Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TomC]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article222495590.html

“RALEIGH
The chairman of the North Carolina State Board of Elections has resigned, Gov. Roy Cooper’s spokesperson confirmed Saturday.

The Washington Post reported Saturday that Andy Penry had stepped down as leader of the nine-person board, saying “he did not want his partisan views to undermine a widening investigation into alleged election fraud in the 9th Congressional District race.”

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article222495590.html#storylink=cpy

[TomC]

Here’s where I’m having trouble with the math: is this about the high number of ballots FOR Harris or is it also about the number of ballots requested but not turned in? Were ballots being changed, collected and not turned in, or both? If ballots were collected but not turned in, it means we can’t only look at the numbers FOR Harris to determine if fraud took place but also consider that votes were destroyed which broadens the possibilities it could have impacted the numbers. And if a Harris vote was changed to a Dem vote, that changes the margin by 2, right?

Do the completed absentee ballots show who they belong to? Does it only depend on a legible signature? What do we think investigators will do? Contact each absentee voter to see if A. They turned one in B. How they turned one in. C. If it still reflects how they voted (was it altered?)

[TomC]

Here’s where I’m having trouble with the math: is this about the high number of ballots FOR Harris or is it also about the number of ballots requested but not turned in? Were ballots being changed, collected and not turned in? If ballots were collected but not turned in, it means we can’t only look at the numbers FOR Harris to determine if fraud took place but also consider that votes were destroyed which broadens the possibilities it could have impacted the numbers. And if a Harris vote was changed to a Dem vote, that changes the margin by 2, right?

Do the completed absentee ballots show who they belong to? Does it only depend on a legible signature? What do we think investigators will do? Contact each absentee voter to see if A. They turned one in B. How they turned one in. C. If it still reflects how they voted (was it altered?)

It's suspected that the Harris campaign may have both illegally filled out absentee ballots AND destroyed absentee ballots for McCready. I assume they will be speaking with individual absentee voters, because there are affidavits from voters that the Harris campaign took their absentee ballots.

AFAIK there is no way to determine a ballot was returned by a specific voter, which makes C moot.

Makes sense. I know one of the affidavits talked about it not being signed so wasn’t sure how identifiable it was.

It would *seem* that in Bladen, due to the lower return rate for Republicans, it’s less likely Dem ballots were destroyed, which would inflate Republican turnout. Whereas Robeson is the opposite, with high Republican return numbers and a high rate of ballots not returned overall. So either ballots were destroyed or they planned to work Robeson the same way they did Bladen, and got lots of requests for ballots in, but didn’t follow through as much collecting them.

[TomC]

Though it would seem they have to know who a mail in ballot is coming in from as they keep records of who votes. Maybe it’s on the envelope outside and not identifiable where the votes/choices are made, but for verification purposes, it would have to be somewhere. So they should be able to ask those who requested if they returned, just not if it has been altered.

[TomC]

No, mail it in or take it in. No one should be handling them other than Election officials and they shouldn’t be going to peoples houses to get them. There are restrictions; they were violated here resulting in a fraud investigation.

[TomC]

No, mail it in or take it in. No one should be handling them other than Election officials and they shouldn’t be going to peoples houses to get them. There are restrictions; they were violated here resulting in a fraud investigation.

We're talking about hypothetical for states where it is legal for people to pick up ballots and deliver them for others.

Gotcha, this is what threw me off, or what I was reacting to in what you bolded.

OTOH, "ballot harvesting" is not even legal in North Carolina and it still happened, so whether its' technically legal or not may not be that important when it comes to fraud.

[TomC]

https://popular.info/p/man-at-center-of-north-carolina-election

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There’s more, too...

[TomC]

Has anyone pointed out these mail-in results yet?

whats the other county data. It looks suspicious but I would need to see it next to the other counties.

I would think getting 96% of the absentee by mail vote would be suspicious regardless. Nonetheless

https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=05/08/2018&county_id=0&contest_id=1547

Of course, there's no Democrat involved in the GOP primary, so how cold it possibly be fraud?

