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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Norway election, 11th September 2017 on: September 12, 2017, 02:18:38 pm
VG's results site looks the best of the various media outlets, lots of options on the maps

knowing how much some of us love a good results map broken down as small as possible, here is Oslo broken down by individual polling place, you can see a lot of patterns in the different party figures (east/west, centre/suburbs etc)

http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2017/valg/storting/fylker/oslo/

other large kommuner are divided into valgkretser (precincts I guess) but smaller ones are not
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Norway election, 11th September 2017 on: September 12, 2017, 02:02:42 am
So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: September 06, 2017, 09:49:46 am

Not any more!

The fact that Labour taking Southgate on a 10% swing  was one of the less memorable things about this election is quite striking (compared to places like Canterbury, Kensington and Hallam)

That's my excuse and I'm sricking with it!;)
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: September 01, 2017, 01:17:05 pm
some of the patterns will be down to Right to Buy, there's a fair few wards there with relatively high council housing and mortgaged (I live in a similar area but in Reading) the council tenants who bought their houses in the 80s and 90s are either still mortgaged or have sold up to move on to greener pastures, often for a nice profit.

in Enfield you can see the pattern of the parliamentary seats, Southgate safe Con, Edmonton safe Lab and Enfield North marginal and there are a few other boroughs similar
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 13, 2017, 01:42:06 pm
There are some papers this morning suggesting that Sinn Fein is actually considering taking their seats if Corbyn offers an Ireland unification referendum? Is there any merit to this or just the tabloids??

That'd be quite the departure of what they've been insisting these recent weeks.

I don't think many Brits would be particularly be bothered by such a poll, but it could risk enraging the unionists. Having said that, even another 7 seats would just mean a stronger opposition for Corbyn, so it's high-risk for not much benefit.

plus the merest sniff of this actually happening would get the DUP into coalition with the Tories even quicker.  softly softly catchey monkey
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 13, 2017, 06:13:21 am
There are only about 35 Blairites inside the Parliamentary Labour Party, so the idea of the Blairites leading the purge is well incorrect. If anyone is going to do it will be the Old Right under Tom Watson, and  most of the Unions. I mean at best the Purge will be bringing back the electoral college- so its not as if anyone will get expelled.



How many are Brownites? or do they overlap with the Blairites and old right these days?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 12, 2017, 07:30:46 pm
For my constituency of Edinburgh South we have:

Alan Beal (Liberal Democrat)
Jim Eadie (SNP)
Ian Murray (Labour)
Stephanie Smith (Conservative)

Ian Murray is the incumbent, notable for being the only Labour MP to survive 2015, Jim Eadie was the MSP for the related but distinct scottish parliament seat of Edinburgh Southern (which does not have the council estates in the south of the city that Edinburgh South has, so is consequently better for the tories than Edinburgh South and worse for Labour and the SNP) from 2011 to 2016 when he lost his seat to (again, notably) Labour. Stephanie Smith is a councillor for Liberton/Gilmerton (the part that is in South but not Southern) and Alan Beal is, as far as I can tell, some dude.

I'll be voting for Murray, and am cautiously optimistic, given our performance in the council elections and murray's position in the sweet spot of the constituency of being both against independence and brexit, of a hold. In fact, I'd go as far to say that this could be one of the only constituencies  in the whole country where labour increase their majority.


Interesting, most pundits seem to have Murray tagged as dead man walking, will be very interesting to see who's right.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 12, 2017, 07:10:03 am
only four candidates in my constituency, Reading West:

Alok Sharma, Con
Olivia Bailey, Lab
Meri O'Connell, LD
Jamie Witham, Green

Lib Dem is the only one who lives in the constituency, Green candidate and Tory incumbent live over the other side of town in the East seat, while the Labour candidate lives in Ealing, which seems to imply that they won't be bothering too much, in a seat that would be a must-win if aiming for a majority
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Is this UK election most like 2001 on: May 07, 2017, 10:23:59 am
I think that Labour are hoping that this will be like 1987, when it is actually going to be like 1983
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 27, 2017, 06:31:25 am
Oh FFS, can we just ban all non-British nationalities from this thread? If you're going to post about a week's old news about a defection involving a years-long retired MP that no one cares about, at least get his name right. Smiley

Might have happenned a week ago but it went under the radar a bit. I only saw five mins ago when NS tweeted a link to this piece he's written for them.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/former-mp-bob-marshall-andrews-why-i-m-leaving-labour-and-joining-lib-dems

Very interesting, even if it is full of the vilest heresies about the past, present and future (or lack thereof)  of the Labour party.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 25, 2017, 01:38:56 pm
Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

The English Democrats have, on occasion, stood in Monmouth, Newport and the South East region for the Welsh Assembly, they lost their deposits and got outpolled by Plaid, in an area that some people insist on banging on about really being part of England

as for IRV, the referendum in 2011 was for AV which is the same thing, so that's out

for the conservatives to get 20 seats in Wales they need nine gains: the four remaining seats in the North East are easiest, then Bridgend, both Newport seats, and two out of Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Swansea West.

