Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 13, 2017, 06:09:02 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 96 [97] 98
2401  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Santorum on: January 06, 2013, 12:12:20 pm
I think that Clinton would win in such a scenario, but I think that her victory margin would be closer to Obama's in 2008. From what I can tell, Rick Santorum's message of extreme social conservatism and his hardline foreign policy views are extremely popular in the South and parts of the Midwest. Santorum's popularity in those areas would increase even further if he picks someone such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry as his running mate. I don't even think Hillary Clinton would even carry her home state of Arkansas in such a scenario and Rick Santorum might even carry Ohio.

Here is what the map would look like:

Clinton/Schweitzer: 353 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee (Or Rick Perry): 185 Electoral Votes

For benefit of the doubt Ill give you the possibility of Santorum holding onto more southern states here then I think he actually would. However Ohio, I just dont see. Santorum may have been a rust belt senator but I don't see him doing well enough in northern ohio to offset Clinton margins. Clinton was very popular in Ohio during the democratic party primary and Santorum actually lost Ohio to Romney while he was still a viable contender. Considering this was his home region I take that as a sign as to his overall electability. I actually think Clinton would do better in Ohio then Obama did against Romney. Simply put Clinton against Santorum would be imo a bloodbath of epic proportions but the best he could proably do is keep the south solid and Clinton in the 370 electoral range.

I may have over estimated Santorum's performance in this map, especially regarding the Southern states, but I was under the impression that he was actually pretty popular in industrial states such as Ohio and Michigan due to his faux-populist message regarding economics.
2402  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Santorum on: January 03, 2013, 11:39:19 am
I think that Clinton would win in such a scenario, but I think that her victory margin would be closer to Obama's in 2008. From what I can tell, Rick Santorum's message of extreme social conservatism and his hardline foreign policy views are extremely popular in the South and parts of the Midwest. Santorum's popularity in those areas would increase even further if he picks someone such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry as his running mate. I don't even think Hillary Clinton would even carry her home state of Arkansas in such a scenario and Rick Santorum might even carry Ohio.

Here is what the map would look like:

Clinton/Schweitzer: 353 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee (Or Rick Perry): 185 Electoral Votes
2403  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Westman, Part II: The Rising on: December 11, 2012, 04:24:35 pm
Great timeline series so far! I have two questions regarding the first part of the timeline that may seem a bit off topic at this point though. First, how did the U.S. get involved in the Persian War? Second, did the Republicans pick up Congress during the 1958 midterms due to the Recession of 1958 and how did President Estes Kefauver's last two years in office turn out if that happened?
2404  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Unemployment rate end of Obama 2nd term? on: November 12, 2012, 07:15:59 pm
I'd say unemployment would be anywhere between 5-7% under Obama's second term
2405  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) vs. Rick Santorum (R-PA) on: November 12, 2012, 07:04:53 pm
I think that Cuomo would win by a similar margin to Obama's in 2012. I believe Santorum would wipe the floor with Cuomo in the South and Midwest though. The electoral college map might look something like this:

Cuomo/Kaine: 334 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee: 204 Electoral Votes
2406  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: 1960: Nixon elected as President on: November 12, 2012, 03:24:40 pm
I am actually plotting out my own timeline were Nixon is elected in 1960, but I will not be ready to post it for at least several weeks. I have it drafted out until about 1984 or so, but it will likely continue until the present day.

Cool. As someone who's obsessed over that idea myself, I'm looking forward to it!
The idea of Nixon wining in 1960 is also an alternate history scenario that I enjoy as well! The point of divergence I am probably going to go with involves LBJ declining to serve as JFK's running mate.
2407  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Greatest Presidents that never were on: November 10, 2012, 06:08:05 pm
Democrats
William Jennings Bryan
James Cox
Al Smith
Adlai Stevenson (maybe)
Estes Kefauver
Wayne Morse
Eugene McCarthy
Robert Kennedy
Hubert Humphrey
George McGovern (maybe)
Edmund Muskie
Frank Church
Ted Kennedy (maybe)
Jerry Brown (maybe)
Paul Tsongas
Lloyd Bentsen
Paul Wellstone
Al Gore Jr.
Howard Dean

Republicans
Henry Cabot Lodge Sr.
Hiram Johnson
Charles Evans Hughes
Wendell Wilkie
Thomas Dewey
Robert Taft
Richard Nixon (1960 version)
Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (maybe)
Margaret Chase Smith
Jacob Javits
Barry Goldwater
Nelson Rockefeller
George Romney (maybe)
Mark Hatfield
Howard Baker
John Anderson
Bob Dole (maybe)
Jack Kemp (maybe)
Colin Powell
Ron Paul (maybe)
Jon Huntsman
2408  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: 1960: Nixon elected as President on: November 10, 2012, 05:52:54 pm
I am actually plotting out my own timeline were Nixon is elected in 1960, but I will not be ready to post it for at least several weeks. I have it drafted out until about 1984 or so, but it will likely continue until the present day.
2409  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Dewey Defeats Truman and Onward on: November 08, 2012, 04:05:05 pm
I think that Kefauver might have actually made a pretty decent president. It would have been interesting to see how he would have handled the civil rights issue though, as in RL, he voted in favor of the 1957 and 1960 Civil Rights acts and refused to sign the Southern Manifesto, thus earning the ire of many in the pro-segregation wing of the Democratic Party.
2410  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who are you voting for? on: November 05, 2012, 07:43:41 pm
I'm still not sure. I am not pleased with either Obama or Romney, so I may vote third party on election day.
2411  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who would you vote for in timelines? on: October 05, 2012, 05:15:58 pm
By a Fluke of the Gods: Cox Defeats Harding:
1920: Warren Harding
1924: Herbert Hoover
1928: Herbert Hoover
1932: Hiram Johnson
1936: Cordell Hull
1940: Douglas MacArthur
1944: Douglas MacArthur
1948: Styles Bridges
1952: Thomas Dewey
1956: Thomas Dewey
1960: Joe Kennedy Jr.
1964: Richard Nixon
1968: Richard Nixon
1972: John Ashbrook
1976: John Ashbrook
1980: Robert Kennedy
1984: Jack Kemp
1988: Jack Kemp
1992: Reginald Jackson
1996: Reginald Jackson
2000: Paul Wellstone
2004: Jim Webb
2008: Kay Bailey Hutchinson
2412  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Remembering the 1982 Congressional elections on: October 05, 2012, 04:49:46 pm
That would have been very interesting if that happened, as Bob Michel would have become Speaker and Trent Lott would have become House Majority Leader. If the Republicans won control of the House in 1982, how many years do you think they would they have held onto control of it?
2413  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Todd Akin: Doctors often preform abortions on women who aren't pregnant on: October 04, 2012, 04:14:08 pm
He is arguably the most idiotic and ill-informed Senate candidate I ever saw. He and Rick Santorum would have got along extremely well if he was in the Senate several years ago.
2414  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Did Obama surprised you? on: October 04, 2012, 04:09:13 pm
I was expecting Obama to smoke Romeny in the debate, but he came across as ill-pepared and weak.
2415  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 04, 2012, 04:07:28 pm
Romney perfromed somewhat better than Obama in the debate in my opinion.
2416  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, and Huntsman: Mitt Romney's downfall on: September 28, 2012, 12:12:29 pm
Did the Republicans get control of the Senate and keep the House in this TL?
2417  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1968 General Election (Kennedy vs. Rockefeller vs. Wallace) on: September 08, 2012, 09:01:29 pm
I probably would have voted for RFK, but I would not mind Rockefeller either. This in kind of off-topic, but I think that if RFK were elected in 1968 and re-elected in 1972, the Republicans would have probably took over the House and Senate in the 1974 midterm elections due to the mediocre economy of the mid 1970s and overall fatigue with 20 years of the Democrats controlling both branches of congress. In 1976, Ronald Reagan would have likely became President if RFK was elected in 1968 as well.
2418  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your top three for 2016 on: September 07, 2012, 04:39:05 pm
Republicans
1.Chris Christie
2.Marco Rubio
3.Jon Huntsman (assuming he decides not to switch to the Democratic Party by 2016)

Democrats
1.Brian Schweitzer
2.Elizabeth Warren
3.Hillary Clinton (assuming she decides to run)
2419  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Texas future in elections on: September 07, 2012, 04:34:55 pm
It is possible that Texas will go Democratic if Julian Castro ever runs for president due to the higher turnout among Hispanic voters, but as many people said on this thred in earlier posts, the Republicans are slowly beginning to court Hispanic voters in Texas that might have otherwise registered as Democrats.
2420  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Based on RNC speeches, who is running in 2016? on: September 02, 2012, 12:59:30 pm
I hope that Rick Santorum does not get the nomination beacuse I think his ideas and positions are dangerous and destructive to our country.

You're gonna LOVE Phil.

I will take this troubled child under my wing and lead him on the right path.
I actually agree with Rick Santorum on most economic issues and admire him for standing up to the principles he believes in 100%, but I think he is a tad bit too hardline on foreign poicy in my opinion and his positions on social policies are too extreme for my tastes.
2421  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1956: President Irving Ives vs. Senator Absalom Robertson on: August 31, 2012, 06:11:15 pm
The post about President Truman vs. Senator Taft in 1952 has inspired me to create a new topic which branches off of the old.

In this alternate realm the Republican team of Senators Robert Taft of Ohio and Irving Ives of New York defeat the Democratic administration of President Harry S Truman and Vice-President Alben W. Barkley. In his short term from January 20 to July 31, 1953, President Taft, the first son of a president to follow his father to the Executive Office since J.Q. Adams, withdraws American forces from Korea, begins the withdrawal of forces from Japan and calls on Congress to "reevaluate" America's presence in NATO. In terms of the domestic economy he appoints former President Herbert Hoover to evaluate where the government is overspending and to volunteer any New Deal programs that can be trimmed. To address fears that he will attack popular social safety net programs President Taft addresses the nation: "My administration has not interest in right-wing social engineering. Social security is a promise made to the elderly of our nation and the promise being made must be kept. Banking reforms are a promise to the people of America which seek to secure the money they trust in their local financial institution. The promise being made must also be kept."

President Taft also takes a hardline on investigating domestic communists by empowering Attorney General Herb Brownell to investigate any and all government agencies and organizations receiving government monies. He also gets the ball rolling on voter rights by issuing an executive order compelling all states to "forgo all laws aimed at impeding the power of the citizen to make his or her voice heard at the ballot box." President Taft also fights with liberal Republicans over their plans to increase federal funding for the arts and schools. His anger towards Senator Majority Leader Hugh Scott becomes so steamed he privately refers to the Keystone State legislator as, "a bonehead."

On July 31, 1953, the reactionary revolution of President Taft comes to a stunning and tragic end when he is found dead in his bed by the White House Chief Usher Howell Crimm. Vice-President Irving Ives is sworn in as the 35th President of the United States. After a month and a half mourning period for the late President Taft the new Irving Administration kicks into full gear. A liberal Republican, President Ives puts aside the conservative/non-interventionist ideology of President Taft and begins a new series of government plans he calls the New Federalism.

The New Federalism program calls for the government to intervene in state sponsored schools, art projects, infrastructure and scientific research. Senator Scott and other liberals applaud the new program, especially the fact that it favors the rights of labor and minorities. Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, elected in 1952 to his post as a Taft conservative promises that he will form a "conservative coalition" dedicated to stopping President Ives's program of New Federalism. Senator Goldwater emerges as the senate's vocal conservative on the Republican side of the aisle while Senator Absalom Willis Robertson of Virginia becomes the conservative face of senate Democrats.

The liberal and conservative sides come to blows many times from 1953 to 1956. They grapple over federal aid to education, highway building, funding for a new national space agency and the repeal of the Taft-Hartley Act. The liberals win most of these arguments with the notable exception of the failure to do away with Taft-Hartley. The biggest fight breaks out over the Civil Rights Act of 1955 which aims to integrate all public and private buildings across the nation. Conservatives cry foul declaring that the bill is an attack on private property rights. However, Senator Everett Dirksen of Illinois, a member of the conservative coalition, speaks out in favor of the bill fracturing opposition to the bill and ending Senator Robertson's three day filibuster of the bill. On April 14, 1955, President Ives signs the Civil Rights Act of 1955 and promises that in his second term a voting rights act will be approved.

In order to stop that second term conservative southern and western Democrats unite to run a candidate who can oust the liberal Yankee president. Senator Absalom W. Robertson, the bane of President Ives existence, announces he will seek the 1956 Democratic presidential nomination. Despite being 69-years old his candidacy is quite serious and well funded by conservative business groups. Robert Welch, the candy mogul and founder of the John Birch Society, donates $10,000 to the Robertson campaign the day after the Virginian announces for the high office. A brutal primary campaign is waged by Senator Robertson, Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson, New York Governor Robert Wagner, Jr., Texas Senator Lyndon Johnson and Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver for the presidential nod. However, the popularity, name recognition and money of Senator Robertson proves unstoppable. He wins the Democratic nomination and names Governor Wagner as his running-mate.

At the Republican National Convention President Irving Ives makes an acceptance speech celebrating the legacy of late President Taft and extolling the virtues of New Federalism. He also attacks the, "hordes of reactionary men whom only know how to yell 'stop' at the forces of history." He names California Senator Richard M. Nixon as his running-mate to shore up anti-communist support and because "Nixon knows how to kick under the belt and smile about it."

The campaign of 1956 is on. The Republican ticket of President Ives and Nixon against the Democratic team of Senator Robertson and Wagner. Who do you think would win?         

This seems that it would make a pretty good timeline, but Hugh Scott was not elected to the senate until 1958 and did not become the Senate Republican Leader until the deth of Everett Dirksen in 1969. Realistically, the Senate Majority Leader would have been William Knowland of California.
BTW, I wuld have voted for Ives hands down in this TL!
2422  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: A Second Chance on: August 31, 2012, 05:59:30 pm
Very interesting developments in your timeline! It seems that both the Democrats and Republicans are ging to turn out very different that they are today especially regarding foreign policy. BTW, what are Lyndon Johnson (assuming he never had his fatal heart attack in 1973 in this TL) and Richard Lugar up to? Also, was their still an assassination attempt on Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968?, as you mentioned him in your post about JFK pushing through his Great Society programs shortly before the 1970 midterms and your post about the 1984 Democratic candidates.
2423  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Based on RNC speeches, who is running in 2016? on: August 31, 2012, 09:45:54 am
I think that Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Bob McDonnel, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan (assuming Romney loses in 2012) are all going to run for the Republican nomination in 2016. There is a possibility that Susana Martinez and Condoleezza Rice may run as well. I hope that Rick Santorum does not get the nomination beacuse I think his ideas and positions are dangerous and destructive to our country.
2424  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Election of 2000: Santorum v. Shaheen on: July 24, 2012, 02:24:35 pm
I know that this timeline has not been updated in several moths, but I feel that the thought of having Rick Santorum as president on 9/11 would be pretty scary.
2425  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: A Second Chance on: June 06, 2012, 06:56:12 pm
Overall, this is an incredible timeline! The only complain that I have is that you should have went over some of the important events in Richard Nixon's term such as the Cuban Missle Crisis and the passing of the Civil rights Act of 1963 in more depth. Other than that, this is an awesome timeline that should continue on!

Thanks a lot! When I started this out, it was meant to be from a 1968 POV so that one could get the context of where I was trying to go (anti-war Republican vs. Pro-war Democrat) and thus Nixon's presidency was only referred to in hindsight.

I understand what you mean about the POV of the timeline. I just have one question about the War in Vietnam. Was it originally escalated by President Nixon in 1964 or not until Kennedy took office in 1965?
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 96 [97] 98


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines