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He will very likely lose but he is not certain to lose. Atlas wants to dismiss edge cases, but a 98% chance is a 98% chance and those sometimes hit.

Forget 98%, it's really 99.9%. MD Republicans have a ceiling in federal elections, and even if Hogan hits that ceiling, it won't be enough for an outright victory. I'll be quite impressed if he comes within single-digits, even, but I honestly don't think he will.

No, it's more like 98%. Saying 99.9% is dismissing the edge cases. It's easy to boast that Hogan will 100% (or close enough) but Hogan is up too much and there are too few real comparisons to make any judgements. There's not much downside to making such a prediction since you will very likely be right that Hogan loses, but if the universe was simulated 10,000 times, I am pretty sure Hogan would win in more than 10 of them.

It’s pointless to argue with the statistically illiterate about these things.

In people’s minds, a 95% chance is basically 100% in low sample sizes because if they state with absolute certainty that the 95% thing will happen, they’ll almost always be right. And when they’re wrong they can always blame some external factor or whatever.

In higher sample size cases it is easier to discuss because people can understand that a few will go the other way. That’s why house races often are better vehicles for discussion: there are usually 20ish 90%-99% races each cycle, and generally one or two of those go to the underdog. It’s why people tend to make stupidly overconfident predictions for house races much less frequently than for senate or president.

This is a long-winded way of saying that I think Hogan has between a 95 and 99% chance of losing. We will have a better idea later in the summer / around Labor Day - the odds by that point will either tick lower (if he is still leading in the polls) or up to ~100% (if partisanship takes over and he starts trailing in the polls).

oh yeah, and if the results for the minority parties get absurdly high, i'll cut them down to keep things realistic. It's not like the Albanians are somehow going to win.

I disagree with parts of Beet’s post but overall he gave a decent synopsis of the feminist movement over the past 10 years.

An underrated aspect of 2020 is how Hollywood lost credibility in terms of leading social movements. Whether it was #MeToo, BLM or the general anti-Trump fervor the public no longer looks to Hollywood for moral leadership.

Pay attention to how few celebrities endorse for president this year.

If Hollywood had any credibility in leading social movements, Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place. Hollywood's been variably on the social back foot since the Fatty Arbuckle scandal.

I disagree with parts of Beet’s post but overall he gave a decent synopsis of the feminist movement over the past 10 years.

An underrated aspect of 2020 is how Hollywood lost credibility in terms of leading social movements. Whether it was #MeToo, BLM or the general anti-Trump fervor the public no longer looks to Hollywood for moral leadership.

Pay attention to how few celebrities endorse for president this year.

Electoral system:

President: 2 round system, where top 2 advance if the top candidate gets under 50% of all registered voters, not just those voting. 2nd round is invalid if turnout is below 40%.

Parliament: 123 seats, 120 from 6 20-seat constituencies by D'Hondt method, and 3 for Macedonians abroad, though these require the candidates to get more votes than the lowest-voted elected MP in the previous election. These seats were not filled in 2016 due to all abroad candidates getting less votes than the lowest elected candidate from 2014.

Candidates for President:
Stevo Pendarovski (IND): Incumbent President, endorsed by the alliance "For a European Future" which includes the social democratic SDSM, conservative VMRO-PP, social liberal L-DP and single issue pensioner's interests PnP. Pro-EU.
Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova (VMRO-DPMNE): Runner up in the last election, endorsed by the alliance "Your Macedonia" including the right-wing nationalist VMRO-DPMNE and socialist SPM. Eurosceptic, anti-Prespa agreement.
Stevčo Jakimovski (GROM): Mayor of Karpoš, and head of the liberal GROM party which split from SDSM, and ran in an odd coalition including the Macedonian branch of the Serbian Progressives, alongside the "Union of Tito's Left Forces" in a previous election. Endorsed this time around by the conservative INTEGRA.
Bujar Osmani (BDI): Minister of Foreign Affairs, running with the endorsement of many minority interest parties, mostly liberal leaning thought not completely, including half of the Albanian interest ASh, the Turkish interest DPT, and the Roma interest ZnR.
Biljana Vankovska (IND): University professor who has published several articles and has called for a new investigation into war crimes committed during the Yugoslav wars. Endorsed by the left-wing nationalist Levica.
Arben Taravari (ASh): Mayor of Gostivar. Running under his faction/half of the Albanian interest party ASh, and the endorsement of other, mostly conservative, Albanian interest parties like Besa and Alternativa.
Maksim Dimitrievski (ZNAM): Mayor of Kumanovo and founder of the left-wing nationalist ZNAM. Formerly from SDSM but left, possibly due to the SDSM becoming more pro-EU, and claims the first goal of his party is "the abolition of the Criminal Code, adopted under the "European flag"".

Parliament (only coalitions with seats or polling over 1% included):
For a European Future (ZEI): Alliance led by social democratic SDSM alongside fellow social democrats NSDP, green-liberal DOM, conservative VMRO-PP, social liberal L-DP, and single issue pensioner's interests PnP, along with some minority interest parties. Generally center-left and pro-EU.
Your Macedonia (TM): Alliance led by conservative nationalist VMRO-DPMNE, with support from the socialist SPM, serb minority party DPSM, NSDP split PODEM, leftist DS, Roma interest party ROM and several minor parties. Generally right-wing and Eurosceptic.
European Front (EF): Alliance led by Albanian interest party BDI alongside fellow Albanian interest parties PDSh, EDP, and ND, Turkish interest party DPT, Roma interest party ZnR, Bosniak interest party BDS, and a faction of Albanian interest ASh (which is currently undergoing a party civil war with 2 people claiming to be chair). Basically just minority interests, and pro-EU.
Self-Determination European League for Change (VLEN): Coalition of 3 Albanian interest parties, Besa, Alternativa, DD, and the other faction of the ASh. Most of their election rallies have been outside of the country, including Germany, Switzerland, and Kosovo. Albanian interests, more center-right than EF.
The Left (Levica): Running alone, Levica is left-wing nationalist, Eurosceptic, and part of the World Anti-Imperialist Platform. Has been described as many things by many people, including "left-right-populist" and "fascist" due to ultranationalist rhetoric against Albania and Bulgaria, and supporting Russia in Ukraine.
Brave for Macedonia (HzM): Alliance led by liberal GROM alongside conservative INTEGRA and Roma interest party PCER. Not really sure about where the coalition falls on the political spectrum.
Movement I KNOW - For our Macedonia (ZNAM): Left-wing populist and nationalist, seemingly anti-EU, described by party founder Maksim Dimitrievski as being "socially and economically left wing but nationally right wing".


72 hours.

Counting only those that did not run for reelection, which excludes people like Roland Burris, Martha McSally and John Walsh.

Kaufman is a standout.

Unfortunately the base Democrats need to win is not excited about the 2024 election. The turnout we need from the youth, Black voters, Latino voters seems to be the least enthusiastic in my lifetime.

 The only thing that might save Biden is women voters still being rightly furious about their healthcare and reproductive rights becoming a debacle thanks to the Republicans.

 

I don't see much happening aside from protests if Biden loses. If Trump loses, who knows what will happen. He has spent 4 years whipping his diehard supporters into a frenzy, so you may see some crazy things. Fortunately, Biden will be in office and will call up the National Guard to make sure a J6 attack doesn't happen again.

Nothing quite like a bunch of men having a good old chat about what went wrong with feminism is there, chaps?

Nothing like a pretentious Al post to remind you what topics you are and aren’t allowed to talk about.

Seems to be going well for Trump's lawyer today!

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1782781536305111113