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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: Today at 10:03:17 am
You guys should really leave the thread to the grown-ups.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Why is Tim Keller Running For Mayor of Albuquerque? on: Today at 03:38:01 am
Is Governor worth at least 4 times Auditor? Because somewhat simplistically, if Albuquerque is 25% of New Mexico, being the executive of that city seems like it might be potentially better than a low-level position state-wide.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: Today at 03:10:01 am
If I were the Governor I would order Gloria to turn over the yearbook for analysis or I would reset the election date.

What kind of country do you think we live in? You can't just cancel elections because your candidate didn't work out. I really would hate to see what our system would look like if designed by contemporary conservatives. Literally zero interest in how the system works so long as it elects conservatives consistently. Sheesh

Republicans need to Learn to fight.

Huh

What have they been doing for decades now then? They literally just stole a Supreme Court seat from Obama, and like a hundred lower court seats as well. Republicans always push the limits of what is acceptable. If you think they don't fight at all, I can't imagine what you think actual 'fighting' is..

Honestly I think you need to bone up on contemporary politics and maybe revisit what you think is acceptable in elections and governing in a politically divided country.

He's a Republican in the age of Trump, hej obviously hates the Constitution.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Breaking: Sen. Al Franken accused of groping; this canít end well on: November 16, 2017, 11:38:46 am
This was claimed by forum old-timer Sam Spade back in the day.

Did the Atlas believe him?

Anyway, MN 2020 could be competitive if Franken decides to run for reelection anyway Cheesy (and Franken definitely won't run for president with this).

I don't remember it being believed. Then again it wasn't very detailed I think.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Breaking: Sen. Al Franken accused of groping; this canít end well on: November 16, 2017, 11:15:31 am
This was claimed by forum old-timer Sam Spade back in the day.

Spade was groped by Al Franken?


Tongue

He claimed that a woman he knew well (I think maybe related to?) had been sexually assaulted by Franken.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Breaking: Sen. Al Franken accused of groping; this canít end well on: November 16, 2017, 11:06:28 am
This was claimed by forum old-timer Sam Spade back in the day.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations on: November 13, 2017, 12:11:31 pm
That all GOP national politicians buy the story really does suggest it's true doesn't it?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: New 2018 Senate control rating? on: November 10, 2017, 07:54:25 am
Before it was high end of Likely R, now it's low end of Likely R. Tongue

The VA election suggests the wave is coming and the fact that the GOP is running a pedophile in Alabama means the Democrats have an outside chance at winning it. So D chances are up from like 5% to say 15% or something along those lines.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Incumbents Ousted on: November 10, 2017, 07:49:07 am
Anyone care to summarize what happened in Ohio? Anything noteworthy?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations on: November 09, 2017, 10:01:11 pm
So, the Republicans are gonna rally behind a child rapist now? I really wish the fate of the world rested on people with morals, faith and values rather than these false prophets in the Republican party.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Johnstown Never Believed Trump Would Help. They Still Love Him Anyway. on: November 09, 2017, 07:43:04 am
Article 15,862,171,586 on how Trump supporters are retarded. Journalist goes to Johnstown. "I don't trust you," local guy says. Journalists #Persists. Finally, he discovers the holy grail--the N word has emerged from the mouth of the locals. His job is done.

Beet, are you questioning the Smiley economic anxiety Smiley theory? That sounds very Smiley elitist Smiley of you.

You mean the theory liberals (intentionally or unintentionally) seem incapable of comprehending?

I'm sure the guy who called the NFL "N***ers For Life" would be a solid Democratic voter if only they proposed seizing the means of production. Lol

Nice strawman argument. Except the economic anxiety theory has never applied to (a) regular Republican voters or (b) ardent Trump supporters. It's designed to explain the American voters who switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016; I'd also contend that it should apply to those who voted for Obama in 2012 but abstained in 2016.

I don't think any rational person believes by adopting a Socialist or even Social Democratic/Populist policy program and rhetoric would win every working class voter. It's about reclaiming many of the White working-class voters who're open to such policies yet have been alienated from the Democratic Party, which could include many Republicans, but especially voters who don't participate. Turnout is always considerably higher the further you climb the socioeconomic ladder, so a lot of White working-class voters simply don't vote due to alienation from the existing political system. The point is to correct that; if we can drive up turnout for Democrats among currently abstaining White voters then you'll see the Republican percentage share of this demographic decline considerably.

This is an unusually good version of this argument.

I still am a bit skeptical because if you're anxious about your economic situation, a vote for "take away my healthcare to cut taxes for the rich" v "keep my healthcare and raise my wage" doesn't seem to make much sense.

Another aside is that I thought the economic anxiety was also used to explain Trump's primary victory which presumably involved very few Obama voters.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Political Correctness Come to the Claremont Colleges on: November 09, 2017, 07:40:34 am
I'm confused. The only thing that seems inconsistent with Freedom and Liberty here is your desire to restrict this person's freedom of speech.

