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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rangel: Supporters of war should support reinstatement of draft on: November 19, 2006, 04:20:32 pm
Actually everyone serving in Iraq did volunteer to be in the military. Nice try though.
2  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Guiliani vs. Edwards on: November 16, 2006, 02:52:16 pm
Republicans can only hope Democratic primary voters are this dillusional.
3  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Guiliani vs. Edwards on: November 16, 2006, 02:13:24 pm
Edwards is a very, very poor candidate.
4  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Guiliani vs. Edwards on: November 16, 2006, 01:42:06 pm
Democrats got it handed to them in 1994 but won the 1996 Presidential race. There really is not much of a connection.

Guiliani would destroy Edwards, period. It's just reality. The thing is, Edwards has no chance at the Democratic nomination, so it's not "cockiness" because we're talking about a matchup that never will occur. But, purely on a counterfactual basis, if it did occur, Guiliani would probably exceed 400 EVs and, if Edwards ran a bad campaign, Guiliani could push 500.

Guiliani would own Edwards everywhere... Northeast, South, West... Edwards would take Mass. and RI probably for sure, along with DC, but after that not too much. Edwards is like a poor man's William Jennings Bryan, except he's actually very liberal on social issues, thus negating most of his potential base. Guiliani would pull the amazing feat of dominating both the pro-life and pro-choice vote.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Majority Leader Hoyer... on: November 16, 2006, 01:34:20 pm
Major loss for Pelosi. It doesn't hurt her with the public but it definitely effects her control over House Democrats or, more accurately, demonstrates the limit to that control right off the bat.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hotline: Lott elected Minority Whip by vote of 25-24 on: November 16, 2006, 02:14:19 am
Lott isn't only a nice guy, but he's also much less elitist and aloof than most Senators. He doesn't treat people badly just because he's a big shot and they are a lowly staffer or just a random visitor. Alexander on the other hand is apparently a jackass, which probably is why he counted on the votes of Senators who were more than happy to vote against him.
7  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Can Hillary be defeated in the primary? on: November 16, 2006, 02:09:43 am
I don't see how she can be stopped. Gore would have an outside shot, but that's it.
8  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Guiliani vs. Edwards on: November 15, 2006, 02:23:56 pm
Guiliani would win Florida by 10+, win NC by 10, NY by 5, among others.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hotline: Lott elected Minority Whip by vote of 25-24 on: November 15, 2006, 02:14:22 pm
He's one of those people that just loves being in the Senate. I don't think he even cares that much between the majority and minority.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House/Senate leadership showdown on: November 15, 2006, 02:06:27 pm
Lott is a master at Senate rules, particular arcane ones. He's a solid tactician and, rather obviously, a better vote-counter than Alexander, who thought he had won.

In other words, he's perfect for the Minority Whip spot. A very smart and underrated move by the Senate GOP; now we just need the House GOP to go with Pence/Shadegg.
11  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Guiliani vs. Edwards on: November 15, 2006, 03:03:31 am
Total whitewash. Edwards takes Mass, RI, VT, DC, maybe CT. I guess Edwards would have a shot at a few other states, IL, OR perhaps, but I doubt it.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2008: Schumer to lead DSCC Once Again, Ensign to lead NRSC on: November 15, 2006, 02:59:40 am
Ensign is a good choice.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: opinion of jesse jackson? on: November 14, 2006, 01:52:45 pm
Pure excretement.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Note to American Voters: There is no escape! on: November 14, 2006, 02:46:09 am
The "civil war" in Iraq can only go on so long, because the Sunnis are getting wiped out. Millions have fled the country and lots of more are dying in retaliation for Sunni terror attacks. They were a fairly small minority to begin with.

In theory that puts Iran in a position to pull the strings in Iraq, except Iraqi Shia hate Iran, just less than the Sunnis do. But there will be conflict within the Shia community with regard to the position of Iran in Iraqi politics.

In any case, with Iran dominating the region, and Pakistan constantly threatened by radical Islamic takeover, it's only a matter of time before nuclear weapons are transferred to terrorist groups. My guess is that we have about 20 years before multiple Western cities go up in flames.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Lincoln Chaffee remind you of the Cuban general in Red Dawn? on: November 14, 2006, 02:39:52 am
I'd vote for the Cuban guy before Chafee.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sen. Martinez to head RNC? on: November 13, 2006, 10:02:52 pm
Why should Martinez be RNC chair???

He ran a very mediocre, at best, campaign for his Senate seat. I mean, who the hell even thought of making him RNC chair? It's so random.

And very stupid. This is hardly going to get hispanic votes-- no one cares about the party chairman anyway, plus Martinez is Cuban not Mexican, plus that's not the GOP's problem anyway.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Murtha or Hoyer? on: November 13, 2006, 09:59:27 pm
Ideologically, I don't mind Murtha all that much.

But he is a criminal, easily one of the top 10 most corrupt people in Congress, probably top 5 of the next Congress. At least Democrats are taking a stand against corruption.

It does make for a good debate-- who is more corrupt, Murtha or Hastings? Jefferson  is probably on his way out but he's definitely competitive with those two.
18  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Survey USA Electoral Matchups out on: November 12, 2006, 11:16:52 pm
I thought Dems were just touting polls the other week saying how great Hillary was Huh
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Webb May Be Senate Maverick on: November 12, 2006, 03:25:14 pm
Well Virginia is more fiscally conservative than socially. So the Republicans high-spending ways in Washington doesn't play well here.

The movement towards Democrats is national, not local to Virginia or anywhere else. The GOP has bled slowly for a while and in '06 got pasted. When one party has some national success, it makes it look like various states are trending their way, when in fact they are not.
20  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Call me crazy, but... on: November 12, 2006, 03:18:21 pm
I think Hillary has a better shot against McCain than Obama. The latter is the Edwards of 2008... massively overrated.
21  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: 2008 rundowns on: November 12, 2006, 03:04:39 am

Former Sen. Gravel AK Campaign site DOA. I like him though.
Gov. Vilsack IA Campaign site DOA

Sen. Biden DE PAC -DOA
Sen. Dodd CT Senate page -DOA

Seem interested:
Sen. Bayh IN - running for Veep
Ret. Gen. Clark AR - nah
Sen. Clinton NY - favorite
Fmr. Sen. Daschle SD - DOA
Fmr. Sen. Edwards NC - longshot
Sen. Kerry MA - DOA
Sen. Obama IL - #2
Gov. Richardson NM - possibly the best Democrat in field, i.e. no chance.

Some others:
Fmr. VP Gore TN - Nixon?
Gov. Corzine NJ - LOL
Gov. Blagojevich IL - LOL
Gov. Bredesen TN - too conservative
Gov. Easley NC - uninterested
Fmr. Sen. Hart CO - DOA
Rep. Kucinch OH - joke
Sen. Levin MI - Huh
Gov. Schweitzer MT - too Montanan
Rev. Sharpton NY - no comment

Sen. Feingold WI
Fmr. Gov. Warner VA - I called him as Hillary's Veep pick years ago.


2 nobodies

Seem interested:
Sen. Allen VA - DOA
Sen. Brownback KS - DOA
Sen. Frist TN - DOA
Fmr. House Spk. Gingrich GA - grassroots support but... no way.
Fmr. Mayor Giulani NY - contender
Sen. Hagel NE - VERY DOA
Gov. Huckabee AR - uh, no
Rep. Hunter CA - err
Sen. McCain AZ - not as likely as many think, but strong contender
Gov. Pataki NY - DOA
Gov. Romney MA - contender
Fmr. Gov. Thompson WI - interesting but no chance

Some others:
Mayor Bloomberg NY - no
Gov. Bush FL - his brother F'ed him
Sen. Dole NC - LOL
Rep. Tancredo CO - not interested in a real campaign
Gov. Owens CO - the forgotten one
Rep. Pence IN - hopefully House Minority leader
Fmr. Gen. Powell - doesn't want it
Sec. of State. Rice CA - ditto
Gov. Rounds SC - he's from SD. Hopefully he runs for Sen.
Sen. Sununu NH - DOA
Sen. Santorum PA - not anymore

Left out Sanford and Pawlenty for GOP, should be in "some others."

For Dems, Napolitano could be Veep if Hillary not the nominee.

Probably a few others that could be Veep possibilities.
22  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: No Feingold in '08 on: November 12, 2006, 02:54:32 am
I respect Feingold more than most Democratic Senators, or Democratic politicians generally. But he his elections have tended to be close... there's no empirical reason to think he'd be a good general election candidate. It would depend on his campaign.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Districts that swung to the Republicans (percentage wise) on: November 12, 2006, 02:52:04 am
25% for a National Socialist was pretty impressive, I must admit.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Webb May Be Senate Maverick on: November 12, 2006, 02:50:42 am
Webb was very classy at his victory rally, praising Allen for his service in the Senate and some other things that quieted the crowd a bit. I do think it's possible Webb will wind up a little less like Kerry and Schumer than a lot of Democrats would like.

Virginia has been "trending left" for 175 years but has managed to stay center-right. Many uneducated observers of Virginia politics, i.e. most of the Democrats in this forum, mistake Virginia's unique political character for a trend.

While Duke won the white vote in Louisiana, Virginia elected the nation's first black Governor. People like Wilder and now Webb, in terms of their politics, have always been able to compete in Virginia. Nothing's changed. Hillary Clinton for one won't be competitive here.
25  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Republicans... what we should learn and what we should expect for 2008 on: November 11, 2006, 12:59:07 am
Social conservatives are the only reason the GOP ever got into the majority. Economic conservatives aren't enough. Personally I'm not religious but the idea of throwing social conservative overboard is beyond stupid... the GOP would have 50 House seats and 10 Senators.

And if you don't like conservatism, join the Democrats.
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