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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Erik Paulsen lose to Dean Phillips? (MN-03) on: November 18, 2017, 10:41:57 pm
I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

Agree. Paulsen is much more established and has won easily even in Democratic years. Lewis is a freshman who barely squeaked in in 2016.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Obligatory Franken Potential Replacement Poll on: November 18, 2017, 05:52:23 pm
Peterson easily

First of all he could hold the senate seat for as long as he wants a true moderate
Second the GOP would finally pick up Minnesota 8th.

-Peterson would get crushed in the 2018 Democratic Primary.

- He represents the 7th, not the 8th.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Obligatory Franken Potential Replacement Poll on: November 18, 2017, 05:46:00 pm
- It is very unlikely Franken resigns unless something else drops.

- Ellison would be a horrible choice and would likely lose statewide.  I live in rural Minnesota and sadly a black Muslim from Minneapolis would do even worse than Clinton did outstate.

Why would someone who voted for Barack Obama twice in 2008 and 2012 not vote for someone based on being a Muslim?  

- Obama is not a Muslim
- Ellison is far more Liberal than Obama and Obama is far better politician. 
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Doug Jones narrowly wins ... on: November 18, 2017, 02:07:45 pm
Not a chance. Only question is if he would vote as a moderate/conservative in the Senate in a hopeless bid at re-election or if he DGAF and lets his inner liberal loose.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Obligatory Franken Potential Replacement Poll on: November 18, 2017, 02:00:30 pm
- It is very unlikely Franken resigns unless something else drops.

- Ellison would be a horrible choice and would likely lose statewide.  I live in rural Minnesota and sadly a black Muslim from Minneapolis would do even worse than Clinton did outstate.

- Swanson is the obvious favorite. Maybe Smith (Dayton favorite) or Walz (I think he prefers the Governors race).

- If a placeholder is appointed it would not be Mondale (he's 89 years old) but maybe Smith (if she does not want the job permanently)  or maybe retired state supreme court justice (and NFL Hall of Famer) Alan Page.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How long will Scott Walker continue to run for Governor? on: May 28, 2017, 10:28:13 pm
Until the voters are smart enough to quit voting for him.

FWIW Tommy Thompson was elected to 4 consecutive Terms.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Ellison for Minnesota Governor? on: May 28, 2017, 10:20:47 pm
1) Ellison wouldn't win and he is not going to run. Ellison himself has said tim Walz will be next Governor of Minnesota.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/04/19/rep-keith-ellison-expects-rep-tim-walz-will-be-minnesotas-next-governor/

Quote
U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison predicted Wednesday that his fellow Minnesota Democrat, Congressman Tim Walz, will be Minnesota’s next governor.

2) Franken is not running for President.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/05/24/democratic-sen-al-franken-says-he-wont-run-for-president-against-trump-2020/22107648/
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2017/2018 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread on: March 22, 2017, 12:58:07 pm
Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

So is word on the ground that Swanson is staying out, then? Thought she was the DFL juggernaut this time around

No word on Swanson but my guess is she still gets in.  She would be a solid candidate but I wouldn't use the term juggernaut. IMHO Walz would be a slight favorite over her for the nomination.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2017/2018 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread on: March 22, 2017, 09:42:10 am
Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Was Obama's Healthcare the biggest blunder & missed opportunity for a Dem? on: March 03, 2017, 11:00:57 pm
He got passed what could be passed.  It was basically a Republican alternative to Hillary's plan in the 90s.  It was immensely better than the status quo...and if people had an interest in making it work, it can work.

That said, I support single payer.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will prayers for Donald Trump work? on: March 03, 2017, 10:57:23 pm
God isn't real.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 11:29:36 am
Total turnout in Orange county FL just passed the total turnout of 2012.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:48:06 pm
Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:25:57 pm
Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

I believe only one location has extended hours.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:17:50 pm
Turnout in Miami-Dade over 50K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795415767688871937

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:10:44 pm
Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:43:32 pm
You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?

Again there is a difference between self identified Independents and and those who are registered as NPA.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 04:26:04 pm
Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

My guess by the time early voting is over Dems will have a 1-2% lead. Souls to the polls is this coming Sunday and while all the major Democratic leaning counties will be open for early voting Sunday most Republican leaning counties will be closed.  Also  with so many voters voting early election day voting is bound to be way down. Tougher to make up a deficit with fewer voters.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 02:16:18 pm
Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:02 am
Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

Sunday's numbers will be interesting in Florida. All the big Democratic leaning counties will be open for EV while most of the Republican leaning counties will be closed.  
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 12:01:45 am
GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: November 02, 2016, 11:22:45 am
https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/793850018662940672

New @QuinnipiacPoll for FL, NC, OH & PA out at 3pmET today
23  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:24:13 am
lol Michigan polling.

FWIW they were one of the better pollsters for the Primary.  (No I don't believe they are close this time).
24  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:21:03 am
Huge *, in the field for 2 months!
25  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:19:23 am
http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf

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