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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: GOP-dominated suburbs on: October 16, 2017, 08:00:02 pm
The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.

These are good, but obviously, as to any rule, there are exceptions.

TX-03 is only 55% white and more of the "urban" variety of suburbs, but is rock-ribbed Republican.

Rockland County, NY, is 78% white, exurban, and leans Democratic - voting D by at least a 5 point margin since 1992 except for 2004.

Can't really say Rockland  is exurban, it is primarily suburban.  Also you are comparing White in Rockland to non-Hispanic White in TX-3.  Rockland is 63.9% non-Hispanic White, and no question is less religious than TX-3 (which did trend rather heavily towards Clinton)
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Classy Michelle Obama let us some racism show. on: October 04, 2017, 09:30:08 pm
She's not wrong, and that isn't racist.

She IS wrong, though.  The GOP is hardly "all male".

Susan Collins
Susana Martinez
Elaine Chao
Betsy DeVos
Nikki Haley
Cathy McMorris-Rogers
Karen Handel (defeating the mighty Ossoff)
Mary Fallin
Deb Pearce
Joni Ernst
Mia Love


That's just a few I can rattle right off.

I normally think well of Michelle Obama, and it's not a racist statement, but it's not a correct statement as far as the "all male" part goes.  These may not be the women you want to see in public offic, but they are prominent GOP women.



Republican women make up less than 10% of all Republican members of the House and less than 10% of  Republicans in the Senate.



3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 11:31:02 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.

As someone who has lived in Nassau County my whole life other than college, I'm tempted to say the Sagitkos Parkway is the dividing line on Long Island, but Route 112 is probably more realistic and an argument could be made for as far east as the William Floyd Pkwy.

The Sagitkos Parkway is a pretty decent dividing line - the Northern and Southern State Parkways end shortly after there (I guess the SSP technically becomes the Heckscher Parwkay to the east of it), and at least the Babylon Branch of the LIRR ends within. Route 112 would also take into account the main terminus of the Ronkonkoma Branch of the LIRR. The William Floyd Parkway is pretty far out, on the other side of a little bit of the pine barrens - and out of the urbanized area, at least on my map. I think the argument for that is tougher.


Going off how built up or developed the areas are, I would say the Sagitkos is too far west.  Outside of some sporadic areas along the north shore (north of 25A), pretty much everything between the Sagitkos/Sunken Meadow and Route 112 is pretty heavily built up.  East of 112, the development is more here and there, especially north of the LIE.  South of the LIE it does push further east toward the William Floyd.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 09:19:32 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.

As someone who has lived in Nassau County my whole life other than college, I'm tempted to say the Sagitkos Parkway is the dividing line on Long Island, but Route 112 is probably more realistic and an argument could be made for as far east as the William Floyd Pkwy.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where are the most conservative suburbs of Los Angeles? on: August 19, 2017, 10:41:09 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Villa_Park,_California

Consistently the most Republican municipality in the LA area at around 75% for Republican presidential candidates.

Know how it voted in 2012 & 2016?   I would imagine Trump won it, but by a significantly smaller margin than Romney.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 05:30:09 pm
I would suppose that's generally accurate, but I would still hesitate to generalize too broadly.  After all, you have Sands Point, Cove Neck, and other places like that in Nassau, and in Westchester you got Yonkers.

On the average though, you may be right.  Both counties are heavily "new money" though, even if Westchester may have a reputation of being "more established."



By no means was I suggesting that Nassau has a large WWC population (I live here so I  know its not the case) or that Westchester has none, but rather Westchester's WWC population is smaller than Nassau's, and Nassau's is smaller than Suffolk's.    All three flew leftward during the 90's in part due to Clinton combined with the GOP's uber social conservative direction.  The WWC vote in each area might explain the changes since then, especially in regards to the aftermath of 9/11, and the Trump era/
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 11:35:57 am
^ Westchester is more "establishment" than Nassau.

Westchester has significantly fewer WWC voters than Nassau, and Nassau has significantly fewer WWC voters than Suffolk.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 11:33:38 am
Many affluent voters in the NYC suburbs tend to be socially moderate to liberal as was mentioned above.  This led to a sharp Democratic trend during the 90's and into 2000.   There was a bit of a pullback to the right in many of the NYC suburbs after 9/11, although Westchester didn't really move much.   Part of that could be the WWC voters might have been more inclined to have their voting habits impacted by 9/11..  The region didn't move much over the next decade, Westchester then moved further left last year, Suffolk lurched right, meanwhile Nassau barely moved (and has been between Dem 5.6 and Dem 8.4) in each of the last four Presidential races. 
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are educated voters less likely to support Trump than non-educated? on: July 23, 2017, 10:38:39 pm
This is something that strikes me. I've never understood the relationship between level of education and support for Trump.

Because they see his moronic tweets and hear him speak....
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Sabato: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map on: July 15, 2017, 03:09:27 pm
Interesting analysis over at the Crystal Ball, it seems that changes in population distribution in Virginia have played a major role in shifting the state from solid red to leaning blue, the growth in northern Virginia is stunning. Right there only appears to be 2 ways a Republican candidate can win Virginia at this point, of course a candidate could rely partially on both options, one would be running up huge margins outside of the urban crescent or alternatively cutting into the Democrats margins in counties like Fairfax which Trump lost by nearly 190,000 or Arlington where he sustained a defeat of 72,000 votes, these 2 counties more then accounting for Clinton's margin of victory statewide.

On the democratic side, making Virginia more blue would rely upon shifting northern Virginia further to the left as well as making gains in the greater Richmond area. Overall, I would say it is quite likely that Virginia will continue to lean Democratic going forward with the drift of southwestern Virginia towards the GOP preventing Virginia from becoming a safe Democratic state.


I think it will become even more Democratic and be in the safe column.  SW Virginia likely could move further towards the GOP, but NOVA and Greater Richmond will likely move even more towards the Democrats.  That movement along with the current population of those areas, and population growth in those areas will make it very difficult for the GOP to stop the state from moving into the safe Dem category.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Cuomo wants to run as a reformer with results on: July 09, 2017, 11:46:37 am
I don't hate Cuomo but after the God awful way he has handled the LIRR he shouldn't bother

As someone who is quite familiar with the LIRR and has commuted on it in the past when I worked Downtown, I don't see how Cuomo is at fault for the LIRR issues
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: June 18, 2017, 11:30:44 am
Team Handel bringing back the usual red meat for the GOP base:



https://twitter.com/Newsday/status/875498174286311424/

Lol this is actually kinda funny.

It would be genius if that exit led to a polling site lol


This sign is nowhere near the district.  On the Sagtikos Parkway in Suffolk County right around the L.I.E
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 07:57:11 pm
Keeps ticking close.  The amount of Fairfax left probably is enough for Gillepsie to eek it out, but wow
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now? on: June 03, 2017, 08:58:53 pm
Both states have become more diverse, both states have also have fast growing well educated metro areas.  North Carolina's trend in 2016 was only marginal, in part due to GOP trends in more rural parts of the state.  Virginia experienced this as well, but the pure size of its metro population more than outweighed it.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal? on: June 03, 2017, 08:44:21 pm
My parents retired to the area, (Indian Land in Lancaster, less than 1/2 mile from the border).  Mecklenberg has become more diverse and also seen significant growth.  Much of the growth is from northern transplants, which are considerably less Republican than whites in Mecklenberg than in 2000.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: May 23, 2017, 11:12:34 pm
I grew up in the district, lines have changed, but still very Republican.  This one is a bit of a shocker.  Never even entered my mind that the Democrats could win here.

FWIW, this district became open because Saladino stepped down to become interim Supervisor in the Town of Oyster Bay following the resignation of Supervisor John Venditto after his indictment.  This is likely a bad sign for the TOB GOP in the fall.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a racist white nationalists who voted for Hillary Clinton on: May 20, 2017, 04:03:53 pm
A contractor who did work for one of the many companies that Trump stiffed.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa on: May 15, 2017, 11:27:55 pm
National PV: Clinton +2.09
Oregon: Clinton +10.98 (8.87 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Delaware: Clinton +11.38 (9.27 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Ohio: Trump +8.08 (10.2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)
Iowa: Trump +9.41 (11.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)

By the way, Virginia was also closer to the nation as a whole than Florida, Colorado closer than Wisconsin, and New Mexico closer than Georgia.

Oh, and, if you want to call Indiana competitive because of 2008 or whatever, New York was closer to the nation as a whole than Indiana!

If Ohio and Iowa are still swing states, than I guess Oregon and Delaware count too (and arguably even Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island).


You really can't make argument just off one election.  Both Ohio and Iowa did move sharply last year, but neither one moved or trended Republican in the prior elections.  Same with Indiana, it moved sharply Democratic in 2008, but really showed no trend prior.  Colorado and Virginia on the other hand  were already showing signs of becoming more Democratic before they flipped.

Now, that isn't to say the potential of those states from moving away from swing status isn't a possibility, it certainly is, especially if the Democrats don't improve with white working class voters, however one election cycle is simply not enough to tell.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: May 15, 2017, 11:16:03 pm
MN is anchored by a larger metro area than WI and IA, whereas MI had more non-college educated voters.

Trump did better among the college graduates demographic than among those with high school or less in Michigan, so not sure what you're talking about.

That is true if you do not include those with a post graduate degree as part of the college graduate demographic.....

Overall Clinton won by 6 among college graduates in Michigan and lost by 4 with those who didn't graduate college.  Among whites with and without a college degree, the gap was wider.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary) on: April 21, 2017, 07:06:28 am
My parents retired down to SC-5 (just over the border from Charlotte).  As much as I would like to see a Dem pickup I highly doubt it unless something major happens.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DEMS: If there's a GA-06 runoff, who do you HOPE faces Ossoff? on: April 17, 2017, 06:09:24 pm
Gray, terrible fit for the district.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-11 2018: Can Rodney Frelinghuysen be defeated in 2018? on: April 16, 2017, 12:38:30 pm
If Trump's approvals are below 30% which would create a 2006 or greater type of Dem wave it is certainly possible.  Other than that, the Dems only realistic chance is if Cody jumps in and that seems unlikely.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York State has a budget crisis on: April 09, 2017, 10:46:05 am
Not sure how you came up with the thread title..


While it has been much better of late, NY had a long history of late budgets and there is nowvan agreement.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info on: April 07, 2017, 06:34:45 pm
Rodney Frelinghuysen's district in NJ-11 is now R+3, less Republican than before. I wonder why? It still contains ancestrally Republican Morris County.

Trump only won the district by 0.9%.   Romney won it by 5.8%.  Compared to the national average trended Dem by about 6.7%. 

Trump struggled with traditionally Republican, well educated middle to upper middle class white suburbanites, which is what a good chunk of this district is.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was North Carolina not a swing state until 2008? on: March 12, 2017, 11:44:29 pm
Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?

Probably a combination of the two along with the increased transplant growth.  You also had the national climate and a solid win for Obama in 2008 nationwide. The actual trend in NC from 0 to 08 was basically the same as the trend from 04 to 08
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