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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2020 Senate Elections on: December 17, 2017, 08:34:35 am
2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

If Dems are gaining Tennessee and Texas, they are almost certainly not "easily" losing WV and MO to Republicans.
In my opinion, Claire McCaskill faces an uphill battle for re-election in a state that President Trump is still popular in and is already between 3-16 points behind in the polls. I also think that Joe Manchin might switch over to the Republican Party, considering that he voted in favor of most of President Trump’s Congressional agenda. Joe Manchin is also a bit of an odd man out in the Democratic Party, as he is strongly pro-life and pro-gun rights, is opposed to gay marriage, and is conservative on energy policy.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrat wave election? on: December 16, 2017, 06:55:14 pm
I would say that the Democrats will gain anywhere between 25 and 75 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2020 Senate Elections on: December 16, 2017, 06:52:12 pm
2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.
104  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ten years from today, who will be...? on: December 10, 2017, 01:38:55 pm
United States: Kamala Harris (defeats Donald Trump in 2020 and Tom Cotton in 2024 by landslide margins)
United Kingdom: Jeremy Corbyn
Canada: Justin Trudeau
Australia: Tanya Plibersek
Germany: Sigmar Gabriel
France: Édouard Philippe
India: Narendra Modi
Israel: Nir Barkat
China: Li Yuanchao
Russia: Dmitry Medvedev
Iran: Mohammed Javad Zarif
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1964: Nelson Rockefeller instead of Barry Goldwater on: November 25, 2017, 07:11:15 pm


President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 448 EV (56%)
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Former Governor Cecil Underwood (R-WV): 73 EV (36%)
John Kasper (National States Rights-NY)/J.B. Stoner (National States Rights-GA): 17 EV (7%)
Others: 0 EV (1%)

Nelso Rockefeller does a bit better than Barry Goldwater by holding onto Vermont, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, and Nebraska, but performs incredibly poorly in the Deep South. The presence of Cecil Underwood on the Republican ticket also makes West Virginia quite a bit closer, but President Johnson ends up carrying it by a 55-43 margin.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Control of the Senate if Trump resigns on: November 16, 2017, 04:05:38 pm
It's definitely worth mentioning that in this scenario, the Speaker of the House is second-in-line. So if Democrats control the House, Pelosi or whoever is in line to take over if something happens to Pence, and the media (both mainstream and right-wing) would go crazy any time there's a minor health scare.

My question is, why would the Democrats vote for a VP nominee that would upset the partisan balance of the Senate?

I don't think Congressional Democrats would want to be blamed for denying confirmation of any VP; it could look bad for 2020. Also, red state Dems like Manchin and Donnelly would probably feel a lot of heat. On the other hand, I could see Democrats demanding another candidate if Pence nominated someone pretty far to the right.

Also, any guesses on who Pence would nominate in this situation?
Either Nikki Haley or Mitt Romney if I had to guess.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Cory Booker beat Donald Trump on: October 15, 2017, 07:13:33 am


Booker: 358
Trump: 180
Seems about right, though I would switch out Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 with Texas and Georgia and give Trump 70% of the vote in West Virginia and Oklahoma and 60% of the vote in Tennessee, Indiana, Montana, and Missouri.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2012 Election: Ron Paul (R) vs. Barack Obama (D) on: August 20, 2017, 11:28:39 am


President Barack Obama(D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden(D-DE):  348 EVs
Representative Ron Paul(R-TX)/Fmr. House Speaker Newt Gingrich(R-GA):  190 EVs

Ron is too far out there for the electorate to have had a shot at all, sadly.
Seems about right, though I would probably flip New Hampshire and Maine to Ron Paul and Arizona and Georgia to Obama.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1972: Richard Nixon vs. Robert F. Kennedy on: August 12, 2017, 08:58:39 pm
He would have done way better than McGovern, but I doubt that anyone could have beaten Nixon in 1972 under the real life conditions. RFK might have picked Carter for VP, though that doesn't make him competative in the south. I gave him GA in the scenario, but I'm even doubtful about that.



✓ President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Vice President Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 405 EVs.; 55.4%
Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 133 EVs.; 43.6%

Seems about right, though I would also flip Wisconsin, Oregon, and Connecticut to Kennedy.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Current 2018 Senate Predictions? on: July 26, 2017, 06:31:37 am
I have the Democrats gaining Nevada, Arizona, and Texas and the Republicans winning Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a Muslim that voted for trump. on: July 25, 2017, 12:54:51 pm
Reza Pahlavi likely voted for Trump due to the fact that Trump is a supporter of regime change in Iran.
112  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs North Korea on: July 02, 2017, 04:43:27 pm
Maybe I was wrong in saying that North Korea had a better human rights record than Iran during the 1970s, but the Shah of Iran was still a bloodthirsty puppet dictator who slaughtered his people in high numbers, stole resources that solely belonged to the Iranian people, and only cared for himself at the expense of everyone else.
yet they still had better human rights record than today, and yet...
Quote
Say what you like about Iran under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, but at least today the Iranian government doesn't go on mass killings without provocation,
Right, now they only murder gays, Jews and anybody that protests....but hey, they were provoked, so it's ok.
Quote
allows for some level of political freedom, looks out for the poor and vulnerable members of society, and, most importantly, is not a puppet of nations hostile to its interests such as Israel, the US, and the U.K.
the fact that you think THAT is the most important is very telling.
Quote
The Iranian government today is also at the forefront of standing up for the rights of oppressed groups in the Middle East such as Shi'a Muslims and the Palestinian people.
awesome..and really, they are pretty typical in their horribleness in the region.  A little better than Syria or S.Arabia...a little worse than Iraq or Oman.

Don't get me wrong, the Shah sucked and we were wrong to back him...but he wasn't as bad as bearded clerics running the place since.
Nearly all of the information regarding Iran in the media is little more than propaganda that is meant to encourage the American people to support an unjust and imperialist war against Iran. The Iranian government has not killed innocent people since the late 1980s, is respectful and tolerant towards other religions, and is arguably one of the only functioning democracies in the Middle East. I am also strongly anti-Zionist, anti-Saudi, and pro-Shi'a, so I agree with nearly all of the positions that the Iranian government takes.
113  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs North Korea on: June 28, 2017, 06:37:55 am
... and how exactly was North Korea under Kim Il Sung better?
Iran ranked lower in terms of human rights and political freedom when compared to North Korea in Freedom House rankings from the 1970s. Iran at the time actually had the lowest level of freedom in the world and
That's not how I'm reading it
link to spread sheet with the deets
yr-Political Rights/Civil Liberties (lower is better)
Iran
72-5/6 (same as Spain! Yeah Franco!)
73-5/6
74-6/6
75-6/6
76-6/5
77-5/5
78-5/5

The Norks had solid 7s in that time frame.  But maybe I'm reading it wrong?  They  certainly were not the worst in the world.
Quote
the situation was so dire in the country that authoritarian countries such as the Soviet Union, Cuba, and North Korea expressed concern for the human rights situation in Iran before international bodies such as the UN.
in the same way the UN claims Israel is the worst human rights abuser.  It's very common for horrible countries to point their fingers at others.  Like people who cheat always assume everybody else, especially their significant other, is too. 

FYI, Cuba was rockin' 7s, just like the Norks were, and the Soviets were almost as free as Iran with 6s.
Maybe I was wrong in saying that North Korea had a better human rights record than Iran during the 1970s, but the Shah of Iran was still a bloodthirsty puppet dictator who slaughtered his people in high numbers, stole resources that solely belonged to the Iranian people, and only cared for himself at the expense of everyone else. Say what you like about Iran under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, but at least today the Iranian government doesn't go on mass killings without provocation, allows for some level of political freedom, looks out for the poor and vulnerable members of society, and, most importantly, is not a puppet of nations hostile to its interests such as Israel, the US, and the U.K.  The Iranian government today is also at the forefront of standing up for the rights of oppressed groups in the Middle East such as Shi'a Muslims and the Palestinian people.
114  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs North Korea on: June 27, 2017, 08:56:05 pm
... and how exactly was North Korea under Kim Il Sung better?
Iran ranked lower in terms of human rights and political freedom when compared to North Korea in Freedom House rankings from the 1970s. Iran at the time actually had the lowest level of freedom in the world and the situation was so dire in the country that authoritarian countries such as the Soviet Union, Cuba, and North Korea expressed concern for the human rights situation in Iran before international bodies such as the UN.
115  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs North Korea on: June 27, 2017, 08:38:03 pm
Easily Iran. Had I been alive between 1953 and 1978 however, I would have picked North Korea, as living in Iran under the Shah was akin to hell on Earth.
google "Iran in the 70s" and please come back with your thoughts

