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1  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest on: October 27, 2018, 01:45:58 pm
PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.
2  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest on: October 27, 2018, 11:15:17 am
The Senate was never supposed to be good for Democrats. It's the 2012 Obama reelection class that extremely overachieved that's up. Republicans have very little to defend (AZ and NV).

They should pick up a few seats.

This is becoming a f**king nightmare

Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4
I donít care. The senate is on a verge of a red wave and be filled with douchebags like Hawley
3  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6 on: October 27, 2018, 08:10:21 am
You are truly delusional if you think Kavanaugh helped the democrats. Even MSNBC is saying the GOP got a big boost from it. Americans like winners and democrats aren't winning anything lately. GOP is dominating all the political fights.

Most polls since things have calmed down say that the Kavanaugh confirmation has energized Democrats more than Republicans.
Yeah, that's why a lot of Democrat leads have been whittled down in most polls, because Democrats were more energized than Republicans when it came down to Kavanaugh.
4  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6 on: October 26, 2018, 07:25:21 pm
No, Mitchell is just one of those special Michigan pollsters. They had it at +9 three weeks ago and +13 in mid-September.

Stabenow (D, inc.)   52
James (R)               46


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf


Isn't Mitchell a Republican pollster? Let me know if it is so I'll put it in the title.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Politico: Dem Support Collapsing With White Suburban Women on: October 26, 2018, 04:43:07 pm
There's a reason all of these races that had a decent Democrat lead in swing suburban districts have turned into tossups. And trust me, it's not white Republican Suburban men who are Trump supporters.

The lynchpin of the Democrat 2016 strategy basically was suburban white women that don't like Trump. This article, backed up by the polling data, should not be discounted.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Democrats actually win the House *ON* election day? on: October 26, 2018, 02:30:18 pm
There is a minute chance of that happening before midnight Eastern, especially the way that they slowly count votes in California, Arizona and Washington state. There are going to be too many West Coast seats that are too early to call at that hour, even in a "blue wave" type election.

Remember, some close California Congressional seats do not get declared until days after the election is over in a regular cycle. These mail-in states like Washington are notoriously even slower in their reporting.

Further, even some of those seats on the East coast may be too close to call because they are going to absentees and recounts.

With how close some of these tossups are, I wouldn't be shocked if you still didn't know who controlled the House come morning on the East Coast and beyond.

The poll question is will the House be called in the Dems favor (218 or more seats) before midnight EST?

I wanted to make the distinction because they may win, but it might not be called until after midnight.

I vote "yes" but it may happen a little before or 11 PM EST or sometime between 11-12.

nine day poll

NO "IDK" option because I want you to guess.

If you're not sure that they will win (I am not but I think that they will) or if you think the GOP wins, vote "no".

As far as the Senate races some may be extremely close.

7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Menendez In Trouble? Cook Moves NJ Senate Race Into Tossup Column on: October 26, 2018, 12:45:19 pm
There's no such thread as you claim anywhere here.

This has already been posted, we don't need another thread.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Menendez In Trouble? Cook Moves NJ Senate Race Into Tossup Column on: October 26, 2018, 12:38:43 pm
Quote
The biggest threat to Menendezís re-election is not so much Hugin than it is the voter who goes to the polls and decides to send Menendez a message, much the way many did in the primary when 38 percent voted for his unknown primary opponent. There is certainly a thumb on the scale for Menendez, who is said to have a lead of between four and six points, in this very blue state, but the race is close enough to warrant a move to Toss Up.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-11-days-out-nj-moves-toss

My guess is Menendez still wins, but it's looking like it is way to close for comfort for him. He's getting pounded by allegations of him getting with underage prostitutes all over the airwaves.
9  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT UM-Big Sky: Tester +10 on: October 26, 2018, 12:28:38 pm
Safe D, GOP is wasting time in MT
How expensive can it be to advertise in Montana? It's not like it's like you're throwing money into the NYC/Philly TV markets like the GOP/PACs are with Hugin (and presumably Hugin himself to some extent).
10  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI EPIC-MRA: Stabenow +7 on: October 25, 2018, 12:37:15 pm
Outlier or not, the trend is for James right now. There has been appreciable movement in every poll by every garbage Michigan pollster away from Stabenow towards James in the past few weeks.

It likely will NOT be enough for James to pull off the upset. Real Clear Politics shifted the race from Likely to Lean D as a result of this poll, FWIW.

+23 lead to a +7 lead in a month? Oh.

For now, it's an outlier.
11  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV Benenson/AARP poll with 79% 50+ voters: Heller +1 on: October 25, 2018, 12:15:18 pm
No. It's a tossup in every definition of the word.

I am not saying Heller couldn't lose. He definitely can. However, as I have stated before: 1) Heller is an incumbent. Nevada likes incumbent Senators, generally; 2) Average margin gives a slight 2-point edge to Heller here per 538.

This state of the polling in this race is not even close to a lean D at this point. It's a tossup.

Others may have eaten up polls about the Latino vote looking "favorable" to Heller. I am not going to bank anything on a small subsample of any ethnic group for anything. I've consistently called this race what it is: a tossup.

Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.

You don't think a state that went for Clinton and elected a Democratic Senator in a pretty bad night for Democrats twice (2010 and 2016) is at least a Lean D state? Bush was the last Republican to win there nationally, and Heller held on by the skin of his teeth against a damaged opponent.

