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26  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:LIGHTNING ROUND on: June 03, 2004, 04:33:49 am
Sorry for this, but my sense of humor demands that I re-make my lightning round post recycling jmfcst’s answers.

Abortion: have never met anyone affected by it, so what’s the problem?
Gay Marriage: it is what it is
Guns: Unspeakable murder – parents killing their own kids.  
Taxes: strongly favor
The World: mend it, don’t end it
Iraq: best described as a pyramid scheme
John Kerry: case by case basis
GW: immoral, against it.  A sign that we are nearing the end times.
Health Care: execution would be carried out within one month
Social Security: I believe we are either in or near the last days
Affirmative Action: strongly favor
Immigration: Arab-Muslims probably will not tolerate democracy
Environment: wings everything, has a good inner compass
Death Penalty: The antiChrist must first establish his rule.
Policy of preemptive strike:  unprincipled.
Free trade: open up drilling.
27  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:What's your occupation? on: June 03, 2004, 04:11:52 am
Two finals away from my Bachelor's in International Studies from the UW.
The last two years, I've worked at a lumber yard loading trucks and driving delivery.
I've worked at least 20/hrs week since I was 16 when I started bagging groceries.

After school's out, I'm starting a new job as the assistant director of a fundraising office for a group called Grassroots Campaigns, raising money for the DNC.

In the future, I want to be involved in public service in some way...help people out...
28  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Why is Nader running? on: June 03, 2004, 03:29:39 am
I was 17 in 2000, and although I couldn't vote, I paid attention to the race and the election.  I had never been more into politics.  I remember so vividly talking with people on other message boards back then about how we (liberals) should all vote for Nader because the Democrats have capitulated on just about everything we care about and it's b.s. that we put up with it.  
I remember one specific person on those boards named Mary...she pleaded with us not to vote for Nader because if enough people did, Bush would win.  The rest is history.  

I really don't think Nader is going to be as big a factor this time around.  Still, he could cost Democrats a few states yet again.  

Just out of curiosity, do Republicans feel that Ross Perot was responsible for Bush and Dole's losses?  
You know, maybe this is just karma catching up with us...

29  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best Kerry VP Pick on: June 03, 2004, 03:16:09 am
Really?  It seems like Edwards has been out there working for it though.
There also seems to be a lot of support for him to be VP, considering he was the second strongest in the primaries.
Personally, I thought he was running a much better campaign than Kerry...his speeches were better...his message was better.  
Carville called his "Two Americas" stump speech the best of the primaries.  I'd agree.

I think if we can get Ohio we can win.  I think Edwards would bring out a little extra there...
30  About this Site / The Atlas / Re:graphical representation of states on: June 03, 2004, 03:11:12 am
Your points are well taken.  Maybe this issue is deeper than I think it is.

I suppose the easiest way to guess whether or not an area is going to vote Democrat is to look at the racial balance.  If there enough non-whites, the area will go Democrat.  Think Washington DC.

Second would be gender.  But since gender is evenly distributed across the country, it's harder to see its effects.  Women vote Democrat something like 52% or maybe a little more...
Men (white men, that is) vote heavily Republican; moreso than white women vote Democrat.  Holding everything else constant, all-white areas should therefore tend to be republican.

Third would be age.  It seems that the youngest voters prefer democrats, working age people vote republican, and older people vote democrat.  Again, all more or less marginal advantages, although I've seen polls showing Democrats hold a pretty decent advantage amongst the elderly...

Union participation rates might be a factor...anyone know where I could find data on this?  
31  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best Kerry VP Pick on: June 02, 2004, 10:42:29 pm
Yeah I think Edwards might be the biggest help in Ohio and Wisconsin.  If we win those two states, we're in pretty good shape.  
Yeah, I'd agree with Lunar about Edwards bringing Republicans out of the woodwork to vote against him.   I don't know North Carolina, never been there, but I know that Edwards defeated his opponent in 1998 pretty soundly, 51.2-47.
That said, Gore lost the state in 2000 even more soundly, 43-56.  That's a big deficit to overcome, and it's probably unlikely.
32  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:From Bush, Unprecedented Negativity on: June 02, 2004, 07:12:48 pm
Clinton did authorize the assassination of Osama Bin-Laden, right?

Also, there wasn't a single hi-jacking during the Clinton years.  You think the terrorists waited for Clinton to leave the White House before they attacked?  I don't think so...

He also bombed Bagdhad and Sudan (the latter of which was a mistake).  He made sure Iraq complied with the no-fly zones...where we were actively bombing Iraqi surface-to-air installations.

Look, Saddam was contained...it is true that they had WMD, which they destroyed (check out Scott Ritter on this subject) we had daily missions flying over northern and southern Iraq...we had sattelite imagery...we had UN weapons inspectors saying "well, we don't see much here"...Invading Iraq was the wrong move...it has NOT been worth the American and coalition causualties, not to mention the Iraqis lost in the war.
33  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best Kerry VP Pick on: June 02, 2004, 06:57:35 pm
I agree.  Edwards would be a great choice.  I'd love to see him and Cheney go at it.

Just for fun, let's take a look at Edward's performance in the primaries...here are his best states (percentage and rank)

North Carolina 51%
South Carolina 44%
Georgia 41%
Ohio 34%
Wisconsin 34%
Iowa 31%
Utah 29%
Minnesota 27%
Tennessee 26%
Virginia 26%
Missouri 24%

Edwards came in first in the Carolinas, but all these other finishes were second place.  I think he's well liked in the south and in areas of the Mid-West.  I don't think he'd help much with the Pacific coast states or New Mexico, in which he got second place in only California with 19%.  He didn't garner too much support in New England either, but that's not exactly a region that I'm concerned about.  

I think Edwards would give Kerry what he needs...a certain Clintonesque, passionate southerner.  I'm saying he's my definite choice...but he's a good one.  
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re:Northern Republican for President? on: June 02, 2004, 06:26:50 pm
Good point, Better Red, and wasn't W. born in Connecticut or something?  

There must be an interesting history of politicians moving or changing their home state for political advantage.

Like Nixon...didn't he at some point switch from California to New York?
35  About this Site / The Atlas / Re:graphical representation of states on: June 02, 2004, 06:23:27 pm
Yeah, the liberal vote is mainly in the metropolitan areas, but I think you mischaracterize it vis-a-vis the conservative vote.

I would say that the views of metro-liberals are far more varied and diverse than the views of the conservatives in the "hinterland".  Oregon or Washington, my home state, provide instructive examples.

Portland and Seattle are the most diverse areas of each state.  The rest of Oregon and Washington, respectively, are sparsely populated and, ideologically, pretty homogenous.  The fact is that despite the diversity of opinions, races, religions, and income in major US cities, it is Democrats that dominate these areas hands-down.  In the culturally and ideologically monotone rural areas of America, Republicans do best.  So when it comes to representing the views of "varied communities", Democrats win.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Northern Republican for President? on: June 02, 2004, 02:51:56 pm
Do you think the Republicans will ever run a Presidential Candidate from New England?  Seems unlikely to me...
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:VP candidates and their home states on: June 02, 2004, 02:49:04 pm
You know, at two in the morning all those square states start to look the same...

Ok some corrections are needed...you guys are right.  For some reason I thought the map showed shriver from Mass...ok so Shriver lost Maryland.

I'd really like to get some analysis of this though.  One thing I've noticed is that a VP candidate rarely can bring in his state if his state has gone solidly for another party.
Texas went Republican in the two elections before 1960, but went Democrat when Johnson was on the ticket with Kennedy.  

Maybe some states have more "state pride" than others.  Texas would certainly come to mind.  

This makes me doubt whether or not Edwards could win North Carolina.  I think it takes a local powerhouse (like Johnson was in Texas) to swing a state over as the VP candidate.  I don't really think the Democrats have many of those in important swing states.  Thoughts?
38  General Discussion / History / Re:The Best Campaign Slogan in History on: June 02, 2004, 01:35:27 am
"I like Ike but Adlai Stevenson".

Best.  Slogan.  EVER. (you get it, right?)

Best part is, my grandma told me that one.
39  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:If you lived in SD who would've you voted for? on: June 02, 2004, 01:22:07 am
Herseth.  Look at what she's done, what she stands for, and her endorsements.  
It helps that she's a Democrat Smiley
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:Home States on: June 02, 2004, 01:11:58 am
Cool! Smiley
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / VP candidates and their home states on: June 02, 2004, 01:04:05 am
I'm really interested in the strategy of selecting a VP candidate.  So I did a little research here on this endlessly cool website and found some info I just thought I'd share with y'all.

Here is a list of the Democrat and Republican VP candidates since 1928, their home states and whether or not they won.  The bottom line is this:
the Democrat VP candidate wins their homestate 14 out of 19 times.  The Republican VP candidate wins their homestate 11/19 times.

1928: Robinson-WON-Arkansas;Curtis-WON-Kansas

1932: Garner-WON-Texas; Curtis-LOST-Kansas

1936: Garner-WON-Texas; Knox-LOST-Illinois

1940: Wallace-LOST-Iowa; McNary LOST-Oregon

1944: Truman-WON-Missouri; Bricker-WON-Ohio

1948: Barkley-WON-Kentucky; Warren-LOST-California

1952: Sparkman-WON-Alabama; Nixon-WON-California

1956: Kefauver-LOST-Tennessee; Nixon-WON-California

1960: Johnson-WON-Texas; Lodge-LOST-Massachussets

1964: Humphrey-WON-Minnesota; Miller-LOST NewYork

1968: Muskie-WON-Maine; Agnew LOST Maryland

1972: Shriver-LOST-Maryland.; Agnew-WON-Maryland

1976: Mondale-WON-Minnesota; Dole-WON-Kansas

1980: Mondale-WON-Minnesota; Bush-WON-Texas

1984: Ferraro-LOST-New York; Bush-WON-Texas

1988: Benton-LOST-Texas; Quayle-WON-Indiana

1992: Gore-WON-Tennessee; Quayle-WON-Indiana

1996: Gore-WON-Tennessee; Kemp-LOST-New York

2000: Lieberman-WON-Conn.; Cheney-WON-Wyoming

42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:10 Best U.S. Presidents on: June 02, 2004, 12:41:20 am
How could you possibly say the Bushies are the best wartime presidents?!?
You think Iraq is a test of American power and strength?  LOL.  With all due respect to our troops, and my best friend is in Iraq right now, I'd say this conflict doesn't come close. Try the Civil War!  Try WWI or WWII!

Best wartime presidents:

Best soldier/presidents:
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:Home States on: June 02, 2004, 12:30:46 am
It would be interesting if you considered each time a president was re-elected that he was a "new" president; that is, ticking the score for his home state up by one.

What would the numbers look like then?  I know New York would get 3 more for Roosevelt...
44  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best Kerry VP Pick on: June 01, 2004, 05:10:15 pm
So no one else here things Gephardt would be a good pick?  For Missouri, West Virginia, and Ohio, perhaps even influence western Pennsylvania...?
45  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re:Prime Ministers Questions on: June 01, 2004, 03:28:32 am
Prime Minister's Questions:  I watch them on C-SPAN's website and pretend I'm watching my own President.  I can't stand Bush.  Bush would get torn to Shreds if he had to face House Democrats.  The thought of it makes me laugh...

I don't know why the political debate in this country is so mediocre.  I think Americans have just come to expect it, and the media doesn't question in, so it happens.  In England, you get these weekly debates between the PM and parliament...it's AWESOME to watch.  

It makes the regular C-SPAN fare of some dude speaking in a big empty room seem like...well, just that.

I really wish we'd demand more from our politicians...like that they debate each other more openly and freely...

Instead of having Nancy Pelosi rip into Bush, or Bush rip into Nancy Pelosi (either of which I'd pay to watch, btw), we have this garbage that passes for news like FOX who just kind of tell us what to believe.  Wouldn't it be better to hear it straight from the politicians themselves--not paraphrased or summed up or analyzed by some idiot on television??  

I love watching Blair and Michael Howard go at it.  And they really do!!  They let each other have it, and it's great!  I really wish we'd do that in the US.  I really do.  We'd never have presidents like George W. Bush if we did, because speaking extemporaneously would be a job requirement.
46  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best Kerry VP Pick on: June 01, 2004, 03:12:30 am
I think the VP pick will be huge for Kerry.  I really think it'll be a close election and the VP pick could tilt it either way in some states.