(I'm not arguing it was heaven on Earth either, just so we're clear)
I am close friends with a 25 year old Iranian American woman (hopefilully more than friends in the near future if I play my cards right) whose parents lived in Iran until the early 1980s. My friends mother was active in the anti-Shah student movement at Tehran University (though she is not that religious at all) and described to me the crimes that the Shah committed against the Iranian people from the early 1950s until the late 1970s. Organizations such as SAVAK controlled nearly every aspect of Iranian society and ruthlessly dealt with any dissent. Freedom of speech, press freedom, and political freedom were non-existent and Iran had around 100,000 political prisoners by 1976. Additionally, security forces loyal to the Shah routinely fired upon innocent civilians who were unconnected to political activities. I am not saying that Iran is a perfect place today, but it is apparent that the political situation in Iran has improved overall since the 1978-79 Revolution.
116  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs North Korea on: June 27, 2017, 08:14:57 pm
Easily Iran. Had I been alive between 1953 and 1978 however, I would have picked North Korea, as living in Iran under the Shah was akin to hell on Earth.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Independent Kasich campaign? on: June 26, 2017, 03:38:35 pm

262: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg - 40.6%
235: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 37.0%
41: John Kasich/Jim Matheson - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%
Seems about right, though I would probably give Kamala Harris Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, and maybe even New Hampshire.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mock Presidential Election 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 12:48:41 pm
My man Bernie!
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kanye West 2020? on: June 23, 2017, 03:41:27 pm
No way. Trump is different. He has experience and is actually serious. Kanye is not serious and would not be popular among Conservative and White voters. I will actually puke if Kanye wins at least 350,000 votes.
Kanye would still easily win California, Washington, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, Maryland, Delaware, DC and possibly Oregon, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arizona if he plays his cards right.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kanye West 2020? on: June 23, 2017, 11:35:11 am
I agree that Kanye does better than this, but there is no chance that he will win regardless of how vile and corrupt Trump is.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would it take for a Republican to win ME & VT, but lose MO, KY, WV& AR on: June 22, 2017, 11:41:05 am
Charlie Baker/Phil Scott vs. Jim Justice/Jim Webb?
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is the most 'generic D' candidate? on: June 21, 2017, 12:31:47 pm
Cory Booker
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton v Trump on: June 19, 2017, 12:58:41 pm
Sanders in the primary, Johnson in the general (might have voted for Clinton with hindsight).
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sanders blasts Saudi for spreading radicalism & wants relationship re-evaluated on: June 13, 2017, 02:02:22 pm
I wholeheartedly agree with Sanders on this point. The Saudi government arguably has one of the worlds worst human rights records, as they do not allow much political freedom, routinely execute and torture people who violate Islamic law, and have in place policies that discriminate against religious minorities such as Shi'a Muslims. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has been a strong promoter of Wahabbism (an extremist form of Islam that considers all non-Muslims to be heretics who deserve death) and covertly supports numerous violent extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS. The US definitely needs to reconsider its relationship with Saudi Arabia.
125  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Russian election hacking hit 39 states, attacked voter data on: June 13, 2017, 01:52:03 pm
Russia literally committed an act of war against us, and Trump voters think we're all only complaining because we're butt hurt Hillary lost.

This has nothing to do with Democrat vs. Republican, and anyone who cannot see that is a moron.

Putting party before country, the way the GOP and many Trump voters are doing, is treasonous.
Time to invade Russia to remove Putin from power then! The US will totally win a war against Russia and not have any collateral damage from it (lol).

     A big part of the reason Russia is so aggressive with us is that they know we would have to be utter morons to actually fight them. What we are doing now with sanctions and diplomatic pressure is about the limit of what we realistically can do with Russia.
I agree. Launching a war against Russia will open up a huge can of worms to say the least. Expanding sanctions that are already in place and placing a travel ban on Putin and anyone connected to his government are probably the only actions the US can take right now.
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