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276  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 26, 2017, 12:08:07 pm
I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

The swing also may be indicating a warmer, more active response to left-ish populist tactics (taking into account Quist's mediocre campaign) from the Democrats over hurrah-centrism of the past cycles.
277  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 10:59:27 pm
This result is expected - although this was a winnable contest, it was a long-shot for Dems from the start with the headlong anti-Quist spree from the Right. Gianforte's stunt yesterday seems to have not affected the race in a meaningful way, as frightening as that is, and he looks to be finishing between 6-10 pts at the moment. A loss is a loss, but that not an awful margin for Quist's poorly run and underfunded Montana campaign. Georgia should give us a clearer picture on how the national landscape is shaping up.
278  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 09:32:38 pm
I'm absolutely taken aghast that a Republican can literally bodyslam a reporter and still even have a chance of winning a congressional seat. It's madness.

"A few days ago I called the fake news the enemy of the people, and they are — they are the enemy of the people." - The Current President
279  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 09:18:37 pm
Regardless of the outcome, interesting to think how the result would have differed if early voting had not been a factor.
280  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 07:35:21 pm
Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik
Kyle Kondik Retweeted Brian Rosenwald
Probably two-thirds of total vote or so is already cast


As was said, undecideds vote on Election Day. That may be all it takes.
281  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 07:24:45 pm
282  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cost of single payer in Cali would be more than entire general fund budget on: May 24, 2017, 07:32:56 am

Here's the basic electoral math: If you try to cut the incomes of doctors, nurses, radiology techs, phlebotomists, etc., voters may be glad of the price break, but I'd be surprised if 1 percent would go to the polls and vote for you because you're the guy who cut doctor reimbursements by 17 percent. On the other hand, 100 percent of the doctors, nurses, radiology techs and phlebotomists will storm the voting places and make sure that they cast their vote against the jerk who wants to cut their incomes and, oh, by the way, destroy American health care.

And of course, similar electoral logic applies to coverage.  The electoral incentives run against any changes that would result in any fewer procedures being covered by insurance compared to what people are currently used to.  And I think this is a bigger problem in the US political system, because power is more diffuse.  Angry citizens can wield leverage against a few members of Congress who aren't obligated to tow the party line a way that they would be in a parliamentary system.


If single-payer was a single issue presented to voters, it would pass fairly comfortably. The electoral argument is the least credible in any opposing viewpoint to a national healthcare plan.

It would clearly need to be accomplished at the federal level if we're talking about costs and setting in place regulations to ensure the system remain soluble, but the point stands that if we can scrounge together a budget with surplus room for endless defense spending, there is little doubt our wealthiest country in the world can spare the cost to cover everyone with essential health needs. Even if that means *shudders* a tax increase on the wealthy.
283  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: President Johnson is Dead on: May 20, 2017, 11:26:08 am

Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-TX), 1950

Introduction: That's the Way It Was
  On the fifteenth memorial commemorating the tragic loss of President Lyndon Johnson, CBS aired a brief documentary program following its regular showing of WKRP in Cincinnati. Simply titled, L.B.J., the Robin Lehman piece touched on various high-profile moments in the life of the late president, starting with his ascendancy in Congress. The uncredited narrator bombastically explained, "Senator Lyndon Johnson attained the title of Majority Whip in 1951, serving for several years thereafter."

  In a hotly contested Senate election in 1948, Johnson defeated former Texan Governor Coke Stevenson. A muddled process through and through, this controversial and debatably unfair primary bout resulted in Johnson taking his first real steps into the swamp of party politics. He won favor with the Old Guard of Southern Democrats, notably Georgian Senator Richard Russell, and as the CBS narrator told true, this would propel him into national spotlight as the Majority Whip.

  Senator Johnson remarkably excelled at organizing his Democratic colleagues from this moment on, and did so without the slightest cause for concern. In mid-summer 1958, a reporter from the Washington Post exclaimed, "The influence of the Democratic wing of Congress is held less far less so by Senator McFarland, but the Majority Whip, Senator Johnson. McFarland sat observantly in this latest session as Johnson effectively passed the National Aeronautics and Space Act all his own. The influence of the senator from Texas may only be matched by that of Sam Rayburn in the House."

  As President Eisenhower neared the end of his final term, murmurs of the primary season made their way through Washington. Of this complex moment in political history, the CBS program only had this remark to say. "There was one clear choice for the Democrats: Lyndon Johnson. He conquered the Legislative Branch, and now he was on to the Executive to take the reigns in the White House. Before long, loyal Democrats rallied around Johnson straight to the fateful party convention in Los Angeles where he selected little-known junior Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts as his running mate."

  Ultimately, the conclusion reached in this segment does indeed match historical ends. However, those living from that era look soberly at 1960 sans rose-tinted glasses. LBJ supporter and Texas Governor to-be, John Connally, Jr., was present at the 1960 Convention and pieced the story together in an interview from "Johnson In Memoriam: The Power of Passage."

  Connally was recorded stating, "The convention in L.A. carried over the strain of the primary. Humphrey got washed by Jack in Wisconsin, and that Kennedy racked up the delegates from there on out. First New Jersey, the Pennsylvania, Indiana. Once Nebraska rolled around in May, that was the moment we finally managed to get through to him. [Johnson] started on the campaign trail just in time to pick up about 40 or 45% of that Nebraskan delegation. It was a shocker for the Kennedy-ites [laughter] to see a Southern Democrat leap forward like he did, but that's the way it was with Lyndon."

"Johnson has emerged as a close second in Nebraska, out-performing polls by an astounding figure."
ABC Radio Broadcast, May 11th, 1960
"Sen. Johnson wins Majority of Delegates in West Virginia. Sen. Kennedy narrowly takes Maryland."
Chicago Tribune, May 18th, 1960
284  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TDB: Trump is telling aides he wants Flynn *back in the White House.* on: May 18, 2017, 02:25:11 pm
Don't worry, Mr. Trump, when the investigation is over the two of you can share a beautiful prison cell.
285  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rosenstein at DoJ appoints Special Counsel to oversee Russia investigation!! on: May 18, 2017, 02:22:47 pm
Sen. Graham on Trump's "Hurting the Country" remark: "I would advise he cooperate with the decision."
286  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dow Jones has dropped 370 points in the midst of the Trump drama on: May 17, 2017, 06:55:19 pm
The financial sector is nervous that the scandals will prevent Congress from passing tax cuts and the slashing of welfare and food assistance. That's what this article means by "Investors questioning whether Trump's agenda can remain on track."
287  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: USA TODAY: Miss USA denounced the word 'feminist,' leaving some fans confused on: May 17, 2017, 05:15:53 pm
"I'm an equalist" is akin to "All Lives Matter". What a dunce.
288  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: so two huge freedom fighters were released today on: May 17, 2017, 05:13:24 pm
Great news on both accounts.
289  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In one sentence (or a few words) what is Obama thinking tonight ? on: May 16, 2017, 10:09:28 pm
"I wonder if this should mean an increase in my Cantor Fitzgerald rate."
290  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Trump Asked Comey to End Flynn Investigation on: May 16, 2017, 07:41:11 pm

So tired of all of this winning.
291  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Trump Asked Comey to End Flynn Investigation on: May 16, 2017, 05:18:56 pm
The sad part is Republicans are favored to gain seats in the Senate in 2018...so Trump is probably safe unless a military coup happens, or he loses in 2020 (and I'm not convinced we'll have that election).

The Democrats' realistic best hope at this point is to preserve their seats in the Senate, but with the chips in the air, the House may end up being in play.
292  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Trump Asked Comey to End Flynn Investigation on: May 16, 2017, 05:07:48 pm
Same guy who broke this story for the NYT broke the Clinton email server story too.

It's like poetry...
293  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Nancy Pelosi - Never thought I'd be praying for Bush to be President on: May 16, 2017, 07:12:27 am
I never thought I'd be praying for Dick Gephardt to be Minority Leader.
294  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hillary Clinton officially launches "Onward Together" PAC on: May 15, 2017, 06:50:24 pm

Warren sticks to the definitely-not-toxic-at-all Hillary branding.
295  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump revealed classified information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador on: May 15, 2017, 06:29:11 pm
McMaster said the story was false.

And we should believe McMaster and the WH because....
McMaster is a highly respected general and a truthful man.

If Trump gets himself impeached, this is going in my sig.
296  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / President Johnson is Dead: Turbulent Times in the New Frontier on: May 14, 2017, 01:00:18 pm
President Johnson is Dead
Turbulent Times in the New Frontier

~Table of Contents~
Introduction: That's the Way It Was
Chapter One: American Guardsman
Chapter Two: Ask Not

~Completed Election Results~ (Spoilers!)
Election of 1960

Johnson with Vice President Kennedy and Sec. McNamara in Palm Beach, 1963

Prologue: Dallas, Texas

Local television service in Dallas had suddenly been interrupted.
Visibly shaken and out of breath, network director Jay Watson delivered the shocking report.

"About ten or fifteen minutes ago, a tragic thing from all indications at this point has happened in the city of Dallas. Let me quote to you this. A bulletin, this is from the United Press, from Dallas. President Johnson and Governor John Connolly have been cut down by assassin's bullets in downtown Dallas. They were riding an open automobile when the shots were fired."
Jay Watson, WFAA

When the news broke, millions of Americans stood paralyzed by their radio and television sets. Onlookers in Dallas, excited and eagerly awaiting sight of the presidential motorcade on this brief visit, panicked as the shots first rang out. Federal agents stormed the crowds, searching for the assailant. Dallas police tracked down and arrested an agitated schoolbook depository worker suspected of firing the shots. As this man was taken into custody, an all-together separate contingent of local officers found and arrested a second suspect nearer to the scene of the shooting.

Although medical professionals worked speedily and tirelessly, President Lyndon Johnson was pronounced dead at 12:45 CST. Press Secretary Bill Moyors announced this harrowing outcome to a sea of reporters and local journalists. The First Lady had been delivering her final lines to the Dallas Gold Star Mothers Organization when she was quietly informed of the events which had transpired. Ms. Johnson was rushed to the hospital where, upon arrival, she collapsed out of grief.

The news cycle ran for 72 hours straight following the initial announcement. Anchors breathlessly stumbled over their words as they struggled to convey the magnitude of the assassination. Walter Cronkite on CBS TV held a steady tone in bringing the news together, but even he had trouble comprehending, and more so putting into words, exactly how the nation ought to move forward. President Johnson, albeit a controversial figure throughout his tenure, was beloved by a great deal of the nation. His experience with Congress had become an insurmountable boost in accomplishing his multi-point plan for a greater society. Now, the torch was forcibly ripped from Johnson's grasp and handed to another. Though time seemed frozen, the clocks ticked forward.

"... so help me God."
36th President of the United States, John Fitzgerald Kennedy. Air Force One, Dallas Love Field

7.18 Edit: Added Ch2
297  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump: ‘In America We Do Not Worship Government, We Worship God’ on: May 14, 2017, 12:27:41 am
Ugh. Does this speech really merit a dedicated thread?
298  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump on: May 13, 2017, 07:33:26 pm
Honestly, it is not easy to tell at this point, and four years is an eternity in politics.

The midterm elections will shed some light on Trump's re-election chances, in addition to demonstrating how effective the Democratic Party is as an opposition.
299  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Donald Trump such a scumbag? on: May 12, 2017, 07:02:49 pm
Money and Power.
300  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will Hillary Clinton be remembered in 2067? on: May 12, 2017, 07:01:33 pm
Other than those who were alive for the past twenty-odd years?

I suppose historians and politicos will know her as a presidential spouse, a State Secretary with a handful of scandals and the candidate who managed to lose to Trump. As for everyone else:

Apathy. Which is really all she deserves.
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