Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[nolesfan2011]

Kemp up 48-46.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/landmark-poll-shows-tight-race-for-georgia-gov-divide-over-kavanaugh/i01BKbcxcBqSlV5ENZ2gRP/

Seems right based on internals I've done, very well could be a runoff

[nolesfan2011]

There's some GOP pollster spin on the EV numbers here. Any thoughts?

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-paper-brian-kemp-doesn-know-how-brother-law-makes-living/VWYc8uEIiPDkq5EjzdQn4L/

I'd say the EV data matches the polling relatively well, it's close but a slight GOP edge. Dems have conditioned themselves to think early voting is somehow amazing for them but there are actually plenty of good data points for the GOP to take from the numbers so far.

That said we'll have to wait until the weekend to see because a lot of lower income and working people/younger people can't vote until then

[nolesfan2011]

GA-06 poll from JMC and Bold Blue is out

Handel 49-45 on McBath
Kemp 47-45 on Abrams

Trump underwater at 45-51 approval and the generic ballot is 48-39 GOP

https://www.scribd.com/document/391417199/GA-06-Polling-Memo-Karen-Handel-vs-Lucy-McBath-October-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns-with-JMC-Analytics-and-Polling

[nolesfan2011]

GA-06 poll from JMC and Bold Blue is out

Handel 49-45 on McBath
Kemp 47-45 on Abrams

Trump underwater at 45-51 approval and the generic ballot is 48-39 GOP

https://www.scribd.com/document/391417199/GA-06-Polling-Memo-Karen-Handel-vs-Lucy-McBath-October-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns-with-JMC-Analytics-and-Polling

Do you think the two races are actually this close to one another, or could there be a little bit of room for error here? I would have expected an Abrams plurality/Handel majority personally (but maybe crossover voting is minimizing here). Either way, I guess it's all within MoE.

It is all within MOE (both 06 and 07 are VERY close for Governor and both plurality rn (no one has 50%+)

That said, the 7th is less white than the 6th and my finding is that the GOP is still holding up better in areas that are more white than rapidly diversifying districts.

The crossover voting Handel+Abrams was pretty minimal actually which is either good for McBath if you expect an Abrams surge, or good for Kemp if you expect Handel to carry the ticket.

Either way the anti Trump sentiment in both is still very real

[nolesfan2011]

Dem turnout has straight up tanked in the runoff. Not surprised given the previous runoff examples, Abrams making everyone wait with her lawsuits, and the fact the state party basically laid off all their field staff and kept a bare bones operation.

Some Runoff EV vs 11/6 EV data comparisons by legislative districts

HD-151 (South GA black belt)
11/6 EV (final)
48% White voter pool
11/29 EV for runoff
63% white voter pool

HD-99 (Gwinnett, most Hispanic LD in the state)
11/6 EV (final)
35% white voter pool
11/29 EV for runoff
51% white voter pool

HD-124 (Augusta, in Barrow's old CD)
11/6
36% White
11/29
44% White

HD-66 (Douglas/Paulding dem leaning marginal LD)

11/6
42% white
11/29
56% white

As a bonus

The most Democratic CD's in the state (CD-04 and CD-05 in Fulton/Dekalb/Gwinnett) have cast 36,000 runoff votes

The most Republican CD's in the state (CD-09 and CD-14 in North GA) have cast 43,000 runoff votes

For 11/6 EV it was
292,000 in the Dem CD's and 257,000 in the Republican CD's (which are smaller by population)

[nolesfan2011]

To non-ATL Metro Georgians, is Barrow still running that “Yeah I’m a Democrat, but I won’t bite ya” ad? It has ceased to exist here.

The irony is the dem vote dropoff appears to be even worse in non metro areas compared to urban ones for the runoff

[nolesfan2011]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1069436677981122560

Seriously Georgia Democrats?! WTF!

This situation was complicated, the "Democrat" lied about filing and didn't show up when she was supposed to, she was a Republican plant

[nolesfan2011]

DeKalb is 100% in, Barrow won it 85/15. Better than Abrams, actually.

data glitch, not fully in

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams met with Schumer and Cortez Masto yesterday about running for Senate. I don't see her saying no to DC

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams is launching a “Thank You” tour in Albany on Monday (she launched her Gubernatorial campaign there). I’ve never heard of such a thing.... is she really about to go through with a Senate run?

she can't say no to DC, she's running

[nolesfan2011]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

I see no way that Isakson runs for re-election. From a personal standpoint regarding his own health, he really shouldn't have even ran again in 2016 (pre-diagnosis, I remember thinking "he must be dying because his appearance went downhill very quickly"); I'd say there's a greater than tiny chance he doesn't even make it through this entire term.

If there's any structure worth saving in the GAGOP anymore (and after a close 2018 race), then they're going to want to put their energy into somebody who's relatively young, telegenic, not prone to gaffes, and who is moderate by Georgia Republican standards. Of those with current positions of prominence, there's only one who fits the bill.

Maybe also Rob Woodall assuming he wins reelection in 2020.

On that note the first GA-07 candidate jumped in today

https://www.georgiapol.com/2019/01/21/marqus-cole-announces-for-ga-7/

I expect at least two more to follow pretty quickly

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams is probably running for Senate

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stacey-abrams-retools-her-dark-money-group

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams is increasingly open to challenging Perdue but still prefers a rematch.

Hyping up her ego and suggesting the election was stolen is exactly the wrong message she needs to hear if she's going to win a Senate race against Perdue though. There needs to be some accountability