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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cass County, ND on: February 22, 2019, 11:37:00 pm
Likely R
Biden or Klobuchar are probaly the best kind of democrat for a such County

Yeah, they would be about the only two that have a shot.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Warren crash, like Christie did after 2012? on: January 02, 2019, 03:57:56 am
Dukakis, is more of Warren's kind of crash.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: MATTIS OUT! on: December 24, 2018, 02:34:06 am
Apparently Trump kicked Mattis out early (Jan 1st now) because Mattis was getting positive coverage on the media.   (IMO that's pathetic).

What is pathetic is that Trump had to have one of his lackeys break the news to Mattis. The man made famous for firing people, is afraid to face Mad dog.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Crisis in Florida on: November 09, 2018, 11:26:00 pm
The dumpster fire in Broward County continues...

Quote
Broward’s elections supervisor accidentally mixed more than a dozen rejected ballots with nearly 200 valid ones, a circumstance that is unlikely to help Brenda Snipes push back against Republican allegations of incompetence.

The mistake — for which no one had a solution Friday night — was discovered after Snipes agreed to present 205 provisional ballots to the Broward County canvassing board for inspection. She had initially intended to handle the ballots administratively, but agreed to present them to the canvassing board after Republican attorneys objected

http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article221452655.html?__twitter_impression=true
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 09, 2018, 01:05:21 pm
No Republican should have any compliants about AZ, what is happening there is completely above board.

Broward county though is a complete dumpster fire of a lack of transperancy, that has to be the most incompetently run county in the country. Palm Beach also having some issues, elections shouldn't have to be this difficult to carry out. I don't think there is fraud going on, just complete and total incompetence.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 08, 2018, 10:55:41 pm
I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on?

The votes are being counted, and Republicans are complaining because they oppose democracy.

It may sound harsh, but it's true.

There are some legit compliants, the Broward county election supervisor is legitmatelly incompetent and is struggling to answer simple questions. I'm not saying anything shady is happening but it isn't  a good look, this needs to be her last election.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 10:56:51 pm
Did only 600K really vote in Maricopa?!


Election day votes still need to be counted.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 09:25:32 pm
CNN exit poll has Cramer +9.

That might be optimistic for Heidi.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 06, 2018, 08:50:00 pm
First votes in from ND. RIP Heitkamp

She is getting crushed in two rural counties she lost by 6 and 8 points in 2012...Yeah it is going to get ugly.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are on: October 22, 2018, 10:41:20 pm
I'm surprised that the tariff hit to farmers hasn't helped Heitkamp more. The only way those tariffs will get reversed is with a Congress that is actually willing to disagree with Trump on policy instead of being afraid of disagreeing.

Tariffs are really a longer term thing, the longer they last the more they trickle down and it could be devastating for rural ND. Rural ND is driven by agriculture, oil puts a lot of money into the state's coffers but it's direct impact is in a much smaller area of the state.

Cramer is kind of lucky with the timing of it all, if this had happened earlier it would be a bigger issue.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: There's one simple reason Cramer is favored. on: October 22, 2018, 01:38:12 pm
It's because Heitkamp voted No on Kavanaugh.

She voted no on Kavanaugh because she knew she was toast and wanted to go out her way.

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is Heitkamp so vulnerable... on: October 12, 2018, 12:27:33 pm
Cramer was always a big threat, he has spent a lot of his time building up his presence with energy interests. He also took a gamble and jumped headfirst onto the Trump train early, which is paying off for him.

Heidi ran close to a perfect campaign against Berg and barely beat him...she was always going to be vulnerable. ND is a weird state, the east is much more moderate while the west is like Wyoming. I also think in the past, especially when Dorgan and Conrad were winning races older voters were more moderate, especially in rural areas. Those people are dying off and being replaced by more conservative voters.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Heitkamp Really DOA In The Election This Time? 2018 GE Edition on: October 05, 2018, 11:07:04 pm
She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.

Thoughts on the margin?


I don't quite buy the double digit leads but Cramer is on very solid ground..probably up 5-6%.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Heitkamp Really DOA In The Election This Time? 2018 GE Edition on: October 05, 2018, 01:09:23 pm
She is done unless Cramer makes a huge mistake. TV buys aren't going to change anything and I don't think she can really do anything either.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ND-SEN: Cramer vs. Heitkamp on: October 04, 2018, 03:50:06 pm
The plan appears to be that she will vote against Kavanaugh, and run a bunch of anti-Kavanaugh ads statewide to make that the popular position.

There isn't enough money in the world that is going to make that a popular position in ND. Looks like Heidi wants to go out her way, which is respectable.
16  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) on: October 03, 2018, 08:43:45 pm
Heidi landed some real blows against Berg in 2012, not really the case this time around with Cramer so far and his gaffes have been way beyond anything Berg said or did. Kind of just a reflection of how much more red and partisan the state has become.

That said this seems a bit optimistic for Cramer,  the race is probably closer to a 5-6% lead for Cramer and it is trending toward him.
17  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) on: October 03, 2018, 06:49:05 pm
If she votes against Kavanaugh, it will help her.

If she votes against Kavanaugh this poll will be a reflection of election night.  


18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Kavanaugh so unpopular? on: September 04, 2018, 08:09:15 pm
I wouldn't call him unpopular, he is polarizing but this thing has become so heavily politicized that it is what it is at this point.

Perhaps the Dems should have let Gorsuch happen, saved their chips for this fight. Kavanaugh probably still gets rammed through but the GOP would have looked worse for doing so.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will be Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)'s legacy? on: August 24, 2018, 08:58:22 pm
The last true statesman.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fallout from Trump tariffs on: July 24, 2018, 07:05:14 pm
I am beyond livid. If the farmers I know start complaining about "welfare" any time soon, I'll ask them about the stuff they're getting. Ugh.

Guessing they'll just be happy not to be broke, I have family in ND that farms and they were about to take a beating from Trump's moronic tariffs.

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Heidi Heitkamp win reelection? on: July 19, 2018, 10:28:24 pm
She would lose if the election was held today, she has a tougher opponent in Cramer if she does win it will be by a razor thin margin.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fox News staffers embarrassed by their own network's Mueller/Russia coverage on: November 01, 2017, 07:34:02 pm
They hackery at Fox is ridiculous and it goes beyond Russia... Tonight they were tweeting blatant lies about Jake Tapper.

Img


https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/925881770385526784
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN is announcing first charges by Mueller. Who is he trying to go after? on: October 30, 2017, 09:54:34 pm
Bannon wants Trump to start throwing some punches...

Quote
Renato Mariotti‏Verified account
@renato_mariotti
Follow Follow @renato_mariotti
More
1/ While I was on @CNNTonight just now, @DanaBashCNN reported that Bannon is telling Trump to get Congress to cut Mueller’s funding.

https://twitter.com/renato_mariotti/status/925189689811841025
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN is announcing first charges by Mueller. Who is he trying to go after? on: October 30, 2017, 05:58:38 pm
Manafort just leaves evidence laying around...Don really does hire the best people...

Quote
When FBI agents picked lock on Manafort's house, they found Ukrainian lobbying records he had told DOJ didn't exist

https://twitter.com/Isikoff/status/925107307750584320
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WH Soc. Media boss Dan Scavino asks for FF Justin Amash's primary ouster on: April 01, 2017, 06:30:22 pm
This Scavino guy pretty much blocks anyone on twitter that says anything negative in regards to Donald. Not shocked he went after one of the people in the GOP who has been very critical of Don.
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