Heller could win, but that does not suggest Democrats are having a good night at all. It probably means at least R+4 in the Senate, and that Democrats are coming up quite a bit short in the House. It amuses me that people disregard polls like this, but eat up a poll showing Heller winning Latinos.
I have to agree with this. Most people on here act as if Nevada is a lean Democratic state, whereas I'm not so sure if it has reached that point. While I think Rosen will win, I also don't rule out the possibility of a narrow Heller victory. In my view, this race remains a tossup.
12  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV Benenson/AARP poll with 79% 50+ voters: Heller +1 on: October 25, 2018, 11:35:14 am
Oh the red avatars on here, trying to will a tossup race as anything other than a tossup, even going to the lengths of finding a sliver of hope in an old people poll conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 26. I get the enthusiasm and that you want to really win this seat, but... likely D, lean D, it is not.

Pure tossup and a race to watch late on Election Day. And, as it always has been, the most vulnerable Republican seat this cycle. Don't get ahead of yourselves using what basically is an old poll conducted over a way too long period. Keep that celebratory champagne on ice.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who Won The CBS NY Governor's Debate? on: October 24, 2018, 12:31:25 pm
That debate was a train wreck. Cuomo was mean spirited throughout, even when given a softball unification question. Funniest part was when Cuomo attacked Molanaro for supporting Trump and Molanaro retorted, well, Trump wasn't at my bachelor party.

Either way, it won't matter, Cuomo will win by a hefty 20-30% margin.
14  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO-SEN: Hawley +7 in internal, McCaskill DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMED on: October 24, 2018, 12:17:02 pm
Hawley's got the advantage right now but this is an internal and McCaskill's a good closer. Still think AirClaire pulls this one out.

What suggests McCaskill is a closer? The only outfit to poll the 2012 race twice this late was PPP, and they had her lead shrinking.
McCaskill seems to always be vulnerable, but closes the deal somehow. With that said, this race still remains a tossup, perhaps slight edge to Hawley, which can be easily overcome.
15  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: UTDH +6 on: October 24, 2018, 09:28:22 am
I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

Quote
The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll was conducted online, in English, from Oct. 12 to 18. It surveyed at least 1,137 people in each state.

It's still a tossup either way. Rosen should be embarrassed if she loses.


It's because Atlas is assuming there will be a massive blue wave where Democrats win everything...except Nevada. Sound familiar?
I'm seeing more of a normal election than a blue or red wave at this point at least. Republicans gain in Senate only because of a course correction from the 2012 Obama class up for reelection.

Only question is whether there will be enough typical out-party midterm seats (in this case Dem gains) to actually take the House in any effective kind of way. A few seat majority for Rs or Ds (which is looking increasingly likely) is going to be very difficult to whip for either side.
16  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: UTDH +6 on: October 24, 2018, 09:16:47 am
I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

Quote
The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll was conducted online, in English, from Oct. 12 to 18. It surveyed at least 1,137 people in each state.

It's still a tossup either way. Rosen should be embarrassed if she loses.

17  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Rutger/Eagleton: Menendez +5 on: October 24, 2018, 09:07:41 am
The people of New Jersey accustomed to electing completely corrupt garbage politicians. Hugin doesn't even meet the level of Exit 13 on the Turnpike stink compared to most of them, like sleazy Menendez.

With that said, Menendez will still win, but probably by 6-10 points instead of the 15-20 points a Democrat normally wins by.

Bob Hugin is human garbage and the people of NJ will realize this and reject him. They more than anyone know the consequences of being governed by gutter trash.
18  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3 on: October 23, 2018, 11:31:42 am
College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

Quote
The mail-ballot poll of more than 2,000 registered voters, conducted during a three-week period in late September and early October, has an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percent.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesnít strike me as best practice
Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.

Does MT have restrictions on polling like IN and ND do, or are people just not that interested in it as a state?
I think it's just a tiny state population wise, so not so much on many's radar. Kind of like Rhode Island or Delaware rarely getting polled.
19  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI Tarrance Group (Internal): Stabenow +7 on: October 23, 2018, 11:27:56 am
Either way this race has been tightening. Don't be surprised on election night if Stabenow is in a neck to neck fight for her political career.
I will be. Even as a Republican as much as I like Mr. James, this race is only on the periphery of being actually competitive (aka likely D instead of safe D). For better or worse, Stabenow should win. An internal showing you "only" down 7 points means that it's a double-digit lead for your opponent.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MN-AG Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll: Wardlow +7 over Ellison on: October 23, 2018, 08:40:41 am
It's his ex-girlfriend AND his wife (later recanted by the wife).

I thought all victims should be believed? Unless it's a Democrat doing the beating, I guess.

http://www.startribune.com/ellison-ex-girlfriend-posts-medical-record-alleging-abuse/493785421/

Probably due to the Right's peddling of Keith's wife's allegations against him that turned out to be false. Sad.
21  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3 on: October 23, 2018, 08:33:25 am
College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we don’t have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

Quote
The mail-ballot poll of more than 2,000 registered voters, conducted during a three-week period in late September and early October, has an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percent.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesn’t strike me as best practice
Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.
22  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-OnMessage (R internal): Scott +5 on: October 22, 2018, 02:08:29 pm
Yeah, because Democrats never do that. Reading the tea leaves, this race is a tossup. Nothing really new learned from this poll.

Republican candidates have a primal need to believe they are winning and dominating, even when they arenít.
23  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IN SUSA: Donnelly +1 on: October 22, 2018, 12:43:55 pm
Indiana's laws I think. Part of the reason we don't get as many Indiana polls. It has something to with robocalls.

Since when does SUSA uses online-only polls? They're usually good. I guess it has something to do with IN's strange polling laws.
24  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol on: October 22, 2018, 10:11:05 am
Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

That interviewee fraud is so widespread should be a pretty damning indictment about where the United States is heading in the next twenty years. If that is the case. The point is that no one should see themselves as benefiting from poll interviewee fraud.  It's not a success story or anything to be proud of.
It probably works both ways and cancels things out, but my guess is it's simply just sample size and MOE that caused this discrepancy.
25  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol on: October 22, 2018, 09:33:47 am
Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.
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