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14851  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 06:19:36 pm
Looks like we know who will be "Lincoln-ed" in 2012 if he even dares to stick around.

You mean "Santorum-ed"?

Nice try but considering Lincoln lost by a greater margin, she's the new low standard.  Wink  And it's "Santorum-ized" around these parts.

I would think Santorumized would be something similar to being sodomized, more than politics.
Wink
14852  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment? on: December 23, 2010, 06:15:05 pm

As for reapportionment, the Republicans in Pennsylvania will get rid of Altmire and pack the 13th with Democrats with certainty.



You know for certain? Who are you?  Tongue  Give me your idea for how Altmire is going to get axed and I'll see if you're for real.  Wink


It's already an R+6 district like the 18th but Murphy can win in an R+3 or R+4 district quite comfortably. Altmire only won because Hart was too insane for even her conservative constituents and his 2010 challenger was very weak. A few more Repblicans from the rural Sothwest will put Altmire in a very tough spot and the last thing PA Repblicans want is a moderate Democrat that  could become a potential statewide player in the near future. He will be a top target.

The tricky part is PA districting laws, not sure how mch that can complicate things though. Republicans have a lot of room here to do as they please as the western half of the state becomes increasingly Republican.
14853  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clarus Poll: Obama leads Romney/Palin & Bloomberg & Bush, but not Clinton on: December 23, 2010, 06:04:15 pm
Are people paying real money for this crap?

Quote
It was not paid for or sponsored by any client, candidate or political party.

Guess not?
14854  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 06:00:58 pm
Looks like we know who will be "Lincoln-ed" in 2012 if he even dares to stick around.

You mean "Santorum-ed"?
14855  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:50:06 pm
Nebraska elects Democratic Senators. Bob Kerrey was mch more liberal than Ben nelson and got re-elected in 1994, even.
Heineman requested extra stimulus fnds and initially supported the stimulus. He also asked for a "bailout" of some agriculutural industry for Nebraska. Don't think these wouldn't become issues, even if he is popular now. If he ran for Senate, primary challengers would hammer him hard. And they would likely succeed.
14856  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pence-Rubio 2012? *IF* Pence is the nominee, would Rubio be a wise VP choice? on: December 23, 2010, 05:44:02 pm
A Rubio pick would likely offend Latinos. Token minorities have never worked out for the GOP, hence Steele's spot on the list of 2010 losers despite it all. Give Rubio time to come into his own. Heck, give Pence some time to come into his own. He's only a Congressman.
14857  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:40:30 pm
He'd probably retire(?), but Im not sure what would be best for democrats...

Steve Lathrop would make a good candidate, but it's hard to see any Democrat actually winning. Especially Ben Nelson.
14858  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lieberman: I might run as a Democrat on: December 23, 2010, 05:34:13 pm
Low approvals did not stop Harry Reid from crushing a tea party nutcase in 2010. Lieberman will win if he is the Democratic nominee, except against maybe Jodi Rell.
14859  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:32:03 pm
I was under the impression that Heineman was a "moderate" Republican that Tea Party types hate?  I think that would give him some primary trouble.
14860  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Most Democratic "Big" state? on: December 23, 2010, 05:30:37 pm
Three large states that are pretty strongly Democratic. I will go with New York despite it's State Senate and NYC's long period without a Democratic mayor. It seems like nothing Republicans do will actually help them win there and the bench is nonexistent for future races. Kirk was elected in Illinois, but with less than 50 of the vote against an extremely pitiful candidate. California just saw a Democratic blowout despite the national environment.
14861  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment? on: December 23, 2010, 05:22:17 pm
Mary Bono Mack and Dan Lungren are in trouble in California, even with the nonpartisan redistricting commission. If they move some Democrats from the 23rd into Gallegly's district, he could also be in serious trouble. Capps' 23rd is a hideously drawn coastal gerrymander and Santa Barbara belongs with the rest of Santa Barbara and Vetura counties.

Lungren likely won't survive but I think the rest of California's delegation will remain.

As for reapportionment, the Republicans in Pennsylvania will get rid of Altmire and pack the 13th with Democrats with certainty.

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