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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: October 18, 2017, 12:23:02 pm

Dems get top candidate in FL-16 to challenge Vern Buchanan. While this is a 54-43 Trump and 54-45 Romney district, it seems like a good candidate who has a high profile and could potentially self fund.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20171018/buchanan-draws-prominent-democratic-opponent
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Fundraising Megathread on: October 16, 2017, 11:51:02 am
Charlie Crist raised $353K in the third quarter and now has $1.4M in cash on hand.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/247002-charlie-crist-adds-353k-q3-re-election-fund
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: October 10, 2017, 04:49:46 pm
As a reminder, in the last florida special two weeks ago, the Republican candidate won the first wave of the early vote by high single digits, and continued to lead in the overall tally until the election day votes started coming in. Don't panic until it's actually justified to do so.

The chances of a democratic pick up are minimal. I would be surprised if this race was even within 10 points.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Approximately 100,000 Puerto Ricans Expected to Relocate on: October 10, 2017, 07:05:55 am
Quote
In Florida alone, which already has a population of one million Puerto Ricans, up to 100,000 people are expected to arrive in the Orlando area and Tampa Bay.

Link says the 100,000 are just in Orlando and Tampa. That would be big.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: October 06, 2017, 02:52:18 pm

YIKES!
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Flake America Great Again on: October 05, 2017, 11:28:09 am
While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD-Mason-Dixon: Hogan leads all opponents on: October 04, 2017, 01:38:44 pm
If Hogan can't get 50% with 61% approvals that doesn't bode well. All the Dems have to do is connect him to Trump and it's over.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's Katrina: The ongoing crisis in Puerto Rico on: October 03, 2017, 02:59:52 pm
Trump’s visit to PR is an utter disaster right now. He straight up told them he blamed the territory for throwing us into some sort of “economic predicament” and did his “around the table praise me” icebreaker.

Puerto Ricans can't vote for President. He doesn't care.

They can if they move to Florida, which many of them will.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 26, 2017, 08:28:30 pm
SD40 win in Florida is a massive boost for morale for Florida Democrats. Nobody really thought she would win and she was outspent handily. South Florida will be a battleground ripe for pick ups in 2018.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: LAT: Trump positioned to impose potentially crushing tariffs on solar industry on: September 26, 2017, 12:14:39 pm
Great. Coal is a better energy source, and it makes the liberals mad, which is a plus.

I know you're a newbie, but if you're going to troll, at least be good at it.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL Sen 2018-Does Irma help, hurt make no difference in Scott's chances? on: September 25, 2017, 10:52:21 am
Scott received good praise during and immediately following the storm, however he has poorly handled coverage of the assisted living facility where 10 people died. I would say it's a wash.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mccain announces he won't vote for Graham-Cassidy bill. on: September 22, 2017, 01:28:13 pm
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Parliamentarian rules reconciliation expires September 30 on: September 22, 2017, 01:13:10 pm
So does this mean Murkowski is a no as well?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-MRG: Stabenow +18 on: September 21, 2017, 07:55:10 am
Great poll! Thank you Debbie Spend-it-now!
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hillary Clinton's "What Happened" sells more than 300,000 copies in first week. on: September 20, 2017, 02:23:45 pm
It's actually a well written book. I'm only a little bit into it so far but I'm enjoying it. I'm not even a Hillary stan but I received it as a gift and I've really enjoyed it so far.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Charlie Crist win reelection? on: September 20, 2017, 02:00:13 pm
Charlie Crist, in all of his races, has never lost Pinellas County. Not even in 2010 when he ran as an independent. He will host this seat for as long as he wants. You just can't beat retail Charlie.

Edit: I take that back, he lost it in his 1998 Senate race against Bob Graham. But it was Bob Graham so come on.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) to retire on: September 07, 2017, 06:29:36 pm
These are the types of retirements the GOP certainly doesn't want.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump splits with GOP to support Democrats' plan on debt ceiling. on: September 06, 2017, 01:10:52 pm
The GOP legislative agenda suffers a huge setback. Now they'll have to return to this issue in 3 months. Big win for the Dems.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama attacks Trump over ending DACA on: September 05, 2017, 02:52:33 pm
FF!
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread on: September 05, 2017, 01:18:55 pm
Both Miami-Dade and Monroe counties will begin evacuations tomorrow.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread on: September 05, 2017, 10:19:20 am
From what I've seen, people are already very nervous. I'm in the Tampa area and many grocery stores and hardware stores are already out of water/batteries/generators/etc. Many plan on restocking but most people are taking this storm seriously.

Depending on if/when evacuations need to occur, the roads will be jammed. Hopefully if evacuations are needed they will quickly reroute the south bound highway lanes going north so more people can get out of the way.

22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 28, 2017, 10:11:33 pm
Trump in FL:

Approve 37
Disapprove 47
https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2017-08-28_BEPI_Results_with_Toplines.pdf
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 25, 2017, 03:15:24 pm
Quote
President Trump approval rating in Michigan below 30 percent, MSU survey finds

MSU's State of the State Survey, issued periodically by the university's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, found 28 percent of survey respondents rated Trump "excellent" or "good" when asked to rate Trump's job performance. 51 percent of survey respondents gave Trump a "poor" rating, MSU professor and State of the State director Charles Ballard said.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/trump_approval_rating_in_michi.html


Wow. Total flop.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 15, 2017, 02:03:58 pm
Quote
John Harwood‏Verified account
@JohnJHarwood

new Gallup Poll, approve-disapprove of Trump by age:

18-29, 25%-68%
30-49, 33%-62%
50-64, 36%-59%
65+, 41%-53%

Millennials FTW
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: August 08, 2017, 07:41:10 pm
Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!

Is absentee voting not a a regular thing in MO? This seems like very low numbers
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