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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Cruz ends up in 3rd place in South Carolina... on: February 17, 2016, 11:15:22 am
Cruz peaked too soon by winning Iowa. Should have tried for 3rd.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In Death, Antonin Scalia May Yet Deny Donald Trump the GOP Nod on: February 16, 2016, 08:49:07 pm
Imagine the pressure this writer must have felt to get this op-ed to press before Trump wins South Carolina by 20.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama himself volunteers to endorse early on: February 16, 2016, 07:32:18 pm
I think this is saying, "I probably will have a preference, but I'll wait until the outcome is fairly clear".
I read it to mean if it plays out like how he wants it, he'll let it continues, but if his non-preferred candidate is gaining, he would throw his support behind his preferred candidate.

Put another way, Obama wants Hillary to win the damn thing herself so he doesn't have to be the one to piss off Sanders supporters.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump "not into anal": Helps him or Hurts him? on: February 16, 2016, 07:28:51 pm
Helps in South Carolina, hurts in Nevada.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Bernie push to dump nuclear waste in a poor Latino community? on: February 16, 2016, 12:36:06 am
Maybe Hillary will bring this up at the next debate and say, "Ahora mismo, diselo si quieres."
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN's Jake Tapper challenges DWS over 'rigged' Superdelegate system on: February 15, 2016, 06:17:18 pm
Once again, Hillary nominated by superdelegates would be a much worse scenario than Sanders as nominee. She'd do worse than McCain.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states would Sanders win in a general election? on: February 15, 2016, 05:52:20 pm
2012 map give or take
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won Bush vs. Trump on: February 15, 2016, 05:27:47 pm
Quote
When asked if the former President Bush could be credited with keeping the U.S. safe after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Trump compared 9/11 happening on Bushs watch to the other team scoring 19 runs in the first inning, but after that we played well.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/02/15/he-is-a-lying-guy-trump-goes-postal-on-cruz-in-rambling-press-conference/


GOP rules: Preventing terror attacks in your first year is the responsibility of the previous president. Filling Supreme Court vacancies in your last year is the responsibility of the next one.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states will Sanders win? on: February 15, 2016, 03:29:05 pm
Do you mean in the primary?
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Floating Third Party Run Again on: February 15, 2016, 03:28:29 pm
He won NH by 20. He's leading SC polls by 20. He's leading national polls by 20. He's threatening to run 3rd party. One thing Trump is right about is how boring the race would be without him.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Karl Rove's new sneaky attack ad against Hillary on: February 15, 2016, 01:12:26 am
I know I shouldn't be surprised by anything that happens this election cycle anymore but I just watched a single ad that simultaneously helps the candidates in each party who are blowing the whistle on big donors ruining democracy. And it was paid for by big donors put together by Karl Rove.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is there ANY chance Jeb drops out after SC? on: February 14, 2016, 09:10:02 pm
3 home states in 2 weeks: Texas 3/1, Maine 3/5, Florida 3/15. May as well try.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won Bush vs. Trump on: February 14, 2016, 03:01:50 pm
Trump helped himself by helping Bush, who could be knocked out by a poor South Carolina performance. That said, I don't think it's some brilliant strategic maneuver by Trump. I think Trump is more of an instant gratification candidate who tries to look strong by attacking the weakest, most vulnerable member of the establishment herd, but in doing so, might get lucky, by driving mainstreamers to rally to W's defense which will leverage his campaigning for Jeb next week and give him a shot at topping Kasich and Rubio. I think Trump bumbled his way to a smart strategy.


Folks will vote for Jeb for the sole reason they thought Trump went too far in embracing left wing kookery about Dubya, so they will vote for Jeb to affirm Dubya?

