dougrhess
Jr. Member
Posts: 442
|
|
« on: September 11, 2004, 02:59:09 PM » |
|
From Gallup, 9.7.04:
"Is this a significant bounce?
No. To measure bounces in historical perspective, we look at registered voters (because data were only available for registered voters in the summer of election years prior to 1996). This year, Bush only increased his percentage of the vote among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) by two points. To be specific, before the Democratic convention, Kerry led Bush among registered voters, 48% to 47% on the two-way ballot, and Bush now leads Kerry by one point on that ballot, 49% to 48%.
The average post-convention "bounce" among registered voters historically has been about five to seven points. So the bounces from both conventions this year have been significantly diminished from the historical pattern.
I don't believe that the fundamentals of the presidential race changed dramatically as a result of the Republican convention. Bush was already leading among likely voters prior to the convention. He has simply edged slightly farther ahead. "
|