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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 08, 2017, 09:58:09 pm
11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.
How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up on: April 30, 2017, 12:23:58 pm
Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff?
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 30, 2017, 12:16:58 pm
I can see MLP-NDA alliance as a kind of Cold War between the two. NDA wants to be a light version of MLP, the one who can win, while she wants to remain as main leader of far-right and exposed him in a "corrupt bargain" situation.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Describe a Jospin 1995/Chirac 2002/Sarkozy 2007/Sarkozy 2012/Macron 2017 voter on: April 26, 2017, 11:20:56 pm
Max Gallo
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 16, 2017, 05:49:14 pm
I'm Melenchon supporter, but I think that if one goes to run-off against him is Macron and not Panzer Girl. Fillon pragmatic voters will go to Macron, while FN scandals will help other anti-establishment candidates (NDA, Asselineau) and even to Mélenchon.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out on: April 16, 2017, 05:10:52 pm
Would a coalition between Sentido Futuro+Parisi+DC viable with Goic as front banner?
32  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Paraguayan Senate secretly votes to allow presidential reelection, riots ensue. on: April 01, 2017, 02:24:10 pm
It's more interesting how many countries had one-term limit but abandoned it (Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Colombia...) under Democratic governments. Itamar Franco couldn't run in 1994, despite having freaking 80% approvals.

Colombia restored the absolute ban on presidential re-election in 2015. As much as the 2004 amendment was adopted through legal procedures, it wouldn't have passed had the swing votes in a congressional commission not been bribed by the Uribe government.

Hah, I missed that. I can't think of any other Latin American country going from "no reelection" to "reelection allowed" to "no reelection, again."
In Brazil, there are always talks about ending reelection, but transitional procedures would make it chaotic. Some people desire to go back to a single 5 years-terms or 6 years-terms. Congresswoman Cristiane Brasil (PTB-RJ, daughter of Mensalao's Roberto Jefferson) proposed a constitutional ammendment to limit to 2 presidential terms against a Lula's comeback.
33  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 21, 2017, 10:56:01 pm
Brazil's state of exception promoted by Car Wash is showing signs of getting deeper. Judge Sergio Moro ordered that blogger Eduardo Guimaraes to be taken from home for questioning. Guimaraes, who ran for town councilor for PC do B in São Paulo, leaked in February, 2016 about Lula's arrest for questioning and the search warrant against seat of Workers Party. They took his equipment (notebook and smartphone) to know about his sources. Guimaraes has already denounced Moro in National Council of Justice (judiciary's control board) for his pratices. And Moro accuses Guimaraes of libel. I'd compare this affair with Assange's wikileaks, as Moro and allies are trying to take informations from Guimaraes notebook and smartphone about his sources, as trying to retaliate Guimaraes.
34  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 21, 2017, 10:22:57 pm
And he spent $7000 of our money to refurbish and install a child safety screen in palace. Legitimate president Dilma Rousseff trolled Temer saying that "she didn't see any phantoms in palace".
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong on: January 29, 2017, 03:46:43 pm
Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising on: January 19, 2017, 09:43:10 pm
Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%


Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

  • A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
  • Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
  • Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
  • And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.
Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?
37  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: January 19, 2017, 09:26:47 pm
Judge of Supreme Court Teori Zavascki died in a plane crash.
He was in charge of the "Lava Jato"

Brazilian "Pelican Brief" is happening. By Supreme Court rules, Zavascki's replacement (to be named by illegitimate president Michel #foratemer will manage Car Wash inquiry. Temer's government leader and PMDB president Romero Jucá (PMDB-RR) in one tapes recorded by former senator and Transpetro Sergio Machado (PMDB-CE) who made a plea bargain...
MACHADO: "A way is to get someone with a link with Teori, but it looks that he doesn't have anyone.
JUCÁ: No one. He's a closed guy. A sh**t bureaucrat.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2017: #Renxit and Beyond on: January 09, 2017, 03:52:09 pm
For Grillo, joining Greens would be more more coherent and not so harming than joining leftists or liberals.
39  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Elections where the winning party lost the popular vote. on: December 27, 2016, 10:13:42 pm
Yeah, now I'm remembering. Bolivia '89 was particularly famous and horrible. A non sensical congressional coalition of left and right was formed to oust the centrist candidate.
Who did the left and right agree on? Another centrist candidate?

