Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 22, 2017, 05:57:07 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 23
1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Seattle has a weird relationship with Amazon on: October 19, 2017, 07:17:10 pm
Also not every Seattlite would argue Amazon has been a net benefit to the city.

I would argue though that the city (and region, for that matter) was and has been unprepared for the kind of growth itís seen, both at the government level and the business level, and is just now trying to catch up

This. And I think Amazon realizes it, which is likely not an insignificant part of why they decided to create an HQ2. I hope that the new HQ2 city immediately plans massive zoning capacity increases to accommodate the population influx.

I should also note- Amazon is not going to stop growing in Seattle. In the past month they've leased an additional 1.03 million square feet of space. They're currently building 1.1 million square feet, and will start construction on another 850k shortly. That's space for an additional 11-13k workers, on top of years of similar growth and you begin to see why there's a strained relationship between the city, residents, and Amazon.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: October 18, 2017, 01:02:20 pm
I think Mosqueda has it in the bag.
She'll get the vast majority of Nelson voters.

I hope Moon wins, but I think it'll be difficult. It would be nice to get some polling.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: October 17, 2017, 05:05:17 pm
In a shock turn of events, the Seattle Times is endorsing Jon Grant.

I'm certainly not complaining but this a shock from the stiffs at the Times editorial board.

It really isn't. They're endorsing the candidate they perceive to be the most anti-density. (See Murakami endorsement (who actually is anti-density), Durkan endorsement (again, not at all so)).
They did the same with Sara Nelson (plus for other reasons), even though both her and Grant are not actually so.
Suburban Times strikes again.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: GOP Debate on: October 10, 2017, 05:55:41 pm
Time to switch to the red side...?

Didn't you have a D avatar for the 2012 election season?
5  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you personally know a Muslim IRL? on: October 09, 2017, 11:59:41 pm
Yes, (normal) being Bosnian and all. Plus, I've gone to school with many Ethiopian, Somali, Pakistani, and Indian Muslims. Almost all the Arabs/Turks/Iranians I've met have been in professional/academic settings and I'm fairly sure 80%+ of them are atheists.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kamala's Ridiculous Redistricting on: October 07, 2017, 09:53:02 pm
My 7-4-LoBiondo map, though clearly a dummymander.
I used Kamala's PVI calculation method for thread consistency.


North Jersey inset


South Jersey inset


NJ-1 - D+22
NJ-2- R+1.5 (Obama by 14,700)
NJ-3 - R+3.5 (McCain by 22)
NJ-4 - R+3.5 (McCain by 194)
NJ-5 - R+4 (McCain by 1,543)
NJ-6 - R+4 (McCain by 1,231)
NJ-7 - D+23.5
NJ-8 - R+5
NJ-9 - R+4
NJ-10 - R+4
NJ-11 - D+34
N-12 - D+24.5
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: October 06, 2017, 09:48:16 am
Agree with Ritterseiser probably being the strongest, though I like Das.

Also the Stranger employs some very good writers (Heidi Groover) and some very annoying d**kheads (Dan Savage)

Savage has coasted on making fun of Rick Santorum a decade ago for a loooong time

Though I do credit him for being a major voice in the marriage equality debate in WA in 2012. Crazy how fast that issue died down in just a half decade
Also on housing. http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/05/22/25158186/doing-something-real-about-gentrification-and-displacement
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kamala's Ridiculous Redistricting on: October 05, 2017, 02:15:08 am
Kamala, you inspired me to make a 7R-4D-1 LoBiondo map for NJ.
I don't want to hijack your thread, but I'd be happy to show it.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: General on: October 02, 2017, 11:31:09 pm
Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!

10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: September 30, 2017, 07:00:46 pm
Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: September 30, 2017, 05:51:44 pm
Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: September 30, 2017, 01:08:37 am
Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%

3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 22, 2017, 04:03:55 pm
Tossup R -> Tossup R

Let's see if the R Establishment coalesces around Rossi.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 08, 2017, 01:53:26 pm
A glance at the WA general thread would reveal that there is indeed a good D bench. Wink
Mallot has 4 young daughters, so I see why he looks to be out.

Pat Sullivan would a good candidate. Hurst as well, but isn't he in 70s?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 07, 2017, 12:08:30 am
Anyways, according to DRA, Rossi won this district 55-45 during his 2010 Senate run, so if he runs I imagine he wins.

That was in a 4% loss for him statewide. Hardly typical for a Congressional race in Washington. Hard to imagine the 2018 results being that favorable for Republicans. Rossi would have a chance, but no one should be saying that he will definitely win.

Oh, and as far as the Washington gubernatorial race goes, some wise American men were fond of telling me last year "you lost, get over it." I think that may apply here.
You're side lost by 70,000 votes Dino lost by 100ish votes after 3 counts.

Perhaps the best thing I've ever seen on Atlas.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 06, 2017, 04:39:59 pm
I'm not quite as optimistic. Tossup D.

This is fairly R district downballot. It's got suburbs like Issaquah, Sammamish, Auburn, and Kent that are fairly D on both sides of ballot, but the unincorporated rural communities in Pierce County (and some of King) and smaller suburbs, Covington, Maple Valley, Black Diamond, Enumclaw, and Bonney Lake are not. Combine that with solidly red Eastern portion it becomes a turnout game.

Anti-trump sentiment will probably be enough to get a good D over the top. It'll still be a tough election.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: September 06, 2017, 04:25:17 pm
I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 06, 2017, 11:25:24 am
Quote from: Seattle link=topic=272257.msg5812747#msg5812747

Two-term state senator Mark Mullet of LD5? Which is almost entirely comprised within WA-8.

Oops, I seem to distinctly remember that was said by another WA poster - guess I was wrong.



Granted, it would mean the Rs have a chance of once again reclaiming the state senate with their likely upcoming loss in LD-45.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-8: Reichert retiring on: September 06, 2017, 11:17:26 am
I remember from an earlier discussion, that there are no local dems within the district with a profile to run here - Democrats are probably going to need to recruit a popular businessperson/teacher/veteran/ etc. But this is probably the second guaranteed pickup after FL-27 since it has a D+1 to Even PVI.

Two-term state senator Mark Mullet of LD5? Which is almost entirely comprised within WA-8.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: September 05, 2017, 06:13:47 pm
Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 11, 2017, 12:15:28 pm
I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 04, 2017, 11:26:58 am
Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 03, 2017, 06:19:46 pm
Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Latest update:

Total votes: 142,556 (+38,000) out of 187,000 (as of the 2 PM update)
Cary Moon       16.72%   23,417  +.98%
Jessyn Farrell   12.44%   17,419  +.46%
Mike McGinn     6.65%     9,316   -.42%
Jenny Durkan   30.19%   42,281  -1.33%
Nikkita Oliver   14.88%   20,839  +1.07%
Bob Hasegawa  8.58%    12,011  -.16%

Moon - Oliver vote % difference same as election night results, but margin has increased to 2,600.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 02, 2017, 06:13:51 pm
Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Good results for the urbanist candidates. I think it's fairly safe to say now that Moon has clinched the second spot. Oliver would have to match Durkan's current percentage with the remaining ballots to make up a 2,000 vote deficit.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 02, 2017, 04:24:59 pm
Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 23


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines