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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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1  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: We need to have a talk about Gus on: May 05, 2013, 05:41:51 pm
But I think in general empathizing is a pretty hard thing to do in politics in general, at least over hot button issues. I can't relate in any way to something about "traditional marriage/preserving the sanctity of marriage" or "Obamacare is evil SOCIALISM!" type things. So I tend to dismiss such things pretty brusquely and not put much value in the things stated by people who believe them. Not something all that uncommon I'd say, from eithe rside.

Honestly, I'd disagree. It seems far more uncommon in the real world (on all sides) than here. I've had perfectly cordial conversations with people of all political orientations in the real world. This forum seems to attract neurosis for various reasons.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why was the WPA done away with? Could it or something similar be brought back? on: May 05, 2013, 05:35:06 pm
Short answer: Conservatives in Congress were able to destroy it during World War II because Roosevelt lost control of Congress. They weren't fans of public production.

More reasonably, both Congress and FDR realized that the whole World War II thing meant that we had much more urgent things to pay unemployed people to do.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: May 05, 2013, 05:29:06 pm
The point is why should we believe she would make a better Senator? I haven't read a single thing in this entire thread that would lead me to believe she would (whereas there are a few ones about Schatz).

Eh. They both have records (that I'm not familiar with). Seems perfectly reasonable for someone to prefer one over the other on the basis of that. Primaries happen. If not, why do we even bother with nonpartisan elections? (in fairness, a lot of people don't)
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: May 05, 2013, 05:13:18 pm
My question is, if Schatz hasn't had any problematic votes, if he hasn't had any questionable personal behavior, if he hasn't embarrassed the party, if he's on the right track to seniority and a chairmanship (probably) if he hasn't said anything bad, if he hasn't been a part of any controversy (besides his appointment), then why primary him? I just don't see any real justification for Hanabusa to primary Schatz. Yes, she can do it if she wants, but why?

EDIT: Yeah, there's the "we need more women/people of minority descent in the Senate" argument, but beyond that, nothing.

Because she wants to be Senator! It doesn't get any simpler than that.

And we should give a sh*t about what Hanabusa wants, because... ?

To most people, there's more to politics than making sure "my side" wins. Especially in a seat that's not really going to be contested in the general election.

A better way to put it is that Hanabusa believes that she'll make a better Senator.

I suppose we'll see if the Hawaiian electorate shares that sentiment.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What parties would you be in other countries? on: May 05, 2013, 05:07:40 pm
You got a strange mix of centrist and right wing parties. What principle are you going by?

In some countries, I think the centrist party has better policies. In some countries, I think the right-wing party has better policies. And in a few countries, I think the center-left has better policies, like Malaysia.

That being said, my European preferences get skewed heavily by strong Euroskepticism. Willing to overlook a few...iffy policies in exchange for Euroskepticism.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What parties would you be in other countries? on: May 05, 2013, 04:56:10 pm
Don't mind if I shamelessly steal pay homage to your format here...

Australia: Swing Voter (ALP or Coalition)
Canada: Conservative Party - 39.6%
  • Alberta: Progressive Conservatives (PC) - 44%
    British Columbia: BC Liberals - 45.8%
    Ontario: Progressive Conservatives (PC) - 35.4%
    Quebec: Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) - 31.2%
    Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Party - 64.3%
Czech Republic: Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - 20.2%
Estonia: Reform Party - 28.6%
Germany: Alternative for Germany (AfD) - N/A
Greece: New Democracy - 29.7%
Hungary: Fidesz - 52.7%
Iceland: Progressive Party - 24.4%
Israel: Likud - 23.3%
Japan: Japan Restoration Party - 20.5%
Korea, South: Saenuri - 42.8%
Malaysia: Pakatan Rakyat - 46.8%
Mexico: Swing Voter (PRI or PAN)
New Zealand: National Party - 47.3%
Norway: Progress Party - 22.9%
Philippines: Lakas–CMD - 37.0%
Poland: Law and Justice (PiS) - 29.9%
ROC (Taiwan): Kuomintang (KMT) - 44.6%
Singapore: People's Action Party - 60.1%
South Africa: Democratic Alliance - 16.7%
Sweden: Christian Democrats - 5.6%
Turkey: Justice and Development Party (AKP) - 49.8%
United Kingdom: United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) - N/A
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What parties would you be in other countries? on: May 05, 2013, 03:50:07 pm
Correct me if there's anything here that looks silly. Party's share of vote in most recent election shown and underlined if party is a part of its country's government:

  • Canada: New Democratic Party (NDP) - 31%
  • UK: Labour Party - 29%
  • Australia: Australian Labor Party (ALP) - 38%
  • France: Radical Party of the Left (PRG) - 2%
  • Germany: Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) - 23%
  • Italy: Civic Choice (SC) - 8%
  • India: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)  - 6%
  • Russia: A Just Russia (CP) - 13%
  • Japan: Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - 23%
  • Turkey: Republican People's Party (CHP) - 26%
  • Poland: Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) - 8%
  • Ukraine: Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR) - 14%
  • Egypt: Egyptian Social Democratic Party - 5%
  • Austria: The Greens - 10%

Unless there's something about the DPJ that you particularly really like, I believe you are seriously overestimating their "center-left" credentials. Certainly far more right-wing than the French Socialists (who you appear not to be a fan of).

On the other hand, it's not that much more to the right of the ALP (one of the more centrist major center-left parties), so it's not inconsistent or silly or anything.

Also, I love your share of the vote thing.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: do you own any 'gear' of your favorite sports team(s)? on: May 05, 2013, 03:46:09 pm
I have gear of my team in America's favorite spectator sport. politics
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What State is the Previous Poster best suited to Politically? on: May 05, 2013, 03:14:18 pm
Kansas. Culturally Northern, socially traditional, and largely pragmatic when it comes to governance.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: How would the preceding poster do with the following demographics? on: May 05, 2013, 03:09:27 pm
Against a generic D?

Race and Ethnicity
Whites: 62%
Blacks: 15%
Latinos: 25%
Asian-Americans: 50%

Gender
Men: 54%
Women: 48%

Religion
Protestants: 60%
Catholics: 55%
Jews: 35%
Evangelicals/Born Again: 70%

Political Orientation
Liberals: 15%
Moderates: 40%
Conservatives: 80%

LGBT Voters
LGBT: 35%

Income:
<$50K/year income: 35%
$50-100K/year income: 60%
$100-250K/year income: 60%
>$250K/year income: 40%
11  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Best Forum Running Mate for Preceding Poster on: May 05, 2013, 02:58:27 pm
I'd assume you'd be hunting for SoCon street cred, so I'd say Phil as well.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Gustaf on: May 05, 2013, 02:51:08 pm
FF as far as I can tell.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What State is the Previous Poster best suited to Politically? on: May 05, 2013, 02:49:46 pm
Going to go out on a limb and say Illinois. They seem to have a good supply of moderate Republicans.

I'd say Washington. Very very socially left-wing, but more restrained on economic issues. Seems Washingtony to me.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Political Quiz List. Are you a Quiz Whiz? on: May 05, 2013, 02:35:37 pm
Ironically, I expected to get National Conservative. These results are uh, surprising.

Social Liberalism 79.3
Christian Democracy 78.7
Market Liberalism 78.1
Social Democracy 74.0
Conservatism 72.0
Democratic Socialism 69.4
National Conservatism 68.0

Crime & Society: Market Liberalism, Social Democracy 8.3
Defense & Foreign Policy: Christian Democracy, Social Liberalism 8.8
Economy: Conservatism 8.5
Education & Science: Market Liberalism 8.9
Environment & Energy: Christian Democracy 8.1
Human Rights & Equality: Christian Democracy 8.0
Immigration: Social Democracy 8.3
Religion: Christian Democracy 8.7
Social Programs & Healthcare: Conservatism 8.1
Taxes & Budget: Social Liberalism, Social Democracy 10.0
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary does not run, which Republican has the best shot? on: May 05, 2013, 01:53:03 pm
Based on how moderate GHWB Dole McCain Romney Christie is, I seriously doubt that he can appeal to Conservative voters enough to win the Republican primary unless he shifts to the right. And if he does, it would certainly bite him in the back in the general election, so no I don't think he can win. But if he manages to stay moderate and win the primaries, he has a very good chance.

Yeah. Seems about right until you realize how tsundere Republicans are all the time every time.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Virginia Governor's Race 2013 on: May 05, 2013, 01:35:55 pm
I support and would vote for Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he'll win.  He's too extreme on social issues, and as such, will get creamed in the DC suburbs and seal the election for McAuliffe *gag*.

I'd be shocked if Cuccinelli didn't move to the center (at least in terms of appearance) for the election. That being said, I don't think it'll be enough.

McAullife isn't a perfect candidate by any means (i.e. his resume sucks), but nothing suggests he's actually that weak. He won't bleed minority support. He appeals well to wealthy (and Democrat-leaning) Northern Virginians. Hyper-lefties ain't gonna go and vote for Cuccinelli. Seems like the generic Democrat who fits Virginia well. I think he's got it.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-Gov: McAuliffe left child's birth for WaPo dinner on: May 05, 2013, 01:05:48 pm
Oh come on guys. As someone said above, when you read the context it's not that bad. And yeah, the father isn't always present for the birth. My project manager at work was out of the room when his wife gave birth two years ago. If this is the worst thing that can be dug up about McAuliffe then he's a swell guy.

Seconded. I have a lot of problems with McAuliffe (I'm shocked that the Dems can't do better), but this is a really weak, asinine attack line to use.

