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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: September 2017 Foreign Relations Review (Debating) on: October 13, 2017, 03:12:52 am
Europe   Bulgaria   Normal but we are concerned about issues concerning criminal justice and freedom of religion   
What exactly is the problem with religious freedom?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgarian presidential election - November 6, 2016 on: April 01, 2017, 05:28:01 am
Here are the Presidential elections results by municipality: first round (above) and second round

Thank you so much! Is this the first time that 6 candidates/parties have won municipalities (well, Sofia districts in Traykov's case)?
No, there was also the 2009 parliamentary election.

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I can understand Devnya going for Tsacheva in the second round, but Primorsko swinging 40+ percent against the national trend is really difficult to fathom - surely the vote buyers must have realized they were wasting their money by 11:00 at the latest.
It's good that you mentioned Primorsko, since this is a mistake! It is supposed to be over 40% for GERB in the first round. I have now corrected the map. I hope there are not any other mistakes, though this sometimes happens with the amount of data that has to be entered manually. I did specifically check a few other results that seemed suspicious (for example, whether Boynitsa really became a GERB stronghold or whether Venets really switched from voting to the DPS supported Oresharski to Tsacheva in the second round).

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Did you make the map including the Sofia districts yourself?
No, I used this map from Wikipedia. Though I have modified it several times, to add missing municipalities and adjust for border changes.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgarian presidential election - November 6, 2016 on: March 30, 2017, 02:58:36 pm
Here are the Presidential elections results by municipality: first round (above) and second round (below).




4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgarian Parliamentary Election, 26 March 2017 on: March 26, 2017, 05:11:24 pm
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GMantis, nice to hear from you! Are you doing a results by municipality map this time around? I will try to reply to the issues you raised tomorrow.
I will need the final results in tabular form, which might take a week. Which reminds me that I still haven't made the maps of the presidential elections and referendums...


The new format of the electoral commission's result page should make it easier. And as to the presidentials, I guess the second round map will be rather easy to do, haha. Tsacheva ended up losing Dospat municipality by 5 votes instead of winning by 7 (or thereabout), but she picked up a couple of random Shumen region municipalities where I didn't even bother checking. I suppose it will be a sight for your sore eyes to see the map painted red Wink
Actually, I already made that one. See here.
I expect that most of the municipalities won by GERB had some strong business connection with that party. What I found interesting how these two overwhelmingly Turkish minority municipalities (Venets and Nikola Kozlevo) voted for Tsacheva when their equally overhelmingly Turkish neighbors voted strongly for Radev. Perhaps the local mayors switched to Mestan. Also surprising to see the former BSP stronghold Boynitsa (close to Vidin) switching over to GERB.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgarian Parliamentary Election, 26 March 2017 on: March 26, 2017, 04:16:38 pm
Quote
GMantis, nice to hear from you! Are you doing a results by municipality map this time around? I will try to reply to the issues you raised tomorrow.
I will need the final results in tabular form, which might take a week. Which reminds me that I still haven't made the maps of the presidential elections and referendums...
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgarian Parliamentary Election, 26 March 2017 on: March 26, 2017, 02:22:09 pm
Great work again Beagle. Some comments:


GERB (leader: Boyko Borisov, 2014: 33%, 84 MPs, 2016: 22%): The Fidesz-isation of the party continues unabated. After the loss in the Presidential, the intra-party civil war has simmered down, but from the party lists it is fairly obvious that the modernizing Western-style faction has lost.
I question how effective that fraction ever was, considering that Borisov never really cared about that, except for carrying out the orders he got from the EU.

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Why they will not be in government[/b]: according to most polling, fatigue with Borisov is at an all-time high – even higher than in the aftermath of his 2013 resignation. Since the caretaker government is running the elections, the instruments of control over the election process are mostly outside GERB’s hands for the first time since 2009. The faction which has emerged on top in the intra-party struggle has put rather unpopular and/or unknown candidates at the front of the party lists. There are signs of demoralization following the first loss in the party’s history.
Looking  at the results, this doesn't seem to have been important. It seems that most GERB voters could not care less about who was in the lists as long as Borisov is leading the party.