Folks can say what they want.  Folks don't have the right to vandalize other people's property.  And folks don't have the right to expect me to comply with their directives as to how I should dress when I am within the rules of my school, job, etc.   



Who has vandalized any property? Do you even read the nonsense you post? It's a graffitti wall devoted to free speech. It exists solely so people can spray messages on it. And there is no "directive". There is a stated opinion on how people ought to behave.

Again, the only person here opposing free speech is you. Which makes sense considering your enthusiastic support for a president who said that those who care about freedom of speech are "stupid people". Tongue
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Political Correctness Come to the Claremont Colleges on: November 09, 2017, 07:13:12 am
I'm confused. The only thing that seems inconsistent with Freedom and Liberty here is your desire to restrict this person's freedom of speech.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: $1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread on: November 09, 2017, 07:09:54 am
Any chance swing-district Republicans get cold feet about this after yesterday's results?

LoBiondo has already decided against reelection. Tongue
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.2 on: November 09, 2017, 06:23:21 am
Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Quote
President Donald Trump is more popular with likely voters than he is with the general public, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that underscores why Republican lawmakers have largely stuck with the polarizing president despite his plunging approval ratings.

The poll, released on Wednesday, shows he polls better among people who voted in the 2016 presidential election than with the overall U.S. adult population Ė a group that includes both voters and non-voters. Only about 60 percent of the voting-age public took part in last yearís election.

In October, for example, 44 percent of 2016 voters said they approved of Trumpís performance in office, compared with 37 percent of the general population. Among Republicans, 82 percent of voters approved of Trump in October, compared with 75 percent of all Republicans.

Some 85 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2016 said they would do so again, the poll found.

I'm psychic Tongue

But really, this is why it's insane to think a strong third party run would help Democrats. His ~45% is going to stick with him come hell or high water. Third parties would do nothing but divide the anti-Trump vote and potentially cause a 2016 redux.

To be fair, while I think this is often true, 3rd party runs usually happens because of widespread dislike of the incumbent who thus loses anyway. See 1992, 1980, 1912 for example.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 09, 2017, 05:36:13 am
Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

This is driven by white voters in the exit polls, black female turnout did beat black male turnout.

Badger, loving the Sharia explanation. Cheesy
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 08, 2017, 03:16:41 pm
Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

Yeah, I guess it could just be off. Though part of my reaction here is that I would have thought most married couples would vote together (my parents certainly do) which would also make it less likely you'd just missample them as an exit pollster.

The DC/Maryland thing makes some sense though. If men are more likely to earn more or something and NOVA is richer maybe? Or it's the alt-right voters not letting their womens vote. Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 08, 2017, 03:09:17 pm
Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 08, 2017, 02:35:29 pm
I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're being dumb and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even dumber. But sure, keep doing it.

Brilliant comparison man

Well, it't not really a comparison. I just explained how a comment can be stupid even if it's true. I guess, ironically, you still didn't get it.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Absolute Bedlam on: November 08, 2017, 08:43:45 am
Devil's Advocate on the McSally decision:

Arizona has a PVI 4% more Republican than her district. If a wave is building maybe her chances at the former aren't that much worse than staying in her seat. Secondly, if the wave is real maybe she loses either way but being a losing senate candidate sets her up better for a comeback than being a losing House candidate. Tongue
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Frank LoBiondo is retiring on: November 08, 2017, 08:36:17 am
Holy s**t. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2010 precipitated by a cavalry charge of Democratic retirements?

11 Dems retired entirely, including some big names like Dave Obey, Bart Stupak, and Bart Gordon. 8 GOPers did.

It is well established that fundraising, retirements and nr of candidates running correlate with performance. And Democrats doing great on all those metrics.

That said, Al is correct that things could still change until election day. Right now it's looking fantastic though, no way around that fact.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 08, 2017, 07:55:58 am
I can't say I buy this rural area thing so much.

1. You can adapt. Saying Manchin is in trouble because Northam didn't do well in SWV makes no sense because Northam ran a campaign suited to winning Virginia, Manchin will run one for West Virginia. It'll obviously be very different.

2. Rural areas aren't necessarily favoured outside of the Senate. If D waves can lead to some un-gerrymandering they will hold much less sway.

3. In the long term, the future of the US in raw population terms is clearly in urban and suburban areas, not rural ones. Clinging to rural West Virginia probably isn't the way to win national majorities over the coming decades.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 07, 2017, 11:10:32 pm
I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're wrong and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even more incorrect. But sure, keep doing it.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: November 07, 2017, 11:05:14 pm
So we are up to 4 Democratic special election tonight, 11 for the year. Unprecedented gains.

Is that 2 NH + 2 GA races?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2) on: November 07, 2017, 11:03:56 pm
I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.
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