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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Doug Jones narrowly wins ... on: November 19, 2017, 03:10:24 pm
I think it will just be a mirror image repeat of Scott Brown - upset special election victory, and then lose election to a full term in a presidential year (albeit by a narrower margin than would otherwise be expected).

Maybe he'll lose something like 46-53 in 2020.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Political Report Rating Changes on: November 19, 2017, 02:26:17 pm
I really don't think Roskam is in as much danger as people say he is. That's pretty heavily Republican turf there (I grew up in IL-09, Schakowsky's district, and DuPage County is one of the more Republican parts of the state). And given the huge Democratic primary field, I have my doubts about his vulnerability. If he does lose, then a Democratic wave is imminent.

The district is also quite well off, especially in the part of the district in St Charles and Barrington. Those areas are the epitome of the "I don't care about social issues as long as I get a tax cut" suburban Republicans. Important of course to note that it doesn't matter if those people actually lose out on the tax plan, only that they believe it. And there's a widespread perception that they will.

But they're not getting a tax cut. At least not a meaningful one.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of John Kerry on: November 19, 2017, 02:20:37 pm
Massive HP as a political figure and as a person. One of my biggest regrets in terms of political views was not opposing his nomination for SOS in 2013 and thinking that he would do a decent job.

My least favorite Secretary of State of the 21st Century. Also likely one of my least favorite U.S. SOS's in general.

He rivals Dulles' in arrogance and cluelessness about the Middle East.

Arrogance and cluelessness is thinking that nuking Iran is going to solve all of your problems.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Worker describes experience in troll factory on: November 19, 2017, 02:16:02 pm
This is what I keep thinking when I hear the term "troll factory."

At first I thought you were talking a factory that made these:


5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: $1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread on: November 19, 2017, 02:15:23 pm
The thing that shocks me is certain people here say how suburanties were a deadend for dems because once Trump is gone and the culture warrior stuff dies down they'll go back to the GOP but this almost guarantee the suburbs going dem as now they are going to get hit in the pocketbook by Trump/GOP as well

It's bewildering how they seem to be almost trying to foster a realignment along the lines of the 2016 presidential election.

It would be easy for the suburban swing to the Democrats to have just been a fluke owing to a uniquely positioned Republican candidate. But the Republicans in elections this year have been running on the sort of culture war and anti-immigrant policies that offend suburbanites, and now Republicans in Congress seem dead-set on passing a tax bill that amounts to a redistribution of wealth toward the super-rich and business owners and away from the "merely" well-off and white collar salaried professionals.

I still do not understand why someone should pay a lower tax bill simply because they live in a state that has high state taxes and property taxes. IF you live in and vote for higher taxes in your state for a variety of reasons, more power to you, but I don't think you should then expect to get let off the hook at the federal level. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Also, anybody who is paying 10,000 dollars in property taxes is the type of person that represents the "rich" that the sanders wing wants to heavily tax.

Funny how they garner sympathy from the left when it is the GOP that targets their unfair tax deduction. 

That's a very un-conservative thing to say, Marty. Californians' money belongs to Californians. They have a right to keep more of it in California rather than have Donald Trump and the GOP Congress redistribute it to states like Montana and Mississippi.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX Sen: Cruz gets a challenge in the GOP primary on: November 19, 2017, 01:07:51 am
we only have primary runoffs and there is no chance Cruz doesn't get a majority of the vote in the primary lol

John Cornyn only got 59% of the primary vote in 2014 and his only challengers were Steve Stockman and like half a dozen no-namers who got like 2% of the vote each.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Janet Napolitano still a corrupt liar on: November 18, 2017, 04:58:27 pm
The UC System seems to have been having a lot of issues the past few years. Before this, there was Linda Katehi's incompetent, kleptocratic administration of UC-Davis.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: $1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread on: November 18, 2017, 04:56:55 pm
The thing that shocks me is certain people here say how suburanties were a deadend for dems because once Trump is gone and the culture warrior stuff dies down they'll go back to the GOP but this almost guarantee the suburbs going dem as now they are going to get hit in the pocketbook by Trump/GOP as well

It's bewildering how they seem to be almost trying to foster a realignment along the lines of the 2016 presidential election.

It would be easy for the suburban swing to the Democrats to have just been a fluke owing to a uniquely positioned Republican candidate. But the Republicans in elections this year have been running on the sort of culture war and anti-immigrant policies that offend suburbanites, and now Republicans in Congress seem dead-set on passing a tax bill that amounts to a redistribution of wealth toward the super-rich and business owners and away from the "merely" well-off and white collar salaried professionals.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McConnell floats Sessions as write-in candidate in Alabama. Your thoughts on: November 14, 2017, 09:55:21 pm
It would depend somewhat on how Alabama's laws roll regarding counting write-in votes.

Most Southern election laws are left over from the days when the Democratic Primary was tantamount to election.  Those laws were written to prevent "sore losers" from running as Independents, and that includes write-ins.  In Florida, you have to qualify to be a write-in, otherwise your votes won't count.

For example, would a vote for "Jeff Sessions" count?  Would one have to call him "John Jefferson Sessions" or Jefferson Sessions?  Would the votes for Jefferson Sessions and the votes for Jeff Sessions be counted, but as for separate candidates? 

Alaskans re-elected Lisa Murkowski as a write-in, after being stuck with Joe Miller, and Miller had nowhere near the problems Moore has now.  It could work, but it could also be sabotaged by existing laws.  Sessions has nothing to lose, however, and I don't think he'd have to quit if he doesn't campaign.

His name is Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, III, so attempting to vote for "John Jefferson Sessions" probably wouldn't be helpful.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will 2018 be a worse defeat than 2006 for the GOP in the house on: November 14, 2017, 08:09:09 pm
In my opinion 1994 was worse for the Democrats in the house than 2010. Yes they lost more seats in 2010, but 2010  basically just wiped out the gains from 2006 and 2008 (which only went dem because of how unpopular the GOP was then) . In 1994 on the other hand the Democrats were not over stretched(they had 258 seats than which was less than the amount they had from 1990-1992 and for many congressional sessions before that) so most of the GOP gains were actually gains and not just a reversal  of a wave election.


So to really asses how bad 2018 is , just sholdnt be based on how many seats they lose but how long term the consequences of losing that election is.

2010 was different because there was a structural realignment component to it.

That was the year that the Democrats' last footholds in the non-urban South were wiped away. Those seats aren't going to go back to the Democrats when the political climate changes.

1994 didn't have as much of that. You had more seats that went to the GOP and then were won by the Democrats again at a later date.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McConnell floats Sessions as write-in candidate in Alabama. Your thoughts on: November 14, 2017, 07:51:34 pm
I'd support any republican that isn't Roy Moore. Sessions is to the right of me but I don't think he is as evil as the media portrays him.

He has lied under oath repeatedly to Congress.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Gene Green (D-Texas 29) Retiring on: November 13, 2017, 10:14:47 pm
He's been in office 25 years. And being in congress is a miserable job these days.

With him retiring and Beto running for Senate, Lloyd Doggett could likely be the only white Democrat in the Texas congressional delegation.

I think Laura Moser has a pretty good shot of beating Culberson in TX-07.

She would be the second white woman to be elected to the House from Texas and the first to be elected as a Democrat.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Gene Green (D-Texas 29) Retiring on: November 13, 2017, 09:29:47 pm
He's been in office 25 years. And being in congress is a miserable job these days.

With him retiring and Beto running for Senate, Lloyd Doggett could likely be the only white Democrat in the Texas congressional delegation.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Moore foundation attorney to Don Lemon: 'Don Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy' on: November 13, 2017, 12:00:11 am
i hate these people. sexual assault of a minor is not a joke.

No, it's not. For these people, it's a political weapon to bash people over the head with. If "their" guy gets caught, either deflect and remind everybody else about some guy ostensibly on the other side that did the same thing (which makes it okay to support your guy, somehow, despite doing the same thing) or just start calling people names I guess.

We can never hope to achieve the level of enlightenment these paragons of virtue have reached. We'll never understand it.



True enough.

Moore's attorney was pretty classless in calling Lemon names.  That being said, Lemon is one of the worst cases of a "newsman" with an activist leftist agenda.  I have no respect for Lemon as a "journalist"; he's a pundit in disguise.

And Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson aren't?
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Puerto Rican Wave Hits Florida, Carrying Big Political Implications on: November 12, 2017, 10:15:32 pm
The longer Trump drags his feet on rebuilding Puerto Rico, the more of them will come.

And guess what, Republicans? THEY'RE ALREADY AMERICAN CITIZENS. No amount of immigration restriction can stop them. Muahahahahaha.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Trump is rapidly reshaping the judiciary. Here's how on: November 12, 2017, 10:14:20 pm
And those nominees include a 36 year old who just got his law degree 3 years ago and has no judicial experience.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of this SNL skit on: November 12, 2017, 10:12:46 pm
Yo soy Tim Kaine!
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dick Cheney vs Donald Trump on: November 12, 2017, 10:08:53 pm
Dick Cheney has been a force for good his whole life. Trump definitely isn't good for anyone except morons who think they're owed something because daddy and granddaddy's job doesn't exist anymore.

If Cheney had been President 2009-2017, Ukraine, Finland, and Georgia would be members of NATO by now, plus Syria, Iran, and North Korea would have been liberated. There would have been no ISIS because American troops would have never left Iraq. The annexation of Crimea never would have happened, because Cheney would have sent F16s up Putin's ass.

Trump, on the other hand, is an immoral playboy, he's anti-vax, and he doesn't care for America's allies.

We barely had the resources to sustain a mediocre "liberation" of Iraq. What the hell makes you think we'd be capable of any of the things you're suggesting?
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would this reform to both parties help the country on: November 12, 2017, 07:31:45 pm
This already happens.

They lose election anyway because most voters don't look past the party label anyway and assume the candidate's views are identical to the national party.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations on: November 12, 2017, 05:51:56 pm
If Jones at least pretends to be a moderate, the 2020 race will probably be a Tossup. Knowing AL Repulicans, they will probably blow it again. Not good!

Nope. At best it would be like the Brown-Warren MA Senate race in 2012. Jones could lose in a non-landslide.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How long can the republicans not make plays to minorities before they can't win? on: November 11, 2017, 10:09:51 pm
What happened to politics based off on ideas? Are future voters going to do a DNA test to see what party they should vote for? What about whats good for the country? What about patriotism? God Im old.

The GOP panders to racists and bigots. That is bad for our country and contradicts our values.

That's not a "DNA test." It's called being a decent person.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How long can the republicans not make plays to minorities before they can't win? on: November 11, 2017, 06:43:29 pm
This assumes that in, say, 2035, we will consider the same people to be "minorities" as now. That's a big assumption. In the past, groups "became" white. I don't see why this is not going to happen now.

True. Once miscegenation becomes even further mainstream, this country will be 95-100% white again. The GOP will be in good shape once that happens, but it may be a while.

You forget the way the American conception of race works.

If this were Latin America, you'd have a point, because there, the "white" part is seen as canceling out or "elevating" the other parts.

Whereas here, if a white person and a black person have a child, that child will inevitably be regarded as black. Same story for mixed-race "Eurasian" children.

With Latinos, it depends. Theoretically, if the child's father is white and they have a "white" surname as a result, and they have "passable" features, they won't regard themselves as nonwhite. But it's worth remembering that part of the reason this happens in Texas is that there are just so many Hispanic people to begin with. A half-Hispanic person in Boston or Pennsylvania is going to be perceived as a lot more "different" than they would in San Antonio.

I was being facetious, but yeah, I pretty much agree with you. However I would say that the one-drop-rule starts to get a bit tedious once a person is <25% black, because at that point it becomes hard to tell.

In theory, they could "pass" but in practice, they will likely have been raised in a black household/community and identify as black for that reason.

Plenty of African-Americans, if you subjected them to a DNA test, are probably more white than they are black, but that doesn't mean they are ever going to be treated that way by society or that they are interested in discarding their history and culture for sake of checking a box on a form.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Culturally liberal rural areas on: November 11, 2017, 06:35:23 pm
Some parts of the Driftless Area of western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota could fit this. They aren't SJW feminists but they generally aren't as dominated by gun culture or conservative Christianity (though they may be Catholic or Mainline Protestant) as other rural Midwestern areas.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Describe an Cuccinelli/E.W. Jackson 2013 --> Northam/Fairfax 2017 Voter? on: November 11, 2017, 06:30:06 pm
Someone who was in college and a member of College Republicans in 2013, and then graduated and became a Government Swamp Employee.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MA-Gov: Baker massively popular on: November 11, 2017, 06:29:17 pm
I don't think my family will actually support the governor this term, he's a little too liberal for our taste.

Massachusetts is a little too liberal for your taste. Maybe you'd be happier in a place like Kentucky or Idaho.
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