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December 10, 2017, 07:20:00 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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76  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who Is The Worst President of All Time? on: August 04, 2016, 07:56:49 pm
Definitely Buchanan, though I would expect most forum members to vote for Ronald Reagan as the worst President.
77  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of US Presidents Series: Chester A. Arthur through Theodore Roosevelt on: August 04, 2016, 07:55:21 pm
78  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The CrabCake Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: August 03, 2016, 06:44:46 pm
Angry Iranian women will make the country safe-MDP from here on out.
79  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hassan Rouhani on: August 03, 2016, 06:43:14 pm
Probably mixed overall. Even though Hassan Rouhani favors gradual reform in Iran, he has little power to implement any real change. That being said, Rouhani is still a much better person than the Shah of Iran ever was and does have a high level of experience in the Iranian political system. On a side note, he might lose reelection in 2017 to either Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Qasem Soleimani.
80  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Will your county vote for Trump? on: August 03, 2016, 06:38:01 pm
I don't see Donald Trump winning Monmouth County. It is trending towards the Democrats and Bill and Hillary Clinton are very popular here.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated Ceilings For Both Candidates on: August 03, 2016, 01:43:09 pm
Clinton:


Trump:
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2020 Republican Primary on: August 02, 2016, 05:45:50 pm
Candidates I would support:
Rand Paul
Charlie Baker
Bob Corker
Nikki Haley
Bruce Rauner

Candidates I am neutral on:
Ben Sasse
Greg Abbott
Marco Rubio

Candidates I would never support:
Ted Cruz
Tom Cotton
Mike Pence
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: Barack Obama (D) vs. George Allen (R) in 2012 in a Gore-wins-in-2000-scenario on: August 01, 2016, 09:30:51 pm
Also, here are my own thoughts on this:

George Allen/Mitt Romney (R): 52.08% PV; 326 EVs
Barack Obama/Evan Bayh (D): 46.11% PV; 212 EVs



Basically, the recovering economy in 2011-2012 (in spite of President Allen's previous misguided austerity policies in 2009-2010) along with the rapidly escalating and extremely high tensions between Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Iran cause most Americans to agree with President Allen's argument that the U.S. Presidency isn't a place for-on-the job training--especially given the current situation in the Middle East.
Seems about right. With regards to the rising tensions in the Middle East in this scenario, would you feel that President Allen would be more likely to support either Iraq, Iran, or neither. Personally, I feel that President Allen may decide to support Iraq if Saddam Hussien promises to allow the US to install Reza Pahlavi (the Shah of Iran's son) into power if the Iraqi army is able to successfully remove the Iranian government from power.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Clinton be doing against Marco Rubio? on: August 01, 2016, 04:15:59 pm
I think that "Little Marco" would have been a much stronger nominee that Donald Trump and that he would have ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election by winning all the Romney 2012 plus Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and ME-2.
85  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 01, 2016, 09:58:38 am
I mean this question sincerely and it is especially directed to my fellow American citizens.

I, as an immigrant from the United Arab Emirates, was very proud a little more than two years ago when I had the great honor to become a citizen of the United States. Ever since I am very proud to be a citizen of the United States and grateful for the opportunities America and California gave to me. This country was always, and is still of course, a beacon of hope to me and a symbol for democracy despite all the deep seated problems we face. I have always admired the unique history of America and the progress this nation has made: From the declaration  of independence, over the liberation of slaves and women’s suffrage to the civil rights movement in the 20th century. I have every reason to believe, the current problems can be solved in the future.

But as a citizen, I am really ashamed and embarrassed that we have major party nominee for president like Donald Trump. And this is not about political differences, not left versus right or liberal versus conservative. I have the same differences with former GOP contenders like Jeb, Rubio, Carson, Kasich, Cruz or Paul as well, but I do not question their character. But with Trump, we have a candidate who insults an entire religion, attacks parents of a fallen solider viciously, makes sexist comments about women, mocks a reporter with a disability, calls for terrorists families to be killed or denounces a prisoner of war (McCain), although he himself was never on the battlefield. Here we have a candidate who says a judge can’t to his job because of his Mexican heritage and who makes the claim an opponent’s father was involved in the JFK assassination without any proof. And last but not least, who seems totally unable to accept any criticism. No matter from who.

I have nothing against it when candidates speak their mind, make fun of opponents like calling them “low energy”, but here we have a dude who has no respect for anything, except himself. It’s all about him and how bad he has been treated by the press and so on. He did not misspoke, because he did it too often. And he hasn’t had the courage in any case to apologize. To say “I was wrong. I’m sorry”. No, he’s always right. He knows the system better than anybody, knows more about ISIS than the generals. Meanwhile, he hasn’t even a clue about basic things in foreign policy. Let even alone all his other cheating like Trump University, unpaid bills in Atlantic City and so on. I think it’s a disgrace in the eyes of the world to have such a candidate. “The world is laughing at us”, the Trumpster claimed. If that has ever been true, then now, because of his candidacy. But unfortunately, it is not funny at this stage where we are now. Not anymore. As I see it, Trump has already damaged the American reputation around the globe.

I mean, you can agree with some of his proposals like a stronger border, no citizenship for illegal immigrants, renegotiated trade deals and no TPP, less gun control, less taxes and regulations, more military spending, abortions and a repeal of Obamacare. All issues you can argue about. But even if you adopt the Republican positions, aren’t we better than Trump? Do we really want a president with this kind of character? Sure, Hillary is not perfect and she made mistakes. No question. (I’m not even writing this as a Hillary-supporter, only as a citizen.)


