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October 24, 2017, 06:26:41 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1987 Labour Leadership (Final Round) on: October 22, 2017, 06:00:58 pm
I guess if Benn loses then that's it for him as far as leadership goes.

Will be interesting to see what the future brings for the likes of Livingstone, Galloway, Corbyn, Nellist and McDonnell in his TL.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1987 Labour Leadership (Final Round) on: October 22, 2017, 02:14:36 pm
Shore, and he should form a new left-nationalist party to contest the next election if Benn wins.

Benn himself was a left-nationalist in some respects.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Millennials Flock to the Mainstream Media on: October 22, 2017, 10:18:45 am
It's probably because news in general is more 'interesting' under the Trump administration, rather than due to solidarity with the mainstream media.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1987 Labour Leadership (Final Round) on: October 22, 2017, 07:31:19 am
Benn/Prescott

And they each should get around 26-27 votes if the votes from the first round move in an entirely logical way (Benn getting most of the Meacher vote, Prescott getting most of the Heffer/Dunwoody vote). But these things can work in strange ways.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The election was not a low-turnout election on: October 20, 2017, 09:47:52 pm
It's amazing how low turnout is in America, given how much people seem to be engaged (though admittedly I'm speaking from an overseas POV).

And if it didn't reach 60% last year (one of the contests of all-time), then it's hard to imagine it doing so in a Kasich vs. Klobuchar match-up or whatever.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1987 Labour Leadership on: October 20, 2017, 07:46:50 pm
Wild prediction for the new cabinet: 

Prime Minister: Tony Benn
Deputy Prime Minister: John Prescott
Chancellor: Eric Heffer
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: John Smith
Home Secretary: Michael Meacher
Foreign Secretary: Peter Shore
Health Secretary: Frank Dobson
Defence Secretary: Robin Cook
Attorney General: Paul Boateng
Trade Secretary: Gordon Brown
Social Security: Neil Kinnock
Scottish Secretary: Donald Dewar
Welsh Secretary: Denzil Davies
Northern Irish Secretary: Mo Mowlam
Leader of the House of Commons: Betty Boothroyd
National Heritage (or whatever it's called then): Richard Caborn


7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1987 Labour Leadership on: October 20, 2017, 08:24:23 am
1. Benn
2. Shore
3. Meacher
4. Hattersley

1. Prescott
2. Heffer
3. Dunwoody
4. Kaufman
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: New Zealand General Discussion: PM Jacinda on: October 19, 2017, 08:26:26 pm
It already feels like the 1970s to much of the millennial generation, hence their voting patterns. The Boomers, in general, had it better, hence they never went more radical in their voting patterns than Gough Whitlam, Eugene McCarthy and Pierre Trudeau.

9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1986 General Election on: October 18, 2017, 10:18:16 pm
Peter Hitchens?
Richard Branson?
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which is the more socially progressive wing? on: October 16, 2017, 07:41:40 pm
Outside of the internet, the "Bernie wing" is to a large extent the insurgent wing that has long existed and has always been out to stop the 'inevitable' candidate from winning the nomination. In 2008 it was the Obama wing, in 2000 the Bradley wing, in 1992 the Moonbeam wing, in 1980 the Teddy wing, in 1968 it was split between McCarthy and RFK. It isn't even always to the left of the other wing - see 1984 for example.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Iron Lady - 1982 Alliance Referendum on: October 16, 2017, 07:11:35 am
It's slightly amazing that they never made Williams the leader of the SDP IRL.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Robert Lafollette v Russ Feingold on: October 16, 2017, 07:09:28 am
Fighting Bob has more of a legacy, so him.

WI seems to be great at producing political figures who are either outstanding or horrific.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: October 15, 2017, 11:39:28 pm
Surely Winston's dislike of ACT is at least partly a matter of principle. They represent Rogernomics, whereas Winston is an old school protectionist.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader? on: October 14, 2017, 08:39:25 pm
A lot depends on how you define 'marginal'. Rochester and Strood, for example, is certainly winnable in a good election for Labour but would be Tory in an average election (the Tory majority in Medway - the predecessor seat - was about the same in 1992 as it is now). A few in that area (the Thanets for example) actually look more rosy for Labour than they did in 1992.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election, 2017 on: October 14, 2017, 07:22:11 pm
Every leader of the SLP since Dewar passed away has been pretty much worthless. Even putting aside the issues that Sarwar may have, Leonard represents a change.
16  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Squeaky Fromme kills Gerald Ford? on: October 13, 2017, 07:25:05 pm
Rockefeller wins re-election on the sympathy/'rally round the flag' bounce, albeit by less than LBJ did. Reagan would likely have sat out 1976.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader? on: October 13, 2017, 01:59:04 pm
The Lib Dem vote declined in 1997. More of the Tory vote that year probably swung to the Referendum Party than to the Lib Dems (even in the South), and even more just stayed home entirely.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most 2020 Dems won't take a position on Universal Basic Income on: October 09, 2017, 07:30:31 am
I've always thought of UBI as being fundamentally a technocratic concept as opposed to a left-wing one per se.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Macron turns into unlikeable working-class-bashing douche on: October 09, 2017, 06:55:44 am
I think this graph may go some way to explaining how Macron can be both a liberal while trying to implement some economic policies that are seen as right wing in France. 

Again, applying the U.S. sense of the word 'liberal' to other countries. Most liberals in Europe are right-wing on economics.
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Emmanuel Macron on: October 07, 2017, 08:44:56 am
Potentially the Roger Douglas of France.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade Trump's abilities on: October 05, 2017, 12:40:28 pm
Leadership - 2
Temperament - 1
Speaking Skills - 4
Disaster Management - 2
Integrity - 1
Honesty - 2 (well, he does at least sometimes genuinely tell us what he's thinking)
Charisma - 7
Personable - 2
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: October 04, 2017, 06:47:05 am
May currently giving a Churchillian speech to her conference.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Winston Churchill? on: October 01, 2017, 06:14:51 am
The political version of Sir Topham Hatt. And given that Sir Topham Hatt scared the sh**t out of me when I was a kid, I have to vote HP.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What happened in 1976 that caused Carters 32 p lead to almost completely vanish? on: September 30, 2017, 12:41:06 pm
The American electorate was a lot more fickle in the 20th century.

- A Dukakis lead of 17% in the summer turned into an 8% Bush victory.
- Perot was leading in the summer of '92
- Nixon held a huge lead following the 1968 DNC, yet came very close to losing
- Truman made a great comeback against the 'inevitable' Dewey
- Even in 1964, Goldwater reduced a 60 or so point LBJ lead into a mere 23-point defeat.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think that Donald Trump is a fascist? on: September 30, 2017, 05:37:13 am
Maybe, but not a very effective one.

The thing about Trump is that he is clearly not succeeding in taking the country in his (or his hardcore supporters' I should say) direction, as evidenced by the polls - Americans are probably now more 'liberal' than they have ever been on issues such as healthcare, immigration, LGBT+ rights etc. This makes him vastly different from the likes of Reagan and FDR, and even (to a lesser extent) George W. Bush.
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