[TomC]

What jumps out at me are the turnout differences in Bladen and Robeson (for the primary.) Higher than average. Whereas, in the general, Robeson (where so many absentees didn’t get returned) is much lower.

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

Do we reallly know this illegal activity is attributable to the Harris campaign though? If it was done in 2016 as well for a different Republican challenger, it just as easily be a local group of hyper-partisans.

Is it attributable to Harris himself? I can’t say. McCrae Dowless worked for that challenger in 2016 and then Harris this year. He’s been convicted of fraud (insurance scam) and testified before the state BOE and implied he was involved in fraud in the 2016 election. Read the article on the previous page.

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

I have no idea why I quoted you. I apologize for that.

Harris is from Charlotte. The senate candidate was from Brunswick County, albeit on the coast. The representative is from Bladen County (Dublin) and was previously elected as a Democrat. You would expect that.

A county commissioner who had run as Democrat before, ran as a Republican and won with 65% of the vote.

The black population of Bladen County is 38%, You don't start knocking off white Democrats in the primary and expect not to push the county into the Republican column.

The number of total votes cast in Bladen County (in NC-9) relative to 2016 was higher than any other county in the district outside of Mecklenburg.

If all those ballots were tossed in the trash, the high vote anomaly would be even higher.

Are there other places in the US where absentee votes are expected to favor Democrats by 20%? !?!?!  From a Texas perspective that is the anomaly.

No, agreed about Bladen ballots- they weren’t placed in the trash, they were turned in. The anomaly is that Bladen had a comparatively LOW percentage of Republicans turn in absentee (and, in turn a high percentage of Dem and unaffiliated), yet in absentee votes cast, Harris cleaned up and had an unexpectedly high percentage of non- Republican votes. That definitely implies either many Dems and unaffiliated voted for Harris in much greater numbers OR someone completed or changed the ballots. The affidavits certainly suggest the latter.

It’s Robeson with a high request rate and high number and percentage of ballots not returned (two anomalies) that suggests ballots were thrown out.

[TomC]

No, agreed about Bladen ballots- they weren’t placed in the trash, they were turned in. The anomaly is that Bladen had a comparatively LOW percentage of Republicans turn in absentee (and, in turn a high percentage of Dem and unaffiliated), yet in absentee votes cast, Harris cleaned up and had an unexpectedly high percentage of non- Republican votes. That definitely implies either many Dems and unaffiliated voted for Harris in much greater numbers OR someone completed or changed the ballots. The affidavits certainly suggest the latter.

In 2016,

Democratic registration was 59.1%, Republican 15.3%, and unaffiliated 25.5%.

Roy Cooper got 46.1% of the vote.

This indicates that 22% of Democrats voted for McCrory, assuming that turnout was the same for all groups, and every Republican and affiliated voter voted for him.

Are you implying 2016 general could have been fraudulent, too, or that anomalies exist all over the place so there’s nothing wrong with the 2018 numbers? A “therefore...” or the like in some of your posts here would help. Unless you’re just throwing data out with no real conclusions relating to 2018.

The 22% Dem vote going to the Repub stands out but not nearly as much as the absentee data from Bladen and Robeson this year.

[TomC]

Those who are asserting the lead is insurmountable are only looking at the ballots turned in, not the ones not turned in. What the data and affidavits suggest are that in Bladen ballots were changed to benefit Harris. In Robeson, the markedly high request rate coupled with the low return rate and the low turnout rate suggests ballots were destroyed. Both of these things mean several thousand ballots could be in question. That’s more than Harris’ margin. Can the BOE ever be certain if the race would have turned out differently? No, and they don’t have to be certain.

The hacks who insist this is nothing need to be ignored. When it happens to the other party, we need to admit the truth and call it for for what it is. Repairing our democracy should be our #1 priority.

If we can sacrifice Al Franken for heavy, inappropriate flirting, they can sacrifice this shmuck for the sake of rooting out election fraud.

[TomC]

So who gets to decide the question about the election returns? Ryan’s house or Pelosi’s? Pelosi needs the new members to elect her and presumably Harris would be sworn in along with those new members. If he’s sworn in, he’d have to be removed, not refused.

[TomC]

"There are people who are registered Democrats in the South who don't always vote for Democrats" is not a meaningful reply.

