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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-SEN 2018: If Menendez resigns, does Gov. Christie appoint himself? on: September 01, 2017, 12:01:31 pm
Big Move or Fat Chance?
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: September 01, 2017, 11:57:20 am
Quote
New Dem #TX23 candidate: Rick Treviņo, teacher who ran for San Antonio City Council in May w/ @OurRevolution backing, narrowly missed runoff

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/899316510224789504

Pete Gallego has announced that he will not seek election in the district he lost in 2014 and 2016.

Democrats will probably seek someone from San Antonio
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hurricane Harvey (non-political) megathread on: August 31, 2017, 01:28:03 am
There are a lot of Venezuelan emigres in Houston (particularly in the Katy area) and Citgo (which is owned by the Venezuelan national oil company is headquartered in Houston. Citgo contributed $500,000 to Trump's inauguration.
54  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 31, 2017, 01:26:30 am
Jimrtex, if places like Ohio are not in the Mid-West, then what region do you think OH is in?
Based on the linguistic map, the northern portion (Cleveland, Toledo) should be part of Northlands that extends into New York, includes all of Michigan, eastern Wisconsin, Chicago, northwestern Indiana, and then extending into the areas of heavy German and Scandinavian settlement through Wisconsin, Minnesota and into the Dakotas and Montana.

The area to the south would be Midlands.
55  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 30, 2017, 11:04:45 pm
Is there actually an Upper Midwest, or is a transmorgrification of the Upper Mississippi?

There are companies and media outlets that describe themselves as serving the Upper Midwest, and though I've heard that label most often in the region of the Upper Mississippi, I've never heard the description Upper Mississippi applied that way. I've only heard Upper Mississippi applied in the geological sense or to describe pre-Columbian cultures.
Have you ever heard the term Lower Midwest? Would someone from Kansas or
Indiana say they were from the Lower Midwest?

The North American Baptist Conference has a Upper Mississippi region (MN, IA, WI, IL).

I'm not saying that the area of the Upper Mississippi became the Upper Midwest, but the concept of "upper-ness" may have come from the river divisions, and of course there is clear distinction between Upper Mississippi and Lower Mississippi, except perhaps for the bit between St. Louis and Cairo.

538 ran a survey that agreed with my definition. Most Midwesterners agreed that the Midwest included their State and its neighbors.

Perhaps the Upper Midwest label evolved to give more breadth than what the NABC or the geologists would use. With the Upper Midwest label the Dakotas and UP can be included without referencing the river basin of including IL. As a native, I don't associate Chicagoland with the Upper Midwest, it's just the Midwest.

Perhaps it also came from people reacting to the dialects of the area. I see that my conception of the Upper Midwest closely matches the region of the North Central dialect from the UPenn Linguistics study 20 years ago.


Midlands corresponds more with my concept of Midwest. The separation between North Midlands and South Midlands is along the National Road. Note that 2 of 3 Denver speakers show the characteristic of the South Midlands. Denver is the only city in the intermountain west until quite recent times. I thought about including Oklahoma, but I thought that would be too radical for those who believe that the Midwest extends east of the Mississippi River.

The Inland North was peopled by those migrating via the Erie Canal from New York and New England, dominating Michigan, and eastern Wisconsin, before running into a larger influx of Germans and Scandinavian. At least stereotypically a Minnesotan accent is a Swedish accent.

Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois were all developed from south to north from the Ohio River. The location of their capital cities reflects a desire to have a central city, and resist placing the capital where the population resided at the time of statehood. Some of the people would come down the Valley of Virginia and through the Cumberland Gap, while others would go west from Philadelphia in their Conestoga Wagons. Some would continue west along the National Road.

Cleveland is really an upstart 20th Century city, and Detroit to a lesser extent since it was the easiest place to get to from the east. Chicago didn't really start to develop until the mid 19th Century.

The Big 8 was a midwestern conference. The Big 10 increasingly sees itself as part of the east with Penn State, Rutgers, and Maryland being added.

Perhaps Upper Midwest is not really a subsection of the Midwest?
56  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 30, 2017, 09:52:51 pm
Is there actually an Upper Midwest, or is a transmorgrification of the Upper Mississippi?

There are companies and media outlets that describe themselves as serving the Upper Midwest, and though I've heard that label most often in the region of the Upper Mississippi, I've never heard the description Upper Mississippi applied that way. I've only heard Upper Mississippi applied in the geological sense or to describe pre-Columbian cultures.
Have you ever heard the term Lower Midwest? Would someone from Kansas or
Indiana say they were from the Lower Midwest?

The North American Baptist Conference has a Upper Mississippi region (MN, IA, WI, IL).

I'm not saying that the area of the Upper Mississippi became the Upper Midwest, but the concept of "upper-ness" may have come from the river divisions, and of course there is clear distinction between Upper Mississippi and Lower Mississippi, except perhaps for the bit between St. Louis and Cairo.

538 ran a survey that agreed with my definition. Most Midwesterners agreed that the Midwest included their State and its neighbors.

Only about 10% of respondents in that 538 poll agreed that Colorado was Midwestern, as you have argued.  Yet a majority of respondents put Michigan and Ohio in the Midwest, the latter of which, at least, you've argued shouldn't be considered Midwestern. The greatest percentage of respondents agreed Illinois should be included, which to me is a no-brainer, as Chicago is the largest Midwestern city.
As the article notes, those numbers are skewed by the higher population density. If someone in Cleveland thinks they are in the Midwest, they are going to include Indiana and Michigan and Illinois, and may not consider anything west of the river. People in Indiana will respond the same way, with some willing to include Iowa and Missouri.

Illinoisans would probably include Wisconsin (Milwaukee is not that different from Chicago, other than size), and Madison is close to Rockford. If they include Wisconsin, they will also include Minnesota. Muon2 may be willing to extend the definition further west, because he actually grew up west of the river.

Someone from Iowa may include Illinois (perhaps excluding Chicago), and might not include Ohio, because they were surely going to include Nebraska.

The author said that his boss from NYC thought that Wilke-Barre was in the West. I was only using a small tidbit of hyperbole to suggest that Hoboken was in the West from a Manhattanite (who probably classifies the "Boroughs" as a USA region, different than Long Island. They might concede that Yonkers was not really Upstate, at least in the sense of White Plains.
57  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 30, 2017, 05:11:37 pm
Is there actually an Upper Midwest, or is a transmorgrification of the Upper Mississippi?

There are companies and media outlets that describe themselves as serving the Upper Midwest, and though I've heard that label most often in the region of the Upper Mississippi, I've never heard the description Upper Mississippi applied that way. I've only heard Upper Mississippi applied in the geological sense or to describe pre-Columbian cultures.
Have you ever heard the term Lower Midwest? Would someone from Kansas or
Indiana say they were from the Lower Midwest?

The North American Baptist Conference has a Upper Mississippi region (MN, IA, WI, IL).

I'm not saying that the area of the Upper Mississippi became the Upper Midwest, but the concept of "upper-ness" may have come from the river divisions, and of course there is clear distinction between Upper Mississippi and Lower Mississippi, except perhaps for the bit between St. Louis and Cairo.

538 ran a survey that agreed with my definition. Most Midwesterners agreed that the Midwest included their State and its neighbors.
58  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is Austin so liberal? on: August 29, 2017, 09:56:31 pm
Lack of a commercial development because it is too close to San Antonio and Waco, and delayed development since it only emerged as a major city post WWII.

59  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 29, 2017, 09:00:46 pm
Is there actually an Upper Midwest, or is a transmorgrification of the Upper Mississippi?
60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 29, 2017, 08:56:40 pm
I grew up in Denver which is clearly a Midwestern city with a large share of its population from the classic Midwest states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and some Illinois. It has nothing in common with Cleveland. If any areas east of the Mississippi are Midwestern, it would be areas along and south of the National Road.

Well, the National Road went through the current capitals of Ohio and Indiana, so...
I can see including Cincinnati, Louisville, Tell City, Evansville, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Peoria in the Midwest.
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 29, 2017, 08:44:41 pm
Excellent post muon.  Let me ask you this then- do you think there ought to be a Plains States region (such as the one in my regions map) at all then?  Or do you think the Mid-West goes right up to the Mountain West?

I've never thought it makes sense for the Mid-West to stretch all the way out to the Rockies.  For one, the region becomes so big at that point, that it's unwieldy and unhelpful, because there is too much regional variation within it.  For me, a good barometer is this- if the region is easily broken up into distinct and large sub-regions, then maybe it shouldn't be one single region, but multiple regions.  Here's an example- could you put New England and the Mid-Atlantic into one "super-region" and call it the "Northeast?"  Sure.  But it makes a heck of a lot more sense to just split it into two regions.

