Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 23, 2017, 06:04:07 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 389
51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Virginia and Colorado winnable for Trump? on: July 02, 2017, 03:30:20 pm
For Trump, no. For a different Republican, sure, both are: as of 2016 Virginia would've probably been a Pure Tossup and Colorado a Leans D state (NoVa has a lot of previously-Republican but virulently anti-Trump voters). Although at this point I would say even for a non-Trump Republican the bare minimum victory excludes both states.
52  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which is a better office before becoming Vice President? on: July 02, 2017, 12:31:56 pm
Senator, though if we expand this to include vice-presidential finalists, the resumes are quite varied: Representatives, Cabinet secretaries, generals, and big-city mayors are all represented. Senator is still the most frequent appellation, though.
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Dems work to declare Trump incapacitated under the 25th amendment on: July 02, 2017, 12:30:19 pm
Good! I unfortunately had to miss the Impeachment March in the city of Cleveland this morning, but I had been quite excited to get together with the #Resistance and march for the Pence Presidency.
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump destroys CNN in new tweet on: July 02, 2017, 12:29:08 pm
I really don't think the tweet breaks any new ground for Trump. It's childish and kinda crass, but, well, so were the last 50. Nor does it break any new ground for Atlas Forum; the reactions are exactly the same as they've been in the past. I am curious about one thing, however...

Just another steppingstone to the inevitable Will Hurd presidency.

How does this possibly logically follow?
55  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Vosem: Ask me anything on: July 02, 2017, 01:45:44 am
What are the most compelling criticisms of neoliberalism you've come across, and what would it take for you to reconsider your beliefs in that respect?

It is difficult for me to talk about compelling criticisms of neoliberalism on account of the extremely divergent definitions that that word has -- I can talk about certain definitions which are more or less compelling, but it's difficult to discuss criticisms. The most convincing criticism of unfettered capitalism I've encountered is its tendency, pointed out by many, to consume itself in competition; often actions that make sense to take for individuals or corporations don't make sense if they are taken by society en masse, which is the effect of unfettered capitalism. It is for this very reason that government is necessary at all.

What would it take for me to reconsider my belief in a broadly market-based economy/society, with only narrow and precisely defined restrictions to the market's power? I don't know. Whatever it would take, I haven't seen it.

Also, I'm bumping this thread and would be happy to take your questions!
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Governors of the Past 25 Years: Ohio on: July 02, 2017, 01:12:05 am
1. Voinovich
2. Kasich
~~~MASSIVE GAP~~~
3. Strickland
4. Taft

Also, what kind of sexist forgets about Nancy Hollister?
57  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Appalachian Wrestling's Greatest Villain: 'The Progressive Liberal' on: July 02, 2017, 01:01:27 am


Fire Lord, my flame burns for thee!
58  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on: June 30, 2017, 12:24:24 am
Both HPs, but Hillary Clinton is far preferable.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Is any Senator at all going to retire? on: June 29, 2017, 11:25:01 pm
Menendez might get forcibly pushed not to seek reelection by the New Jersey Democrats (and I don't know if that even necessarily counts as retirement), but other than that it seems that close to everyone has signaled their intent to seek reelection. Cardin, Carper, Barrasso, and Wicker are all considering it, but we haven't seen any evidence behind-the-scenes in any of these states that they're actually likely to pull the trigger and retire, and everyone else has announced their seeking reelection. A few are speculated to be lying (McCaskill or Sanders) but this is doubtful.

So, who's going to end up retiring? Is anyone?
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-2020: Is Ben Sasse vulnerable? on: June 29, 2017, 11:03:14 pm
2016 suggested very strongly that this sort of action is punishable in the Deep South, but not anywhere else, not even in very Trumpy Appalachia. Too many Plains Republicans have flirted with anti-Trump sentiment for it to really hurt there, and it was a strongly Cruz area in the primary.
61  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World leaders who are more popular in another country than they are at home on: June 28, 2017, 08:41:09 pm
Israeli leaders have a floor in the US that's higher than the Israeli one -- I distinctly recall polling that showed Ehud Olmert was thought of fairly highly in the US towards the end of his term when he had basically no Israelis left defending him.
62  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Ask Antonio (Almost) Anything on: June 28, 2017, 08:24:42 pm
What do you think my politics are?

Is that a trick question? From what I've seen of you, I'll go with "postmodern technocratic liberalism", but there might be other labels that fit better.

I don't really care about omegascarlet, but I've seen you use the word postmodern in other contexts as well, and (much like "neoliberalism", which -- while your definition of it was reasonable and illuminates your other writings rather than obscuring your meaning -- tends to have a lot of meanings and is often used vaguely in a manner meant to obscure rather than illuminate what the author is discussing) I'm interested in knowing what exactly you mean by it.

Does technocratic refer to having a close relationship with corporations (especially "high tech", Silicon Valley-esque corporations), pursuing policies that these corporations would like, or something else entirely?

Some other questions that have come to mind:

While I know you don't have a very positive opinion of Jean-Luc Melenchon and La France insoumise, what do you think about other upstart populist-left movements in Europe, especially Podemos? How instructive for understanding these movements do you think is the experience that SYRIZA had upon reaching power?

Are you at all interested in Latin America? Any particular countries in that part of the world you take interest in?

Assume the feasibility of constitutional amendments is not an issue. How would you propose to reform the American electoral system? Do you think the current system suffers from a democratic deficit?
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are thoughts on Jim Himes (D-PA) on a 2020 ticket... on: June 26, 2017, 10:38:39 pm
Isn't Himes clearly angling for House leadership, though? I don't think a random unknown House member from a non-competitive state is going to be chosen anytime soon.
64  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Simple Political Compass on: June 26, 2017, 10:33:48 pm
Guns and weed. For everyone. The only welfare program that could ever be necessary Cheesy
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP: Rosen +1 on: June 26, 2017, 09:14:24 pm
Why does early Nevada polling always have a ludicrous number of undecideds? This song and dance plays out every Senate election cycle.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018? on: June 26, 2017, 09:11:46 pm
Pure tossup, given the swings in GA-6 (a similar area) and possible differences in turnout. If actually forced to say, very small Tilt D. Improvement on the level of Ossoff's is enough for a Democratic win here, and turnout was higher than usual midterm turnout in GA-6, meaning the Democratic enthusiasm gap is likely to mean more here, but the margins are so narrow that small shifts in popular opinion either way could make the difference. There will certainly be a credible Democratic candidate here.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TN-Sen: Corker, Blackburn statistically tied in GOP Primary on: June 26, 2017, 09:08:27 pm
Alexander is usually considered to be rather likely to retire in 2020, which (combined with his closeness to the Trump Administration) will probably work to save Corker from the firebreathers.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 09:05:56 pm
^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.

I always though Kasich was the strongest candidate? Isn't his approval rating really high over there?

Certainly, but Kasich's not really interested in anything less than President at this point. I'm comparing Mandel to the other Republican Senate candidates recruited (like Evan Jenkins or the several random congresscritters in Indiana they're trying to sweep aside in favor of Curtis Hill).
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Emmanuel Macron a "centre-left" politician? on: June 26, 2017, 04:06:08 pm
A plurality of his voters describe themselves as either centrists or somewhat to the left of it; his most immediate political adversaries seem to be to his right rather than his left; and he and his movement clearly originate from within left forces in France. Saying that he's not center-left seems like a deliberate blindness, or at least an attempt to define words as different from the ways they are most commonly used.

Voted yes and am quite willing to defend this.

So you'd presumably be quite willing to argue that austerity is left-of-center. Good luck with that. And who the Hell cares what a plurality of his voters define themselves as - their idea of 'left' is simply 'not being Marine le Pen'.

"Austerity" is such a radically vague and meaningless word that depending on the context and country it can be anything at all, from very far-left to very far-right.
70  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Liberals...do you realize Trump is "winning"? on: June 26, 2017, 04:03:38 pm
Whether it's Gorsuch and likely more SC appointments in the future, loading the Federal courts, leaving TPP and Paris, the travel ban, the nothing-burger of "Russia-gate"....do you all realize he's winning?

As someone who politically opposed Obama, once I admitted to myself Obama had in essence "won", it was easier to move on and focus on the future.

Leaving TPP was at least as big of a defeat for conservatism as the passage of Obamacare in the first place, and probably more of one since it was completely self-inflicted.
71  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: At what point does a senator become entrenched/untouchable? on: June 26, 2017, 04:01:53 pm
Never. Dick Lugar was popular enough not to get an opponent in 2006 but still lost the primary in 2012. Political climates and relevant issues shift, and entrenched/untouchable members often get behind the times.

Along the same lines, the two most vulnerable Senators in 2018 to primary challenge are probably Hatch and Menendez, both of whom seemed like pretty popular entrenched Senators six years ago.
72  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Emmanuel Macron on: June 26, 2017, 03:59:21 pm
Worthless snake oil salesman
This. He's all fake.

I enjoy that both your populist-left and populist-right literally can't comprehend that people might want exactly what Macron is proposing.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: More likely Democratic pickup? on: June 26, 2017, 03:56:30 pm
Nevada, because it's hard to predict what the political climate will be in 2020 while I think the 2018 one is already locked in absent an unlikely very large shock to the system, and because I think Gardner is more of a political talent than Heller in any case.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-SEN 2018: Fischer (R) running again on: June 26, 2017, 03:55:29 pm
An incredibly annoying Senator who first tried to push anti-Trump elements out of the party before backtracking and disendorsing him herself, then backtracking and reendorsing him again. Exactly the sort of meandering nonentity that makes Congress terrible.

Safe R, but by far the worst incumbent Republican up for reelection in 2018. Would probably vote for a hardcore Trumpist in the primary against her; at least then I'd know what I'd be getting.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 03:53:03 pm
^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 389


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines