Has Fox news declared its bias with the 2004 polls? Should we discount them

[nomorelies]

Take a look at the polls of these swing states.

In Florida
 Bush = 50% Kerry = 41%
In Ohio
 Bush = 47% Kerry = 43%
In Michigan
 Bush = 42% Kerry = 40%
In Pennslyvania
 Bush = 46% Kerry = 41%

So according to FOX news, Bush would win the 85 electorial votes from wins in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennslyvania. Now these polls aren`t realistic. Even conservatives will admit that Kerry will poll more than 40% in Michigan and 41% in Pennslyvania.

In case anyone disagrees with me and things that the FOX POLLS are "fair and balanced". I am going to offer you a wager.  $10,000 that Kerry gets more than what FOX polls by more than 5% of what FOX SAYS IN THREE OF THE STATES.

The poll in Michigan should be declared as biased. The poll in Florida is insulting to my intelligence and I cannot understand why Dave has put these polls in as real polls. These polls are just used for Bushs Conservatives agenda. Remember the New Jersey poll!!!! FOX is the Bush campaign channel. Did you see Bill O`Reilly last night get crushed for trying to build up the Whoopi Story! I am calling on you all to get this channels polls banned not because they are conservative. But because they are insulting to the statistics of theis forum. If you think that Kerry will poll 40% in Michigan then Bush should have this election sown up. FOX are biased and the polls should be erased from the forum.  

if someone could explain why we should include them then your view is welcome but please no conservative spin

[classical liberal]

FOX polls and robo-polls and Zogby's junk should all be dropped from the polls page.

[classical liberal]

of course, polls from 5 months ago should not influence the poll averages either.

[nomorelies]

The polls arent five months ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They were last month (JUNE 23RD bar one)

Rightwingnut - do you agree with the FOX polls in June? i could do with an extra $10,000?

Michigan 40% of the vote for Kerry, Bush up by 9% in Florida. NO OTHER POLLS THAT I CAN SEE ARE THIS BAD. THIS IS FAR TO RIGHT-WING? IS ANN COULTER POLLING?

[ATFFL]

The FOX/Opinion Dynamics polls do not push leaners at all.  In one sense, this is good because leaners have not made up their mind, that is why they are leaners.  On the other hand, not pushing leaners at all will generally skew results toward the right.  This is also why they hve teh highest percent of undecideds.

I still say the best way to run a poll is to push leaners and have seperate results with leaners and without and give a breakdown of how leaners break.

[MODU]

I think Nomo forgot his medication this morning.  In any case, you always have to look at the source of the polls and their raw data to get any sense of validity.  Remember our good friends at the LA Times their wonderful polls?  

tsk tsk Nomo.  Do what a good researcher does, and cast out the extreme highs and lows from any sample, and what is left is more accurate.  With that, you get Bush leading in Florida and Ohio, split on Michigan, and losing in Pennsylvania.

[nomorelies]

Tredrick - fancy a wager?

You think that FOX is a fair polling group? You dont see a trend that 4 major swing states all fall Bush. Even most Conservatives admit that a Michigan victory is looking slim at present. Come on there must be Conservatives out there that think that the Florida poll is wrong BUSH 9 POINTS HEAD, 40 POINTS KERRY ONLY POLLED.

Tredrick - you also say that the voters arent pushed. So what percentage is going to vote for Bush in Florida. If Bush got 49% of the vote when the voters werent pushed. what is he going to get if the other voters are pushed? 54? 55? 56? or do you live on the same planet that Newt Gingrich lives on (Bush will win 58 - 42)

[classical liberal]

The polls arent five months ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They were last month (JUNE 23RD bar one)

Rightwingnut - do you agree with the FOX polls in June? i could do with an extra $10,000?

Michigan 40% of the vote for Kerry, Bush up by 9% in Florida. NO OTHER POLLS THAT I CAN SEE ARE THIS BAD. THIS IS FAR TO RIGHT-WING? IS ANN COULTER POLLING?

I was talking about the M-D in Nevada from March that's still in the rolling average on Dave's poll page when I said polls from 5 months ago.  It was an afterthough addendum to my list of junk polls.

[ATFFL]

First, the pollster is Opinion Dynamics.  Fox does not run any scientific polls.  Fact's, they're a good thing.

Second, OD was one of the better pollsters in 2000.

Third, I would never wager on any poll from June to be accurate in November.  Anyone who would is an idiot.

Fourth, look at the other polls around the time of the FOX/OD polls.  Survey USA had Bush up 7 in FL,  a Detroit News/Mitchell research poll had Bush up 1 in MI a week later.  Other polls in PA had Kerry +1, so the polls were within the MOE of each other.   Unfortunately no other reputable firm had a poll in OH at the same time.

The results are a bit slanted toward Bush, but all are within the MOE, with the possible exception of FL, which was likely an outlier.

Learn how to properly read polls and compare them to each other.  Then you can pass judgement on which polls are good and which are bad.

[classical liberal]

I think Nomo forgot his medication this morning.  In any case, you always have to look at the source of the polls and their raw data to get any sense of validity.  Remember our good friends at the LA Times their wonderful polls?  

tsk tsk Nomo.  Do what a good researcher does, and cast out the extreme highs and lows from any sample, and what is left is more accurate.  With that, you get Bush leading in Florida and Ohio, split on Michigan, and losing in Pennsylvania.

The LA Times is junk too.  Also, when things are this close throwing out just the extreme numbers isn't sufficient. The garbage numbers that are within range should be trashed as well (ie, the LA Times showing Wisconsin as a 2 point race should be discarded).

[nomorelies]

the LA TIMES is a left wing polling group. but there polls dont have kerry winning in Missouri or in Wisconsin.

FOX HAS BUSH UP BY 9% IN FLORIDA

EVERY FOX POLL HAS BUSH WINNING. and the polls were all taken in major wing states. not one organisation has bush or kerry winning in Penn, Ohio or Flor. BUT fox has the bonus of also Michigan.

Outrageous.

[ATFFL]

the LA TIMES is a left wing polling group. but there polls dont have kerry winning in Missouri or in Wisconsin.

FOX HAS BUSH UP BY 9% IN FLORIDA

EVERY FOX POLL HAS BUSH WINNING. and the polls were all taken in major wing states. not one organisation has bush or kerry winning in Penn, Ohio or Flor. BUT fox has the bonus of also Michigan.

Outrageous.

That is not hard, since no other major firm has recently released polls for all 4 states.  

Do you know what an outlier is?  I am guessing not.  About 1 in 20 polls will be ourside the MoE.  No matter how good the company is they will just plain be wrong 5% of the time.  Gallup, Mason Dixon and every great firm suffers from this.

Now, considering every other poll is in the MOE of other major polls, except for the FL one (which is in the MOE of one other poll) what is more likely:

A- Florida is an outlier.
B- OD is a horrid polling firm.

[nomorelies]

Sorry to disappoint Tredrick - got through school with my math ability.

You want to talk about confidence intervals, - because the FOX poll would push close a 99% confidence interval. Maybe we should all make up some normal disturbution graphs and show how bad FOX is as a polling group.

Yes the Ohio poll is fair enough. But the Michigan and Florida ones should be discarded. But if you look at Daves polls Michigan is a toss up and FOX is one of four other polls that has bush up. one by Rassmussen. Two by the mitchell/detroit news group with very low numbers. Every other poll has Kerry winning. Look at ARKANSAS. that should be light blue. washington should be red

Fancy playing with some Calculus?

[Blue Rectangle]

Bush Approval in June:
Annenberg                    June 16-30    50%
CBS/NY Times                June 23-27    42%
Fox News                      June 22-23    49%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup June 21-23    49%
ABC News/Wash Post    June 17-20    47%

If Fox is so biased, why is Bush's approval right in line with the others?  If you want bias, consider CBS/NY Times--there's a winning combo.

[millwx]

The FOX/Opinion Dynamics polls do not push leaners at all.  In one sense, this is good because leaners have not made up their mind, that is why they are leaners.  On the other hand, not pushing leaners at all will generally skew results toward the right.  This is also why they hve teh highest percent of undecideds.

I still say the best way to run a poll is to push leaners and have seperate results with leaners and without and give a breakdown of how leaners break.

Yup.  Tedrick, you and I have had this discussion before.  Plain and simple... There is nothing "wrong" with the Fox/OD polls.  Personally, I strongly disagree with not pushing leaners.  But that is just a philosophical choice.  In this election cycle, at this juncture (though it has changed a bit in some states since the selection of Edwards) Kerry's support is "softer".  So, unpushed, some of his support will dump into the undecided bin.  The result, were the election held today (and barring major developments, which, of course, is possible, I expect election day to look much like today),  Kerry would pick up substantially more than Fox/OD shows.  But that's not because they are inherently biased or "wrong".  Their methodology simply "loses" a lot of Kerry voters to the undecided bin.

[millwx]

Bush Approval in June:
Annenberg                    June 16-30    50%
CBS/NY Times                June 23-27    42%
Fox News                      June 22-23    49%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup June 21-23    49%
ABC News/Wash Post    June 17-20    47%

If Fox is so biased, why is Bush's approval right in line with the others?  If you want bias, consider CBS/NY Times--there's a winning combo.

Actually, you're only looking at half a poll.  That's very misleading.  Fox/OD also does not push leaners in the approval ratings.  As such, it has a higher undecided here than any of these other polling firms (on average... I'm not necessarily speaking of June specifically... I don't have the numbers right in front of me).  The result is that Fox/OD's Bush unfavorables are, on average, considerably lower than other firms'.  I've posted on this before... in the favorability "gap" (favorable minus unfavorable) the long-term average shows Fox/OD running a few percent above everyone else.

Mind you, though, I'm not saying they're bias!  It seems very plausible, especially in a time of war (which we've been in for the majority of Bush's presidency) that those who hold an unfavorable view of his job performance are far less likely to voice it than those with a favorable view.  So, some of those unfavorables dump into undecided.  It's a function of them not pushing people to pick.  Nonetheless, the Fox/OD Bush favorability gap is larger than other polling firms' results.

[Blue Rectangle]

True, the disapproval ratings show Fox with less in common with the others, although +5 in the Fox poll is not way off when compared to Annenberg (+3) or even the CNN poll (+0).  CBS with -9 is insane.

The head-to-head matchups are similar: Fox shows Bush's percentage to be similar to the others, but Kerry's support is less than average.  Sounds to me like Fox's polls are just fine, as long as you concentrate on Bush's absolute numbers and don't read to much into point leads.  It's similar to the difference between registered and likely polls: likely polls should, in theory, produce a better measure of an election, but the methods used to extract likelys may introduce additional errors.

In any case, it is worth noting that Opinion Dynamics is the polling firm and that they also do polls for Harvard and for Planned Parenthood (hardly right-wing organizations!)

[Smash255]

True, the disapproval ratings show Fox with less in common with the others, although +5 in the Fox poll is not way off when compared to Annenberg (+3) or even the CNN poll (+0).  CBS with -9 is insane.

The head-to-head matchups are similar: Fox shows Bush's percentage to be similar to the others, but Kerry's support is less than average.  Sounds to me like Fox's polls are just fine, as long as you concentrate on Bush's absolute numbers and don't read to much into point leads.  It's similar to the difference between registered and likely polls: likely polls should, in theory, produce a better measure of an election, but the methods used to extract likelys may introduce additional errors.

In any case, it is worth noting that Opinion Dynamics is the polling firm and that they also do polls for Harvard and for Planned Parenthood (hardly right-wing organizations!)

Most of the Fox/OD polls have been decent, although it does strike me as odd that Fox/OD has been the only polster not to have Kerry ahead in the 3 way at any time.  Regardless most of the Fox/OD Polls have at least been close, but their June 23rd Poll was utter & complete junk