However, I do suspect it will work. Even if the result is pleasing, the process still feels slimy.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Malaysia election 2013 on: May 05, 2013, 01:00:29 pm
Not sure what to feel. I honestly like Najib more than Ibrahim even if I'm not a fan of the BN at all. Maybe Najib gets a mandate within his party?

I'm going to be a pessimist though and not be surprised if he gets canned in an inter-party coup.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Virginia Governor's Race 2013 on: May 05, 2013, 12:56:03 pm
Whatever, though. I just wanted to get that off my chest. He gets under my skin in a way noone on this site ever has. I'll move on now.

Translation: My feelings validate my statements.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Carter win the Southern white vote in 1976? on: May 05, 2013, 12:53:40 pm
I'm not sure if Carter won the white vote in Kentucky/Tennessee.

For one, those historically were the most Republican of the southern states, Tennessee moreso than Kentucky.

Kentucky was a union state for a reason, so yeah.

And Eastern Tennessee has always been a Republican stronghold. The place voted for Lincoln! Tennessee was always Democrat-leaning, but in good years, Republicans could take the state. The rest of the South usually wasn't like that.

Kentucky was 7.8% black in 2010, so we can safely assume that it wasn't that different (probably less) in 1980. If only 1000 Kentuckians voted then they would roughly split as 527 to 456. Even if we say 80 of these 1000 are black (ignoring turn out etc) and we have them voting 80% Carter that still leaves Carter winning the remainder 463 to 440. Basically there weren't/aren't enough blacks in Kentucky to change anything.

Actually yeah, looking at that, you're right. Kentucky whites voted for Carter, interestingly enough.

Looking at the results in Tennessee, Carter might have pulled it out there as well, which seems remarkable.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Conservatives and climate change on: May 05, 2013, 12:51:13 pm
What is the proper response to climate change seen from a conservative POV. Should you try to "conserve" the present climate or is it too "big government"?

Push for solutions that undergo reasonable cost benefit analysis as opposed to EVERY GREEN PROGRAM IS A GOOD IDEA SCREW INDUSTRY.

More or less Bjorn Lomborg's position, which I suspect you're familiar with.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona GOP blocks gun buyback programs, because neener neener. on: May 05, 2013, 12:44:27 pm
Welcome back to the Forum, koenkai!!!

Thanks. Got busy, but I have maybe two weeks to kill, so yeah.

Anyways, I think there's this assumption that if $xxx does something, $ (1000) * xxx will do 1000 times what it did. That does not seem accurate. Like any market, the amount of people willing to sell (their gun) are limited. If I had good reason to believe that I would be using my gun in the future, I probably wouldn't be bringing it to a gun buyback unless I already didn't want it. Gun buybacks are great at getting unwanted or broken guns out of people's attics, but it doesn't seem like you'll be getting the guns actually used for crimes unless you're willing to offer a huge price for them, at which point there are far better uses for that money - like hiring more police or fighting poverty.
23  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Gay Marriage Analogy on: May 05, 2013, 12:37:00 pm
Does a case have to be made against SSM? No one needs to prove "wrongness" (which seems like a bizarre argument to me). A positive action has to be made to make it happen. Current law doesn't "ban" same-sex marriage, there is simply no provision in some localities defining a same-sex union as a marriage. It's legally and socially incomparable to interracial marriage since those were expressedly prohibited (i.e., everyone understood that it was still marriage, but some people still opted to ban it). Which makes sense - race (and thus miscegenation) is a modern construct (much like SSM) so "interracial marriage" more or less was prohibited ex post facto.

It's very much more of a question of whether the state should revise its current definition of marriage (or have one at all), so deontological ethics (certain actions being "moral" or not) don't seem to be relevant. I'm mixed on whether the state should define marriage, largely because marriage as a contractual institution predates state definition even if the family is the model for the state and the state is the natural outgrowth of family.

On the other hand, SSM redefines the relationship between the state and the family into one between the state and individual, which seems like dangerous precedent (but something that has unfortunately probably already happened to many people if they're supporting the legal enshrinement of SSM).
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Am I considered a "libertarian"? on: May 05, 2013, 12:18:29 pm
I was never a huge fan of the PM's social scale. I got a moderately "socially liberal" score, which I largely disagree with. I'm not even sure how one gets a positive score on that.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Carter win the Southern white vote in 1976? on: May 05, 2013, 12:14:59 pm
I'm not sure if Carter won the white vote in Kentucky/Tennessee.

For one, those historically were the most Republican of the southern states, Tennessee moreso than Kentucky.

Kentucky was a union state for a reason, so yeah.

And Eastern Tennessee has always been a Republican stronghold. The place voted for Lincoln! Tennessee was always Democrat-leaning, but in good years, Republicans could take the state. The rest of the South usually wasn't like that.
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