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Chances of being in government
: It seems inevitable that at least one of the parties will have at least a supply and confidence deal with the eventual government.

Why they will be in government:  Both GERB and BSP have ‘borrowed’ some rhetoric from the nationalists in the past 18 months, especially on refugees. Given the likely configuration of the next parliament, the United Patriots will almost certainly be the only way to form a government without the DPS or a broad coalition.

Why they will not be in government
: The pundits seem to think that the EU/the European party families will veto any attempt to bring the nationalists in. Each of the three leaders has produced statements that would put Jörg Haider to shame within the past year, but I personally doubt that there will be an intervention.
I don't quite agree. The attitude in the EU is currently especially hostile to far-right parties. While they will almost certainly support the governing coalition, their reward will have to be an under the table deal rather than openly.

New Republic (leader: Radan Kanev)

A new project designed to give the disenchanted urban professionals, who were at the forefront of the 2013-14 protests against the Oresharski government, somebody to vote for after GERB+RB failed to pass any significant reforms and collaborated with the oligarchy. Despite their rather extensive platform and despite (or rather because of) their uncompromising attitude, it feels more like the leader’s ego trip than an actual attempt to govern Bulgaria. Radan Kanev, who is a rather abrasive character, is feuding with Borisov and his former RB colleagues, so the entire campaign is based on the idea that the BSP+DPS on the one hand, and GERB+RB Mk.2 on the other, are two sides of the same coin **** [/size].
**** [/size] So you don’t get the wrong impression – all other parties are also sides of that coin. It must be a rather oddly shaped coin.
If this is sincere, this would be unprecedented for the Old Right, who's main concern since 2001 has been keeping out the "Communists" beyond any other concern.


Chances of being in parliament: None. After the DPS split, their friends from the nationalist parties hurriedly passed a law limiting voting precincts for Bulgarians abroad to 35 per country (after some protests, it changed to 35 per non-EU country). If this (likely unconstitutional) limit wasn’t in place, it would have been quite possible for DOST to pass the threshold on the votes from Turkey alone. With the DPS intimidating (or worse) the DOST people in Bulgaria and with the caretaker Interior minister cracking down on DOST vote buying (but not on DPS vote buying), they will not be able to gather the needed votes from within the country.
I'll defer to your greater knowledge, but why is it unconstitutional?
Of course, if the government wanted really to crack down to DOST, they would have banned them as obviously unconstitutional.


It's rather straightforward, really - many, if not most, Bulgarians identify either as 'communist*' or as 'anticommunist' based on their family's 1944-1989 experience (and for a substantial part of the 'communist' camp - of their family's experience post-1989 too). That is not to say that there are no defections, but for many people voting either for or against the BSP - as the successor of the communist party - forms the entirety of their political identity.

* communist in the sense of belonging to the Bulgarian Communist Party
Sorry, but this doesn't really make sense. Considering that nearly every poll on the question shows that the majority of Bulgarians have a positive opinion of the Communist period, BSP should be doing a lot better than they actually do. So this can't be such an important factor. If you mean that the tribal division was only between actual communists and anti-communists (meaning people who were repressed by the regime or were actually opponents during its existence), it would again affect a relatively minor part of the Bulgarian electorate, considering that the former was never more than 15% of the population and the later was probably was smaller than that.






7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Paris: French soldier neutralizes Muslim terrorist @ the Louvre on: February 05, 2017, 08:13:10 am
He didn't kill him fortunately. Please leave your bloodthirst for the browns out of the headlines.
What's fortunate about him not being killed? Now he'll get to stay in prison on government expense and he'll have plenty of opportunity to convert others to radical Islam while there.

...some people think human life is inherently valuable. Shocking, I know.
I agree with you completely. This is why it's bad that this terrorist can continue to endanger human lives.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley Blames Russia For New Ukraine Violence on: February 04, 2017, 05:43:32 am
And here I was thinking that Trump was actually serious about improving relations with Russia...
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Paris: French soldier kills Muslim terrorist @ the Louvre on: February 04, 2017, 05:38:56 am
He didn't kill him fortunately. Please leave your bloodthirst for the browns out of the headlines.
What's fortunate about him not being killed? Now he'll get to stay in prison on government expense and he'll have plenty of opportunity to convert others to radical Islam while there.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think trump did with voters of eastern european ancestry? on: January 28, 2017, 08:49:58 am
Russians probably voted for Trump. Other Slavic groups and Eastern-Europeans...not so much.
Not all Eastern Europeans have the same attitudes as Poles (or western Ukrainians). For example, I'm willing to bet that Trump won Bulgarian Americans handily.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Palestinian unity government announced on: January 22, 2017, 03:17:20 am
Again, the conventional wisdom is to carve up the only plural democracy with respect for fundamental human rights and give the Palestinians a self-governing state. Recipe for terror, war, and even more regional instability. Maybe Islamic Jihad will be pacified by giving up the settlements!
So since you're opposed to Israel and the Palestinian territories being divided (though Israel itself has never actually agreed to them being unified) and consider fundamental human rights to be so important, I assume that you strongly support the incorporation of the Western Bank and Gaza strip into Israel and the granting of citizenship of all the inhabitants of these territories?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Top Dem and Rep results, by state on: January 22, 2017, 02:17:45 am
I'm going to try Michigan since 1960.  Most D county is in red, most R county is in blue, and the election year is colored for the statewide winner:

1960: Wayne (66.0%) Missaukee (79.8%)
1964: Wayne (76.0%) Missaukee (58.1%)
1968: Wayne (63.2%) Missaukee (67.7%)
1972: Sanilac (72.9%) Wayne (53.3%)
1976: Ottawa (74.1%) Gogebic (61.0%)
1980: Ottawa (67.9%) Wayne (51.2%)
1984: Ottawa (79.7%) Gogebic (58.0%)
1988: Ottawa (76.2%) Wayne (60.2%)
1992: Wayne (60.4%) Ottawa (59.1%)
1996: Wayne (69.0%) Ottawa (64.4%)
2000: Wayne (69.0%) Ottawa (71.2%)
2004: Wayne (69.4%) Ottawa (71.6%)
2008: Wayne (74.0%) Ottawa (61.0%)
2012: Wayne (72.8%) Ottawa (66.4%)
2016: Missaukee (73.6%) Washtenaw (67.6%)
Extending this series back as far as this source has information:

1956: Sanilac (78.9%) Wayne (57.9%)
1952: Sanilac (82.5%) Wayne (57.4%)
1948: Sanilac (77.7%) Wayne (57.9%)
1944: Wayne (63.4%) Sanilac (82.1%)
1940: Sanilac (82.1%) Alger (63.8%)
1936: Genesee (67.5%) Sanilac (63.2%)
1932: Macomb (63.7%) Keweenaw (72.5%)
1928: Missaukee (87.2%) Delta (49.6%)
1924: Keweenaw (91.2%) Monroe (32.4%)
1920: Keweenaw (90.2%) Manistee (47.8%)
1916: Keweenaw (76.6%) Kent (53.7%)
1912: Iron (45.2%) Mackinac (41.3%)
1864: Grand Traverse (81.9%) Mackinac (86.1%)
1860: Midland (78.5%) Emmet (84.9%)
1856: Midland (78.5%) Sanilac (79.9%)

Roosevelt's best county in 1912 was Muskegon (52.3%). LaFollette's best county was Delta (44%).
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Top Dem and Rep results, by state on: January 22, 2017, 01:26:13 am
An update after the 2016 election. Most Democratic county is on the left and most Republican on the right. * marks change from 2012.
...

Some notable most Democratic/Republican county streaks: Madison county, most Republican in Idaho since 1976 (though it did became McMullin's best county this time around), Lake county - most Democratic in Indiana since 1984, Ottawa - most Republican in Michigan since 1976 (it has now fallen to 31st place), Wayne - most Democratic in Michigan all but two times (1976 and 1984) since 1960, Sioux - most Republican in Iowa since at least 1956 and Wyandotte - most Democratic in Kansas since 1968.

Sioux/Lyon, IA is a case of the former having higher conservative third-party vote. If add McMullin to Trump, Madison, ID is beaten out by Franklin.
For the sake of consistency, I'm following the criteria used by Lewis: highest percentage, not margin.

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most impressive state wins since 1992 on: January 14, 2017, 03:32:20 pm
There is Clinton winning California by nearly 30%, the best Democratic result in 80 years.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: In which states did Lyndon Johnson win the white vote? Goldwater? on: January 10, 2017, 05:33:06 am
Based on the demographics at the time Johnson almost certainly won the white vote in all states outside the South (except Arizona of course), with the very unlikely exception of Idaho. In the south he certainly won the white vote in Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. He probably won the white vote in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina, but probably lost it in Florida.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: International demographic/voting trends on: January 08, 2017, 09:50:20 am
I seem to remember seeing that in Italy, PD actually does best among the oldest age groups, which is pretty unique for left-wing parties.
This is very common in Eastern Europe. In my country there's even a saying "red Granny".
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: General on: January 08, 2017, 09:26:50 am
Appointed commissions and courts controlled the drawing of 219 out of 435 US House districts in the last redistricting cycle. Elected Republican officials controlled less than one third with Democrat elected officials the rest. The fact that these appointed officials and courts generally favored Democrats in this cycle was the main reason for the eight seat gain Democrats had in 2012.
Where exactly did you get these figures? In reality, the redistricting of 218 districts was held by the Republicans, 46 by the Democrats and the other 164 by independent commissions and courts. And the actual reason the Democrats gained eight seats was because they did much better in the 2012 election, actually winning the popular vote instead of losing by 7% as in 2010. In fact, Republican Gerrymandering cost the Democrats at least six seats.

18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The United States, in population units of Canada (interesting map) on: January 05, 2017, 11:25:31 am
Eyeballing it is tricky.

Safe Clinton:

Red Canada in CA.
Red Canada in the NE.
Blue Canada in the NE.

Probably Clinton, but I can't tell for sure:

Yellow Canada in Midwest: Chicago probably outweighs everything else.
Yellow Canada in West: I think that the West Coast + Colorado means that that's a Clinton state.

Probably Trump:

Red Canada in Midwest.

Definitely Trump:

White Canada in Southwest.
Blue Canada in Southeast.
Red Canada in Southeast (South Carolina pushes it over, though it's a closer state than one might imagine).
How about the White Canada in the East? I would say it's definitely Trump.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.N Security Council passes resolution Israeli settlements; the U.S doesn't veto on: January 04, 2017, 01:38:29 am
Obama really disappointed me with this decision. It sounds like nothing more than spite and a nod to the Democratic Party's increasing anti-Israel posture.

I'll say it: Israel has an unabridged right to its territories, including Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the entirety of Israel. It is further in the interests of the United States to favor one of the few allies in the region that favors our success in the War on Radical Islam and has a population that supports our victory unconditionally.

There is absolutely no reason to cede any of these territories to the Palestinians, a group of people that could be homed by any of the Gulf State peoples or any of the Arabic nations around Israel. I am not for a two state solution; I am for a one state solution, named Israel. 
If nothing else, one has to admire this post for honestly stating what many Israeli nationalists and their supporters want but are (for now) don't dare to state openly: complete annexation of the West Bank and full ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians.

Like I said, the ongoing attempts by leftists to fictionalize a coming Israeli-perpetrated genocide that never actually seems to happen, because "this clearly means something has to be DONE!!!" is genuinely disturbing and very reminiscent of the way throughout history the Jews are supposedly always thisclose to our secret, evil nefarious plot and thus must be dealt with.
No one is talking about genocide here. Just the deportation of the Palestinians from the West Bank. And while this scenario is for now indeed mostly discussed on the Internet, there are in fact high ranking Israelis who have already openly stated support for such plans. And if Israel's current policy continues, this plan will only become more popular.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.N Security Council passes resolution Israeli settlements; the U.S doesn't veto on: January 03, 2017, 05:23:10 pm
Obama really disappointed me with this decision. It sounds like nothing more than spite and a nod to the Democratic Party's increasing anti-Israel posture.

I'll say it: Israel has an unabridged right to its territories, including Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the entirety of Israel. It is further in the interests of the United States to favor one of the few allies in the region that favors our success in the War on Radical Islam and has a population that supports our victory unconditionally.

There is absolutely no reason to cede any of these territories to the Palestinians, a group of people that could be homed by any of the Gulf State peoples or any of the Arabic nations around Israel. I am not for a two state solution; I am for a one state solution, named Israel. 
If nothing else, one has to admire this post for honestly stating what many Israeli nationalists and their supporters want but are (for now) don't dare to state openly: complete annexation of the West Bank and full ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: Putin's Long Game on: January 03, 2017, 04:35:34 pm
Preposterous hysteria. It seems every nonsense written about Russia - wild conspiracy theories, absurd dreams about invasion, ridiculous accusations (Russia's responsible for the migrant crisis?!) - since the beginning of 2014 has been crammed into just one article. Not surprising when the author was the advisor of Saakashvilli.

It only said they were inflaming the situation, as it is destabilizing the old world order in Europe.
By this logic, you could also levy the same charges against the United States who were directly or indirectly supporting the Syrian opposition before Russia sent forces to help Assad.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: Putin's Long Game on: January 03, 2017, 10:09:18 am
Preposterous hysteria. It seems every nonsense written about Russia - wild conspiracy theories, absurd dreams about invasion, ridiculous accusations (Russia's responsible for the migrant crisis?!) - since the beginning of 2014 has been crammed into just one article. Not surprising when the author was the advisor of Saakashvilli.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: how many counties did trump win that were last one by nixon for the GOP? on: January 02, 2017, 07:31:47 am
Here is a list of all counties that flipped and the length of the streak of voting for the same party which was broken now. The answer is nineteen.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CA: 2016 Referendum General Election Result on: December 31, 2016, 03:24:26 pm
I'd like to see the condom initiative map.


Looking at the map, I have a feeling that a lot of conservative Californians saw the words "Adult film" and voted No without bothering to read any further.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 31, 2016, 03:30:41 am
Interesting how there are far fewer Dem streaks than Rep streaks as the latter has many rural counties outside the South. Here are the longest Dem streaks:

Brooks, TX (Since 1908, i.e. every time since the county was founded in 1911)

Northampton, NC (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1924)

Costilla, CO; Suffolk, MA; Ramsey, MN; St. Louis City, MO; Deer Lodge, MT; Bronx, NY; Kings, NY; New York, NY (since 1924)

Duval, TX, Jim Hogg, TX, Maverick, TX, Starr, TX, Webb, TX, Zapata, TX (never R in consecutive Atlas history which dates to 1940, though Webb and Zapata voted R in 1912)

All are Northern urban or majority-minority except for Deer Lodge, MT.
Starr started its streak in 1896 (currently the longest Democratic streak), Northampton in 1900, Duval in 1904, Webb and Jim Hogg in 1916 (the latter was only founded in 1913) and Zapata in 1924. Here is the full list and you can also check the maps for each year.
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