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601  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA! on: November 19, 2012, 12:01:33 am
Bucking the swing of the rest of the South and actually giving Obama an improvement.  



What happened around N.O.?  Did everyone move back?  Either way, awesome stuff from my 2nd favorite major U.S. city, I guess 2008 was a GOP candidate maxed out.  



for the sake of reminiscing, here's me and my crew at the Katrina recovery effort in 2009.   

Possible that much of the Black population who was displaced from Hurricane Katrina returned.  It could also be amongst the white population there was a slight improvement (In Alabama Obama went up slightly according to the exit polls) as many of the older more racist ones have died in the last four years while the younger ones who became of age vote on issue not race, albeit considering how heavily the white vote in the rest of the country swung against Obama I am skeptical of this.  Mind you McCain got close to 85% of the white vote in Louisiana in 2008 meaning there really wasn't much room for growth left to being with.
602  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Orange County precinct map on: November 18, 2012, 11:58:21 pm
Obama most certainly won the Vietnamese vote. Democrats usually win the Vietnamese vote in San Jose (and I suspect the PacNW but I'm not certain), but usually lose it in Orange County. This time he won it in both places.

I am guessing they won every Asian subgroup as usually the Vietnamese, Filipinos, and Koreans have tended to lean GOP, whereas Chinese and Japanese leaned Democrat.  The East Indian which are the fastest growing have tended to vote more heavily Democrat than any of the other Asian groups thus that might explain why it is harder to win the Asian vote than 20 years ago (Both Reagan and Bush Sr. won the Asian vote both times).  In fact of the non-white groups, I am thinking the Cubans were probably the only one the GOP carried and even there it was just barely.  Possible albeit unlikely they carried the native Hawaiian who tend to be quite conservative and also the Cherokee as Oklahoma is 15% Cherokee and went massively Republican. 
603  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 had a historically low # of close states for such a close national race on: November 18, 2012, 11:54:21 pm
http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2012/11/death_of_the_battlegrounds_the.php

Quote
The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the modern two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

The national race was very close, yet only 5 states were decided by 5 points or less.  Things sure have changed a lot since 1976, when we had a whopping 20 states with margins of 5 points or less....including California, Texas, and New York.  Imagine how wild that race would have been to follow if modern polling and the internet had existed back then.


The country is also a lot more polarized today so if everyone around you despises a certain party/ideology, there is a good chance you will fall in line.  Also lets remember back then a 10 point swing over a month's period was not uncommon whereas today you will notice only a small number of voters swung between parties; generally the Democrats and Republicans had a firm 47% base who would vote for them no matter what and only 6% up for grabs, whereas back then the number of firm supporters was likely under 40% for both parties. 
604  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How much of the racial voting differences are simply due to age and income? on: November 18, 2012, 11:52:05 pm
You have it backwards. The age gap is because of race. Not vice versa.

Partially true although amongst whites 18-29 it was a lot closer than amongst older whites never mind I suspect Romney's huge majority amongst whites 18-29 in the South probably skewed the results somewhat too.  Lets remember in the New England states and Pacific Northwest or even Upper Midwest which are fairly white, Obama did much better amongst younger voters than older ones.  Off course this is not unique to the US.  In Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, parties on the left tend to do better amongst younger voters than older voters.  In the 2005 British election, the Conservatives came in third at under 20% amongst the under 30 crowd while won the over 50 crowd.  Likewise here in Canada, the NDP (left wing party) won the under 30 vote while the Conservatives got close to 50% amongst the over 65 crowd.  People tend to be more idealistic when young while get pragmatic and also more resistent to change as they get older.  Also the marriage gap may be a reason too since amongst married men vs. married women, there wasn't much difference, whereas amongst unmarried women; Obama did significantly better than unmarried men although he won both and those groups would be highest amongst the young and the old.
605  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Obama win any European ethnicities on: November 18, 2012, 11:47:25 pm
I'm almost certain Obama won people of Scottish ancestry. It's the wealthiest ancestry group in the country, but they're heavily concentrated in New England and the rich-liberal parts of the NYC area.

