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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should democrats give up on NC and focus elsewhere? on: October 18, 2017, 04:25:26 pm
Charlotte and Raleigh are growing while the rest of NC is declining, it wont be the tipping point by 2020 but it still gave Hillary a double digit vote in the under 50 category. The 3rd party vote for Johnson and Stein could also move back to the Dems. Cooper proved that he could win the state without the rural vote.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida and the Trump Cuban policy on: September 03, 2017, 09:50:16 pm
2018 is going to be a wipeout in Miami for the GOP like 2014 was for Dems in West Virginia. Rubio also did well in Miami because Murphy ran a completely ghost campaign.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everyone assuming Trump will win FL in 2020? on: September 03, 2017, 09:48:10 pm
I think Florida may be the tipping point in 2020. Trump won it by 1.2%, a very weak swing from Obama's 0.9 win in 2012. Trump got big gains in north central FL but population growth probably makes this a tossup. I would honestly put Florida higher than PA WI for a Dem in 2020. MI was a fluke and probably goes blue with any investment by the party.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everyone so obsessed with Steve Bullock? on: September 03, 2017, 09:45:57 pm
He would have to run on the economic left, even if he's farther right on issues like gun control. Only way he'd gain any traction is to use Bernie's language.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida and the Trump Cuban policy on: September 03, 2017, 11:02:01 am
Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50% on: September 01, 2017, 11:42:12 pm
Dems would be better if they had Kander here
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden VS Bullock VS Warren Primary on: August 24, 2017, 10:14:45 pm
Bullock's path is if Biden doesn't run and Warren flames out on the trail/at debates. Before you dismiss Bullock entirely, don't discount the Dems desire for a brand new face. One of those PPP polls had "someone else" very high on the list. That said, he would need to visit college campuses/offer something that others don't.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will ultimately win the Arizona senate seat? on: August 23, 2017, 06:55:35 pm
If its Ward, these are the types of open seats that flip easy in a wave year. AZ was only Trump by 3.5 and he has plenty to lose among white college grads around Phoenix from 2016.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Flake America Great Again on: August 23, 2017, 06:54:24 pm
The Dems are going to pick up this seat.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2028: VP Stacey Abrams/Gov. Buttigieg vs. Gov. George P. Bush/Sen. Ben Quayle on: August 16, 2017, 11:47:39 pm
This can happen:

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the guy for 2020. on: August 15, 2017, 01:05:06 pm
Bullock needs to run far to the economic left, that's how to offset issues on guns.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the guy for 2020. on: August 14, 2017, 08:03:02 pm
Bullock is what the Dems need, the ones the DC crowd promote like Booker and Cuomo have absolutely no appeal outside the northeast corridor.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT Sen 2020- Bullock running? on: August 13, 2017, 06:42:25 pm
He'd be a perfect VP for Warren
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: States where Trump will almost certainly do worse than in 2016.... on: August 13, 2017, 02:43:17 pm
Florida too, has no room to grow with whites there
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NC Sen-Could Cooper run on: August 12, 2017, 03:12:32 pm
Doubtful, he could have run for Senate in 2008 and probably gotten backing over Hagan but chose to stay in NC.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Flake News! on: August 11, 2017, 11:38:10 pm
If this seat becomes an open one, this is the type that flips with a president at 38% approval. Also, Arizona 2018= Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin 2010??? I can see a left turn here.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should the 2020 conventions be held? on: August 08, 2017, 10:45:03 pm
I say Detroit for the 2020 DNC, Phoenix if they insist on the sun belt.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did left-leaning journalists/pundits favor hillary so much over bernie? on: August 08, 2017, 03:29:04 pm
Silver and Cohn were warning that Trump could win. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 25-30% shot, a roughly -5 favorite in an NFL game for example.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5 on: August 08, 2017, 10:24:56 am
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Bernie is the nominee, will you stay home or vote for someone else? on: August 08, 2017, 08:00:56 am
Most people who supported Bernie are not going to jump on a Booker or Cuomo train either. The problem is that Bernie types are sick and tired of the lobbyists, student loans and everything D.C. has brought. Thomas Frank describes this perfectly in his new book. Dems are making a huge mistake by disparaging the Bernie crowd.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Democratic primaries are gonna be such a sh*tshow on: August 06, 2017, 11:56:02 pm
It will be a very nasty 2020 primary but a needed nasty. The DC/Clinton insiders will call everyone a racist who doesn't love Booker, Cuomo and Harris but voters won't buy it this time.

If a progressive wins a plurality of delegates at around 40% but the party gives the nomination to someone else, all hell will break loose with the Bernie faction.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CNN: 26 Million Reasons Why Pelosi Isn't Going Anywhere on: August 06, 2017, 11:37:13 pm
Pelosi needs to be disposed of in the next year. She is a complete loser and holding the party back. Her record is miserable, it's like having a bad QB and keeping him after endless 6-10 seasons.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: There’s no such thing as a Trump Democrat on: August 06, 2017, 10:33:27 pm
The media is promoting terrible 2020 candidates like Booker, Cuomo and Harris.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: There’s no such thing as a Trump Democrat on: August 06, 2017, 08:11:37 pm
It's the WashPo trying to get Dems to only focus on suburban professionals and rich donors. The county maps from 2000, 2004 along with 2016 prove there is a significant number of Obama Trump voters who also voted for Gore and Kerry. These voters are winnable again to an extent, Biden would have probably gotten plenty of them.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Arizona trend Democratic again in 2020? on: August 05, 2017, 03:08:47 pm
Arizona will be part of any Democratic victory in 2020, I'm serious.
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