Second, a Mid-West that large would seem to capture areas that do not have much in common with the "classic" Mid-West.  Example- places like North Platte NE, or Wichita KS.  What do these areas have in common with say... Cleveland?  Basically nothing.  To have one region encapsulate both seems just ridiculous to me.  Thus why I made my plains region.
I grew up in Denver which is clearly a Midwestern city with a large share of its population from the classic Midwest states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and some Illinois. It has nothing in common with Cleveland. If any areas east of the Mississippi are Midwestern, it would be areas along and south of the National Road.
62  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 28, 2017, 04:13:41 am
Dude I grew up in NY, and have lived most of my life either there, DC/VA, or Boston.  I have literally never met a single person that "grudgingly" called places like Cleveland part of the Mid-West.  Every single person I've ever known considers it part of the Mid-West.  I'm not trying to be a dick, but do you actually have any personal experience with this?  Have you lived in these cities?  Or are you just making an assumption?  Because it sounds mostly like the latter.

While some of us in this thread are squabbling about finer points of where to put the Upper Mid-West, I don't think anyone, ever, has limited the Mid-West to NE and KS.  KS is arguably not even in the Mid-West at all (I consider it part of the Plains States).
If you consider Cleveland to be midwestern, don't you also consider Pittsburgh, Erie, and Buffalo to be midwestern.

Kansas is the epitome of the Midwest.
63  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 27, 2017, 10:15:17 pm
Somehow it seems Jimrtex has thought a lot about this by applying his ideology to regions.  "People from Missour-ah are midwestern but those socialists in Chicago aren't!"

Dude, you don't know what you're talking about.  Cleveland is Midwest.  Chicago is Midwest.  Minneapolis is Midwest.  Omaha is Midwest.  St. Louis is Midwest.  Fargo is Midwest.

The Midwest is better defined as the Rockies to the Ohio River and points north.  The Midwest itself can then be divided into the Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Lower Midwest, and Plains.  These regions overlap each other and the terms are often fluid.
I was distinguishing Missour-ah from Missour-ee. If you were from the Midwest, you would have known that.

If you are going to claim that Cleveland and Youngstown and Steubenville are Midwest, there is no reason to exclude Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Wheeling, and Huntington; or for that matter Syracuse, and Harrisburg.

In your model a 10% sliver along the coast is the "East", the western 1/3 is the "West", and everything else is "Midwest"

My definition simply keeps 2/3 for the Midwest and West. You can call the area to the east the Great Lakes region or Mideast.
64  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 27, 2017, 09:47:07 am
How can states in the eastern third of the country be considered Western? Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio are clearly Eastern or Near Eastern, to distinguish from the Extreme East. Only someone from the New York Times who believes that the West begins at Hoboken would argue otherwise.
The Midwest is not considered Western...
This.

Jimrtex, the Mid-West does not refer to either the "West," or "Western" states.  Nor has it since before the Louisiana Purchase.
To someone from Boston, New York, Philadelphia, or Washington, the "West" begins at the 'Boros, Hoboken, Lancaster, or the Beltway. It is only grudgingly that they recognize that Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Detroit are not really the West, and so call it the Midwest, but that is an affectation.

The true Midwest is between the Mississippi and the Rockies. Persons from Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, or Missour-ah exemplify Midwestern values.
65  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 26, 2017, 11:27:58 am
How can states in the eastern third of the country be considered Western? Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio are clearly Eastern or Near Eastern, to distinguish from the Extreme East. Only someone from the New York Times who believes that the West begins at Hoboken would argue otherwise.
66  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Citizens who voted for Obama '08/'12 and Trump on: August 24, 2017, 02:16:52 pm
Since this question has popped up in this forum several times, I thought I'd eventually make a poll about it...



Drifting Driftless
67  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: North Carolina Legislative Redistricting on: August 24, 2017, 02:08:31 pm
It is going to be a tough sale to a district court that the new House map is a racial gerrymander.

There are 28 districts with a BVAP over 35%, but only three over 50%. Two of those are whole county districts that were not challenged, and are unchanged. The 55%+ district is in Greensboro.

55%+ 1
50%+ 2
45%+ 7
40%+ 7
35%+ 11

Note, the legislature has not released racial data. The above numbers are derived from census data (I used single race, non-Hispanic blacks; the legislature apparently has included Hispanic blacks, and some multi-racial blacks).

Under the current plan there are 25 over 35%, and they are highly concentrated above 50%.

55%+ 1
50%+ 17
45%+ 5
40%+ 2
35%+ 0

In a 35% BVAP district, if blacks vote 95% Democrat, they need 25.8% whites voting Democrat to have a majority. In a 30% BVAP district, they need 30.7% white support, and in a 40% BVAP district they need 20.0% white support.

