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October 21, 2017, 10:57:54 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 New Brunswick election on: Today at 08:03:30 am
If he calls an election, expect an NDP government Wink

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

winking face = not serious
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 New Brunswick election on: October 20, 2017, 11:20:36 pm
If he calls an election, expect an NDP government Wink
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 19, 2017, 07:30:19 am
What about Glenmore-Elbow for Ward 11?

Coming up with a name for Ward 7 was the hardest one, so I just went with the federal riding name.

Calgary is quite strange it that it has such small neighbourhoods and seldomly has distinct names for neighbourhood clusters. It makes for coming up with names rather difficult.

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 03:15:23 pm
I see Calgary is like Halifax where city council has larger districts than the legislative assembly Tongue

Winnipeg, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon are all like that too. It is quite unfortunate.

It's common in your end too, I believe Saint John, Moncton and St. John's all have fewer wards than provincial ridings.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 01:10:36 pm
Hey njall, what do you think of these names I've given to Calgary's ward?

6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 12:47:13 pm
Final results:

Nenshi - 199,122 (51.4%)
Smith - 169,367 (43.7%)
Chabot - 11,945 (3.1%)
Other - 6,872 (1.8%)

Turnout: 58.1% Shocked

That's a new record turnout if I'm not mistaken. 

Highest since the 1930s I think.

7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 11:12:05 am
When it comes to insufferable pollsters, the one who takes the cake has to be John Wright at Ipsos during the 2014 Ontario election campaign. Their polls kept showing the PCs way ahead in contrast to everyone else and they were totally arrogant and condescending about how they HAD to be correct and everyone else was wrong...then the votes were counted and he whimpered away like a dog with its tail between its legs! 

Oh yeah, that election proved how unreliable opt-in online panels are.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 09:33:14 am
The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

That is sooo true. Remember Forum Research when they confidently predicted that the Liberal would win Brandon-Souris by 30 points???

I don't remember them being quite so awful as Quito Maggi has been. And he is being quite insufferable today on Twitter. I mean, if it was me and I saw how strange our age breaks were, I would tread very lightly about our numbers, as deep down I would have no confidence in them.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 08:48:11 am
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 08:29:45 am
The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 07:35:35 am
Some of those conservative councillors who were supposed to win in landslides in the north end, ended up winning by smaller than expected margins, probably due to the higher turnout. However, conservatives still have almost all the council seats. The three progressive councillors were re-elected.

Here are the Edmonton results:

Iveson - 141,182 (72.5%)
Koaziak - 13,204 (6.8%)
Others - 40,440 (20.8%)

Turnout: 31.5%

On Edmonton City council, NDPer Aaron Paquette won Ward 4 Smiley
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 07:03:35 am
Final results:

Nenshi - 199,122 (51.4%)
Smith - 169,367 (43.7%)
Chabot - 11,945 (3.1%)
Other - 6,872 (1.8%)

Turnout: 58.1% Shocked
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 06:12:58 am
Wow - Nenshi lost just two wards (13 & 14 in the southwest corner of the city - Harper country).
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 17, 2017, 12:07:08 am
I'm happy it was a short night.

wut
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 16, 2017, 11:54:57 pm
Wow, CTV calling with just 32% of polls reporting? Weird.

And also lol @ Mainstreet
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 16, 2017, 10:54:25 pm
Wow! Rod Frank (the 2015 Liberal candidate) won the mayoral race in Strathcona County!
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 16, 2017, 03:39:18 pm
Here's my profile of the main races: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/10/2017-alberta-municipal-elections-today.html
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 09:38:12 am
Early exit polls have emerged:



this meme needs to diaf
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario 2018 election on: October 15, 2017, 09:05:52 am
Just a rumour of course, told to me by 1 person 10 years ago... It shocked my sensibilities at the time, but one does hear a lot of rumours in this town, and who knows how many of them are true.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Vancouver City Council: Oct 14) on: October 15, 2017, 12:29:17 am
Bad night for both the main parties.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Vancouver City Council: Oct 14) on: October 15, 2017, 12:11:52 am
Talk about a massive vote split. NPA candidate wins with 28% of the vote. All the other major candidates are on the left, if you count the Greens as being on the left.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario 2018 election on: October 13, 2017, 08:09:17 pm
I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

This would not surprise me, based on rumours I heard about his office from when he was an MP. Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 13, 2017, 08:05:59 pm
Battle of the pollsters!

Calgary has more people than provinces half of the provinces. There should not be a huge discrepancy in polling. But then again municipal election polling hasn't really been perfected.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017 on: October 13, 2017, 08:39:52 am
New Mainstreet poll:

Smith - 52%
Nenshi - 39%
Chabot - 6%

(undecideds removed). Still weird youth numbers, but Nenshi leads in the 35-49 cohort at least.

And they polled the Edmonton race too, for some reason:

Iveson - 46%
Koziak - 7%
Undecided - 35%
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Vancouver City Council: Oct 14) on: October 12, 2017, 09:25:51 am
Steve Kent (MHA for Mount Pearl North) has resigned. One of the few PC held seats in the province, so should be an easy hold for the Tories.
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