Any thoughts on this?

86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you support? - August 2016 on: August 01, 2016, 09:55:49 am
Still Gary Johnson/William Weld. I despise Donald Trump for his virulent racism against Hispanics, African-Americans, and Muslim-Americans and the anti-intellectual bent of his campaign and was never a huge fan of Hillary Clinton and strongly disagree with her foreign policy stances regarding Russia and Syria. I feel more comfortable to vote for Gary Johnson because New Jersey will likely go for Clinton with over 60% of the vote.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Areas in Missouri that Hillary Clinton needs to perform well to win on: August 01, 2016, 09:49:15 am
I don't think that Hillary Clinton will carry Missouri when all is said and done, though I expect it to trend heavily towards the Democrats to the point that Donald Trump will only win the state by a 3% margin.

Yeah, I expect the burbs to swing hard to Hillary.
That's what I was expecting as well. I think that Hillary Clinton will probably pick up Buchanan, Jefferson, St. Genevieve, and Washington counties and over-perform Obama in St. Louis, Jackson, and Boone counties. When all is said and done, Missouri should go to Donald Trump by about a 51-48 margin.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1948: Thomas Dewey/Dwight Green v. Harry Truman/Alben Barkley on: July 31, 2016, 07:55:53 pm
Maybe Illinois flips, but besides that I don't see anything different happening.

Warren didn't cause California to go Republican.
Seems about right. Maybe Thomas Dewey picking Dwight Green as his running mate creates enough of a butterfly effect to flip Virginia (which was one of the closesr states in 1948) to the Republicans as well. If that happened, the Presidential election would have went to the House of Representatives.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states should Trump concede? on: July 31, 2016, 07:35:48 pm
Probably Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Utah.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Areas in Missouri that Hillary Clinton needs to perform well to win on: July 31, 2016, 07:34:35 pm
I don't think that Hillary Clinton will carry Missouri when all is said and done, though I expect it to trend heavily towards the Democrats to the point that Donald Trump will only win the state by a 3% margin.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Indiana on: July 31, 2016, 07:32:50 pm
Safe R; 54-44 Donald Trump
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi on: July 30, 2016, 07:58:23 pm
HP. Besides the dictatorial stuff, spent his kingdom's entire budget on toys his army couldn't operate, and cockamamie development schemes that, combined with a total mismanagement of oil revenues, threw the country into economic chaos.

TL;DR: Talked a big game about enlightened monarchy. In the end was unenlightened and was a horrible monarch.
I agree with you 100%. The only policy initiated by the Shah of Iran that I would have supported was the "White Revolution," which gave Iranian women the right to vote, instituted some land reforms meant to help peasants, improved religious freedom for non-Muslims, and increased access to education for ordinary Iranians. As opposed to genuine concern for the plight of the Iranian people, the true motives behind the "White Revolution" were to further enrich the Iranian royal family and preserve the Shah's power however. Other than some efforts at reform during his reign, the Shah of Iran was little more than a brutal dictator who only cared about his own interests at the expense of everyday Iranians.
93  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: July 30, 2016, 04:10:59 pm
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After his embarassment during the primary over his affair and his dishonesty, and his failure to endorse Trump at the GOP Convention, I do not see any political future for Senator Cruz.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Illinois on: July 28, 2016, 07:17:02 am
Safe D
Clinton: 61%
Trump: 37%
Others: 2%
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Your reaction to Hillary winning WV in the roll call on: July 27, 2016, 04:12:50 pm
No reaction (normal human being)
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Who will be President in 2024? on: July 27, 2016, 09:35:55 am
Probably either Tom Cotton or Lyin' Ted.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe an Obama 2012/Trump voter on: July 26, 2016, 08:33:06 am
An Obama/Trump voter would probably be a blue collar worker from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, or Maine that is opposed to Clinton's support for free trade and is attracted to Trump's message of economic nationalism or a African-American Republican who despite Trump's deep racism and hatred for their racial group as a whole, feels that Trump can be better trusted on racial issues than Clinton.

On the other hand, a Romney/Clinton voter would be a white collar, suburban Republican from either Utah, Texas, New Hampshire, or Virginia who is turned off by Trump's extremism and the overall anti-intellectual bent of his campaign.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Idaho on: July 25, 2016, 03:31:18 pm
Safe R.
Trump: 56%
Clinton: 34
Johnson: 8%
Others: 2%
99  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who are you voting for in the 2016 General Election? on: July 24, 2016, 09:45:51 pm
Gary Johnson/William Weld. I do not like either Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and would never vote for either one of them.
100  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi on: July 24, 2016, 09:41:59 pm
Keep in mind that although Mosaddegh was democratically elected, by the time of the coup democracy in Iran had basically ceased to exist.  Mosaddegh dissolved the Parliament in 1953 thanks to a rigged election in which 99% of the voters supposedly voted to make him a virtual dictator.  The coup only became a certainty after the dissolution of Parliament pushed the Shah over the edge.  

Of course, the direction that the Shah took Iran in the aftermath of the coup was bad in many ways, but the act of the coup itself is not something I have a problem with.
Did the Shah lead the initial efforts efforts behind the 1953 coup and convinced the US and the UK to support it, or was he pretty much co-opted by the US and the UK into supporting it? Either way, I feel that the coup was a bad decision and still believe that the Shah was one of the worst leaders in Iranian history and one of the most infamous dictators of the 20th Century. On a side note, I do like the Shah's father Reza Shah Pahlavi and feel that he was one of the better leaders in Iranian history despite his authoritarian nature.
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