The left-wing candidate, which ended 3rd (behind the centrist and the right-wing former dictator).
"Centrist" candidate Sanchez de Lozada was linked to 1st neoliberal government in Bolivia (Paz Estenssoro, 3rd term). And Paz Zamora made another neoliberal government, followed by Sanchez de Lozada and Banzer.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Romanian Parliamentary Election, 11 December 2016 on: December 27, 2016, 09:56:30 pm
Iohannis rejects Shhaideh! Major political crisis now. PSD and ALDE contemplates suspending the President.

President Klaus Ionannis has turned down on Tuesday the proposal for prime minister filed by the PSD-ALDE, Sevil Shhaideh. Iohannis offered no explanation on his decision. He stated he does not accept the nomination.
“I had consultations with the political parties PSD and ALDE, which wanted to come together to consultations, they’ve proposed Mrs. Sevil Shhaideh for the office of prime minister. I have carefully weighted the pro and con arguments and I have decided to turn down the proposal. Consequently, I request the PSD-ALDE coalition to submit another proposal,” President Iohannis said.

According to hotnew.ro, besides the fact that Sevil Shhaideh’s husband had worked for the Syrian government for years, reportedly his brothers are connected to the regime in Damascus, sources close to Cotroceni Palace say.
According to these sources, the notifications coming from intelligence services were “absolutely negative” and included the activities conducted by Akram Shhaideh’s brothers.

Social-democrat leader Liviu Dragnea said Tuesday afternoon, during a press conference, that during the next two days PSD and ALDE will decide the steps after the head of state’s refusal to nominate the proposed premier – Sevil Shhaideh – and if they reach the conclusion that it is a good decision for the country to suspend Klaus Iohannis from office, they would have no hesitation.

“I’ve talked with my colleagues – tomorrow, the day after tomorrow at the latest, we will have to make a decision and, paraphrasing the one who spoke at 12.00h, I want to weigh things very well, not between personal and group interest, but between what is good and what if bad for Romania. There’s no point in hiding behind the bushes. We received a lot of messages from people asking us to suspend the president. It’s not an easy decision to make. If, following an analysis, we reach the conclusion that it’s good for the country to suspend the president, then I will have no hesitation,” Liviu Dragnea said during the press conference at the Parliament Palace, accompanied by ALDE leaders Calin Popescu Tariceanu and Daniel Constantin.


Romania should go to full Parliamentarism (head of state elected by Parliament) system or to full Presidentialism. Current system is unworkable, unless President gets to be elected along or sometime before Parliamentary election (and with a different party system, as coalitions usually split).
But it would be interesting that a country gets to have head of state and head of government by ethnic minorities.
41  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: October 13, 2016, 09:31:28 pm
Far right groups have already scheduled a pro-Trump rally which will take place on October 29th, at downtown São Paulo. They will rally against Hillary Clinton, the "American Dilma".
They're so dumb. As all of Brazilian right. Hillary supports American Free Trade Agreement, received money from Itau (Brazilian largest private bank), and Bill have good relations with PSDB. She's all that coupist government wants.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: October 06, 2016, 09:59:11 pm
PT just can't get a break. Over the last 2 days (i) the Federal Police has unveiled a corruption scheme that financed the campaign of Governor of Bahia Rui Costa (PT/BA), (ii) the Federal Court of Audit has indicated it'll reprove Dilma Rousseff's 2015 accounts, and (iii) the Federal Police has just indicted Lula yet again (the 3rd time this year).
Federal Police's raid on PT is based on very weak elements. Operation went to an advertising agency linked to Bahia's DEM. And some elements linked to PP (Progressive Party) weren't denounced because they're linked to Temer's government as Federal Savings Bank CEO Gilberto Occhi and PP caucus leader Aguinaldo Ribeiro.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9) on: September 26, 2016, 10:18:56 am
Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6
Massive failure for anti-PP opposition. Problems inside En Marea between En Marea, Anova and Podemos barred a large breakthrough and Feijóo was able to separate from national PP.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: September 26, 2016, 09:59:25 am
Rio de Janeiro/RJ:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.

Rio de Janeiro has seen a quite inelastic race so far, but a very exciting race nonetheless.

The undisputed frontrunner for now is Senator Marcelo Crivella, who's pretty much a lock for the runoff. Crivella, who's strongly tied to the powerful Universal evangelical church, was elected to the Senate in 2002 and reelected in 2010. Ever since his election he's tried to run for a major office on the Executive Branch, running for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro/RJ in 2004 and 2008 and for Governor of Rio in 2006 and 2014. However, only in 2014 he made it to the runoff. After so many failed bids, he's finally the frontrunner, propelled by evangelicals, low income voters and a huge split on the alternatives to him. His approval ratings are also noteworthy.

Against him, as you can see, there's a jam of candidates who are fighting for a spot on the runoff, which can be described in those groups:

(i) the left block, which is embodied by Congresswoman Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) and State Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSOL). This is a curious situation where you a have someone who's closer to the establishment left, but adopts a stark leftist rhetoric (Feghali) and someone who's on a stark left wing party but has a speech that is palatable to centrist voters (Freixo). Freixo is ahead of Feghali (and all others) by a razor-thin margin right now;

(ii) the right block, embodied by Congressman Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC), son of Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSC), a far right politician who's a loony social conservative, and Congressman Indio da Costa (PSD), who's known as José Serra's running mate back in 2010, who's mostly a fiscal conservative. Both are slightly behind the other 3;

(iii) finally, there's Congressman Pedro Paulo (PMDB), who's the candidate endorsed by Mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) - a.k.a. the Olympic Mayor. Pedro Paulo has the support of the Federal Government, the State Government and the local government, he has the most TV/radio time of all candidates and has most interest groups on his side. However, he's being hurt by the anti establishment feeling of the electorate, Paes' declining ratings and suspicions of domestic violence against his wife. His approval ratings are very low, so it's hard to see him winning a runoff, but he's right next to Freixo and Feghali, so the power of the machine may just carry him into the runoff.

As you can imagine, tactical voting will be a factor here. However, there are just so many candidates fighting for a runoff spot that it's hard to get a clue of what will be the best tactic. On the left, Freixo's and Feghali's voters have been fighting on the web, both claiming they are the best positioned to make it to the runoff. On the right, voters may be afraid of letting Freixo or Feghali sneak into the runoff, what could for Pedro Paulo, who's the best positioned contender to stop those 2. It's interesting to note that 75% of da Costa's voters claim they could switch their votes before the election, clearly an indication that they'd be willing to vote tactically. The same is probably true about the 4% of votes carried right now by State Congressman Carlos Osorio (PSDB), that would probably lean to the right if his voters decide to vote tactically.

All in, this will go down to the wire.
In Rio de Janeiro, run-off will probably see a coronation of Marcelo Crivella because he's less unpopular between left and right. And candidate most like to be benefitted from right-wing tactical vote isn't Pedro Paulo, but Indio da Costa who have anti-Universal rhetorics and is in a not so toxic party to attract left-wing voters in runoff, although I think that he's most right-wing than Pedro Paulo and Carlos Osorio. PSDB in Rio lost strength after a failed government in 90s, while DEM collapsed after Cesar Maia (father of Speaker Rodrigo Maia and who is town councillor) failed 3rd term with white elephants like Music City and chaos in health services. And tactical vote in left will benefit Freixo who's most palatable to middle classes and can make inroads with poor people.
Rio's PMDB machine has panic of giving strength to Anthony Garotinho (main Crivella supporter), then they'll give a hidden support to anti-Crivella candidate because they're very toxic and they can't piss PRB votes in Congress.
The fun thing of a Crivella-left-runoff will be non-Universal evangelical vote. They hate Universal because they see them as monopolist church, but hate Freixo and Feghali because they're very supportive of abortion rights and gay marriage. But people like Silas Malafaia won't hesitate to support Crivella, specially after his support for impeachment. (
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazilian presidential election, 2018 on: September 14, 2016, 08:46:31 pm
Question to our experts: I think it's unlikely, but what are scenarios/procedures for holding an earlier election?
If Temer gets out until December 31, 2016, a special election will hold in 90 days. After that, Congress will elect a new President and Vice President in 30 days. There's an process against Rousseff-Temer ticket at Supreme Electoral Court and Temer can fall due to Car Wash scandals. Same provision is valid for states and cities. In 2010, after Pandora Box Scandal (DEM's Mensalao) that saw fall of governor Jose Roberto Arruda and lieutenant governor Paulo Octavio, Federal District Legislative Chamber chose Rogerio Rosso as governor to finish term.
46  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 14, 2016, 08:11:56 pm
One thing I just can't comprehend...

Temer was allowed to take office in August, despite being found guilty of breaking campaign finance rules in June. He's thus banned from running for any office for the next eight years, but somehow it's OK for him to take over as President.

Mind blown.
In judicial brazilian system, an electoral crime is a different to a common crime. And Temer was found guilty by 2nd degree trial who makes him a "dirty sheet" politician. But he's appealing this decision. Today, Regional Electoral Court of Sao Paulo is trying a similar case that can alter Temer's situation.
Today, "Car Wash" prosecutors indicted former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva for passive bribery and money laundering along former First Lady Marisa Leticia, aide Paulo Okamoto and people linked to builder OAS. In a power point full of mistakes, like "proinocracy", prosecutors tried to show that Lula received bribes and was maximum commander of Petrobras corruption scheme. This case is very weak, but "Car Wash" judge Moro is very likely to accept denounce and to find guilty, while PSDB politicians sleep soundly.
47  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 13, 2016, 10:48:33 pm
In last Monday, former Speaker and coup's mastermind Eduardo Cunha (still PMDB-RJ) was expelled from Chamber of Deputies by 450 to 10 voting. 9 abstained (including Majority Leader André Moura, one of most loyal Cunha allies) and 43 were absent. Carlos Marun (PMDB-MS) was the only to speak in his favour, while Edson Moreira (PR-MG) spoke and abstained.  Speaker Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) didn't vote. Cunha after voting said that his expulsion from congress was made by a coalition between Temer, Maia, PT and allies. Many people in Temer's government fear a Cunha plea bargain.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: September 09, 2016, 09:06:37 pm
Datafolha September 8th

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 26%
Marta (PMDB) 21%
João Dória (PSDB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 7%
Major Olimpio (SD) 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 29%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 30%
Alexandre Khalil (PHS) 19%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 4%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Geraldo Julio (PSB) 36%
João Paulo (PT) 34%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 11%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 22%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 17%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 17%
PSOL is suffering effects of low television time and celebrity candidates get higher percentual of votes. This is a dreadful campaign for small parties.
49  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 05, 2016, 10:23:38 pm
There were demonstrations in many state capitals calling for Michel Temer's resignation and new presidential election.
In São Paulo, there were 100.000 demonstrators. After a peaceful rally, the riot police started the violence.
In previous day, effective illegitimate president said that acts were made only by "40 persons who only break cars".
50  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 02, 2016, 11:42:40 pm
For the Americans who read this thread, imagine the following situation, an analogy for Dilma's impeachment:

Consider that the USA has a Democratic president and a Republican strong majority in both houses of the Congress. The vice president is a conservative Democrat who has close ties to Republican leaders. The Democratic president accepted this ticket in the election in order to have centrist votes. There is an economic crisis. The president wants to increase taxes in order to reduce the budget deficits. The Congress wants to cut spending in welfare. No agreement is reached. Then, the Congress finds a minor mistake commited by the president as an excuse to impeach him. The conservative Democrat VP becomes the president and appoints top Republican leaders to be secretaries. He leads a conservative administration supported by the Republicans in the Congress. Since the USA is a more serious country, I don't believe this situation could happen there.
In Brazil, party presidents are very powerful. If they don't like a thing, party hardly will go for it. Temer was President of PMDB and Speaker of Chamber in 2010. And Temer wing remained very close to PSDB until 2006 (I remember Temer standing behind Alckmin in 2006 concession speech).
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