Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 17, 2018, 12:35:01 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 102
76  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best post-WWII Republican President on: March 04, 2018, 04:44:31 pm
Probably Eisenhower or Reagan. Along with Theodore Roosevelt and possibly George H.W. Bush in 1988, Eisenhower and Reagan would have been the only other Republicans I would have voted for as President during the 20th Century.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was Hillary expected to win on: March 01, 2018, 02:41:02 pm
The same reasons why Richard Nixon was favored to win in 1960 and why Al Gore was favored to win in 2000. The economy was in relatively good shape in 2016 (the US economy grew 3.5% that year) and the incumbent President (Barack Obama) had high approval ratings. Clinton fell into the same trap that Nixon and Gore feel into by taking victory for granted and not campaigning in a strong enough manner. These factors (coupled with some election rigging on the part of the Russians) was enough to deny Clinton a victory.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post Random US Election County Maps Here on: February 25, 2018, 08:45:16 am

5% swing to Bill Clinton in 1996.
Which states does Clinton gain here?
A 5% universal swing to Bill Clinton would have been enough for him to win Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, so I assume he wins those states in the map.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2016 primaries (both parties) with no Russian interference on: February 18, 2018, 01:03:35 pm
Trump is not the Republican nominee, instead it's probably Cruz or Rubio.

Clinton still wins the Democratic nomination.
You’re probably right. I would say that the only primaries that Trump would win are West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York. I also feel that John Kasich would do a lot better, perhaps winning the Republican nomination after a brokered convention.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: NJ GOV 2021: Michael Doherty vs. Phil Murphy on: February 12, 2018, 11:20:15 am
Phil Murphy would likely win with around 57% of the vote and pick up Salem and Morris Counties. I don't see the Republicans winning the NJ governorship again until 2029 or 2033.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Trump versus Reagan primary on: February 12, 2018, 10:59:52 am
Maybe something like this (Reagan is in red and Trump is in blue):



Ohio and Wisconsin would be very close, but I would say that Trump would win them in the end.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1976: Reagan (R) vs. Scoop Jackson (D) on: February 12, 2018, 09:10:08 am

Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson (D-WA)/Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 289 EV (52%)
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Former Treasury Secretary John Connally (R-TX): 239 EV (46%)
Others: 0 EV (2%)

I feel that “Scoop” Jackson’s term in office would be much more successful than Jimmy Carters IRL and that he would be re-elected over a George H.W. Bush/John Anderson ticket in 1980. After President Jackson’s death in September of 1983, Vice-President Jimmy Carter would assume office and be elected in his own right in 1984 and re-elected in 1988. In 1992, Congressman Jack Kemp would likely defeat Vice President Mondale, becoming the first Republican President in 16 years and the first elected to two terms in office since Eisenhower.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton 2016 primary voters-if she runs again will you support her? on: February 10, 2018, 08:12:29 pm
I did not support Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Primary (Bernie Sanders was my candidate of choice), and will probably not vote for her in the 2020 Democratic Primary as well. On a side note, I feel that Clinton would easily defeat Trump in a rematch, perhaps receiving as much as 377 Electoral Votes and 55% of the popular vote.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats who will lose to Trump on: February 04, 2018, 09:15:20 pm
I'm convinced Warren would lose. I think she's too much of a hoity-toity intellectual type that it will feel like she's talking down to people. Trump loves insulting her, too.

By the way, I'm saying that as someone who would wholeheartedly support her. I think it's painful that one of the drawbacks for a presidential candidate is that she's too smart, but this is the America we live in now.

Gilllibrand would only lose by virtue of looking like Hillary Clinton.

Nobody will care about Booker's connection with big pharma and Wall Street because we already have a President whose MO is that money makes people smart. Booker would lose because he's a really cheap imitation of Obama.

Kaine would lose because Hillary.

Andrew Cuomo would lose because he is the stereotypical corrupt NY politician and he's creepy looking.

Basically, the weak points for every Democratic candidate is either their looks or something else superficial. Welcome to Trump's America.
I tend to agree for the most part, though I feel that Cory Booker could eke out a narrow win by increasing Black turnout in a few key states. I also do no see Oprah, Jay-Z, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Mark Cuban, Kanye West, or Mark Zuckerburg defeating Trump as well.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1964 inverted on: January 31, 2018, 05:20:01 pm

JFK picks George Smathers as his running mate in 1960 instead of LBJ. This helps Kennedy a lot in the South (where he picks up Florida and Mississippi pretty easily), but reduces his share of the black vote by about 5%, allowing Richard Nixon to narrowly pick up Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey (and thus the Presidency). Upon taking office, Nixon pursued a pro-civil Rights agenda and is successful in passing a major civil rights bill in 1962 (roughly the same as the Civil Rights Act of 1964 from OTL). Despite his overall successful time in office, President Nixon is assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald while on a trip to Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, and Vice President Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. assumes office. Lodge continues Nixon’s civil rights policies and is able to pass the Voting Rights Act in July  of 1964. Additionally, President Lodge begins to escalate the Vietnam War (which turns out the same as it did in RL). President Lodge survives a primary challenge from Barry Goldwater (who condemns the civil rights policies of the Nixon and Lodge Administrarions) and picks former West Virginia Governor Cecil Underwood as his running-mate due to his youth (Underwood was only 41) and as a way to gain support in some of the upper South and border states.

On the Democratic side, former Mississippi Governor Ross Barnett defeats Hubert Humphrey for the Democratic nomination and, as a surprise, selects Barry Goldwater as his running-mate due to their mutual opposition to federal civil rights legislation. Due to the extreme nature of such a ticket, many prominent Democrats such as Hubert Humphrey, JFK and LBJ endorse President Lodge, who goes on to win the largest election victory since FDR some 28 years earlier.  



Your 1960 - NV (Not enough African Americans)
I feel that LBJ helped quite a bit in Nevada due to his Southwestern roots. Without him on the Democratic ticket, Nevada would have likely went to Nixon narrowly. Other than that, the map looks pretty good, though I have JFK hitting 60% of the vote in Florida and 70% in Georgia.
Why would he hit 60% in Florida?
George Smathers was a very popular Senator and would have helped Kennedy immensely in the state with Conservative-leaning voters and opponents of civil rights, as Smathers voted against all civil rights legislation except the 1957 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act and had a reputation as a segregationist overall. Maybe 60% was a bit high, but I feel that Florida would have easily voted for Kennedy if he opted to pick George Smathers as his running-mate instead of LBJ.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1964 inverted on: January 31, 2018, 05:55:27 am

JFK picks George Smathers as his running mate in 1960 instead of LBJ. This helps Kennedy a lot in the South (where he picks up Florida and Mississippi pretty easily), but reduces his share of the black vote by about 5%, allowing Richard Nixon to narrowly pick up Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey (and thus the Presidency). Upon taking office, Nixon pursued a pro-civil Rights agenda and is successful in passing a major civil rights bill in 1962 (roughly the same as the Civil Rights Act of 1964 from OTL). Despite his overall successful time in office, President Nixon is assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald while on a trip to Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, and Vice President Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. assumes office. Lodge continues Nixon’s civil rights policies and is able to pass the Voting Rights Act in July  of 1964. Additionally, President Lodge begins to escalate the Vietnam War (which turns out the same as it did in RL). President Lodge survives a primary challenge from Barry Goldwater (who condemns the civil rights policies of the Nixon and Lodge Administrarions) and picks former West Virginia Governor Cecil Underwood as his running-mate due to his youth (Underwood was only 41) and as a way to gain support in some of the upper South and border states.

On the Democratic side, former Mississippi Governor Ross Barnett defeats Hubert Humphrey for the Democratic nomination and, as a surprise, selects Barry Goldwater as his running-mate due to their mutual opposition to federal civil rights legislation. Due to the extreme nature of such a ticket, many prominent Democrats such as Hubert Humphrey, JFK and LBJ endorse President Lodge, who goes on to win the largest election victory since FDR some 28 years earlier.  



Your 1960 - NV (Not enough African Americans)
I feel that LBJ helped quite a bit in Nevada due to his Southwestern roots. Without him on the Democratic ticket, Nevada would have likely went to Nixon narrowly. Other than that, the map looks pretty good, though I have JFK hitting 60% of the vote in Florida and 70% in Georgia.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1964 inverted on: January 30, 2018, 10:26:58 pm

JFK picks George Smathers as his running mate in 1960 instead of LBJ. This helps Kennedy a lot in the South (where he picks up Florida and Mississippi pretty easily), but reduces his share of the black vote by about 5%, allowing Richard Nixon to narrowly pick up Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey (and thus the Presidency). Upon taking office, Nixon pursued a pro-civil Rights agenda and is successful in passing a major civil rights bill in 1962 (roughly the same as the Civil Rights Act of 1964 from OTL). Despite his overall successful time in office, President Nixon is assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald while on a trip to Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, and Vice President Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. assumes office. Lodge continues Nixon’s civil rights policies and is able to pass the Voting Rights Act in July  of 1964. Additionally, President Lodge begins to escalate the Vietnam War (which turns out the same as it did in RL). President Lodge survives a primary challenge from Barry Goldwater (who condemns the civil rights policies of the Nixon and Lodge Administrarions) and picks former West Virginia Governor Cecil Underwood as his running-mate due to his youth (Underwood was only 41) and as a way to gain support in some of the upper South and border states.

On the Democratic side, former Mississippi Governor Ross Barnett defeats Hubert Humphrey for the Democratic nomination and, as a surprise, selects Barry Goldwater as his running-mate due to their mutual opposition to federal civil rights legislation. Due to the extreme nature of such a ticket, many prominent Democrats such as Hubert Humphrey, JFK and LBJ endorse President Lodge, who goes on to win the largest election victory since FDR some 28 years earlier. 
88  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alternate Israeli Election, 2015 on: January 30, 2018, 01:56:52 pm
Jamal Zahalka

I guess corruption is fine as long as we get to throw the Jews into the sea Smiley Smiley Smiley
At least I didn’t say Ismail Haniyeh or Hassan Nasrallah lol.
89  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alternate Israeli Election, 2015 on: January 29, 2018, 08:55:01 pm
Jamal Zahalka
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What state will trend most to the Democrat in 2020? on: January 28, 2018, 09:30:01 am
I have Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming trending the most Republican in 2020 and Arizona, California, DC, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Washington trending the most Democratic in 2020.

91  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Syrian Democratic Forces Vs Free Syrian Army on: January 28, 2018, 09:12:01 am
Neither (not a supporter of Wahhabism and Sunni Islamic extremism)
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you terminate a pregnancy if the pre-natal test was positive for DS? on: January 28, 2018, 09:08:33 am
I have a couple co-workers know a couple of people with DS and neither of then have have tentacles covered with poisonous spikes protruding from their eye sockets.
93  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rank the Russian Governments in the past 300 years on: January 27, 2018, 08:55:51 pm
1. Russian Democratic Federative Republic - very short-lived, but had it been allowed to continue would have been one of the freest countries in the world at the time. If Kerensky had overcome his pride and got out of the damn war, the whole history of Eastern Europe would be hugely more optimistic.
2. Russian Provisional Government - plagued by difficulties in dual power and undermined by the fact that the liberals put off real elections because they didn't trust the Soviets. Still a lot better than what preceded and followed it.
3. Gorbachev's USSR - less because of what it was and more because of what it could have been. One of the few periods in Russia's history where it has been moving in the right direction quickly.
4. Pre-Stalin RSFSR and USSR - an exercise in could-have-beens. This is an era often overlooked because of what followed it, but amazing feats in development, both industrially and in standards of living were achieved.
5. Russian Federation -  Especially after 2008, the very definition of shooting oneself in the foot to fight the last war. A terrible missed opportunity.
6. Between Stalin and Gorbachev - mild liberalization followed by increasing corruption and incompetence. The leaders of the country during this period already knew their ideology was flawed, but had to continue for their own benefit.
7. Russian Empire - the excesses of this regime have apparently been forgotten to history. This is a government which had no real interest in the standard of living of 90% of the population and clamped down on political freedom as much as Stalin did. Anyone who is confused as to why most Russian Imperial officers joined the Red army for the civil war, or why it was so easy to compel a nation to engage in what can be only-slightly-hyperbolically described as class genocide would do well to read more into the imperial period beyond Fox's Anastasia. There were ups and downs depending on the tsar in question, but beyond Alexander I, pre-Pugachev Catherine, and maybe Alexander II no period is good enough to beat out Khrushchev, as low a bar it is.
8. Stalin's USSR - for obvious reasons.
The Russian Empire sounds a lot like Iran under the Pahlavi monarch, the only difference being that the Czars were a bit better regarding human rights overall.
94  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which state Republican party is the most extreme? on: January 27, 2018, 08:51:53 pm
Probably Alabama, West Virginia, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, North Carolina, and Maine.
95  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted? Indiana on: January 27, 2018, 06:32:09 pm
Gubernatorial:
1968: Edgar Whitcomb
1972: Matthew Walsh
1976: Otis Bowen
1980: John A. Hillenbrand II
1984: Robert Orr
1988: Evan Bayh
1992: Evan Bayh
1996: Frank O'Bannon
2000: Frank O'Bannon
2004: Mitch Daniels
2008: Mitch Daniels
2012: John Gregg
2016: John Gregg

Senate Class I
1970: Vance Hartke
1976: Vance Hartke
1982: Richard Lugar
1988: Richard Lugar
1994: Richard Lugar
2000: Richard Lugar
2006: Richard Lugar

2012: Joe Donnelly
2018: Joe Donnelly


Senate Class III
1968: Birch Bayh
1974: Birch Bayh
1980: Birch Bayh
1986: Jill Long Thompson
1990 (special): Baron Hill
1992: Dan Coats
1998: Evan Bayh
2004: Evan Bayh
2010: Brad Ellsworth
2016: Evan Bayh
96  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rank the Russian Governments in the past 300 years on: January 27, 2018, 06:16:08 pm
1. Russian Federation (1991-1999)
2. USSR (1985-1991)
3. Russian Federation (1999-Present)
3. Russian Empire
4. USSR (1917-1922)
5. USSR (1953-1985)
6. USSR (1922-1953)

Much like kelestian, I did not include the Russian Republic due to its short-lived nature.
97  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Estes Kefauver on: January 26, 2018, 07:52:14 pm
Massive FF and one of my favorite Senators of the Post-War era. Estes Kefauver was one of the few Southern Senators who was generally a supporter of civil rights. Kefauver supported the 1957 and 1960 Civil Rights Act, supported repealing the poll tax as early as 1942, and condemned the "Southern Manifesto," a 1956 Congressional document signed by a majority of Southern politicians of both political parties in opposition to racial integration of public places. Had he lived another two years or so, Kefauver would have possibly voted in favor of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and 1965 Voting Rights Act. Additionally, Kefauver was a strong opponent of McCarthyism, and a passionate advocate for consumer protection laws, antitrust legislation, labor unions, and other progressive legislation.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post Random Maps Here 2. on: January 19, 2018, 05:07:26 pm
Here are three outcomes of the 2020 presidential election with three different Democratic Nominees, the first one is with Bernie Sanders.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Bernie Sanders: 278 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Donald Trump: 260 Electoral Votes (49% of PV)