For example, I don't think Kerry on his own will win Missouri, Ohio, or West Virginia.  But if you put Gephadt on the ticket I think those states become more likely, esp. Missouri.

I think Edwards is overall the most obvious, best known, and of course placed well in many of the state primaries.
I think it's obvious that the pick cannot be a NewEnglander.  

Wes Clark is an interesting choice...he could bring in Arkansas (I'd say that's safe) but that's only 6EVs.  He might bring more white men over to Kerry than other VP choices (like edwards), but we know white men don't vote D anyway.  There's an argument that instead of shoring up women or minorities, we should choose a VP that does well with white men, the group Bush has most support from.   If you follow that logic, I'd say Clark is the choice.

So anyway, I'm sure there are lots of people in the Kerry campaign with a lot more resources and and data than I have, playing all the angles and variables as we speak.  I wonder what they're looking for...?

One thing for sure, I'm not going to make a prediction until the VP is chosen.
47  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:LIGHTNING ROUND on: June 01, 2004, 02:38:24 am
young people in general are much more supportive of equal rights for gay people than older folks.
Our culture (i was born in '83) is just totally different than the one you older folks grew up in.
I'm glad the times have changed.  One big reason I think conservatives want to bring up the gay issue now (re: constitutional ban on gay marriage) is because they know that the support for it will be dying off pretty rapidly here.
48  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:LIGHTNING ROUND on: May 31, 2004, 06:09:25 pm
Abortion:  Pro-choice.
Gay Marriage:  Government should only recognize civil unions...leave marriage to religious institutions.
Guns:  Support 2nd amendment
The World:  Pretty corrupt
Iraq:  The greatest recruitment tool for terrorists ever.
Saddam was not a threat.  Actively opposed the war.
John Kerry:  I hope he wins.
GWB:  I hope he loses.
Health Care:  Universal, free, and efficient.
Social Security:  Against privitization.
Affirmative Action:  Yes.  Not forever, but we still need it.
Immigration:  Every immigrant I've worked with (they have been many) has been a hard working, law-abiding person who was genuinely grateful to be here.  Let them in.
Death Penalty:  No judicial system is good enough for it.  
Preemptive Strike:  Oh, this is a pet-peave.  There is a difference between a "preemptive strike" and a "preventive" one.  Preemption is attacking your attacker before he attacks you.  Prevention is attacking someone who isn't attacking you because you think he will attack you at some unknown time in the future.  I support "preemtive" strikes, but not "preventive" ones like Iraq War II.
Free Trade:  It can raise people's living standards, and has to varying degrees around the world.  However, it needs to be made fair.  I don't like giant multi-nationals controlling everything.  I don't like NAFTA, and have personally lobbied against CAFTA.
Patriot Act:  The intelligence community shouldn't need it if they were good at what they're supposed to do.

49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / changes in the EV (?) on: May 31, 2004, 03:53:20 pm
So there were a whole bunch of changes in state's electoral votes from 2000 to 2004.  How does this happen, exactly?

Doesn't a state's electoral vote equal its number of congresspeople (reps+senators)?  So if a state's EV changes, does that mean new congressional districts are added or existing ones taken away?

50  About this Site / The Atlas / graphical representation of states on: May 31, 2004, 03:48:31 pm
As a Democrat, it's always frustrating to see such large land areas of the U.S. covered in blue. (here on this site)
I think many people who don't think much about the graphical representation of data would assume that Republicans get way more support nation-wide because...well...look at all that *blue*!

From a graphic point of view, this misconception can be dealt with by changing the size of the states relative to each other to reflect population.  This kind of looks silly in two dimensions.  What I'd like to see is a map where the states physical size are all normal on 2 dimensions, but where population (or electoral votes) is represented on a third dimension, height.  It may be hard to do, but I think playing around with transparency, so that you can see through each rising bar above a state onto the ones behind it, would make it readable as well as graphically accurate.  And it would look cool.

Anyone here ever seen such a thing?  Can anyone here make one?
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