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October 22, 2017, 11:23:08 pm
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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 06, 2017, 10:45:13 pm
The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of Republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

In 2016 the polls suggesting that Donald Trump was closing in on Hillary Clinton and that Democratic edges in Senate races vanishing looked like outliers. Then they proved true in the 2016 election. Just when you think that approval ratings for President Trump have recovered a little from their lowest comes a poll like this. But then comes some erratic and discreditable behavior, including the "calm before the storm" nonsense.  

Watch for more polls. They could corroborate or disavow this polling result.  
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 06, 2017, 03:02:55 pm
Trump and hispanics

National
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 76%

Florida
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 64%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-florida-hispanic-poll-trump-20171004-story.html

This may explain how execrably President Trump is doing in Colorado and new Mexico and why he is doing about as badly in Texas as in Iowa and Ohio. 

Is this really that bad?  The Florida number is actually higher than his 35% Hispanic vote according to exit polls in 2016.  Nationally his approval among Hispanics seems to be down less than among the electorate overall and I wouldn't assume all people that disapprove of him wont vote for him.  Some don't like him but will vote for him for ideological reasons.

At this level, a difference of 1% is statistical noise. Participation may matter more.


This looks like an outlier, but we will have some corroboration if it should prove valid.
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Political Families where the Father and Son have a severe disconnect? on: October 06, 2017, 12:16:30 pm
Why no mention of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

HW explicitly did not want to invade Iraq to overthrow Saddam, even though he easily could have. W invaded Iraq to overthrow Saddam.

HW is highly respected amongst intellectual political observers on both sides of the aisle. W is neither.

HW was an intellectual conservative. W was not.

That was going to be my suggestion.

Uh, Barack Hussein Obama, Senior -- and Junior, maybe?

Is there any possibility of disconnects between fathers and daughters?
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What did Trump mean?.... on: October 06, 2017, 12:13:31 pm
This President's words have no meaning except as inflammatory rhetoric.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 06, 2017, 12:12:11 pm
Many of the Hispanics in Florida are right-wing Cuban-Americans.
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will happen if Trump fires Mueller? on: October 06, 2017, 12:10:49 pm
If there were a coup, maybe they could put the candidate who actually won the election (by 3 million votes) in the White House?

I really don't think the chances of a coup are high at all.  I think there would be a lot of grumbling from Democrats (probably to a degree never seen before), and some from Republicans too, although not much; the rest of the GOP will back him to the end, or until their poll numbers and reelection odds take a serious dive (which would probably happen).

Trump's approval rating would go even lower (hard to imagine at this point, since he's already almost bottomed out).  Pence would distance himself even more than he's doing now so as not to appear guilty of wrongdoing; Pence would also begin prepping himself to be sworn in as the 46th commander-in-chief.

I'm not sure what route it would take from there, but I do think that should Trump fire Mueller, his days as president are numbered.  Should it happen prior to 2020, then he won't be a candidate for president in 2020.  Either through impeachment, or just declining not to seek reelection, he would not appear on the ballot.

Also, Hillary Clinton would make another round on the airwaves telling the country, "I told you so." And she'd be right (again).

Many people were caught completely off guard in Chile in 1973, including the conservative democrats who had no idea of what to do in the wake of the coup. Chile has institutions similar to ours, and Trump is even more erratic than Allende.

I'd be wary of some of the more reckless talk of President Trump. "Calm before the storm"? The gusts are already zephyrs. People are starting to have shaky gaits.

More dangerous is any unilateral move by President Trump to start a war. North Korea? Iran? Venezuela?

The ambush of American soldiers in Niger (I am guessing that Boko Haram, a nasty organization with ideological ties to ISIS and similar ruthlessness and brutality) could get hit hard. That would be less troublesome, barring overkill.

...The likelihood of a military coup has been nil throughout all of American history until Donald Trump became President. It is now slight. That is a huge change. That's not to say that I want a coup. This country does not need or want a Pinochet. But I can imagine the Joint Chiefs of Staff making clear that senior military officers will not risk becoming war criminals in support of President Trump.   
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will happen if Trump fires Mueller? on: October 06, 2017, 12:19:45 am
Then you'll be seeing this under his name on Wikipedia

January 20th, 2017- October 15th, 2017

You could also see an article

October 2017 coup d'état, United States of America.
133  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The calm before the storm on: October 06, 2017, 12:16:55 am
Seven Days in May.
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 05, 2017, 07:42:23 pm
Trump and hispanics

National
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 76%

Florida
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 64%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-florida-hispanic-poll-trump-20171004-story.html

This may explain how execrably President Trump is doing in Colorado and new Mexico and why he is doing about as badly in Texas as in Iowa and Ohio. 
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will public opinion on guns change this week? on: October 05, 2017, 04:21:32 pm
Bump stocks generate little profit for the firearms industry. Easy sacrifice. 
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest on: October 05, 2017, 04:20:07 pm
Donald Trump (R-Israel)

Jewish daughter (conversion is full Judaism) notwithstanding, Donald Trump may be the worst thing ever to happen to Judaism in America, especially should a war erupt between the USA and Iran. In such a war Israel is cooked -- literally. Trump is opposed to the deal that President Obama made with Iran because his nemesis Obama did it.

This is before I discuss any neo-Nazis, the Klan, or Islamofascists active in America. That includes the 9/11 war crimes, especially in New York City, which surely must have killed a few hundred Jews (in view of the Jews as passengers in the planes and the Twin Towers.

The Zionists know well enough to keep quiet about wars between or among Arabs and Muslims -- even abstaining on the First Gulf War.  
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade Trump's abilities on: October 05, 2017, 02:17:05 pm
"10" is for FDR.

Leadership -    1
Temperament -  1
Speaking Skills -  1
Disaster Management - 2
Integrity - 1
Honesty - 1
Charisma - 5
Personable - 3

Obama

Leadership - 6
Temperament - 9
Speaking Skills - 7
Disaster Management - 10
Integrity - 10
Honesty - 10
Charisma -  6
Personable - 6
I agree with most of your ratings, but how on earth did Obama only get a "7" on speaking skills. He's the best public speaker I have EVER seen. Not as great outside of script, but NOBODY gives a teleprompter speech like Obama. Bill Clinton was better when going off script though.

I have no problem with the Teleprompter speeches. So long as he edited them, they are as valid as off-the-cuff speeches, as well as better.

The problem as a speaker is that he did not win people over. With his overall talents he should have won a landslide in 2012 and not had the Congressional losses that his Party endured in 2010 and 2014.

Obama is not FDR, but he is very good. Within four years people will be ready to vote for another President who has much the same qualities.
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 05, 2017, 11:52:26 am
Virginia, Washington Post:

 Trump, approval 33%[18 strong, 15 somewhat], disapproval 59%[11 somewhat, 48 strong] (registered voters)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/05/National-Politics/Polling/release_495.xml

The focus of this poll is in the gubernatorial race. Northam (D) has an overwhelming 54-41 lead over Gillespie (R), the libertarian getting 4% of the vote.  Gillespie is seen as a Trump supporter, but President Trump is not a factor for 54% of voters -- but support for the President will influence their votes positively for 17% of voters and opposition to him will influence 28% of voters negatively.   
 

Approval



Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.




Disapproval:



60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less



Ties are in white.


[/quote]
139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sen. Rubio: Communist West Point graduate should be booted from military on: October 05, 2017, 04:21:22 am
Go ahead and let him serve. Obviously his ideology is just a fashion statement and has nothing to do with the way he lives his life, if he went to damn West Point.

FWIW Rapone is an active DSA member. His Twitter is currently locked but you can read his (Very good) Medium post on white supremacy at West Point.

I'm really not sure why he chose to join the military if those are his political views. I mean, it's his choice and I strongly disagree with an ideology test for military recruits, but I just don't understand his motivations.

Commies love military shtick, too. They are not pacifists.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the democrat were to win Texas, what would the county map be? on: October 05, 2017, 01:39:21 am
The Democrat intensifies majorities in Harris (Houston), Dallas (Dallas), Bexar (San Antonio), Travis (Austin), and El Paso (El Paso) counties -- and the heavily-Hispanic counties of Far South Texas.  Democrats win Jefferson County (Beaumont), flip Tarrant (Fort Worth and Arlington), the suburban counties (Denton and Collin) north of Dallas and Hays and Williamson counties surrounding Austin. In essence, the Democrat wins the sorts of well-educated suburban voters who went to Obama in 2008 and 2012.     

This?

   

Ancient history, for all practical purposes -- the last time that a Democrat (Carter) won Texas back in 1976. Carter in the 1976 election may have been the last hurrah of the New Deal coalition, at least in Texas. Paradoxically Dallas and Harris counties went for Ford that year... oh, how times change!
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do the dems need to win in 2020? on: October 05, 2017, 01:26:35 am
A free and fair election. President Trump is doing so badly that he and his Party would have to cheat to win.
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Are Gay-Rights Laws Trampling on Freedom of Religion? on: October 05, 2017, 01:23:51 am
No moreso than anti-gay laws. My denomination has gay marriage,  and I strongly believe that being against 100% full equality is a sin.

Being against marriage equality is the right thing based on the whole of scripture. These gay rights laws are an undue infringement on religious freedom.

1. The strictures against  homosexuality are opposition to temple prostitution in pagan religions.

2. The bloodthirsty passages in Leviticus are no longer valid. Jews who accept Kashrut laws in food preparation and consumption often tolerate homosexuality.

3. Jesus demands that we love our neighbor. That includes gays and lesbians.

4. As an adult you have no obligation to participate in a same-sex marriage or visit a house in which the adults are in a same-sex marriage, or to allow a same-sex couple to visit your household.

5. Same-sex rights create a safer world for us all against violent homophobia to which we are all at risk. They do not give anyone the right to mess with children.   
143  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade Trump's abilities on: October 05, 2017, 01:12:23 am
"10" is for FDR.

Leadership -    1
Temperament -  1
Speaking Skills -  1
Disaster Management - 2
Integrity - 1
Honesty - 1
Charisma - 5
Personable - 3

Obama

Leadership - 6
Temperament - 9
Speaking Skills - 7
Disaster Management - 10
Integrity - 10
Honesty - 10
Charisma -  6
Personable - 6
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to forgive all of Puerto Rico's debt??? (can he even do that?) on: October 04, 2017, 04:06:52 pm
The federal government can offer to buy the debt, offering a premium over the market value. Most bond-holders would rather cut their losses rather than risk a default which the federal government cannot guarantee to prevent. 

Considering the status of Puerto Rican debt that premium would still likely be below par value, but again if there's a default you don't even get that

That's the idea. Lots of people would rather sell their junk bonds (many of which were purchased at bargain-basement prices) than gamble that those bonds return to face value.   
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WP: Russians ID'd propaganda-susceptible voters, used FB tool to influence them on: October 04, 2017, 01:21:03 pm
Legal for the Russians, but if persons associated with the Trump campaign or the Republican Party coordinated (and holding onto the Senate majority would be a good enough reason for doing so), then there will be Hell to pay. 
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to forgive all of Puerto Rico's debt??? (can he even do that?) on: October 04, 2017, 01:19:18 pm
The federal government can offer to buy the debt, offering a premium over the market value. Most bond-holders would rather cut their losses rather than risk a default which the federal government cannot guarantee to prevent. 
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NEW STATEPOLLS! WARREN LEADS IN MISSOURI, FLORIDA! on: October 04, 2017, 11:55:41 am
Zogby is literally the worst pollster

Their interactive polls are OK.
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ohio county map predictions? on: October 04, 2017, 11:54:33 am
Bad year for Democrats in Ohio (2016):



The Democrats can't win even Montgomery (Dayton), Trumbull (Warren), or Mahoning (Youngstown) counties. 

Bare Democratic loss (2004):



...but swing Hamilton County (Cincinnati) to the Democrats while swinging Belmont, Monroe, and Jefferson counties on the Ohio River to the Republican.

Bare Democratic win (2012):



The Democrats win all counties on the Ohio Turnpike corridor from Greater Toledo (they do miss heavily-rural Williams and Fulton Counties) to the Pennsylvania state line and the Ohio 11 (that is a freeway) corridor. This is as well as I can see any Democrat doing in 2020, except perhaps for Democrats picking up Clark (Springfield) or Tuscarawas Counties.  2008 was similar.

Ohio may be a swing state, but it takes a real foul-up of a Republican nominee to lose the state this badly:



Goldwater, 1964.

Obama was the slickest and most competent campaigner in recent American history, and he barely won the state twice.

149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More likely to come back home? on: October 04, 2017, 11:32:54 am
Romney-Clinton voters are apparently rare, and they have largely seen their concerns (other than on economics) materialize. Obama-Trump voters are likely to be extremely disappointed.

What Mitt Romney said about Donald Trump has proved true. People who heeded Mitt Romney in 2016 have little cause to regret their votes of 2016. People who thought that Donald Trump would not be 'that bad' have found him 'that bad'... or, if not 'that bad' -- WORSE!

There has never been much support of corruption in America. Cruelty and bigotry, maybe -- as in the Jim Crow South (or as I call it, 'Kukluxistan'). Militarism? Sure. Fifty-four Forty or Fight! Vulgarity? Look at the campaign of Joni Ernst. Sexual license? Bill Clinton got away with it. But corruption? One exposure, and it is electoral defeat at the next opportunity. Bribery or embezzlement? Bye-bye!   
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Somehow, the only 3 choices in 2020 are Trump, Romney, McCain on: October 04, 2017, 09:59:19 am
Will McCain even be around in 2020?
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