OTOH, I seriously doubt Obama won Hungarians. True, most Hungarians in the US are Jews, but they're heavily Hasidic Jews, who vote overwhelmingly Republican in Presidential elections (like 90% McCain, probably similar for Romney). I don't think there are that many Reform or Conservative Jews from Hungary, and those are the Jewish groups that vote Democratic (plus Orthodox Jews outside of the NYC area).

There are very few self-IDed people of English ancestry in the South. It's basically New England (+upstate NY) and the Mormons. I think New England English would outvote the Mormons, but it's hard to say for certain.

I'm pretty sure of the recent European immigrants, Bosnians voted for Obama... Though I have no numbers to back that up.

They're Muslims. It would be shocking if they weren't at least 75% Obama, given recent trends.

It is true New England has the highest number of people of Scottish ancestry much like English thus Obama would win there, but I think the Mormon states are quite high as well as in the South it is above the national average and considering the GOP wins amongst the whites are much larger 80-20 or 75-25 as opposed to 60-40 than the South, I am pretty sure Romney won those of Scottish ancestry never mind pretty much everywhere in the US has at least 1-2% of Scottish ancestry.  I guess if you go by self-identified you might be right as many in the South identify as "American" as opposed to Scottish and in the Midwest most probably have some German, English, Irish or some other ancestry that makes up a greater part of their heritage and thus identify with that group.
606  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Obama win any European ethnicities on: November 18, 2012, 11:43:37 pm
I also wonder how Obama did amongst whites born outside the US.  In Canada and Europe the population overwhelmingly wanted Obama to win yet many from those countries tend to assimilate fairly quickly especially if they come from an English speaking country or came as a child.  My guess is Obama did better amongst Whites born outside of the US than born in the US, but I don't think it would have been nearly as lopsided as the polls in their home countries were for who they wanted to win.  After all I know anicdotally there were several Canadians living in the US who voted for Romney despite the fact only 10% in Canada wanted Romney to win.

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.
607  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Centre County, Pennsylvania on: November 18, 2012, 11:39:12 pm
CNN shows Romney winning it by 20 votes but could go either way.  Good barometer for young voter turnout as outside of State College I imagine it votes heavily Republican like the rest of the Central Tier of Pennsylvania but usually the Democrats do really well amongst college students.
608  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: States unanimous in counties on: November 18, 2012, 11:36:45 pm
Has West Virginia ever gone solidly Republican in every county before?  This was not too long ago a fairly Democrat state.  After all it was the only state Dukakis carried that Obama didn't and likewise Clinton carried it twice.  Mondale and McGovern may have not won the state but they did better than Obama did in 2012.  Mind you a lot probably has to do with the fact the Democrats traditionally were strongest in the coal areas and Obama is seen as the antithesis of coal production.  Interestingly enough in Ohio he had a strong second place in the coal counties and he only narrowly won those in 2008 so it seems the swing there was much weaker than West Virginia and Pennsylvania; in fact had it been as strong as West Virginia it might have hurt his chances at winning Ohio.
609  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Broken county streaks on: November 18, 2012, 10:35:06 pm
I think the two rural counties in Middle Tennessee which went for Obama in 2008 I believe went GOP for the first time in a long time if ever.  Also Chataqua County, New York didn't back the winner for the first time since 1952.
610  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Did Obama win any European ethnicities on: November 18, 2012, 10:31:44 pm
I know Romney won the white vote by 20%, but I wonder if you broke it down by ethnicity if Obama would have won any of them.  Here is my thinking

Possible but probably not - Norwegian, Swedish, and Finnish (I know he didn't win the Danish of the Scandinavians but it seems he did well in areas the other three are large), Polish, Czechs, Slovaks, Italians, and French.  Belgians and Austrians are possibilities although due to limited data tough to say.

Amongst those from Southern and Eastern Europe, most are in blue states, but Romney did win the white vote in most of those although I believe the Democrats have traditionally done well amongst those groups.  The French is kind of tough as in Louisiana I am sure it went heavily Republican, but in the New England states I suspect Obama won that group.