Exactly. It'll make mainstream voters feel that old, familiar feeling about W. It'll be like the mirror image of Hillary using Sanders's past criticisms of Obama and partisans' protectiveness of him to her advantage.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won Bush vs. Trump on: February 14, 2016, 02:53:18 pm
Trump helped himself by helping Bush, who could be knocked out by a poor South Carolina performance. That said, I don't think it's some brilliant strategic maneuver by Trump. I think Trump is more of an instant gratification candidate who tries to look strong by attacking the weakest, most vulnerable member of the establishment herd, but in doing so, might get lucky, by driving mainstreamers to rally to W's defense which will leverage his campaigning for Jeb next week and give him a shot at topping Kasich and Rubio. I think Trump bumbled his way to a smart strategy.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the fact that Bernie Sanders is 75 years old bother you? on: February 14, 2016, 09:19:45 am
No. He turns 75 in September. Hillary (like Reagan) would start a 2nd term at 73. It's fine.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump can use Iraq against Hillary in the general on: February 13, 2016, 11:56:51 pm
There's a reasonable case that Trump would be the strongest Republican nominee of the 6 left.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What did Rafael Eduardo Cruz say en espanol during the debate? on: February 13, 2016, 11:29:21 pm
Cruz's Spanish seemed fine. He may not be as fluent as Rubio but maybe he speaks better than he wants to let on to GOP primary voters and Rubio tricked him into revealing that?
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What did Rafael Eduardo Cruz say en espanol during the debate? on: February 13, 2016, 11:26:08 pm
"Tell me right now in Spanish if you want to."
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the debate tonight? on: February 13, 2016, 11:21:59 pm
Trump because he was handed a great story to go off on.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/13/10987776/republican-debate-audience-booing
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Antonin Scalia's Death and the Democratic Primary on: February 13, 2016, 08:29:59 pm
Bernie because he does better in general election polls

For the 150th time, GE polls when the primaries aren't decided are meaningless.

Even actual electability is meaningless as far as this question is concerned. All that matters is perception of risk and it will be fairly easy for Hillary to convince people Bernie is the bigger risk. There's a decent chance the primary effectively ended today.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Antonin Scalia's Death and the Democratic Primary on: February 13, 2016, 08:16:40 pm
It'll make Democrats (and Republicans) more risk-averse, which helps Hillary. And the chance of her picking as a running mate a senator whose seat the GOP could pick up just plummeted.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scalia just died (really). How will this affect the race? on: February 13, 2016, 05:17:18 pm
So the GOP will block any appointment until the election, right?

Definitely.
173  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia dead at 79 on: February 13, 2016, 04:58:30 pm
Holy Christ
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker un-suspends campaign... consequences? on: February 13, 2016, 04:39:23 pm
Disastrous debate tonight, immediately re-suspends his campaign.

It'd be hilarious after saying God told him to drop out and inspire others to do the same.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DWS: superdelegates exist to stop grassroot activists on: February 13, 2016, 05:53:16 am
She can't win the nomination with super-delegates and then win in November. This is why she was blocked from winning with them in 2008. Since she has attacked Sanders as disloyal to Obama, he may as well remind South Carolina she tried to do that. If she relies on superdelegates to be nominated, she surrenders the electability argument to Sanders. (in Debbie's defense, she's not the one who created super-delegates. Still, a Clinton loyalist shouldn't be chairwoman during this primary.)

Yeah, I don't think anyone who wants the Democratic party to win in November wants the nominee to win the primary just because of superdelegates.

Primary battles are overrated when it comes to the general. By November anyone who really cares about the future of the country, and is in a battleground state, will pick one of the viable candidates. Hillary herself is a great example. She won the most votes but was still denied the nomination; nonetheless did you see her endorsement and nonstop campaigning for Obama in 2008? She was on fire!

Hillary only 'won the most votes' because caucus votes weren't counted.

Caucuses aren't real votes.

In primaries where they were both on the ballot, Obama beat Hillary in the popular vote.
She did try to use superdelegates in 2008 to be the nominee anyway but the party recognized how disastrous it would be for them. If she did now she'd lose to even Trump or Cruz.
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