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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan Oct 22 2017 on: October 12, 2017, 05:53:40 pm
Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

Well for her to be PM she will have to be a MP either in the Upper or Lower House.  So in the unlikely event HP plus a bunch of parties including KP and/or some LDP splinter, for Koike to become PM she has to run in a by-election to get in.  Worse, even if a HP MP resigns for Koike to get elected the delay between a MP resigning and by-election might be months leaving politics in a limbo.

I'm curious how many Koike supporters are aware of this and how this affects their voting intentions...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan Oct 22 2017 on: October 12, 2017, 05:52:50 pm
running through three PMs in as many years

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan Oct 22 2017 on: October 12, 2017, 03:50:44 pm
Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan Oct 22 2017 on: October 10, 2017, 01:21:01 pm
LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new) 
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

DP means ex-DP independents?
5  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Were the events of 1989/1991 good to the mankind? on: July 11, 2017, 12:14:52 am
Putin is also better then nearly all the Soviet leaders(Gorby's the exception ).  

But if the Soviet Union didn't break up in 1991, it would be Gorby who would probably stay in power for another 5 years or so, and then maybe he will be able to hand over his position to a like-minded successor.

How do you propose this ever be accomplished, though? The USSR was doomed just as much by its multinational nature as its economy. Once restrictions on free speech and national expression were torn down, the multitude of ethnic issues that the Union had attempted to paper over came to the fore.

The question wasn't about whether this was possible or not.

But, if we are speaking about the possibility to preserve the non-Communist USSR: it depended on many factors, of which one of the most significant, and typically underestimated, was Soviet administrative division structure (it was probably too late to change this by 1991 and even by 1985, though). It's not a coincidence that the USSR broke up precisely along the administrative borders drawn by the Soviet leadership, which in many cases were very different from ethnic borders. It's also not a coincidence that another 2 multi-ethnic "federations" modeled after the USSR (Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia) also broke up, and also precisely along the pre-existing subnational borders (and in Yugoslavia these borders were also very different from actual ethnic borders). At the same time, multi-ethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina managed to survive, despite less than half of it's population were Bosniaks, despite the conflict there was far more severe than most of the Soviet ethnic conflicts and despite separatists received support from adjacent countries larger and more powerful than it. In Africa, you can see ethnic tensions in almost any country, but 2 out of the 3 most successful secessionist movements, Eritrea and Somaliland, formed along the former colonial, rather than ethnic, borders. And in Latin America most of the new post-colonial nations were created on a basis of the former colonial viceroyalties.

We can't say for sure how much chances to survive the Soviet Union had. We can say for sure, though, that being multi-ethnic, and even having severe ethnic tensions, doesn't yet mean that the country is doomed.
6  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Were the events of 1989/1991 good to the mankind? on: July 09, 2017, 03:13:08 pm
Putin is also better then nearly all the Soviet leaders(Gorby's the exception ).  

But if the Soviet Union didn't break up in 1991, it would be Gorby who would probably stay in power for another 5 years or so, and then maybe he will be able to hand over his position to a like-minded successor.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Genders on: July 08, 2017, 03:40:31 pm
I'm just curious, for the ones who said more than 2, what are these other genders called? Who are some examples of people? And how does one achieve gender fluidity?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_gender
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls world opinion of Trump and other world leaders on: June 28, 2017, 02:07:42 pm
I suspect Xi has only 4% approvals here because most of the people have no clue who he is.

I think most of the people in all these African countries have no clue who he is either. Maybe people in Poland dislike Xi because he's viewed as Putin ally?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2017: Revenge of the Renzi on: June 27, 2017, 07:43:20 am
And what about MDP? Did they go along with PD in this election ?

In Wikipedia they are listed as a part of the centre-left coalition.

I don't know about Campo Progressista, did they run in this elections at all?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Albanian elections June 25th on: June 26, 2017, 08:17:48 pm
How important are ideological differences between parties, by the way? And are there any differences between PS and LSI (aside from the fact that they are led by different persons)?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Albanian elections June 25th on: June 25, 2017, 12:03:11 pm
In 2013 turnout was 53.5 %, so 35.6 % turnout is shockingly low, but maybe it isn't a final number?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 25, 2017, 11:57:34 am
Apparently Falorni (DVG) has said that they have around 20 deputies now: Valls, the PRG, others DVG and apparently some right-wing Radicaux.

So, no PS defectors aside from Valls and maybe some others who already left PS before the elections? This is somewhat surprising given that a large part of LR joined LRCUDI.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 22, 2017, 12:51:04 pm
Why can't Melenchon play nice with the Communists?
To be fair, the question can also exactly be asked in reverse.

Also, it's better they have two groups, that's twice the number of assisting positions, and they would have perpetually fought and eventually split rather sooner than later. And anyway, a 27-member group can't do much more than two 16-member and 15-member groups... They don't even have half a motion of no-confidence (58 seats needed) between them !

You know, at some point the left is going to have to form some semblance of unity if it is to ever have power again
That unity is going to come from the street, not from the National Assembly. Key question is if they can build NuitDebout into a larger movement, not whether their groups merge or not.

That still requires there to be a political force capable of capitalizing on a social movement like this. The PS doesn't seem like it can, while FI will always remain Mélenchon's personal vehicle.

And the problem with PCF, I guess, is that it still explicitly identifies as communist and/or is perceived by many as a relic of the past.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Macedonia considering renaming itself to end Greek opposition to it joining NATO on: June 13, 2017, 07:38:39 pm
No FRYOM should be partitioned between Bulgaria and Albania.

Macedonian Slavs are not Bulgarian.

And Moldovans are not Romanian.

That isn't a relevant comparison. Ukrainians aren't Russians or Norwegians aren't Swedes would be more like it.

What, if anything it's the opposite with Russia trying to assimilate Ukraine, while in the cases of Macedonia and Moldova regional dialectics were exaggerated to the point that people thought they were a seperate ethnic group.


There is no strict border between a language and a dialect, and there are several different definitions of "language" and "dialect", and a lot depends on politics and self-identification of language/dialect speakers. Ukrainian was recognized as a dialect 100 years ago in Britannica and other encyclopedias of that time. Sicilian, Sardinian and other languages of Italy were also regarded as dialects then, but now are officially recognized as languages. And what we usually call dialects of Arabic or Chinese are even more different from each other than Venetian from Sicilian.

But at least Ethnologue and other similar sites dedicated to catalogizing language recognize Macedonian as a language but don't recognize Moldovan. Curiously, though, their position coincides with official positions of Macedonian and Moldovan governments. And very likely their position on, say, Moroccan Arabic or Egyptian Arabic would be also very different if the respective nations promoted their varieties of Arabic as separate languages.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: French legislative election, 2017: Hypothetical IRV vote on: May 31, 2017, 08:39:36 am
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017

Me:
1. LREM
2. Misc. center
3. MoDem
4. LR/PS dissidents
5. UDI
6. PRG
7. EELV
8. LR
9. PS

Some of these would not be separate options that people would get to choose from, correct? MoDem is in alliance with En Marche, UDI with LR, and PRG with PS.

And LR/PS dissidents are in de facto alliance with LREM/MoDem.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 31, 2017, 07:35:07 am
in a part of the country with absolutely no left wing tradition
This could be one of the reasons why there are so many left-wing candidates: if any of them had a chance to win, it would make sense for some of the others to endorse him.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Afraid of becoming majority-muslim country, Russia plans to naturalize millions on: May 19, 2017, 08:12:25 pm
Ugh, Russia turning Muslim is an alarmist myth (maybe resource named "Islamophobia Watch" isn't the best source but they cite Forbes article; I would link this article directly if it wasn't deleted).
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Iranian Presidential election, 2017: HE'S (no longer) BAAAACK on: May 19, 2017, 01:33:38 pm

What do these ideological labels mean in the context of Iranian politics (aside conservatism and reformism), especially "clericalism"? Aren't they all Islamists to one or another extent? And isn't it better to describe Rouhani as a reformist, at least moderate?

All Iranian political parties are roughly divided into these two camps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Principlists

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Reformists

I know this :-). My question (which has been answered now) mostly was to which of these camps belong Raisi and Mir-Salim (whose ideologies were described as "clericalism" and "Islamism" respectively).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential Election 2018 on: May 19, 2017, 05:05:40 am
I know little about him, but isn't this Bolsonaro less a religious conservative (despite his party's name) and first and foremost a fan of military junta? Which means he doesn't have a close analogue in the US.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 18, 2017, 01:31:52 pm
PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Iranian Presidential election, 2017: HE'S (no longer) BAAAACK on: May 17, 2017, 04:07:31 pm
Candidate | Party | Ideology

Hassan Rouhani | Moderation and Development Party | Pragmatism
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | Progress and Justice Population of Iran | Conservatism
Ebrahim Raisi | Combatant Clergy Association | Clericalism
Eshaq Jahangiri | Executives of Construction Party | Reformism
Mostafa Mir-Salim | Islamic Coalition Party | Islamism
Mostafa Hashemitaba | Executives of Construction Party | Reformism

What do these ideological labels mean in the context of Iranian politics (aside conservatism and reformism), especially "clericalism"? Aren't they all Islamists to one or another extent? And isn't it better to describe Rouhani as a reformist, at least moderate?
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: India to surpass China in both population and economy... then what? on: May 16, 2017, 12:33:18 pm
By the way, Nigeria is projected to have roughly as many people as India and China by 2100, but such predictions, of course, are even less reliable. It's possible that by 2100 all or most of the nation states, including Nigeria and India, will die out.

The reason nobody talks about THAT is because the estimates are almost certainly wrong. Nigerian population estimates are based on census figures that are widely manipulated for political gain. While the population of Nigeria is large and growing, you can probably tack a few decades on to any estimate of their growth to make up for that.

Such discrepancies are not uncommon, especially in developing countries, although we can safely say that Nigeria already has more people than Russia or Japan, and it's population is one of the fastest-growing in the world. But anything depends on whether Nigeria's birth rate will decrease as slowly as in the recent decades or there will be a rapid decline in birth rate like the ones that happened in China in 70s or in Iran in 90s.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: India to surpass China in both population and economy... then what? on: May 15, 2017, 08:40:30 pm
In the 1980s, it was predicted Japan would surpass the US

Yes, but I'm very curious what was the basis for this prediction.

Quote
No one was raving about how great India's economy was in 1984.

Because it wasn't great, obviously. But it will be great if the predictions we are discussing will come true.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: India to surpass China in both population and economy... then what? on: May 15, 2017, 08:31:42 pm
India is bound to become the largest economy in the world if there won't be major breakthroughs in robotics and artificial intelligence - which is extremely unlikely. India will have a plenty of cheap labor force, sure, which would be a crucial advantage now, but depending on how well machines will be able to replace humans in the future, India's enormous population could become a liability rather than an asset. China, by the way, invests in robots heavily (and apparently sees them as a solution to it's forthcoming demographic problems), from what I know.

That doesn't mean India won't be the largest economy and the most important superpower. Demographics will still matter (it just will matter less than now), and population size isn't India's only advantage, and China and other possible contenders of India have their own problems. I just want to remind how drastically technologies change anything: say, if personal computer was invented 10 years earlier or 10 years later, we would live in a very different world. And since we don't know precisely, when and where major technological breakthroughs of the future will happen, we never can be sure in our projections and predictions.

But the main reason why people rarely speak about the "Indian century" is not what I said, but just that India keeps a low profile, doesn't attract much attention and has very little interest (yet?) in what happens outside of South Asia.

And I'm curious what "other prospective countries" did you mean?

By the way, Nigeria is projected to have roughly as many people as India and China by 2100, but such predictions, of course, are even less reliable. It's possible that by 2100 all or most of the nation states, including Nigeria and India, will die out.
25  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: The rise of the right in the mid-2010s on: May 15, 2017, 09:51:08 am
On the other hand, the left radicalizes: Corbyn became the leader of the Labour in the UK; Podemos took large part of former PSOE voters in Spain; FI/PG is about to overtake PS as the leading force of the left in France; Sanders showed surprising success in the Democratic primaries; and all or almost all of the aforementioned leftists are especially popular among youth. We'll see how it ends.
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