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November 21, 2017, 08:46:19 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who was President when your parents were born? on: October 13, 2017, 02:38:38 am
Wilhelm Pieck
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who was president when your oldest grandparent was born? on: October 13, 2017, 02:37:12 am
Paul von Hindenburg (May 1934)
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 07, 2017, 04:03:24 am
Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favourite failed SPD candidates for Chancellor? on: September 30, 2017, 06:20:06 am
I'd order them this way

(FF)
Rau
Lafontaine

(middle ground)
Vogel
Ollenhauer
Schulz
Scharping

(more negative then positive)
Steinmeier
Schumacher
Steinbrück
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 27, 2017, 12:26:57 pm
Cowardish merkelism as usual. Like the re-installation of Kauder as parliamentary group leader.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Germany: cabinet posts in a Jamaica coalition on: September 27, 2017, 11:46:21 am
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KGE holding the Gedöns office could be possible, or maybe the development office, but another Green would have to lose out to Frau Göring. (Cem and Toni are basically set.) Who do you think would take over from KGE and Toni as speakers of their faction?
KGE should actually be nowhere near any responsible position, in my opinion. I don't know weither Toni is set. He would be a good choice if they combine environment with traffic/infrastructure. I don't think he's anywhere near set. He was really sidelined in the campaign
If they combine environment with economy Robert Habeck would be my choice. And with Özdemir, KGE and Habeck you would need someone more to the left for something. There was a taz commentary today that suggested Trittin as parliamentary group chairman. I second this! ;-)
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 27, 2017, 05:35:08 am
Why is Saarland a Western stronghold for Die Linke?
It's a declining former coal and steel industrial area. And It's the home of Oskar Lafontaine and the state he has been prime minister of from 1985 to 1998.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 27, 2017, 05:18:30 am
Rumours go, that Petry has purchased the domain "dieblauen.de" several months ago. Which would be quite hillarious as "blau" does not only mean the colour but is also a colloquial term for beeing severely drunk.

As far as the coalition building is concerned Merkel has invited both FDP and Greens and the SPD.
CSU demanded talks to the CDU before any other talks and they still insist on their "refugee cap" to be part of any coalition agreement (that would actually let any coalition talks fail, obviously).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 27, 2017, 05:15:31 am
Quote
Given the possibility of overhang seats, I somewhat wonder why nobody ever tried that Italian trick of running two formally different parties for each vote, but I'm guessing the Constitutional Court and/or electorate wouldn't take too kindly to such shenanigans.
It would not really work nowadays, because if you win a district and are not affiliated with a party that gets proportional representation, the list votes of the district winner's voters are declared obsolete and won't influence the proportional representation.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Germany: cabinet posts in a Jamaica coalition on: September 27, 2017, 05:00:14 am
Von der Leyen will go to another of the big ministeries, like Labor & Welfare or Health. Were she can show her incompetence in mangaging complex processes and system once more. ;-)

Özedmir wants to be foreign minister, as it seems. And the FDP obviously does not want this ministery, so be it. KGE obviously wants a post, but I don't know which. It could be maybe Gedöns. "Helping poor children and old people" was one of her main themes in the last years, after being one of the strongest proponents of the Agenda 2010 and the Hartz reforms in the Green party...oh the irony.

I think the Greens will demand combining Environment with Economy or Infrastructure for themselves as transforming economy and mobility towards more ecology was their main campaign theme.

Integration will still be only a comissioner I think. CDU/CSU don't want that, KGE has no competence in that matter and the Greens want foreign and Greater Environment.

FDP will probably get Treasury and Justice, but I thought SLS had quit politics?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 26, 2017, 07:54:42 am
The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 25, 2017, 07:40:48 am
From the cool graphics section:

regional majorities for typical coalitions, pictured as landmasses and ocean

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-wo-eine-jamaika-koalition-eine-mehrheit-hat-und-wo-nicht-a-1168632.html

A more detailed model of voters migration

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-volksparteien-laufen-waehler-weg-afd-und-fdp-profitieren-a-1169611.html
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 25, 2017, 07:00:01 am
The parliamentary AfD group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag has split. 4 "moderate" MPs have left and want to form their own faction.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 25, 2017, 04:57:48 am
Jamaica would not have a majority without the CSU. Seehofer tries to push the price for this coalition up, but they won't split in the end. New elections could backfire badly if they really try this stunt. And the long-term ramifications would be absolutely unclear. I don't think it would desirable for the CSU to lose their status as the conservative Bavaria regionalist party.

The thing is, that pressure for SPD and Greens would be high in an Union split scenario to form some "government of stability". The irony is that CSU prefers to govern with SPD over governing with the greens, so they would like to rejoin a grand coalition, but this would not happen if they threaten to split, so this is not a wise move. The CDU leadership would have every right to say "just stay out, you left deliberately"
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 25, 2017, 03:13:36 am
By the way, shouldn't we have a new thread now?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 25, 2017, 02:57:53 am
No, the CSU is a seperate party and so the five per cent threshold would apply. But the exemtion, that you get proportionally represented if you win at least three direct seats would work in favour for them. So there is no chance in the forseeable future that the CSU is not in the Bundestag. And in the European Parliament election, there is no threshold anymore.

In 2005 WASG did not compete seperately, but WASG candidates ran on the "Linke.PDS" lists in east and west.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 25, 2017, 02:34:15 am
Lolwut

So she does probably think she has enough people on the board for her own faction. Or else it would not make to much sense.

I also noticed a very staatstragend tone in her comments yesterday, that was actually new, in my opinion.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 06:15:16 pm
Just curious, why the heck do they call it the "jamacia" coalition?
Because Schwampel sounds like some kind of giplets.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Germany: number of direct seats for the AfD on: September 24, 2017, 04:45:29 pm
What about Gauland's district Frankfurt (Oder) – Oder-Spree? Does he stand a chance?
lost 27.1 to 22

CDU won all districts in Brandenburg except Potsdam that went to the SPD
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 04:43:33 pm
Quote
Dresden = right-wing
Leipzig = left-wing
It's not THAT easy. There is a left-wing majority in the Dresden city parliament, for instance. But Dresden has always been more the city of the kings of Saxony, their nobles and servants. And it's part of the "valley of the clueless" that had no access to western television by geography.
Leipzig has always been more a center of commerce, trade, fabrication, science, the important trade fairs, and so it always some cosmopolitan streak and had not totally lost that until 1989.

Of course it was also hit by the stagnation and decay of the GDR and by the shock therapy afterwards.

Chemnitz is in essence just a hard hit big industrial town.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 04:21:50 pm
http://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/bundestagswahlen/bundestagswahl-2017/wahlergebnis/#wk-2

Die Linke seems to win Leipzig II. And Leipzig is different to Dresden and especially Chemnitz for many reasons.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 04:18:26 pm
Quote

Really? but 408 out of 424 municipalities in it is AfD 29.5 vs CDU 28.3.  Are you saying that the remaining 16 municipalities are pretty much Leipzig and Dresden where AdD will get crushed by CDU ?

I would not call it crushed, but it's a small but significant lead in Leipzig, which is a seventh of the population, so I think it will be enough. And in some other that are not counted yet, AfD should also slightly underperform.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Germany: number of direct seats for the AfD on: September 24, 2017, 04:11:51 pm
156, 157 and 158 (Petry) all go to the AfD.
Dresden II-Bautzen II is possible, but the numbers are confusing because it's not clear weither the results on dresden.de include the adjacent suburbs (totally went under my radar).
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 04:06:46 pm
CDU has about 25000 votes more than AfD in Leipzig, and 2000 (sic) in Dresden. Should be enough for a narrow CDU "victory".

Actually the most right wing CDU state party lost the most, and the CSU lost bigly to the AfD. I don't think, that's a coincidence.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread on: September 24, 2017, 03:34:13 pm
Quote
You got Bavaria? I want to see what that hyper turnout in Munich is pointing towards.
The Bavarian state site is pointless, because it has not more information than the Bundeswahlleiter.

München is here

https://wahlen-muenchen.de/ergebnisse/20170924bundestagswahl/
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