2020 County prediction map on: October 20, 2017, 11:36:06 pm
So far, somewhere between Obama 2008 and 2012 with the eleven states north and east of the Potomac, with West Virginia thrown in.

If I see this map forming early, then the Democratic nominee will have a 112-5 lead from these twelve states alone as the states usually called early are mostly called.
  

If we assume that all states are correlated to an extent, the national result should be a larger Democratic win than Obama '8 based on these results.

Maybe. I am a bit cautious. We don't have Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida yet.

Trump is shown losing Pennsylvania decisively and not picking off ME-02. That's '08 or '12... but also Kerry '04. But if Trump is losing the I-476 corridor in Pennsylvania, then he is not going to win Michigan or Wisconsin.   
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WIP: My 2020 County prediction map on: October 20, 2017, 10:47:52 pm
So far, somewhere between Obama 2008 and 2012 with the eleven states north and east of the Potomac, with West Virginia thrown in.

If I see this map forming early, then the Democratic nominee will have a 112-5 lead from these twelve states alone as the states usually called early are mostly called.

This is what the electoral map looks like at 8:15 PM on Election Night in 2020:
  



voting partially closed  61

Republican lead likely to hold 16
probable Republican win by that time 37
called for the Republican 27

white -- far too early to call 46

called for the Democrat 85
probable Democratic win by that time 21


still voting, entire state everything else



That's before New York State is called (which should be no surprise). Also Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin... and should Pennsylvania be solidified by then, then it  is time for Democrats to start eying champagne (or sparkling wine, if you have American bubbly) bottles to salute the impending end of a four-year Reign of Error.  
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