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This is not a great poll for Biden to say the least

Croatia 2024:

HDZ+: 51 seats (-10)
RP: 38 seats (-4)
DP+: 14 seats (+/- 0)
M!: 14 seats (+4)
MOST-HS: 12 seats (+1)
NH: 5 seats (+1)
F-R: 4 seats (+3)
UZ-SU-BUZ-DSU: 3 seats (+3)
OiP: 2 seats (+2)
SDSS: 2 seats (-1)
SIP: 2 seat (+2)
HSP-HB-HDSS: 1 seat (+1)
RF: 1 seat (+1)
ZS-AnP: 1 seat (+1)
A-HSP: 1 seat (+1)
Minority Representatives: 0 seats (-5)

F-R [3.3437 quotas] gets the last seat over SDSS [2.3018 quotas] by 598 votes.

Independents splitting enough votes for 2 seats between many candidates, as well as all other minority parties aside from SDSS being too small to get in, makes the final seat elected on a small quota.

New parties:
PENSIONERS TOGETHER (UZ-SU-BUZ-DSU): Seems to be an alliance of single-issue pensioner's interest parties.
Determination and Justice (OiP): Split from DP, right-wing populist with a strongly anti-corruption bent.
Party of Ivan Pernar (SIP):  Right-wing populist outfit of former Human Shield leader Ivan Pernar.
Croatian Party of Rights - Croatian Pulse - Croatian Democratic Peasant Party (HSP-HB-HDSS): Grouping of right-wing to far-right parties led by the HSP, which has drifted farther right and ethnonationalist.
Worker's Front (RF): Left-wing, democratic socialist, left-wing populist, and anti-NATO.
Agrarian Party–Action for Change (ZS-AnP): Agrarians, not much else I can find.
Autochthonous Croatian Party of Rights (A-HSP): Far-right party who in 2017 had a rally in support of Trump where members waved German NDP (modern German nazi party) flags and shouted the phrase "Za dom spremni", used by the Ustaša in WW2 and often considered the Croat equivalent of Sieg Heil. Super far-right, if you couldn't tell.

While anything can happen when the House is so narrowly divided, it's reasonable to believe that 2022 was more or less the high water mark for the party under the current house map. The House is going to fundamentally favor Rs for as long as FL, OH, PA, NC, TX and WI are under their control for redistricting purposes. With NY, MI, AZ, and CA all under some form of an independent commission and MD/MA/NJ already maxed-out, IL isn't enough to match the Republicans redistricting power.

In what world is PA under Republican control for redistricting?

Also, if anything 2022 looks far more like a below average result for Democrats in terms of number of House seats under the current map.  It was an Atlas blue ripple in the House in a year where most erroneously predicted a Republican tsunami. 

Please stop trying to “prove” there’s an echo chamber by doing completely meaningless calculations. Thanks

It’s not really relevant either, but he could at least round off the trailing decimals on his meaningless calculations. Pet peeve of mine. A poll reports results to 2 sig figs, his “probability calculations” really shouldn’t be including 10 places after the decimal. Must be his superior IQ and ACT scores at work.

61%^8 = 0.0191707313% 0.02%

61% ^ 20 = 0.00005088581% 5.088581e-7%

Problem solved.

Excellent. My one-man crusade to increase knowledge of significant figures presses forward.

Doesn't the 2nd one still have too many or am I missing something?

It's progress. The two numbers that go into his calculation are 61% and the integers either 8 and 20. 61% has two significant figures, polls generally don't include decimals as they are not that accurate (unless the sample size is absolutely enormous). 8 and 20 are both integers and are exact quantities. The results should then have 2 significant figures each, 61%^8 = 0.019% and (61%)^20 = 5.1*10^-7%

It's something that doesn't matter much (particularly in an informal setting) but when you notice it can be a bit annoying. If people are going to police each other's grammar and make comments about each other's intelligence, I think this is also fair game to correct.

Spain: PSOE has confirmed who Deputy PM and Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera will be the lead candidate on the party' European elections.

In other parties, after the Basque regional election results, IU finally accepted the 4th place within Sumar' EP list who will be occupied by current MEP Manu Pineda, the list will be lead by Estrella Galán, current general director of the Spanish Commission for Refugee Assistance (CEAR), 2nd for the list is reserved to the catalan Comuns (former MP Jaume Asens), the 3rd for the valencian Compromís (designed by internal primaries) and Más Madrid getting the 5th. As everybody knows, Podemos is running alone with former Equality Minister Irene Montero seeking to get more than one seat.

Any news yet by PP' list, most likely Dolors Montserrat will lead again and probably integrate some former Cs members on it, speaking of Cs, former MP Juan Carlos Girauta will be at Vox' list after current MEPs Jorge Buxadé (party' deputy leader) and Hermann Tertsch meanwhile Jordi Cañas will try to keep Ciudadanos in the EP. On the nationalist camp, ERC MEP Diana Riba is leading the "Ara Republiques" list along again with EH Bildu and BNG, now enforced with the Balear Ara Més (former Compromís/Sumar ally), 2nd of that list will be catalan public regional broadcaster' weatherman Tomás Molina. With Puigdemont focus to return to Catalunya, the other Junts MEP Toni Comín is seeking reelection, whereas the PNV-led list is headed by a "new face", former Bilbao councilor Ohiane Agirregoitia. Among the extraparliamentary parties or new platforms trying to get representation it's getting some noise one with a controversial right-wing influencer and unfamous fake news spreader Alvise Pérez as well other ones also trying to cater the UPyD/Cs-liberal-centrist-unionist space like Izquierda Española or La Tercera España, also the España Vaciada localist movement has showed their intention to run as well.

Coalitions who want to run have until Friday to be registered, on the same day the Catalan regional election campaign starts.

As expected, Biden, and by a pretty big blowout margin. I'm feeling a lot more confident after those disastrous results for Trump in PA last night, so i can only say for certain Biden is still winning.

It really is just important to note how badly he did in early votes and VBM, not to mention the elephant in the room of Haley, still taking a large chunk of the party with her to Biden in November.

It won’t be a blowout for either candidate

I did not make a phone call to turn out people. That wasn't me.

With regards to the state of the game, i don't even think the game is to blame. If you notice the number of people that registered for the forum in 2016 compared to now, you'll notice a big issue and you have to consider that a lot of the game always relied on was newly registered people getting active. Eventually forums like these are a bit old-fashioned and new young people probably talk rather on discord or other social media about politics than internet forums which is a more of a 00's-10's things. Most people active here are ones that have been active for at least half a decade, some way more than that.

Few people back in 2016 were still participating in 2022. And a big reason for the 2020-2021 revival was lockdown and the pandemic. And YT having a wide connection circle on Discord for his elections.

This game is intensive, everyone needs a break or is at some point less active, barring perhaps a few exceptions. And burning out is easy. I'm no exception to that. Though in my case - there are other reasons as well that played a factor.

February 2023 also wasn't personal, like if you ran for your first term i probably wouldn't have opposed you but a lot of the game is about elections (probably the most fun part of the game), and I provided a competitive election. Labor - especially Pericles - also helped Tack at the time too, but without Peace it wouldn't have been enough.

A lot about the motivation was self-redeeming myself - because virtually anyone else didn't take me serious - and having a project or a goal in making Peace the most dominant party in Atlasia for a while and electing the first Peace president via an election which Spiral eventually did twice. Him and Tim are both what I consider atlasia institutions, you are as well ofc (you are a two term president too).

I didn't mention the phone call actually! But everything you've said here is closer to the mark than Wulfric and his intensely hyperbolic arguments, in terms of being a brick in the left wall rather than the only reason they succeeded.

It may be interesting to fantasize how the left may have succeeded if Laki was not present, but in the universe we live in, Laki, like in a game of JENGA, was the brick that would have proved fatal to remove throughout most of 2023, and that even into 2024 and Tim's bid for Presidency was highly influential. You can't look at to the extent to which Laki campaigned, and the big turnout drop in the first cycle in which they did not care, and presume Laki's absence did not play a role.

"If an opportunity involving a non-compete isn’t a given worker’s best option, according to that worker’s own preferences and values regarding the trade-offs involved, then the new legislation is useless because the worker wouldn’t have signed the non-compete anyway" (from the pro-non-compete argument that H/R linked) is not a sentence that was written in the real world.

The main reason they exist is to prevent an employee from taking companies clients with them as well . That’s the main purpose which is they should he reformed rather than eliminated

If the company the (former) employee is going to offers the clients superior service/products...wouldn't that just be the free market system working as intended?

Why give companies this weird shield against potential competition?   There's already such a dire need for competition between corporations right now anyway, this would be a net positive IMO.

Yeah, the argument against non-competes isn't that companies don't have a rational interest in insisting on them; obviously they do. It's that that is the company's poblem, not the former employee's.

This is the only realistic "NV tipping point" map.

That could work but I doubt Michigan votes to the right of Nevada this year.

Good poll for Trump for this pollster. They's been very pro-Biden. The last head-to-heads:

Biden +3 (march)
Biden +4 (feb)
Biden +6 (Jan)
Biden +1 (Dec)
Trump 2 (Nov)
Biden +1 (Oct)
Biden +1 (Sept)
Biden +1 (Aug)
Biden +5 (July)

The poll from Morning Consult / Bloomberg said that Biden's SOTU bump is fading and that the race is reverting to pre-SOTU numbers. This poll may support that conclusion

Qpac is doing some weird stuff with methodology, I'm pretty sure. I think they switched something up in January and have since hedged back towards what they were doing in 2023.