HD-1 and HD-5 in northeastern North Carolina are currently18.6% and 53.5% BVAP. HD-5 was overturned. Under the new map they are 39.2% and 43.5% BVAP (both districts are now whole county districts). HD-1 was a 61% McCain district, and is now a (2012) 51% Obama district. In 2016, the new HD-1 was a 53% Trump, 54% McCrory district. HD-1 is currently represented by a white Republican, who likely will be re-elected but with a more competitive race.

HD-7 and HD-25 in Franklin and Nash are currently 50.0% and 15.7% BVAP. HD-7 was overturned. Under the new plan they are 40.0% and 24.5% BVAP, with HD-7 now entirely in Nash, with a Rocky Mount focus. HD-25 includes all of Franklin and the southern portion of Nash (closer to Raleigh). The new districts were 54% and 44% Obama in 2012, so there should be no partisan switch, but the two representatives have been swapped between the two districts, so it appears that both may be defeated.

HD-8 and HD-24 in Pitt and Wilson counties were 27.3% and 56.7% BVAP. HD-24 was overturned. Under the new map, HD-8 is entirely in Pitt and is 43.9% BVAP, while HD-24 is all of Wilson and 37.4%. The incumbents in both districts are from the city of Wilson, and are paired. The Democrats swept the entire Council of State in 2016, as did Clinton, in Wilson County. The black Democrat representative, Jean Farmer-Butterfield, is the ex-wife of Congressman G.K. Butterfield (NC-1). Presumably her name will be of benefit. The current congressional map splits Wilson County, so that Butterfield would not be drawn out of the district (the county is on the southern edge of the district). HD-8 is an open seat and should be an easy pickup for a black Democrat.

to be continued.





68  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: North Carolina Legislative Redistricting on: August 23, 2017, 07:31:29 pm
The redistricting plans have been put into bill form a passed 1st reading and referred to the respective senate and house redistricting committees. The House map is in a House bill, while the Senate map is in a Senate bill.

The Senate redistricting committee will meet at 2 PM Thursday (August 24), while the House redistricting committee will meet at 9:30 AM Friday (August 25). At this point, the bills are just shells with no districts specified.

The General Assembly is in session this week. The House tomorrow meets to consider overriding several of Cooper's vetoes. It is conceivable that the legislature will approve the redistricting bills in the next couple of days. The last court order suggested that if the legislature made the maps public, the deadline would be extended until September 15, but it now appears that they will simply meet the September 1 deadline.
69  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 23, 2017, 04:19:25 pm
So i have been messing around with the maps on DRA, and it is easily possible to get two compact districts inside Bexar, along with bits for the 23rd and the 21st. The thing is, both these districts evened out are at 55-56% Obama - probably higher for Clinton after checking to precinct maps. Drawing districts with such a low D % does not seem to be in the spirit of the TX GOP and their Dem packs so here is a question:

Is it possible/probable for one to redraw the 23rd in Bexar, in relation to the 20th and the 35th in this case? It seems dicey since the court barely held up the 23rd as it stands, and any changes would need to produce a extremely similar PVI and HVAP. However, trading precincts between the Fajitas and Bexar produces two more favorable Dem packs in Bexar and leaves the 23rd as an R leaning competitive seat.

If it is not politically feasible, it seems likely that in exchange for the expected Austin Dem pack, the new 35th will be a battleground seat with probably a slight D tilt.
Nobody will touch TX-23, not even to get rid of the split of LaSalle, and if you tried to move TX-23 into Bexar, you have to find a place for 500,000 other persons.

70  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 20, 2017, 01:09:38 am
Here is a plan that shifts a total of 1,025,227 persons, only involves 5 districts and produces much more compact districts:

TX-35

Drops Travis County 215,626 to TX-27, complying with court's decision forbidding a San Antonio-Austin district, gains remainder of Guadalupe (108,688) from TX-35, and more of Bexar (106,938) from TX-28.

Keeps 69.1% of current district. 62% of the district is in Bexar county, with the remainder along I-35 in Guadalupe, Comal, Hays, and Caldwell.

TX-27

Gains Travis County from TX-35 (215,626), DeWitt, Goliad, and remainder of Gonzales (33,446) from TX-34, loses 237,655 in Nueces to TX-34, and 11,416 in San Patricio to TX-28.

Keeps 64.3% of current district.

TX-28 Loses (106,938) to TX-35 in Bexar, and (52,450) to TX-15 in Hidalgo, gains (54,848) from TX-15: Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Karnes, Live Oak, and remainder of Wilson; gains (93,124) from TX-34: Bee, Jom Wells, and part of San Patricio; gains (11,416) from TX-27 (a bit more of San Patricio).

Keeps 77.2% of current district. Currentlly 41.1% of the district is in the end counties of Hidalgo and Bexar. This is reduced to 18.2%.

TX-15 Loses (54,848) to TX-28: Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Karnes, Live Oak, and Wilson(part); loses remainder of Guadalupe (108,688) to TX-35; Gains (111,086) Hidalgo (part) from TX-34; Gains (52,450) Hidalgo (part) from TX-28.

Keeps 76.6% of current district. New district will be entirely in Hidalgo county, as TX-34 is pushed out of the county.

TX-34 Loses (93,124) to TX-28: Bee, Jim Wells, and San Patricio (part); loses (33,446) to TX-27: DeWitt, Goliad, and remnant of Gonzales; loses (111,086) to TX-15: (remainder of Hidalgo); and gains (237,655) from TX-27: Nueces.

Keeps 66.0% of district, keeping only Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Kleberg, and gaining much of Nueces.



71  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: North Carolina Legislative Redistricting on: August 19, 2017, 11:55:16 pm
What a great gerrymander.

Link

It is interesting that the flaw in the Stephenson algorithm shifted a district (79) from West to East.

72  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 19, 2017, 08:47:14 pm
The portion of Travis in TX-35 is mostly Hispanics.

Interesting. It seems dumping those voters into Farenthold's Anglo district just as it sheds Hispanic voters in Nueces would make this map DOA when it hits the courts.
You can't make TX-35 constitutional without shedding Travis County. Where are you going to put them?
73  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 19, 2017, 08:42:49 pm
The State of Texas sought to stay the remedial proceedings by the district court, so that they could appeal  the courts interlocutory decision. The district court refused to stay their activity, claiming that they have not enjoined the use of the current map that they have labeled as intentionally discriminatory.

The State of Texas says that if the legislature would draw a new map, that they waive their right of appeal of the court's opinion, and also that it does not matter that the court labeled their opinion interlocutory, since it is tantamount to saying that the districts can not be used.

Presumably, the State of Texas will appeal to the SCOTUS and the SCOTUS will stay the remedial process.
74  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 18, 2017, 01:10:44 pm
Here is a least change version, that only requires moving 801,592 persons.

Add the Travis portion of TX-35 to TX-27 (215,626). This fixes TX-35 except that it is underpopulated.

Move a similar portion (222,836, about 65%) of Nueces from TX-27 to TX-34. This fixes TX-27 since it no longer dilutes the voting power of Hispanics in Nueces County.

To get TX-35 to equality, move (139,231) from TX-15 to TX-35, including the remainder of Guadalupe, Wilson(part), Karnes, and Live Oak; and (78,522) from TX-34 to TX-35, including Gonzales(part), DeWitt, Bee, and San Patricio (part).

This truncates the northern extension of TX-15 and TX-34 at Duval-Jim Wells-Nueces, and provides better connectivity between San Antonio and the areas of TX-35 along I-35 to the south of Austin.

To make up for the losses of of TX-15, move (138,167), including 97K from Hidalgo, and Jim Wells. The 97K from Hidalgo leaves just 13K of TX-34 in Hidalgo.

And finally, move Goliad (7210) from TX-34 to TX-27 for population balance.

Doggett represents 70% of the new TX-35 so he will probably run there. Otherwise he can run against Fahrenthold in TX-27.


If you want more compactness bring TX-28 further east. It picks up Duval, Jim Wells, Brooks, and Jim Hogg from TX-15 in exchange for part of Hidalgo. This will put all of TX-15 in Hidalgo.

TX-28 also picks up Live Oak, Karnes, and Wilson(part), and Bee, DeWitt, Gonzales, and San Patricio (part) which we had moved into TX-35, and instead move much of the TX-28 part of Bexar into the new and improved TX-35.

In 2022, the new districts can be created in Travis, DFW, and Houston.
75  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 17, 2017, 04:07:17 am
So are they literally just making districts for one term and then new ones AGAIN?
They will be used for 2018 and 2020.

But aren't people already registering for congressional candidacy for 2018? Sounds kinda illogical.
The filing deadline is in December.

In 1996 and 2006 when the final decision came down after the primary, the congressional elections were held as special elections concurrent with the general election in November. In Texas special elections, there are no partisan primaries, all candidates run on the same ballot, and a majority is required. If no candidate receives a majority, there is a runoff in December.

In previous special elections, in partisan districts, the special election was a re-run of the primary.
Seems kinda inconvenient
Especially for the candidates who thought they had been elected in the primary. The primary in Texas is in March, with a runoff in April (now May).
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