As you can see I believe Sanders can narrowly beat Trump by flipping the three Rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin with higher Nonwhite and youth turnout, along with increased support in Rural WWC areas. Trump will make gains in Wealthy, White, suburbs, throughout the sun belt and will thus improve his margins in Florida, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona, along with coming closer in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, and losing California by 20 points instead of 30. This will have the effect of making him improve in the popular vote (losing it by one instead of two points), while losing the electoral college. The next map is with Cory Booker.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Cory Booker: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)

As you can see, Booker would flip Michigan and hold all the Hillary States due to high turnout from Nonwhites and young voters, However due to his Race he'd fail to make up any ground in Rural WWC areas would doom him in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump would still narrowly win Florida due to his unwavering support from the high-turnout elderly White population their. Finally, Booker would lose the electoral college with an even bigger popular vote victory then Hillary (three points instead of two) due to him maintaining the support of many Educated White suburbanites along with higher Nonwhite and youth turnout (due to these factors he'd carry California by around a 30 point margin). The last map I'd for Warren.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Elizabeth Warren: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)

As much as I hate to say this, it's pretty obvious Elizabeth Warren is the weakest of these three potential Nominees, because though she would excite the Democratic base of Nonwhites and Young people, her Gender would turn of even more WWCs, which would cause her to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by even larger margins and cause her to lose Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada. Meanwhile, her Left-wing economic views would turn of Wealth White Suburbanites, which would cause her to barely win Virginia and Colorado (Nonwhites and Young people would save her in those two states), win California by 20 points instead of 30, and lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida by larger margins then Hillary. Overall these National shifts would cause Trump to win the popular vote by two points, along with winning 328 Electoral votes from 34 states.



I agree with you regarding Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (though I feel that they would have an edge in Arizona), ni also feel that Cory Booker would have a good chance to pick up Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Still, my gut feeling is that a Kamala Harris/John Bel Edwards ticket would be the best choice for the Democrats in 2020. I think that such a ticket would hold all of he Clinton 2016 states and also pick up Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and maybe even Louisiana and win the popular vote by about 5%.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: King Lear's concern trolling megathread on: January 18, 2018, 04:26:01 pm
Worst case scenario for Republicans:

Senate: D+3 (Republicans pick up Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, and Tennessee)
House: D+112 (Democrats pick up every seat with a PVI of less than R+10 with the exception of AR-2, KY-6, ME-2, and MO-2 and also pick up CA-1, CA-4, CA-23, CA-50, CO-4, IN-2, MT-AL, NY-27, TN-4, and UT-4)
Gubernatorial Races: D+13 (Democrats pick up Illinois, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Georgia, Tennessee, Nevada, and Arizona)

Best case scenario for Republicans

Senate: R+9 (Republicans lose Arizona and Nevada, but pick up Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Minnseota (S), Montana, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Dakota)
House: D+8 (Democrats pick up CA-10, CA-21, CA-24, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CO-6, FL-27, IA-1, NV-3, VA-10, and WA-8, whereas the Republicans pick up FL-13, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, NH-1, NY-18, and WI-3)
Gubernatorial Races: R+1 (Democrats pick up Illinois and New Mexico, but the Republicans pick up Minnesota, Connecticut, and Rhode Island
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How will each party view Russia post-Trump? on: January 14, 2018, 09:10:06 pm
I can easily see the Democrats taking a hardline stance against Russia (similar to the Republican Party during the Cold War era) and the Republicans adopting a pro-Russia policy (due to the fact that Putin has framed himself as a defender of Christianity and traditional values). I can easily see the Democratic Party leadership supporting policies such as breaking off diplomatic ties with Russia, implementing an arms embargo against Russia, subjecting Russia to a sustained naval blockade, supporting the expansion of NATO to include countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, and expanding US efforts to remove the Putin regime from power.
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 102


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines