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51  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: June 08, 2017, 07:43:10 am
When do congressional Republicans begin backing away from Trump? Mid 30s approval is low but what does it need to be in order for mainstream republicans to distance themselves? I'm not referring to moderates like Ros-Lehtinen or Comstock who are already distancing themselves.
52  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Org launches budget 'American Idea' hotel chain on: June 06, 2017, 07:05:41 am
I'm certainly not a Trump fan but I think this is a cool idea. That being said I would not stay in one specifically because it's a Trump Org hotel.
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TheIntercept: Russia literally tried to hack the election on: June 05, 2017, 04:28:18 pm
The woman's name is Reality Winner? LOL
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM - Tarrance Group (R): Lujan-Grisham 47 - Pearce 43 on: June 02, 2017, 04:57:15 pm
D+1
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to pull out of Paris Agreement despite the Free Market not wanting too on: May 31, 2017, 10:34:28 am
The U.S. continues to take a step back from leading the world stage.

China and Russia are smiling bigly!
56  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 26, 2017, 07:30:34 am

Wow these are awesome, thank you.

I'm a little biased but I can't help but notice how Florida sticks out so much in the 2015-2016 and 2010-2016 percentage change map. Central Florida both Orlando and Tampa are seeing huge influxes of population. It will be interesting how this changes things politically.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 09:29:06 pm
Quist is going to get Fairfax'd in a few seconds.

What county does that correlate to?
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 09:06:21 pm
That's expected though right?
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread on: May 25, 2017, 09:03:07 pm
Pianoforte 48%
Quist 46%
Wicks 5%
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread on: May 25, 2017, 09:22:09 am
Quist: 53
Pianoforte: 43
Wicks: 4

Umm I wish but no.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 07:13:43 am
With 2/3rds of Montanans already voting, did this come too late for Quist?
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: May 23, 2017, 09:27:47 pm
Nice. Both flipped seats will be hard to hold but still good temporary pick ups, shows Dems are motivated to vote.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: May 22, 2017, 07:52:41 pm
Most of the attacks on Ossoff have backfired horribly.

Case in point. I mean, this is really kind of sad. 

Wow that's really bad.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DCCC expands their target list on: May 22, 2017, 12:02:32 pm
FL-06 isn't happening barring, they're probably putting this seat on the list to encourage DeSantis to challenge Rick Scott in the Senate primary. This isn't a seat I would see being in play.

FL-16 could potentially be in play with a strong recruit but I don't think a strong enough recruit exists. Trump won this seat by 11%ish so this would be a challenge. I could see Vern retiring though and maybe that would change something.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: May 18, 2017, 07:10:39 am
Someone on the ground may be able to answer this but is Handel running a poor campaign?
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 17, 2017, 07:15:10 am
Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?
67  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CBS: Kushner advocated Comey's firing; Trump angry the move caused a firestrom on: May 17, 2017, 07:07:51 am
I think Kushner's inexperience has certainly impacted Trump's decisions on multiple occasions. I wonder which crises Trump could have avoided had he listened to his politically experienced senior advisors over Kushner.
68  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Trump Asked Comey to End Flynn Investigation on: May 16, 2017, 04:36:55 pm
The end seems to be near...
69  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Western Wall on: May 16, 2017, 02:16:12 pm
This White House is such a mess. Downward spiral.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread on: May 16, 2017, 10:22:29 am
The S.S. Trumptanic has hit an iceberg and, unfortunately, vulnerable republicans are in third class and will go down with the ship.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Florida in 2020 if Felon Restoration Passes in 2018 on: May 14, 2017, 01:02:20 pm
It is a long shot but Florida could have the opportunity to pass a felon restoration amendment in 2018 if they get enough signatures approved by Feb 2018. This amendment would restore voting rights to 1.6 million Floridians. While turnout among this group would probably be very low in 2020(if the amendment passes), it has the opportunity to change the political landscape. In addition, one in five African Americans in Florida are effected by this.

How would this influx of new voters change Florida in 2020?

Info: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)


*** mod note (5/14/2017): fixed your link - the ')' at the end was cut off due to forum quirks
72  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who will be the 8th F.B.I. Director? on: May 12, 2017, 12:29:44 pm
Wonder if Pam Bondi is in the running?
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: May 12, 2017, 07:08:19 am
Early voting locations for the runoff have been set.  There will be a total of 13: 5 in DeKalb County, 6 in Fulton, and 2 in Cobb.  The first round had 8 locations (2 DeKalb, 4 Fulton, 2 Cobb).  These locations are determined by each county's board of elections. 

http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/more-early-voting-sites-open-democrat-leaning-areas-for-6th-district-race/HGLMZduehJL8snLqtt4C4O/

Wow three extra sites in DeKalb is pretty big. Which county had the lowest turnout in the first round?


74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: May 11, 2017, 07:32:14 am
Interesting article about FL-15. While this seat isn't on the competitive radar, the fact that it has multiple democratic candidates this early is promising. IIRC Dennis Ross ran unopposed in 2012 so even just having someone is better than Democrats have done in the past.

This seat swung heavily toward Trump (56-39) but Romney only won it 52-46. These are the types of seats that need to be challenged even if the prospect of winning is slim.

http://saintpetersblog.com/cd-15-hopeful-greg-pilkington-believes-2018-will-big-democrats-including/
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread on: May 10, 2017, 05:14:14 pm
Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter
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