FWIW I think they will get as far as Newport and stall, leaving them just short of a majority, but will still overtake Labour (assuming that the latter will lose Cardiff Central and Ynys Mon)
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 04:55:49 am
Yeah, that's the most likely at this point I think, I've been critical of CL/JB banging on so much about Progressive Alliance for a while, my branch also put in a motion at conference last year pointing out that it had not been voted on as party policy (it has now though I think).  I was also not surprised to see Labour reject it out of hand so quickly, what with Clause 1 and everything

muttering's I have heard so far are potentially Greens standing down in one of both seats in Plymouth which was one of the places in 2015 that the tory majority was smaller than the Green vote, but the issue is that we barely campaigned there, those voters actively chose not to vote for the Labour party and Labour can't expect to have them delivered on a platter without working to win them over.

Labour branch in Jeremy Hunt's seat in Surrey are considering standing down as well, but IMHO this should be so that they can get behind the NHS Action candidate who got 10% last time, rather than the Lib Dems, of course there's precedent for the LibDems backing that party's forerunners in Kidderminster in 2001, not that Labour would like to be reminded of that.

tl;dr, everyone's ideological baggage and mutual distrusts make PA a non starter, could've been done for 2020, but no chance this quickly, which I think was a minor contribution to May's deision to go for the snap poll
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao on: March 29, 2017, 09:36:16 am
YouGov poll asking people about things that could be reinstated following Brexit: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tl8kg6q3i9/InternalResults_170222_AfterBrexit_W.pdf

Death penalty at 36% support...must be the lowest ever, surely?

It's Britain's membership of the ECHR not the EU that precludes the return of the rope, and I think May will have a tougher time pulling Britain out of that.

this is the result of 44 years of right wing press saying that the EEC/EU is the source of all that is "wrong" with Britain. what about the rest:

imperial measures are fairly commonly used in parallel with metric and I don't see that changing any time soon, plenty of things still come in standard sized packs of 454g

smoking ban is completely unrelated to the EU, I was on a site visit in Germany last week and they had smoking areas inside factories and warehouses

Blue Passports, literally a symbolic gesture, no harm in it if it makes people happy,  the insides will still conform to more or less the same standards anyway

£.s.d was replaced before we joined the EU and the Dominions decimalised of their own accord in the 60's

incandescent bulbs: 33% of Ukip voters want to willfully use a less efficient product just..because?

corporal punishment: the ECHR ruled that it isn't a human rights violation as late as 1993, 11 years after British Laws Passed at Wetminster ended it in state schools
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: March 29, 2017, 06:35:02 am
it happens now and then. I vaguely remember it happening to a Labour candidate in Redbridge in 2010 I think who was a teacher, and  a couple of Lib Dems elected in the 2011 assembly were declared void initially, but were allowed to stay on because they quit from the bodies that they were part of and because thy had taken advice from a Welsh-language document that had not been updated to match the English one.

I'm pretty sure that Void and re-run is the standard response, the famous case of Tony Benn's conservative runner up getting the seat* was because it was clear to all concerned that Benn was illegible (as he had already been disqualified by inheriting his father's peerage, hence the by-election) whereas the issue at this byelection was only raised (AFAIK) during the count

*the same thing happened to a pair of Shinners in 1955 who had been convicted of Treason Felony, their Unionist opponents were declared the winners as their disqualification was well known (and advertised in the papers by the UUP) although one of the Unionists was found to be illegible and another byelection was held
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: March 29, 2017, 06:24:38 am
it happens now and then. I vaguely remember it happening to a Labour candidate in Redbridge in 2010 I think who was a teacher, and  a couple of Lib Dems elected in the 2011 assembly were declared void initially, but were allowed to stay on because they quit from the bodies that they were part of and because thy had taken advice from a Welsh-language document that had not been updated to match the English one.

I'm pretty sure that Void and re-run is the standard response, the famous case of Tony Benn's conservative runner up getting the seat* was because it was clear to all concerned that Benn was illegible (as he had already been disqualified by inheriting his father's peerage, hence the by-election) whereas this was only raised (AFAIK) during the count

*the same thing happened to a pair of Shinners in 1955 who had been convicted of Treason Felony, their Unionist opponents were declared the winners as their disqualification was well known (and advertised in the papers by the UUP) although one of the Unionists was found to be illegible and another byelection was held
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Norway election, 11th September 2017 on: March 22, 2017, 03:11:39 pm
this poll is interesting:
Labour: 33.7
Hoyre: 20.1
Centre: 14.3
Progress: 11.1
Christian Democrats: 5.1
Venstre: 4.3
Socialist Left: 4.1
Red: 2.8
Greens: 2.7


Compared to the 2013 election and the local elections in 2015:

Poll  2017  2015       ch     2013   ch
AP:  33.7   33.6     +0.1    30.8  +2.9
H:    20.1   23.4     -3.3     26.8   -6.7
SP:  14.3     8.0    +6.3       5.5   +8.8
FrP: 11.1   10.3    +0.8      16.3   -5.2
KrF:   5.1    5.6     -0.5        5.6   -0.5
V:      4.3    5.0    - 0.7        5.2   -0.9
SV:    4.1    4.0    +0.1        4.1     0.0
Rødt: 2.8    2.2    +0.6        1.1   +1.7
MdG: 2.7    5.0     -2.3        2.8    -0.1


so some fairly big changes, but largely similar to the local elections 2 years ago, the big exception being a drop for the Greens, although their share in polling did increase in the run up to the last election.

apart from their spike in 1993 in the run up to the EU referendum, SP haven't done this well since the 1970s
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: March 20, 2017, 01:04:51 pm
And if these constituencies were declared void by an election court, the expenses limit would be £100 grand per seat for the byelections
£100 grand per seat? That seems a lot for single constituencies.

i suppose it's to make up for the lack of "air game" in a general election, but yes, completely absurd
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: March 17, 2017, 02:49:07 pm
And if these constituencies were declared void by an election court, the expenses limit would be £100 grand per seat for the byelections
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 15, 2017, 05:53:56 pm
GL seems to be underperforming exit polls

Wait for the big cities...

Speaking of which, Amsterdam!!

GL top the poll, but only with 19.3% and D66 just a point behind
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 15, 2017, 05:44:48 pm
Gennep flipped from VVD to SP! but both have lower % than 2012

And PvdA <only> tanked by 15%
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017? on: March 03, 2017, 03:09:08 pm
Mike Nesbit holding a press conference, opened with "well I think we all know why we're here...''

good speech, definately ran what Sir Humph would've called a courageous platform
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017? on: March 03, 2017, 01:41:40 pm
as more optimistic posters than me predicted, CCLABALT transfers have put Claire Bailey ahead of Emma Little Pengelly, I winæt be happy until sheæs a couple of hundred clear of the other DUP candidate though, there will be a lot of UUP transfers up for grabs

meanwhile the UUP candidate has been eliminated in South Down, so we'll soon see whether they put Alliance ahead of the SDLP
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017? on: March 03, 2017, 10:12:16 am
West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.

I feel pretty good about it. Total Alliance+Green went from 26% to 28% in this election while the DUP total went from 22% to 21%. No way the Greens lose out to the DUP on those first preferences. It'll be DUP v. DUP for the last seat.

Bailey will get the lion's share of transfers from the second SDLP and Alliance candidates (as well as PBP and whatever the Cross Community Labour Alternative is) against the DUPers and do all right with UUP transfers. Which DUPer is out is much less certain and depends strongly on UUP and TUV preferences.

We'll just have to see.  Charter this morning on Twitter was that ELP was done for but she's only just behind.  It'll all cone down to where those UUP transfers go.

Looking at some of the other results,  it looks like one of those "the people have spoken, but we're not quite sure what they said" kind of days
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017? on: March 03, 2017, 09:37:28 am
West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017? on: March 03, 2017, 09:00:22 am
North Down is in. DUP, UUP and Alliance elected on the first count.  Second DUP in fourth and Green leader Stephen Agnew in fifth. Both are far enough ahead to get in but i know that the greens had hopes of Agnew topping the poll so a bit of a dissapointment.

So in three of the most strongly unionist cobstituencies, the DUP  have gone from 3 to 2 with the various others holding their ground
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