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1  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: JZ Analytics: Obama opens 8-point lead (9 points with 3rd-party candidates) on: September 24, 2012, 07:00:29 am
Rasmussen is the gold standart on national level
the state polls are not so good
2  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: JZ Analytics: Obama opens 8-point lead (9 points with 3rd-party candidates) on: September 24, 2012, 06:51:57 am
Rasmussen nailed teh party id in 2004 2006 2008 and 2010 btw
3  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / National Poll Angus_Reid: Obama slightly ahead on: September 24, 2012, 06:26:05 am
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Angus-Reid)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

Unfortunely without crosstabs

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/2012.09.21_Presidential_USA.pdf
4  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: JZ Analytics: Obama opens 8-point lead (9 points with 3rd-party candidates) on: September 24, 2012, 06:20:07 am
In 2010 it was even too!
do you follow the Rasmussen  monthly party ID??
Rasmussen says it`s R+4
5  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: JZ Analytics: Obama opens 8-point lead (9 points with 3rd-party candidates) on: September 24, 2012, 06:06:33 am
It won`t be D+3 this year
at best D+1 but more even or R+1
6  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/Susquehanna (R): Obama+2 on: September 23, 2012, 12:44:38 pm
PA isn`t in play
7  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: University of Cincinnati: Obama up by 5 in Ohio on: September 23, 2012, 06:29:09 am
Another Joke poll for OH
Obama 51/Romney 46
(Dems +6…48%D/42%R/10%I)
48% Dems? Almost half of Ohio is Democratic? I don’t think so.
in 2008 it was 39D 31R 30I in 2010 37R 36D 27I in 2012 it will be 36D 35R 29I
The poll indicates that Democrats are slightly more likely to vote than Republicans this year, and Obama supporters are more enthusiastic about the election than are Romney backers. However, Romney is winning independents by a large margin!! So reduce the I-vote by 19% and give them to the D`s and oh whta a surprise suddenly Obama leads!! LAUGHABLE!! The truth in this poll is Romney is slightly ahead!
8  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama/Romney tied in FL, MT poll still to come on: September 23, 2012, 06:28:28 am
FL:
Obama/Romney: 48/47
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50/46.6

Nelson/Mack: 48/40
my numbers: Nelson/Mack: 46.9/ 44

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/sites/tampabay.com.blogs.the-buzz-florida-politics/files/fl912poll_1.doc

1) Way undesamples Independents
2) D+5 sampling is +2 better than 2008 and
+9 better than 2004 in a state that in
2010 GOP held on to the Senate race, a
Governor race, two House races and
took four House seats from the
Democrats for a 4-0-2 record. Sure.
3) Revert back to the 2008 breakdown
and you have Romney in the lead.majority of undecideds do not approve of Obama or disapprove of O. R gets better crossover from Dems than Obama of Reps
9  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama/Romney tied in FL, MT poll still to come on: September 22, 2012, 09:04:26 am
th´s not the new poll.s the July issue!!!
my predictions are

 FL: Romney+1
 MT Romney +9
10  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Purple Strategies: Obama moves forward in swing states (LV) on: September 21, 2012, 12:03:44 pm
Purple Strategies Poll approval numbers:

Colorado 45%
Florida 46%
Ohio 46%
Virginia 45%
North Carolina 45%

The door is open for Romney to capitalize here. Bad numbers for an incubent

Also, how does Romney lead Independents in Ohio by 10% and trails 48-44%???
11  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac to release new CO, VA, WI polls today @ 7am EST on: September 19, 2012, 09:16:49 am
right 2004 was a big exception and in OH VA and WI the party ID was very different to 2012
12  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / WAA-VA-Poll on: September 19, 2012, 09:15:07 am
We Ask America (R)

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA

Obama (D-Inc) 49%
Romney (R) 46%
Johnson (L) 1%
Undecided 5%

1,238 LVs
+/- 2.8 MOE

They’rrrrrreeee Baaaaaacccck!

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/09/19/big-10-round-2-va/
13  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac to release new CO, VA, WI polls today @ 7am EST on: September 19, 2012, 08:47:17 am
my own numbers are very correct. I am using the right party ID and not a wishful thinking.
isnt it a free site for free minds here??
I overtake the illusional numbers of crosstabs but using the logical party ID

WI and VA are even with D`s and R`s so it comes down to the Indy votes!
CO is R+3
14  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / AP poll it`s tied on: September 19, 2012, 05:25:39 am
http://news.yahoo.com/poll-obama-job-approval-rising-race-still-tight-070314606--election.html

Obama/Romney: 47/46
15  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / McLauglin & Accociates (R) Poll for OH + FL on: September 19, 2012, 03:18:12 am
Florida: Obama: 45.5/53
Romney 47.7
Obama 43.8

Ohio: Obama: 50.6/47.5
Obama 46.9
Romney 44.0

http://www.secureamericanow.org/pdfs/SANow-09-18-12-RELEASE-MEMO-WITH-TABLES.pdf
16  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP/DailyKos Poll on: September 18, 2012, 01:40:05 pm
my numbers r ver accurate! I am using the right party ID and not a wishful thinking
17  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / PPP/DailyKos Poll on: September 18, 2012, 12:47:44 pm
Daily Kos: Obama: 48/50 disapprove

Obama/ Romney: 50/46

http://elections.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/9/13
18  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / NH-President-ARG Poll on: September 18, 2012, 12:32:16 pm
NH : Obama/Romney: 48/46

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/
19  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC: Obama, Romney tied on: September 04, 2012, 05:27:51 pm
National

2012 President
48% Obama (D), 48% Romney (R)
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50.7/46.4

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 45% disapprove
my numbers:45.5/48.3

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 44
Mitt Romney: 49 / 43
Joe Biden: 46 / 43
Paul Ryan: 42 / 38

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/04/rel9a.pdf

NO WAY if Romney wins the Indies by 10% he`s losing only in a wishful thinking model
20  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gravis poll MO on: August 26, 2012, 05:28:20 pm
Gravis

Missouri:

McCaskill: 38.8
Akin: 37.3

Romney: 53.1
Obama: 36.1
Johnson: 04.1

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103846007/Gravis-Missouri-Poll-Romney-Up-Akin-in-Trouble-August-24-2012-2
21  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5 on: August 17, 2012, 05:32:31 pm
Hi! What r the crosstabs for this poll`can`t open the link!!
22  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 on: August 09, 2012, 06:34:29 pm
because it was of a friend!! I am sorry for that!!!
23  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 on: August 09, 2012, 06:30:27 pm
not true it was a joke of a friend of mine and i was falling in. not my fault!
24  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40 on: August 09, 2012, 06:15:15 pm
FOX undersampled the Indys
who think it will be 20I only??
D+9 is laughable
and to think Romney would get only 30% of the Indys is wishfulthinking too
25  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40 on: August 09, 2012, 06:09:53 pm
I am a member of the Demcrats Abroad by the way
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