Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 24, 2017, 10:02:30 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 590 591 592 593 594 [595]
14851  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is It Reasonable To Keep The House at 435 Members? on: December 24, 2010, 01:54:11 am
I think it's awful that states lose representation simply because they do not grow as fast as other states, or because another state is admitted into the union, simply to maintain an arbitrary size of 435 members, which was set at a time when the U.S. had a fraction of the modern population.

States are represented in the Senate, I might add.
14852  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Simmons: NRSC Enamored with Self-funders on: December 24, 2010, 01:47:31 am
Remember what they tried to do in Pennsylvania?
And now Toomey is a Senator. Would Snarlin' Arlen have been able to beat Sestak as a Republican? I'm not so sure on that one.
14853  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Grade the (potential) candidates on: December 24, 2010, 01:40:57 am
Democratic:

Barack Obama - B-
Mike Gravel - C
Alvin Greene - F
Jimmy McMillan - F
Howard Dean - B
Hillary Clinton - A-
Dennis Kucinich - D


Republican:

Mitt Romney - C+
Sarah Palin - F
Mike Huckabee - F
Newt Gingrich - F
Gary Johnson - D
Ron Paul - B-
Tim Pawlenty - C-
Haley Barbour - F
Mike Pence - F
John Thune - D+
Mitch Daniels - C
Herman Cain - F
John Bolton - F
Rick Santorum - F-
Donald Trump - B-
George Pataki - D
Rudy Giuliani - C+

Independent:

Ralph Nader - B
Michael Bloomberg - A
Jesse Ventura - B
Lou Dobbs - F
14854  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Simmons: NRSC Enamored with Self-funders on: December 24, 2010, 01:24:08 am
As terrible a decision as it was to foist Simmons this year, I disagree with it comes to self-funding candidates. The more of those we have, the less money the NRSC has to spend holding them above water. They can focus on other races.

Just tell the self-funders to screw off. They can use their limitless cash flow to fund PACs, donate to the NRSC, and donate to campaigns. They can't win themselves. But then why would they spend their money, you ask? Well, the Republicans in the Senate have done quite enough for the super-rich already right? You rub my back, I rub yours.
14855  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these 2016 Democratic Candidates do you support? on: December 23, 2010, 07:03:31 pm
Wow, most of these candidates end up flopping.

Cory Booker won't be able to run in 2016, but I'd love to see him President.

Booker can't beat Christie, so there's no way for him to get his foot in the dorr enough to make a Presidential bid until he's old ntil 2024. At this point we are looking way too far into the future.

Cuomo might be a good bet but he's not my favorite by any means.
14856  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH) on: December 23, 2010, 06:56:34 pm
How are you defining swing state?

Indiana has a higher PVI than Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Washington, etc.
It is only one point less partisan than California.
Im just basing it off 270towin.com site from the previous elections, nothing less or more

Indiana took 44 years to swing, based on previous elections. Smiley

14857  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP and House on: December 23, 2010, 06:55:03 pm
CO-07 is D+4. It is kind of marginal, but it's in that PVI territory that Repblicans have a really tough time breaking through. Much different, IMO, than a 50/50 district. Democrats would hold it as a open seat most likely.
14858  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH) on: December 23, 2010, 06:52:47 pm
How are you defining swing state?

Indiana has a higher PVI than Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Washington, etc.
It is only one point less partisan than California.
14859  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 06:50:03 pm
Looks like we know who will be "Lincoln-ed" in 2012 if he even dares to stick around.

You mean "Santorum-ed"?

Santorum already has a colloquial meaning unrelated to his margin of loss.

I believe it was referenced in the post right above yours. Smiley

I was simply joking with the Repuublican anyways. Sorry Keystone Phil!
14860  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is It Reasonable To Keep The House at 435 Members? on: December 23, 2010, 06:39:32 pm
The problem with the House is that distircting is based on population.

It should be based on voters.

435 is a large enough number. Members still need to be able to build personal relationships. I think most states and other countries have too many representatives.
14861  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Reapportionment and the 2012 election on: December 23, 2010, 06:31:00 pm
Six votes isn't much, given that Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada are evincing such a trend in the opposite direction.

You mean by electing a really conservative Republican governor in 2009 and three new Republicans to the House in 2010?

Well, touché, but Colorado and Nevada are anyway 15 votes.  


Pennsylvania is showing signs...

The Blue Firewall is impenetrable.
14862  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 06:19:36 pm
Looks like we know who will be "Lincoln-ed" in 2012 if he even dares to stick around.

You mean "Santorum-ed"?

Nice try but considering Lincoln lost by a greater margin, she's the new low standard.  Wink  And it's "Santorum-ized" around these parts.

I would think Santorumized would be something similar to being sodomized, more than politics.
Wink
14863  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment? on: December 23, 2010, 06:15:05 pm

As for reapportionment, the Republicans in Pennsylvania will get rid of Altmire and pack the 13th with Democrats with certainty.



You know for certain? Who are you?  Tongue  Give me your idea for how Altmire is going to get axed and I'll see if you're for real.  Wink


It's already an R+6 district like the 18th but Murphy can win in an R+3 or R+4 district quite comfortably. Altmire only won because Hart was too insane for even her conservative constituents and his 2010 challenger was very weak. A few more Repblicans from the rural Sothwest will put Altmire in a very tough spot and the last thing PA Repblicans want is a moderate Democrat that  could become a potential statewide player in the near future. He will be a top target.

The tricky part is PA districting laws, not sure how mch that can complicate things though. Republicans have a lot of room here to do as they please as the western half of the state becomes increasingly Republican.
14864  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clarus Poll: Obama leads Romney/Palin & Bloomberg & Bush, but not Clinton on: December 23, 2010, 06:04:15 pm
Are people paying real money for this crap?

Quote
It was not paid for or sponsored by any client, candidate or political party.

Guess not?
14865  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 06:00:58 pm
Looks like we know who will be "Lincoln-ed" in 2012 if he even dares to stick around.

You mean "Santorum-ed"?
14866  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:50:06 pm
Nebraska elects Democratic Senators. Bob Kerrey was mch more liberal than Ben nelson and got re-elected in 1994, even.
Heineman requested extra stimulus fnds and initially supported the stimulus. He also asked for a "bailout" of some agriculutural industry for Nebraska. Don't think these wouldn't become issues, even if he is popular now. If he ran for Senate, primary challengers would hammer him hard. And they would likely succeed.
14867  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pence-Rubio 2012? *IF* Pence is the nominee, would Rubio be a wise VP choice? on: December 23, 2010, 05:44:02 pm
A Rubio pick would likely offend Latinos. Token minorities have never worked out for the GOP, hence Steele's spot on the list of 2010 losers despite it all. Give Rubio time to come into his own. Heck, give Pence some time to come into his own. He's only a Congressman.
14868  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:40:30 pm
He'd probably retire(?), but Im not sure what would be best for democrats...

Steve Lathrop would make a good candidate, but it's hard to see any Democrat actually winning. Especially Ben Nelson.
14869  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lieberman: I might run as a Democrat on: December 23, 2010, 05:34:13 pm
Low approvals did not stop Harry Reid from crushing a tea party nutcase in 2010. Lieberman will win if he is the Democratic nominee, except against maybe Jodi Rell.
14870  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Magellan: Nelson trails Bruning, perennial candidate on: December 23, 2010, 05:32:03 pm
I was under the impression that Heineman was a "moderate" Republican that Tea Party types hate?  I think that would give him some primary trouble.
14871  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Most Democratic "Big" state? on: December 23, 2010, 05:30:37 pm
Three large states that are pretty strongly Democratic. I will go with New York despite it's State Senate and NYC's long period without a Democratic mayor. It seems like nothing Republicans do will actually help them win there and the bench is nonexistent for future races. Kirk was elected in Illinois, but with less than 50 of the vote against an extremely pitiful candidate. California just saw a Democratic blowout despite the national environment.
14872  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment? on: December 23, 2010, 05:22:17 pm
Mary Bono Mack and Dan Lungren are in trouble in California, even with the nonpartisan redistricting commission. If they move some Democrats from the 23rd into Gallegly's district, he could also be in serious trouble. Capps' 23rd is a hideously drawn coastal gerrymander and Santa Barbara belongs with the rest of Santa Barbara and Vetura counties.

Lungren likely won't survive but I think the rest of California's delegation will remain.

As for reapportionment, the Republicans in Pennsylvania will get rid of Altmire and pack the 13th with Democrats with certainty.

Pages: 1 ... 590 591 592 593 594 [595]


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines