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1  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Pennsylvania Poll: Bush over Kerry, 45-39 on: April 21, 2004, 11:48:07 am
I wouldn't be so quick to doubt this poll.  The registered as opposed to likely is due to how distant the election is, the Specter-Toomey race by Quinnipac does use likely voters.

8% is high for Nader, but there are alot of anti-war type people in the Pittsburgh and Philly area that might not be happy with Kerry wanting to keep our troops in Iraq, that has caused many anti-war types to go for Nader.
2  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush +4 in New Jersey...????? (!) on: April 15, 2004, 07:18:45 pm
First off, uni polls aren't nessecarily unreliable.

Next, if you check out www.dcpoliticalreport.com, you will find that these numbers have been pretty remarkably consistent, Bush has been about even with named Democrats for about a year now. It would seem strange for New Jersey of all places to go for Bush, though, but these numbers are interesting.
3  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin Primary (Event) on: February 17, 2004, 11:10:26 pm
One thing that is interesting: The exit polls indicate that Edwards did best among areas and demographic groups that traditionally vote Republicans. Conversely, Kerry may have been saved in Wisconsin by the minority. Vote. The next primaries are in Utah, Idaho, and Hawaii. I can't predict what Hawaii will do as it's demographics are truly unique, but in Utah and Idaho the demographics strongly skew Republican. If Edwards can keep us his strength among GOP-leaning demographics, he could pick up two additional victories.
4  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush approval rating drops on: January 21, 2004, 12:49:30 am
Keep in mind, while Bush's approval ratinf of 58% according to the latest polls at www.nationaljournal.com aren't stellar, Bush is polling better then any other candidate did the January of their election year since Eisenhower in 1956, and you can go check the election results on this site to see how that one went..
5  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gephardt drops out on: January 21, 2004, 12:46:09 am
This has to be a big hurt to the Dean campaign. Gephardt did better among blue collar workers, pro-war Democrats, and Moderate to Conservative Democrats. Those Democrats are not as likely to side with Dean(In fact, Kerry and Edwards did well among them in Iowa also), and so I think most Gephardt supporters will side with Dean's rivals. I think this is the beginning of Democrats opposed to Dean's nomination coalescing and joining around candidates other then Dean.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:IMPORTANT-Voter Registration Thread on: January 21, 2004, 12:39:48 am
I'll register.
7  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:What now for Dean? on: January 21, 2004, 12:31:06 am
I am suprised so many are predicting doom for Dean so quickly. Other candidates have lost the Iowa caucus before and gone on to victory, and I don't think that a huge amount of New Hampshirites are going to suddenly change their mind based on Iowa's vote. New Hampshire is where Dean had a larger lead initally and was a state that was always seen as more "Dean territory". Moreover, the resurgence of Kerry and Edwards may draw votes from Clark and split the Anti-Dean opposition. I think calling Dean dead would be premature.
8  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:At this point, can anyone else win? on: December 27, 2003, 10:15:51 pm
Yes, another candidate could still win. While Dean is leading, he still is not polling a majority of the vote in any state. The early primaries should provide eventually for someone to arise as a clear challenger to Dean for the nomination. Once that happens, there will be alot of rallying to that candidate as there are many people in the Democratic Party who don't like him(calling the DLC which Clinton once headed the Republican wing of the Democratic Party didn't help) and many who are concerned about Dean's electability. In fact, I would predict at the end of the day Dean won't win the nomination.
9  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls / Re:Polls do not equal destiny on: December 23, 2003, 06:41:35 pm
No, polls done now cannot be used to accurately predict what will happen in November. However, they are an accurate reflection of how the public feels now, and the amount that Democrats are down is territory they will have to make up. And with the economy seen as likely to improve, that will be hard to do.
10  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Another question on: December 22, 2003, 11:40:35 am
Dont be so sure about the Dem picking up NH. Current polls give Bush a 25 point lead there.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re:Terrorist behind September 11 strike was trained by Saddam on: December 14, 2003, 10:51:47 pm
If this is true, the Democrats better dump Dean and nominate a pro-war candidate ASAP.
12  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Jewish vote in a Dean-Bush race on: December 13, 2003, 12:24:06 am
Dean has said something along the lines that the US should be neutral between Israel and Palestine IIRC. I am sure the GOP would make a great effort to publicize that to Jewish voters...
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Design Your Dream Ticket on: December 10, 2003, 09:27:28 pm
I'd want to have myself as President.
14  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Gore Endorses Dean on: December 10, 2003, 09:24:10 pm
No Gore's out of touch stands on the environment and guns cost him WV at least and AR is socially conservative.

Clinton was(and still is) very popular in both Arkansas and West Virginia.
Gore distancing himself from Clinton was not the only thing that cost Gore WV; Coal, Guns, distancing himself from Byrd, Steel and Gore's stuffy image hurt him badly. But distancing himself from Clinton was the final straw.

Whether or not an area is socially conservative has nothing whatsoever to do with with whether it leans Dem or not.

Actually, it is has everything to do with which party it leans toward.
15  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Who Will Drop Out before NH Primary? on: December 10, 2003, 05:01:46 am
Gephardt won't drop out after Iowa with his home state of Missouri coming Feb.3
16  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Who Will Drop Out before NH Primary? on: December 09, 2003, 11:35:45 pm
None of them will drop out before New Hampshire. Kerry will be waiting for the NH results. Gephardt still has Missouri coming up Feb.3 which he can win. Lieberman and Clark are both hoping to try to pick up a couple of the Feb. 3 states. Edwards will be hoping to win South Carolina on Feb. 3. Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun never had a chance in the first place.
17  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Gore a crazy liberal? Or just plain CRAZY?! on: December 09, 2003, 11:07:52 pm
I think Gore might be Crazy like a fox here. Endorsing an unelectable candidate in 2004 means he gets to run in 2008.
18  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Gore Endorses Dean on: December 08, 2003, 09:55:45 pm
Is this really going to have that great of an effect? Are there really that many "Gore Democrats" who love Gore and will follow his endorsement?
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:VOTE on: December 06, 2003, 08:01:20 pm
2002- Maryland:

Governor Robert Ehrlich(R)- Won
Rep. Connie Morella(R)- Lost

2003- Pennsylvania:

Jim Roddey (R)- Lost
20  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Changes in 2004 on: December 06, 2003, 07:52:58 pm
I'd think because of Social Issues and the fate of the war, Bush still has a chance in WV.

I think New Mexico is likely to go over to Bush because the Democratic candidates seem to be trending towards protectionism. New Mexico being on our Southern border benefits greatly by NAFTA and free trade with Mexico, and so is likely to turn over to Bush.
21  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Early 2004 Predictions on: December 05, 2003, 12:53:24 pm
Well, I am guessing Gephart will win the primary. I also believe the economy will continue to improve and that the Iraqi Elections in June 2004 will provide some clear and tangible hope of victory. I think we will see New Mexico and Oregon switch over to Bush, and Missouri and West Virginia switch over to Gephart, give Bush a narrow EV win.
22  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Minnesota in 2004 on: December 03, 2003, 11:34:35 pm
I think Nader will do better when Dean tries to move to the middle after the primaries.

You're underestimating Bush's unpopularity in some quarters; the kind of people who would usually vote for a Green Party candidate (we're talking ultra-liberals, environmentalists, etc) absolutely despise him, and would vote for whoever they think is most likely to defeat Bush. I doubt they'll really care where the Dem. candidate stands, even assuming Dean suddenly moves to the middle. They just want Bush out of the White House.

I don't think the anti-Bush vote will win Dean the election, but I do believe it will nullify the threat posed by Nader.

I disagree. The Left-Wing movement wants the USA to withdraw from Iraq, and none of the mainstream Dems support that. That rift is going to prevent to many Far-Left votes from going to the Dems.
23  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 VP candidates on: December 02, 2003, 10:44:19 pm
It likely won't make much of a difference who the VP is, and people generally do not vote for Vice Presidents. Predictions that a particular VP candidate would allow one candidate to peel off large regions of the country are not going to come true.

Clark could help the nominee look more patriotic as a VP, or an upper-midwesterner might signal to those voters some degree of sympathy for them. But don't expect any dramatic gains by picking a certain VP candidate.
24  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:States after 2004. on: December 02, 2003, 10:38:46 pm
Or you could ask Clinton, who raised taxes on the wealthy in 1993, which of course doomed his chances of reelection....

Raising taxes on the wealthy wouldn't be a big political problem. Dean and Gephardt both want to raise taxes on the middle class, which could be harmful to them.
25  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:dean beat bush? on: December 02, 2003, 06:39:24 pm
Reasons why Dean would not make a strong candidate in 2004:

- Dean wants to repeal all of Bush's tax cuts, including those on the middle class. This, as Kerry pointed out, amounts to a tax raise on the middle class. This position would not be popular among moderate voters. Also likely to be unpopular with moderates would be his calls for a new large-scale re-regulation of business.

- Dean is a very vocal opponent of the war and opposed it from the beginning. The problem is, a large majority of Americans still say they support the war. Even Democrats in polls say they want a candidate who at first supported the war but was critical about how it was handled- nominating such a candidate would likely be a stronger choice then Dean.

- On social issues, Dean would be put at a disadvantage by his social liberalism as well, due to his signing of the Civil Unions bill in Vermont. While the other candidates share this position, the fact that he actually signed the bill may make him more vulnerable. In addition, he opposes the Defense of Marriage Act which Bill Clinton signed that would prevent all 50 states from recognizing gay marriage should one state decide to approve it. Him calling himself a Metrosexual won't help either.

- Geography: Perhaps the biggest one. If the States were to fall the way they did in 2000, the Democrat would lose by 18 electoral votes. So, the Democrats must hold on to Al Gore's states and capture a few Bush states as well. Dean is from New England, a region where the Democrats already dominate and from where the Democrats would not gain much of an advantage having their candidate be from. He might be helpful for New Hampshire, but Vermont is such a different state it would not even be clear there. In fact, Deanis probably one of the candidates least suited to appeal to any states that went for Bush in 2000.
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