Likely won: Russians (most are Jewish), Hungarians (high number of Jewish and mostly in urban areas), Southeastern Europeans (asides from the Slovenians and even that he may have won, most came in the last 50 years and in largely in the big cities), Portuguese (Most are in Hawaii, California, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts and Obama won the white vote in 3 of the 4 states mentioned), Greeks (Usually in big cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles and few in the rural areas), Spanish (they are counted as Hispanic anyways I believe); and Middle Eastern (Turkish, Arab, and Iranian which in most countries are counted as minorities rather than white, but I think I saw a poll showing 60-70% of them went Democrat).

Lost: Danish, Germans, Dutch, English, Welsh, Scottish, Scots-Irish, Irish, and Swiss

Those groups are mostly in heavily Republican areas in anyways.  Danish include a large number of Mormons; Germans are probably close to the white average as not many in the South where Obama did worst amongst whites but no many either in New England where he did best.  I am guessing it was a 60-40 amongst them.  Dutch are quite rural and in the case of Michigan and Iowa the areas where they settled the most heavily went mostly heavily GOP.  English are strongest in New England, Mormon areas of the Mountain West and the South so 2 of the 3 are staunchly GOP while only one favours the Dems  Scots-Irish if I had to guess were probably the group that went most massively Republican of all white groups.  Irish may have historically favoured the Democrats and it is true some centers where they are most noticeable like Chicago and Boston still go Democrat, but considering how they are over 5% pretty much everywhere in the US I find it hard to believe Romney didn't win here.

Off course nowadays ethnicity doesn't matter but still location of where they settled has an impact as well as 80% of children vote the same way as their parents.
611  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Iowa on: November 18, 2012, 10:20:12 pm
It is a landlocked state, lacks a large metropolitan areas (Minnesota has Minneapolis and Wisconsin has Milwaukee which are much larger than Des Moines) and is one of only a handful of states that are over 90% white so asides from tradition, is there any particular reason the Democrats are still competitive here?
612  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Vermont on: November 18, 2012, 10:18:35 pm
Vermont is the whitest state in the union, one of the least urbanized yet it is the bluest of the lower 48 excluding DC.  Why is this?  I understand why it would go Democrat but the size of the margin seems quite big and it is not as though it is a poor state either.  In Britain and Canada the areas that go heavily for parties on the left that are overwhelmingly white and rural tend to be quite poor, not near or above the national average income.  If it were like Maine or New Hampshire where the GOP gets over 40% that would at least make some sense.  And also Vermont used to be one of the safest GOP states so is it more of anti-Southern state, otherwise it goes against whichever party dominates the South.
613  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Questions by state on: November 18, 2012, 10:15:18 pm
I know I have a lot of questions, so instead of clogging up the forum with separate ones, I thought I would put them all in one, but feel free to just answer anyone of them, so here they are below.

Washington: How come Jefferson County is so heavily Democratic, similiar to King County and San Juan County which make sense, but why is not your typical Dems in the 50s and GOP in the 40s like the rest of Western Washington.

California: How come Santa Cruz County goes almost 80% Democrat as I don't think its minority population is any higher than the statewide average and it is a smaller urban centre, not a large one like San Francisco

Hawaii: How come Honolulu county is consistently the GOP's best showing in the state as this is the most urban county?

Arizona: How come Pima County usually goes Democrat while Maricopa County usually goes Republican as I thought the results in both counties would be similiar on average.

Montana:  How come Silver Bow County and Deer Lodge County still go massively Democrat since most other White Working class counties have swung over the Republicans but not here.

New Mexico: How come some Northern counties go over 75% Democrat since I know they have a large Latino population but this would either mean they are winning big amongst the non-Hispanic white population or the Latino population is going close to 90% Democrat.

Texas: Why is Austin so liberal compared to the rest of the state?  Any special reason.

Wisconsin: I know Dane County is strongly Democrat, but how come despite not being a small urban centre and very white, the Democrats routinely get over 70% here as opposed to say a 60-40 split.  And also how come the Milwaukee suburbs going usually over 60% GOP, while the rural areas are quite competitive; usually it is the suburbs that are competitive while rural areas that go heavily GOP.

Indiana:  Whats up with Perry County going Democrat as it is not part of the Rust Belt in the north, lacks a major urban centre, and is very white.

Ohio:  I know Ohio State University is in Athens County but 66-31 for Obama seems big, is the university the main employer of the county?  And also how come Ashtabula County which is fairly rural and white goes Democrat by more than 10 points.

New Hampshire: How come the GOP does best in the southeast which is the most heavily populated part of the state as opposed to the North or southwest which are far more rural.

Vermont: How come the GOP's best results are the border towns with Canada as they are right next to the most left wing Canadian province of Quebec so I would have thought like neighboring New York they would go more heavily Democrat not less.  The numbers are their own make sense, just not why they are more Republican than the rest of the state.

Massachusetts:  Whats it with Berkshire County going more than 75% Democrat as it is fairly rural and very white.  Yes I know it is in New England, but still over 40% of whites in New England voted for Romney and I would suspect in the urban centres the white vote would be more heavily Democrat than the rural areas.  This went almost as heavily Democrat as Boston which doesn't make sense.

North Carolina: How come Buncombe County went Democrat as I believe it is fairly white compared to most of the state and also in the case of Orange County the Democrat margin seems like the type you would expect in a minority-majority county in the South, not one like this

Georgia: What is the reason Clarke County goes so heavily Democrat.

Any answers to any of these would be appreciated, don't bother trying to answer all of them.
614  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Franklin County, KY on: November 18, 2012, 10:01:51 pm
My guess is it has to do with a state capital as they have a high number of civil servants and likewise a higher rate of unionization.  Could be wrong but it might be a backlash to the GOP anti-union stances.  Off course I think the GOP anti-union stances probably helped them more than hurt on a whole, but they would have gained from this more in the suburban areas and smaller towns, while hurt in the large urban centres.
615  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Chicago - Precinct Data on: November 18, 2012, 10:00:06 pm
I know Obama won big amongst African-Americans, but I am quite surprised to see he got 100% in some precincts as I believe around 6% of African-Americans and over 10% amongst African-American males voted for Romney.  Or could it be the African-Americans who voted for Romney are the more well off ones who live in the suburbs where their numbers are much smaller so tough to gage how they vote?
616  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Southeast PA town map on: November 18, 2012, 09:58:18 pm
Did Obama win any of the municipalities that were over 95% white and likewise did Romney win any where the white population was under 80%?
617  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Bucks County, Pennsylvania on: November 18, 2012, 09:57:00 pm
I think Bucks County is the wealthiest of the Philadelphia suburbs, also it is the whitest too.  If I am not mistaken I believe Obama did worse amongst whites in Pennsylvania than Kerry, the big difference is turnout and share of the electorate amongst non-whites was up from 2004.  Likewise I believe Montgomery County is more middle class while Delaware County has a larger minority population although I suspect Obama probably narrowly won the white vote in both.
618  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Northern New York on: November 18, 2012, 09:55:03 pm
I suspect a lot has to do with the type of Republicans here.  Many are moderate Republicans who probably think the party has swung too far to the right.  As for why it didn't happen earlier, my only guess is many people are loyal to a certain party and always vote for it no matter what; much like whites in the South didn't swing to the Democrats overnight, it took time; so the older voters continued to vote GOP out of tradition, but as they died off, they weren't able to replace them with newer voters as the newer voters voted more based on ideology rather than tradition.  Otherwise every four years, some of the older voters die and some new one's either through becoming of age or naturalization (not really a factor here) are eligible to vote so you have to take this into account. 
619  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Alaska Results Map by House District on: November 18, 2012, 09:51:59 pm
I am guessing a lot of areas that went for Obama are Native American majority areas or close to, but how come Bush won those areas.  Did Bush do better amongst Native Americans or did they just not show up in large numbers in 2000 and 2004?
620  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Shelby County, TN Presidential Results - Precinct Map on: November 18, 2012, 09:50:29 pm
Do you have a racial breakdown.  I somehow suspect most of the Obama precincts are either majority African-American or at least over 40% African-American.  A college campus is the only area I could see him winning where it is over 60% white.
621  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 500k+ metros for Romney on: November 18, 2012, 09:48:53 pm
38. Melbourne

What?

Besides that, the only surprises on this list are Pittsburgh (well, it wasn't surprising after watching Obama further collapse in SWPA) and Atlanta (the metro area must take in far, far more hinterlands than I realized).

Charlotte is also a surprise. It must take in a lot more than Mecklenburg, Gaston, Lincoln, Cabarrus, Union and York County, SC.

You have a strong urban vs. suburban/exurban split otherwise the city itself probably went for Obama with over 2/3 while the suburbs are generally over 60% GOP.
622  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 500k+ metros for Romney on: November 18, 2012, 09:47:50 pm
1. Dallas
2. Houston
3. Atlanta - You would have to go out pretty far for this.  If you take just the built up areas, I am pretty sure Obama won.
4. Phoenix
5. Pittsburgh - Romney won SW Pennsylvania, but if you just take the built up areas of Pittsburgh I think Obama won albeit by a rather small margin compared to what the Democrats usually win by.
6. San Antonio
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas City - Johnson County, Missouri and Wyandotte County contain a large chunk of the metro population and they would solidly for Obama so I doubt he won the KC metro area unless you are using the media market area which maybe Romney did
9. Charlotte
10. Indianapolis - Marion County went for Obama by more than 20 points and I believe the majority of the Indianapolis metro area lives in Marion County.  Yes the surrouding counties went heavily for Romney but not likely enough to cancel out Obama's strength in Marion County.
11. Nashville
12. Jacksonville
13. Louisville
14. Oklahoma City
15. New Orleans
16. Salt Lake City
17 Birmingham
18. Tulsa
19. Fresno
20. Omaha
21. Bakersfield
22. Dayton
23. Baton Rouge
24. Grand Rapids
25. Little Rock
26. Sarasota
27. Knoxville
28. Charleston
29. Colorado Springs
30. Greenville
31. Fort Myers
32. Boise
33. Wichita
34. Lakeland
35. Augusta
36. Ogden
37. Harrisburg
38. Melbourne
39. Provo
40. Chattanooga
41. Lancaster

Asides from those pointed above, not much argument.  It also depends on how far out you stretch the metro area since the further you take anyone out the better it will be for Romney.  Area you just taking the continuous built up areas, any community within commuting distance, or the greater media market as depending which of those three you use you would get different results.
623  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Orange County precinct map on: November 18, 2012, 09:41:29 pm
Wow, those are huge swings towards Obama in the Vietnamese areas. Most of them were 55-60% McCain, now in some areas as much as 60% Obama. McCain probably overperformed in 2008, but this has to be by far the best Democratic performance with Vietnamese voters since before the Vietnam War.

I wonder if Obama won the Vietnamese vote as I know amongst Asians they tend to vote most heavily GOP whereas East Indians are the strongest for the Democrats.  That would be something if he did since if I am not mistaken this group has always favoured the GOP.
624  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How much of the racial voting differences are simply due to age and income? on: November 18, 2012, 09:38:51 pm
Age and income are part of it, but even excluding those, I think there is still a racial gap.  Lets remember amongst whites 18-29 Romney won this 54-45% while overall it was 60-38%.  Now I wouldn't be surprised if Obama would have won the electoral vote for whites 18-29 as I suspect he would have narrowly carried that group in most Northern states and more solidy in the Pacific Northwest and New England states, while got clobbered amongst whites 18-29 in the South.  I think if you take the South out of the picture where racial divisions are still quite strong, some of the difference could be simply where minorities live.  In the large urban centres, I suspect Obama won the white vote, whereas in rural areas that went GOP the minority population is quite small and generally people who live in smaller communities tend to be more conservative than those living in large urban centres.  Still the gap does exists even when you include other factors.
625  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who will win Florida? on: November 06, 2012, 01:28:11 am
Even if takes longer for all the votes to come in those counties, I am thinking more of early leads as the polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern time everywhere except the panhandle thus the first precincts will exclude that part of the state which tends to vote massively Republican i.e. over 70%.  I believe that is partly why they mistakenly called Florida for Gore in 2000 as the panhandle hadn't closed yet when they called it for him.  Also the northern parts of the state are more like the Deep South thus while the South maybe swinging towards the Democrats, the North is becoming more Republican like much of the South, whereas the Southern parts of the state from a cultural perspective are far more Northeastern than Southern.
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