Especially since the data comparisons are to other Southern counties.

[TomC]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070014297923833857

Read the thread: way worse than the first tweet implies.

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[TomC]

I’m thinking if I were an NC-9 Republican, at this point, I’d want a new primary, too.

[TomC]

It's been reported from knowledgeable sources in NC that if the NCSBE calls a new election, it will be a general election with the same candidates (Harris, McCready, and the Libertarian).

Yes, I was suggesting if I were a Republican there, I’d prefer the house refuse to seat, declare it vacant, so I could vote for a Republican other than Harris in the Special Primary. On the other hand, if I were a Dem I might want Harris to be the only Republican in consideration, as I suspect he’ll be easier to beat.

I’ve seen Harris say he should be seated (with investigation still going) but has he or a spokesman actually denied any involvement in Dowless’s activities? If he weren’t involved wouldn’t he issue a denial?

[TomC]

Harris supposedly got 96% of the absentee vote by mail in Bladen County. What is the precedent for scoring in the high 90s in absentee vote in a county that is roughly evenly split in a race that is roughly evenly split?



I'll take my answer off the air.

"There are people who are registered Democrats in the South who don't always vote for Democrats" is not a meaningful reply.

Huh? You are mixing things up.

Absentee Vote: Harris 61%, McCready 38%, Libertarian 1%
Election Day: Harris 59%, McCready 39%, Libertarian 2%
Early Voting: Harris 56%, McCready 43%, Libertarian 1%.

Note that the Early Voting location is in Elizabethtown, which is more Democratic than the district as a whole. While anyone in the county may drive to to the Elizabethtown it is less convenient. If one compares the election day turnout to population, that for Elizabethtown is depressed. One can drive or walk over to the library any day for about two weeks and vote, or wait until a particular Tuesday. Ealy voting cannibalizes election day voting.

The absentee voting is representative of the in person voting.

Are you confusing NC-7 with NC-9?

He’s talking about the primary, for which Dowless was also employed by Harris. See the image above?

Harris got 437 to 17. In no way is that representative of normal. And recall the candidate who got 17 votes was a sitting Congressman.

To add



Is the graphic that shows why the 61% figure in the general is an outlier.

[TomC]

https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV/status/1070044877298249728

Quite interesting!

Jeff Smith is portrayed as some sort of whistleblower in the general election.

North Carolina election-fraud investigation centers on operative with criminal history who worked for GOP congressional candidate

But in the primary election, Billy Ward, the candidate favored by Jeff Smith, got 55% of all his votes from absentee ballots. Jim McVicker, the  candidate supported by McRae Dowless got 92% of the election day votes, but only 55% of the absentee vote.

McVickers is the incumbent sheriff and this race would include NC7 house voters, where, I assume, Dowless wasn’t offered a $40k bonus. I think McVickers’ opponent was an African American man. Recall the African American woman’s affidavit where she had filled in two local races but left the others (including NC9) blank?

[TomC]

Do we think the large number of returned ballots means someone was filling requests out en masse from the voter rolls?

[TomC]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

Mecklenburg is more urban and less white. Absentee votes are smaller samples and I guess, without a huge absentee effort like we see in Bladen and Robeson, tend to be a more distinct type of voter and use absentee as intended. Young people away at college/in military, elderly with concerns about health care, not sure, but not as diverse a population as those who vote in person. It’s clear absentee is more Democratic than Republican. Except in Bladen. Why is that? (I know but...) can you bring yourself to say it?

ETA: with a higher ED % in Mecklenburg it’s going to be harder to replicate the same margin. Union is whiter and the absentee return rates is higher, that’s going to help the Republican’s margin,

[TomC]

Jimrtex- I’m loving your narrative technique: Pizza box under laundry? Goldmine! In earlier posts the down South repartee! LOL, man!

[TomC]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

This exactly. You aren’t overtly rebutting anyone or stating conclusions. You’re just trying to distract from data that is a pretty stark outlier by throwing a bunch of other data without openly analyzing it. Then you tell hypothetical stories that have no basis in data analysis. Cute but meatless.

I’m done.